Unconventional Wisdom

I think that the comments made above by Mark Timmons and others above are heartening. Maybe we do have the most amazing group of prospects ready to come in and take over baseball, though our farm system is not rated in the top three by those who do these things. I do know from many years as a Dodgers fan, that we tend to overrate our prospects. Maybe most fan bases do, but I think we are high in that category. If we just look at our more recent highly touted prospects, we see that the highly touted Pederson has devolved to a .240 hitter who can’t hit lefties. Bellinger looks like he is real star. Seager, supposed to be one of the greats, has been hampered by injuries, and we might actually lose him in a year or two to free agency. Buehler looks like a potential great pitcher. Urias suffered a major injury, and has not reached anything close to what his potential was said to be. Stripling looks like a #5 starter. Verdugo looks pretty good, but has his flaws. Then there are the ones we ended up letting go, like Zach Lee.

There are other franchises which do not do things the way we do. Some of them are certainly inferior to us, but then there are the ones which win coveted titles, which we do not. Houston once again decided to take a risk, gave up three high-end minor leaguers to obtain Greinke and Sanchez. Atlanta picked up three relievers, two of whom are pretty good. Chicago got a fine hitter in Castellanos, for not much. Washington landed three second-tier relievers. Even the Mets got a good starter. We got no high-end relievers, our biggest need, and no starters. How is that?

I would contend that most of it has to do with the ownership. We are run by a hedge fund, which clearly seems more concerned with the bottom line than some of the other franchises. We seem obsessed with staying under the luxury tax threshold, even though we have more than enough money and make more than enough profits to be able to go over it to some extent. We are preternaturally averse to picking up long -term contracts for expensive free agent stars, or in trading any of our high-end prospects. This all goes with the relative (as compared to assets and profits) penny pinching ways of the Guggenheim ownership. Hedge funds are primarily concerned with their overall bottom line, they own many corporate entities. They did not come into this as big Dodgers fans, but as businessmen looking for another profitable asset. I would actually have preferred that we had gotten an owner who was very rich, and who loved the Dodgers, and wanted to do whatever was reasonable to win multiple titles. We have an ownership which keeps raising ticket prices, and trying to lower payroll. This will also manifest itself in our losing some of these young stars to free agency, to be replaced by new cost-controlled prospects.

Any fan of a pro franchise is subject to the agenda of the ownership. It just seems pretty obvious that the Dodgers owners, while they would like to win, and certainly need each year to be pretty good, so as to maintain the attendance, are not driven to win titles like the ownership of the Astros, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, and now maybe Braves and others. So every decision is seen through the prism of “Is it cost-effective?,” rather than, “Will this get us over the top?” And that is why we always “miss” on the big free agents, such as Scherzer and Harper, or the semi-free agents like Stanton; and why other teams just seem to ask too much from us for any trade deadline player who is not a rental, while other franchises manage to make key deals and pick up long-term contracts.

So we might win the title anyway, but we needed a top reliever, and we got absolutely none, nor did we get a starting pitcher who could have helped us this year and into the future. This has happened enough in the last few years, to clearly make it part of a pattern. The Dodgers ownership is what they are, and we shouldn’t let ourselves be deluded that it is anything else, or that any of this is ever going to change. Frankly, and I know that this will be disagreed with or even mocked by some, I would prefer that the hedge fund take its billions in profits, and sell the Dodgers to someone who wants to go all-out to win titles, not let a few other franchises outbid our out-risk us at the key moments, and then get to celebrate the titles, while we show endless reruns of the glory of 1988. The incredibly loyal fan base here deserves more than that. It’s not just about this year, or the next, it’s about my sense that every offseason, every trade deadline, we are going to be cautious and overly prudent, and let the other franchises make the big headlines and grab the big names. I used to love the Hot Stove League, but our ownership makes it boring now, all about seeing how much payroll we can shed, and trading minor league contracts. The Dodgers should be the best franchise in baseball, and not just in terms of having a really nice stadium.

Just stop with the Penny Pinching BS. At least wait until the Dodgers drop out of the top 5 (Currently 4th highest payroll, just under the Red Sox, Cubs and Yankees).

Or, maybe we wait until there’s a clear need that can be filled with a free agent acquisition.

Or how about we wait until all the money from guys that aren’t playing for us comes off the books (a cool $50 Million this year).

This is NOT a penny pinching team. This is a team that’s trying to spend wisely.

I’m one of the first to call this deadline a failure, then after I had time to think about it, I can see the following.

None of the best closers were traded. Smith, Diaz, Vazquez and Giles all remain on their teams. Greene was the only true closer traded, there were a lot of concerns about him and his FIP not anywhere close to he ERA suggesting regression. Nonetheless, we lost out to Altanta on him who had a bigger need for bullpen help and has a very good farm system.

None of the other guys are necessarily better than the guys we have.

Question about trade deadline going forward. If Dodgers bring up rookies (May, Gonsolin, etc) to the big club and don’t have players with options. What will happen to any player that is DFAed or place on waivers? Previously a trade would be worked out. what happens now?

I have waited to think about all of this before commenting. I understand’s Friedman’s points – it takes two to trade and if the parties can’t agree about value then trades aren’t possible. And none of the big name relievers moved. There were too many buyers, not enough sellers and too many teams with bad bullpens this year, so it was a seller’s market.

I get it.

But – here’s Houston Mitchell of the Times this morning:

“But here’s the problem the Dodgers face, and they often seem oblivious to this: Fans are tired of not winning the World Series. They are tired of watching ticket prices skyrocket with no title to soothe their wallet. They are tired of watching the team tiptoe up to the luxury tax line without crossing it while also announcing $100-million stadium redesigns and, again, rising ticket prices.

So, what the Dodgers did Wednesday is set themselves up to where the only way to please fans this season is to win the World Series. Don’t really want to improve the team? You better win the World Series. Don’t want to make the big trade? You better win the World Series. Have a team that can’t be seen on TV by most people? You better win the World Series. Think people are satisfied just making the playoffs every year? Think again. How many Buffalo Bills fans are satisfied with making it to the Super Bowl multiple times and not winning it?

Better yet, how many Atlanta Braves fans are satisfied with being the best team in baseball throughout the 1990s and only winning one World Series? Not many. And they actually won a World Series.”

I couldn’t say it any better – winning a 7th straight Division is great – but winning the Series is what we need.

I had to comment on Mark’s statement from yesterday that Keibert Ruiz is the next Roy Campanella. Campy was playing in the Negro Leagues when he was only 15! He won 3 MVPs and is in the Hall of Fame. Bill James says that he is the 3rd best catcher in MLB history (behind Berra and Bench) even though he has the fewest plate appearances of any position player in the Hall of Fame. In his 10 year career, he hit 242 HR, had 861 RBI, and had more BB (533) than K (501). Plus he had to deal with the same problems that Jackie Robinson had to deal with as the 6th black player in MLB.

Ruiz may or may not become a good major leaguer – he will never be Roy Campanella.

My last 2 cents on the non-trade deadline, with the caveat that 90% of Dodger of Dodger fans and reporters feel the ONLY current weakness on this 2019 team is the bullpen:

If the Dodgers win the World Series in 2019, Andrew Friedman will be hailed as a genius for not over reacting and overpaying for a reliever, and Andrew Friedman will have in his hands a real shot at at dynasty. A team with elite youth like Verdugo Bellinger Seager Smith Buehler Urias, flexible payroll, and a top 5 farm?? Look out MLB!!

If the Dodgers lose the at anytime during October, BUT are losing games because the stars and the offense just didn’t show up, we’ll all be disappointed and frustrated. Perhaps some changes are in order. Perhaps JT and Kenley really have aged, perhaps Bellinger folded in October again, perhaps the kids Verdugo and Smith looked lost, or perhaps our starters just had a bad week. It would mean maybe we need to tweak something and/or get some new guys in here.

If we lose in the playoffs, but the bullpen is fine, then really nobody is going to blame Friedman.

However, if the Dodgers lose at anytime during October, and that series is lost because the bullpen, like the last 2 World Series, imploded more than once, then Andrew Friedman should rightfully get 100% of the blame. To have perhaps the best Dodger team since 1985 (the 88 team got hot, but definitely wasn’t our best team the last 30-40 years), with only 1 weakness, and not do anything about it??? It’d be unforgivable, and fans would let him have it if the bullpen is giving games away. 90% of the fans wanted the bullpen upgraded, and it would have meant that 90% of us were correct, and Friedman and the 10% who think our bullpen is just fine were wrong. And Friedman’s unwillingness to do what it takes to get a reliever will rightfully take the blame.

But for now, let’s see how things settle out. Perhaps the kid pitchers really do have that lights out stuff that can be utilized in October. Buehler couldn’t do it in 2017, but who knows, maybe Gonsolin and/or May can do it this year. Joe Kelly is definitely finding his groove, and that is a gigantic bonus to the bullpen.

Chris Negron may not be in LA long, but while he is there, he may be the fastest Dodger.

I could not have said it better Bobby. No one wants to over pay just like no one wants to go to the World Series three years in a row and fall short. I know it’s not a guarantee that we would win the World Series with a better bullpen but it certainly wouldn’t have hurt our chances. I hope we will find out what the sticking point was with Pittsburgh but we may never know for sure. I wonder what the Vegas Odds would have been if the deal had gotten done? Maybe we should have started earlier in our bullpen search or maybe that would not of even helped. AF has to roll the dice by bringing up Dustin May now . He is hoping not to lose his rockstar status. I am hoping it will all come together in 2019. Just feeling a little short again. Also, I hope the Zack Greinke deal backfires in Houston.

The Dodgers made a significant offer to Greinke and if not for a last second offer of one or two additional years by AZ, Greinke probably would have been a Dodger. Well, it looks like AZ didn’t have to pay those extra years and instead got added depth by trading Greinke.

In a last-minute trade deadline stunner, the Astros announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Zack Greinke from the Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handers Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas, first baseman Seth Beer and infielder Joshua Rojas. Martin (who is recovering from Tommy John surgery), Bukauskas and Beer are arguably Houston’s three best non-Kyle Tucker and non-Forrest Whitley prospects.

For those in the know, what’s the latest word on Jesen Therrien?

So raise your hand if we should have given up May and Ruiz for Vazquez or stop complaining!

In case you missed it above, here it is again:

So one year and that’s all I get for a comparison? Again, your reading comprehension is not so good. I said he would be Tony Gwynn-esque, not that he would be Tony Gwynn.

Alex Verdugo is a year younger than Andre Ethier was when he was a rookie with the Dodgers.

Actually, they are pretty comparable, although Alex already has more HR and doubles than Either had all year! Alex’s power will come, like Andre’s did and in time, you will be forced to say that Andre can’t carry Alex’s jock.

The biggest difference is that Andre had a career BA of .233 against LHP, while Alex hits them to the tune of .311. Rookie-for-Rookie, Alex will obliterate Andre’s stats and watch and learn: He will be Gwynn-esque!

In case you don’t know, “esque” means: in the style of; resembling.

Why do I have to keep explaining this stuff?

DODGERS ADD LHP ADAM KOLAREK TO ROSTER

LHP CALEB FERGUSON OPTIONED TO TRIPLE-A

LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers announced that they have added left-handed pitcher Adam Kolarek to the active roster and optioned left-handed pitcher Caleb Ferguson to Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Kolarek, 30, was obtained yesterday from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor league outfielder Niko Hulziser. Prior to being traded to Los Angeles, he appeared in 54 games for the Rays, recording a 5-4 record with a 3.95 ERA (19 ER/43.1 IP) and 36 strikeouts. In parts of three Major League seasons, he is a combined 6-3 with a 4.19 ERA (40 ER/86.0 IP) and 59 strikeouts, while limiting left-handed batters to a .209 (29-for-139) batting average. The southpaw was originally drafted by the New York Mets in 11th round of the 2010 First Year Player Draft out of the University of Maryland.

Ferguson, 23, has appeared in 27 games for the Dodgers, going 0-1 with a 5.88 ERA (17 ER/26.0 IP) and 32 strikeouts. The Ohio native is in his second season with the Dodgers, compiling a 7-3 record with a 4.32 ERA (36 ER/75.0 IP) and 91 strikeouts. He was originally drafted by the Dodgers in the 38th round of the 2014 First Year Player Draft.

Somebody teach that kid a third pitch and make him a starter! Any two of those four was too much for Vazquez! Anybody disagree? Especially Lux!

Colletti mentioned last night on DodgerTalk (Last take on the trade deadline) that the Dodgers actually have an extra hurdle these days when trying to find a trade partner. He said don’t be fooled by all the surface talk with other teams, most GM’s are ruthless when it comes to making a deal, and with the success the Dodgers have had the last few years in dealing prospects in trades, the other teams want to make us hurt when they deal with us. Pretty cool, he said that in all his years in baseball, he has never seen an organization as talented top to bottom as this years Dodgers. He went on to say that it is a tribute to the Dodgers development culture in the minor leagues that so many of these guys that get called up(Beatty, Verdugo, Smith,Gonsolin) are game ready, and immediately produce. He said that it just doesn’t happen these days in baseball, and also mentioned the Dodgers are on their way to becoming one of the younger teams in MLB, with guys like Bellinger, Verdugo, Bueller, Seager, all 25 or younger and not even in their prime years yet.Our window isn’t getting smaller, it’s getting bigger. I know Freidman rolled the dice a bit by going in house with his bullpen, but he has 2 months to figure it out. Looking forward to seeing GingerGaard on Friday. Great time to be a Dodger fan.

Silly question: Asdrubal Cabrera was released, if the Dodgers take it, could he be in play offs? There are no trades, but you can still get players via waivers, right? Of course they would be the last team to choose a player for having the best record, but my question is whether it is still possible to get another player? I’m not yet familiar with the new rule.

An interesting take on the trade deadline from Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic (excerpts)

“The game on the field in 2019 — from defensive shifts to platoon-based lineups to third-time-through-the-order removals of starting pitchers — is all about playing the odds.

The game off the field, with risk-averse, value-obsessed clubs all using the same analytically driven playbooks in free agency and trades, also is becoming little more than a math equation.

In both aspects, the life is getting sucked out of the sport.”

“But the sport suffers from an overriding lack of urgency. The deadline needs to be as juiced as the baseball. Instead, too many teams place inordinate emphasis on the future, blathering on about discipline and process. Why should a GM play for today when he can delay the evaluation of his performance until some distant tomorrow?

Each market is different, each situation is different, and not every team, as we shall see, acts alike. Still, many of today’s GMs are procrastinators, not dealmakers. They overanalyze, seek 100th percentile outcomes in every transaction, fear their team getting ranked No. 30 in Baseball America’s organization rankings more than they fear last place. While some are downright afraid to act boldly — or heaven forbid, with the emotion of a diehard fan — they essentially are products of the game’s economic system.”

“Still, when even high-revenue behemoths fall victim to what one old-school executive calls a “prospects over parades” mentality, something is inherently wrong with the sport.

The same groupthink afflicts free agency, in which teams are not necessarily engaging in collusion, but simply valuing players the same way. Agents no longer are willing to accept that teams will not spend lavishly on most free agents. Sellers in the trade market no longer are willing to accept that buyers will not overpay. The resulting industry-wide paralysis is a turnoff to fans.”

Today’s lineup:

Pollock

Muncy (2b)

JT

Belly

Muncy’s fat twin brother (1b)

Will the Thrill

Verdugo

Negron (ss)

Kersh

I gathered the troops around the dining table about 45 min’s before deadline and had them fill out their trade thoughts n wishes. Cells not allowed till evening.

7 of 10 had no significant trades…1 had Vasquez for not nearly enough and Greene popped up once. Not bad..

258 comments!! Epic.. Never having the opportunity to go to Israel and sse the Second Temple AKA The Wailing Wall,

MT was a force to reckon with. Wailing, the gnashing of teeth Angst, it was all there..

The only glaring flaw was comparing Ruiz to Campy..Why not Posey and the guy from the STL??

I know its your gig but really??

Campy had a 10 year career. If Ruiz doesn’t get to L.A. for another two years that means we might have another 12 years or so to see how wrong (or right) MT was with his comment. It might become evident in the first few years that Mark was way off base, but if it’s at all close we might not have a true comparison until about 2030. Considering the age of a number of the commenters here, some of us may never find out how right or wrong he was.

The Dodgers will cease using Joc Pederson at first base as a regular option. It’ll be Cody Bellinger back there on days when Max Muncy is needed at 2B. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Pederson “worked his tail off,” but it didn’t work out.

Well MT, at least you got the title for today right! How does that Cody gonna play 1B crow taste? I took that to the bank like you said. Is it still in the bank? Is it covered by FDIC?

Yeah Mark, what about this article?

Who wrote that headline? Way to Cherry Pick all the articles except this one.

Being friedman last year,has he been offered a extension.

Back to a healthy Dodger Team:

If a RH is pitching, the Lineup could be this:

1. Pederson LF

2. Muncy 2B

3. Turner 3B

4. Bellinger RF

5. Seager SS

6. Beaty 1B

7. Verdugo CF

8. Smith C

Against LHP:

1. Pollock CF

2. Muncy 2B

3. Turner 3B

4. Bellinger RF

5. Freese 1B

6. Seager SS

7. Verdugo LF

8. Smith C

If healthy, I cannot see how the Dodgers are better with Bellinger at 1B in any scenario.

Will D. Smith: I don’t even know where to begin.

Babe Ruth is dead. Will Smith lives!