Unconventional Wisdom

Random thoughts post trade deadline:

It’s no secret I wanted the Dodgers to get Ken Giles and I wanted Noah Syndergaard too. Yes there was a report that Giles was still dealing with a nagging arm issue, whether or not that is true I don’t know, it could have just been trade deadline BS.

Well the Dodgers didn’t get either one, but that’s alright because the positive part of the trade deadline was that the Dodgers did not trade any of my untouchables. I’m a bigger fan of developing your own prospects rather than trading them away for something that might not work out, but not all prospects will make it to the big show, so I’m all for trading some prospects just depends on which ones.

My untouchables as far as prospects are concerned are Lux, May, Ruiz, Smith, Gonsolin, Hoese, Peters, Kasowski. I’ll briefly explain why:

I see Lux as our future 2B, almost everyone if not everyone will agree with this one.

I see May as a future starting pitcher, glad to see him being called up.

Smith well our starting catcher.

I see Gonsolin as at least a future reliever if not a starter.

I see Hoese as our future 3B when Turner’s time is up, Turner is getting up there in age but he is still damn good. This one is probably a long ways away but still.

I see DJ Peters as a future outfielder, the last piece of the puzzle in the outfield along with Bellinger and Verdugo. This probably has consequences for one of my favorite Dodgers Joc Pederson and consequences for AJ Pollock.

Call me crazy but I see Kasowski as a CANDIDATE for the future closer spot and if he doesn’t become the future closer, I see him as at least a very solid reliever.

Last is Ruiz, and I’ve gotten negative feedback from people here on this one. I see Ruiz and Smith as our catchers of the future and present (Smith present). Smith can play 3B too from what I have read. Let me ask you a question would you rather have 2 offensively productive catchers or would you rather have Smith and a Barnes type that hits about .220 or worse? Also assuming both can hit, I don’t see why they can’t be used in an about 60%/40% scenario, catching is a position that takes its toll on the body, so wouldn’t you like to extend Smith’s career as a Dodger catcher by not worrying about losing some offense in the catching spot by giving him plenty of days off with Ruiz? What if Smith gets injured, do you want a Barnes type starting for however long it takes to get Smith back? Yes there’s that pesky thing called free agency, but I’m thinking positively.

I maybe wrong on some of that above and I may be wrong on all of that above (highly doubt wrong on all of that) but the future is bright for the Dodgers and I still think we are the favorites in the National League to go to the World Series. I think the Houston Astros are the favorite in the American League. A 2017 rematch is brewing, lets hope the final result is different this time.

I guess I’ll comment on who the Dodgers got. Its obvious that the Dodgers are looking at the post season and letting Freese, Taylor and Hernandez get 100% healthy instead of rushing them back. That is why they got Gyorko, Negron and White, but also to give Turner plenty of rest when needed. I don’t expect much from these guys but you never know when it comes to Friedman. I knew a loogy was coming, about a month ago I made a prediction the Dodgers would get Diekman, well I was wrong on the name but right on the role (a loogy). I can’t believe Kolarek got past me when researching for loogies. Put Kolarek together with either Floro or Maeda, most likely Floro unless number crunching keeps Floro off the post season roster and you got a guy tough on left handed hitters and a guy tough on right handed hitters that combined can eat an inning.

As for Vasquez and Smith the pitcher, I figured they wouldn’t be traded that’s why I ignored them in the discussions here for the most part. And if Smith was on the market I figured the Dodgers and Giants would not make a trade, they hate each other. As for Greene, this is his first year pitching good, lucky? I’ll pass, although I admit I thought about it but it didn’t take long to conclude I’ll pass.

I’ll leave you with this, cheers to the mostly home grown Dodgers and the next World Series champions.

If I were the Dodgers, I would start to have Beaty what is it called take reps at 3B along with 1B although he already looks pretty good at 1B. Turner is going to need a back up next year when he needs rest and I really like Beaty it’s just that all the positions are going to be permanently filled once Lux gets 2B and when DJ Peters arrives. Does Beaty have a solid throwing arm?

I am fine with not making moves yesterday. There was really no one out there who would improve us.

We have a great starting rotation this year. Ryu, Buehler, Kershaw, I think they match up pretty well against any other “big 3” including the Astros.

I would put Urias and Maeda in the bullpen, and along with Kelly and Jansen and (god help me) Baez, I think we have a pretty good bullpen.

Mark you were right about Plaschke, and his condemnation of Friedman! What a loser Plaschke is. Every time he “anoints” a team, I put them in the losing column.

Offense will have to be better because in tight games it will be hard. Need also to score more runs and also pitch well but hopefully someone will step up and Jansen at least would be decent. I think Jansen in playoffs has been good but on both WS he has been horribly bad. Lets hope first to reach the WS Again !! Also if Maeda goes to bullpen lets hope he is the 2017 version and not 2018. Do you think Lux, Peters will also be called up eventually ?? And please no more JOC at 1b !!!

I’m happy that none of the top prospects were traded. Good for AF for sticking with his guns and not being bamboozled by the Pirates or any other team. Now it’s up to the players to step up and recapture that elusive championship.

If the Dodgers win it all, it will be credited to the players.

If they don’t, it will be Andrew Friedman’s fault.

Just ask that Fish Hack Plaschke!

Houston Mitchell with an AF quote:

”We feel we’ve got a team and depth in place to win a championship,” he said in a conference call after the deadline had passed. “As we spend time kind of laying out what the prospective bullpen looks like in October, we feel good about the talent we have in house. Now it’s all about syncing it up and putting together the unit in a way that is a real asset for us. Now we’ve got to figure out the right combination of guys and we’ve got two months and lot of really talented arms.’’

Great Read in the Athletic:

In part it says:

At the trade deadline, the Dodgers opted to rely on the pitching within their organization rather than that outside of it. They declined to pony up for elite, established relievers like Felipe Vázquez and Edwin Díaz, instead placing a significant bet on Joe Kelly, Kenley Jansen and others in their organization to find steady form by October 3.

The team’s No. 2 pitching prospect, Tony Gonsolin, flashed his relief potential in a Tuesday save, and the team’s No. 1 pitching prospect, Dustin May, will reportedly make his major-league debut Friday. Many big-league evaluators believe both pitchers have a better chance to impact the Dodgers’ playoff chances than the two players they traded for Wednesday.

I thought AC might be interested in this position:

Dodgers 2019 WS Champions !!

I wanted Vasquez, but not at any cost. I mentioned previously that I was on the fence about including Ruiz given that I have never seen him. And the same goes for other prospects. Without seeing those players first hand makes it impossible for me to arrive at a definitive conclusion.

What I do suspect is that Friedman believes in taking a long term perspective, and that while he wants a championship this year, he will not do anything that throws the Dodgers off-course from the objective of competing EVERY year. He’s not only smart, but young. Hence his long term perspective.

I suspect that over the next couple of months that the Dodgers will begin to integrate young players like May, Gonsolin and Lux, and use that time to determine which, if any, of them will play a post-season role.

As for who will play where in the future, I believe that whatever any of us speculate, performance over the next few years will determine the outcome. If we’ve learned anything, it’s that the best laid plans generally go awry.

I will predict that the Dodgers will have 4-5 rookies on the Playoff Roster:

Smith

Verdugo

Gonsolin

May

Maybe Lux

That might be unprecedented for a team who has been to back-to-back World Series.

I don’t think Plaschke was that hard on him. If Lux was the sticking point, than I agree with standing pat.

No bullpen arms that clearly moved the needle were traded, but sadly, our biggest need wasn’t addressed. We will never know what was offered and refused vs what was requested. Smith, Diaz, and Vazquez were the only clear cut difference makers and they all stayed put.

Greene has a lot of saves on a crappy team with a sterling WHIP and ERA, but his FIP sucks making him a regression candidate. Melancon looks pretty average and isn’t a clear upgrade. I’m not sure anyone else outside of Dyson was a clear upgrade to the arms that we already have at our disposal.

What we already have… Gonolin came up and said “I got this” at Coors Field no less. GT is up next. Who knows? Maybe Sheffield comes up and becomes K-Rod. They can all turn out to be better than the Greene’s, Melancons and Dysons of the world.

This was the worst / craziest trade deadline I can remember. Now, it’s time to move on.

I’m excited to watch Ginger Thor tomorrow.

Friday is May Day!!

Physician heal thyself! I too feel (hope) we have the pieces to win it all. The cup is half full!

Love to see the kids come up and produce. May Day, May Day!

1. I will repeat. I was never an advocate for Felipe Vazquez because of the cost. It was clear that Pittsburgh never wanted to trade him, and held out for highway robbery. Neither Huntington or AF blinked, and both teams are happily walking away without a deal. So am I. I do NOT believe that the Dodgers will now lose the WS because they did not trade 2 of the top 4 prospects plus others for Vazquez. I have always believed that the Dodgers CHANCES would be improved if they got an additional 1 or 2 high leverage late inning setup type relievers. They did not, but that does not mean they will lose to Atlanta or Chicago or St. Louis in the NL or Houston, NYY, Cleveland, or Boston in the WS. And getting Vazquez would not have guaranteed those positive results either.

2. I was not for Diekman or any other John Axford/Zac Rosscup/Ryan Madson level of reliever. If the team could not get a legit late inning high leverage reliever, then I agree…pass. Next man up.

3. While KJ is not nearly the same KJ we saw in 2017 and prior, he is still an effective closer. He is no longer elite, but 25 saves and only 4 blown saves is not bad. Aroldis Chapman has one more blown save than does KJ. I do not believe most NYY fans want to dump Chapman.

4. I have never been an advocate for a loogy because that very much limits your bullpen. In 80 PA this year, Adam Kolarek holds LHB to a .187/.238/.293/.531 slash line. That is pretty good. Against RHB his line is .272/.356/.478/.834. That’s not so good. But the Dodgers have a pitcher already on the roster with 90 PA against LHB has allowed a slash line of .143/.191/.179/.370. It certainly appears that the latter has a better chance against LHB than the former. The latter pitcher is Pedro Baez. I am not saying Adam Kolarek is a bad pitcher, but he is only a loogy. To me, he is a less talented Scott Alexander.

5. Last year the best loogy for LAD in the NLDS and NLCS was this year’s fan pinata, Caleb Ferguson. He was in 6 games (NLDS 2 and NLCS 4). He pitched a total of 3 innings. He faced 10 batters, and did not allow a run or hit, 1 walk, and 3 strikeouts. He inherited one runner who did not score. I do not know how you get much better. This year has been a different story until lately. His last three games were more representative as to how he pitched last year. Including his last outing on Monday. Already down 6-0, he relieved Kenta Maeda with runners on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out. He intentionally walked the first batter, and then got a strikeout, flyout, and strikeout to end the inning. Perhaps he is finally healthy.

6. I was not one of those who said anything negative at all against Kristopher Negron or Tyler White. They are exactly the type of player that AF looks for. It did not cost much at all. But I do not expect to see either one on the post season roster. While both may help in the short term, it does not make the team better in the long run.

7. While you may be fine without the Dodgers making a move, to delegitimize what Houston did is naive. Zack Greinke made a good rotation even better. They now have 3 starters with a WHIP of 1.00 or better and an ERA of 3.00 or better. Their #4, Wade Miley also has strong metrics, just not at the Verlander/Greinke/Cole level. HR numbers in Minute Maid Ballpark are meaningless. While I do think they gave up too much, they are certainly the favorite to get to and win the WS in 2019. That does not mean they will, but they are certainly primed to do so.

8. One last thing, while I have always been an advocate for the Dodgers farm system, and growing from within, I do not look at what the players do at the AAA level and believe that translates immediately to success at the ML level. Otherwise why waste time in AAA?

I am not upset with what happened yesterday. Gonsolin looked good to me at Coors. So did Sadler. I just do not think Floro, Chargois, and Garcia will be in the pen come play off time unless one of them turns it up a notch. Urias or Hill will be the 4th starter. I hope it is Hill. I like his competitive nature. That would leave Urias for the pen and make the pen stronger. Good day to be a Dodger. I love the farm kids.

Let’s wait until the bullpen blows another 3-4 games and see the comments about AF and the trade deadline! No way all three of Lux, May and Gonsolin are on playoff roster. Maybe one of the pitchers

Good points AC. Agree with you. I am going to make a statement that will probably be disagreed with, laughed at and ridiculed by almost everyone on this blog. Here it is….I would have liked the Dodgers to get Greinke. (Ducking)

I was on the “get Grienke” bandwagon and even though the Dodgers were one of the 15 teams on his no trade list, I believe he would have waived that and gladly been traded to the Dodgers.

His contract, while exorbitant at the time he signed with the Diamondbacks is now “in line” with other big game pitchers and with the Diamondbacks providing some salary relief he would have been a good get. With the possibility Ryu and Hill don’t come

Back next year and with just two years remaining on his contract it would have made sense now and into the near term future.

Let’s hope Gonsolin and May contribute and can both be big arm contributors in the post season

Well, I think the Dodgers played on the elite bullpen pitchers, but none of them moved. The Pirates insisting on Gavin Lux was crazy. If I would have been the Pirates, I would have traded Vasquez straight up for Ruiz. How often do get you an opportunity to acquire a young switch hitting catcher who can hit? They’ll regret that. As to Bill Plaschke, he’s written similar columns in the past, criticizing the Dodgers for holding onto Cory Seager and Cody Bellinger. I was kind of hoping the Dodgers would pick up Chris Martin. Oh, well. As to Lux, ESPN analyst Keith Law called Lux an incredible talent who will be an all star second baseman for years. All things considered the Dodgers are in a great place moving forward. They have the pieces to win it all. They just have to perform.

I dont know about yall but im pretty excited about the debut of May this week!!

Regarding the Zach Greinke trade, no doubt it made Houston a better team against the rest of the league, but in my completely uneducated opinion, it made Houston more beatable by the Dodgers. He has pitched against us twice this year, giving up 11 runs in 9.2 innings. I haven’t checked the stats from previous years, but my impression is that we have traditionally hit ZG pretty hard since he left the chosen ones. I, for one, was cheering loudly when I heard about that trade yesterday.

The best way to look at the trade deadline is to understand who Andrew Friedman is. He is a value aggregator. He cultivates it. He collects it. He hordes it. As an investor, if you’re pursuing safe and long term growth, that’s the best strategy. After all, he is a former Wall Street guy, and if I’m socking away money in a 401k, there’s no one I’d want managing my money more than AF.

But is saving for retirement the best strategy in a competitive sports environment where the windows for winning at all are fleeting and transient? Even if you horde every prospect and carefully cultivate your long term success strategy, there are no guarantees the team continues to be in a position to make it to the playoffs year in and year out. The only constant is change, and, in the end, entropy rules the day.

AC has made the point that AF doesn’t value relief. I don’t think that’s it. I think they do value it for exactly what it’s worth. As several have pointed out already, and most of have come to realize, relief pitching is hard to predict, and therefore hard to value accurately. When a GM is doling out value to get value, relief pitchers are the volatile commodities of the baseball valuation world. They are the pork bellies, the orange juice futures, where a failed investment is one Florida cold snap away. Value aggregators look for market inefficiencies, but they also hate uncertainty.

The playoffs are uncertain. Anything can happen. AF banks on that and doesn’t want spend value to potentially increase odds in a small sample size. That’s a decent enough strategy if you’re the 2018 Dodgers and barely squeak into the playoffs, but if you’re the 2019 Dodgers and have the team of a lifetime and make the deliberate decision to go into the playoffs with a glaring weakness that you haven’t addressed, that’s an indication that the FO is content to sacrifice a WS to increase the odds they will continue to get to the WS. Gambling to increase your odds to win one year is not a sure bet. Neither is banking that you’ll continue to get there.

Lux for Vasquez is dumb, but the Braves got Green for crumbs. Not even a Nick Anderson? Inexplicable.

Kudos to Ryu for his outing yesterday. He had been absolutely destroyed at Coors during his career. I think 95% of the people on this board are excited about Ruiz including me, however dealing from a position of strength and depth for the probably the best reliever in the game to shore up a suspect bullpen would not have been a dope fiend move. Including Lux and from some reports 3 of the top 4 prospects would have been a dope fiend move. Mark, I think you underestimate Smith. Even if he’s a .230 hitter and I think it’s probably close to .250 if he’s playing regularly, he’s going to be a strong .OBP guy. His bat speed isn’t as slow as Yeager’s nor is his swing as long.

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I’ve listened to AF. They pushed for elite guys like Vasquez and none of them moved. The Pirates will be sitting in last place this time next year and could have had Ruiz + who knows what else. They didn’t over pay for a guy like Diaz who was struggling or Giles who just got a cortisone shot in his elbow and has Jim Johnson written all over him. Will Smith wasn’t going to the Dodgers considering if the Giants win a Wild Card game they would be playing the Dodgers. I hope the Giants lose damn near every game they play the rest of the season.

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As for Greinke, it was a bold move for the Astros. Let’s see if it works out. I get it since most likely Cole will be a Padre or Angel next season if not a Dodger. They needed a starting pitcher badly. Their farm system was already somewhat depleted and now very much so other than Tucker. The Dodgers were not going to take on $50 plus million dollars and give up prospects for him. Plus, Greinke has LA on his no-trade list so it would have cost even more since he had stated that he wanted to stay in AZ. I predict he gets hammered in the playoffs playing in those bandboxes against the Yankees. The Dodgers have lit him up quite a few times too.

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I look forward to watching May tomorrow. After listening to Freidman yesterday I’m starting to question whether or not we will see Lux in LA this year. They’re going to have to get Kike, Gyorko and CT3 up to speed when they return. He’s left-handed. They may not want to start his clock or move people off the roster. I hope we see Lux’s audition soon. I thought it was a sure thing until I listened to AF yesterday. The Dodgers may just spend the last 60 days figuring out to how to make the current roster work best for the post-season. Bringing up Lux to take someone’s spot may be a much tougher call than sending Austin Barnes down and hopefully getting Pollock out of CF.