Tough Decisions
AND SOME OF THEM MIGHT NOT BE POPULAR. It was said that the entire Dodger team watched Walker Buehler throw a simulated game yesterday he s not just another arm. His stuff is electric and he should ready to start next weekend against the Angels. I have heard that he likley will not have a cap on his innings this year (within reason). I expect to see him log
… AND SOME OF THEM MIGHT NOT BE POPULAR.
It was said that the entire Dodger team watched Walker Buehler throw a simulated game yesterday – he’s not just another arm. His stuff is electric and he should ready to start next weekend against the Angels. I have heard that he likley will not have a cap on his innings this year (within reason). I expect to see him log 180 total.
There are going to have to be some hard decisions made as more pitchers get healthy. When Buehler returns to the rotation, this is what it looks like:
- Kershaw
- Stripling
- Meada
- Buehler
- Hill
- Wood
While the Dodgers may run a six man rotation for a short while, it is less than practical. Someone has to go to the pen. Rich Hill has offered and maybe he should, but I think Alex Wood could be Andrew Miller out of the pen (AC suggested that). The thing is: Alex will not like it. He sees himself as a starter and relieving could cost him a lot of money when he hits the open market in 2020. As much as I like him in the pen, I think he would be a problem if moved there – and I can’t blame him.
Ryu will be back fairly soon as well (allegedly) as will Julio Urias. The Yankees need another starter. Alex Wood might be their man. What would the Yankees part with for Wood? Would they give up 2 of their 3-8 prospects ands 1 of their 10-15 prospects? Oh, by the way, this is a 4-way deal in which Joc Pederson goes to Seattle for 2 prospects as well. Manny Machado goes to the Dodgers along with Britton and Logan Forsythe goes to Baltimore to balance the $$$$. All the prospects go to Baltimore.
So, the Dodgers get Manny Machado and potentially another closer in Britton without trading any prospects. This is what the team might look like in August:
- Verdugo RF
- Manny SS
- Turner 3B
- Muncy 2B
- Kemp LF
- Bellinger 1B
- Taylor CF
- Grandal C
Bench: Barnes, Utley, Hernandez, Toles
Starters: Kershaw, Stripling, Hill, Ryu, Buehler
Pen: Ferguson, Urias, Floro, Alexander, Hudson, Britton, Fields, Maeda, Jansen
Puig on the DL.
By the way, it’s a tough decision to move Maeda to the pen – he and his agent aren’t going to like it!
Thoughts? You got a better idea?
Fort those of you who think Manny should sign an extension BEFORE the Dodgers trade for him – it ain’t happening. Why would Machado do that… unless you want to give him 10 years/$500 million… and that’s not happening? I would hope that the Dodgers could convince him to sign a 10 year/$350 million deal and move to 2B. Sell him on the fact that at 2B, he could go down in history as the GOAT!
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Discussion (64)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Bluto put it well above: the price for Machado went down from the winter to now. The price theoretically should go down as we approach July 31, because Balt knows all it will receive for Machado after July 31 is a compensatory 1st round pick. Now, is that 31st-38th pick who they get to choose better than the prospects they’d get by July 31? If so, don’t trade him.
Now again, the price should drop by July 31 unless theres’ tons of suitors, in which case the price may increase. Who blinks first? I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to get him, and I really do think if we got him, we’d get him knowing we could keep him.
It’ll be a fun next few weeks!
Baseball America just updated their top 100 prospects (07/06/18). The Padres have the most top 100 players on the list with 9. The Rays followed with 7, Blue Jays & White Sox with 6, and Dodgers/Twins/Angels/Braves with 5. As an aside, the Red Sox, Cubs, and Giants do not have any top 100, and the DBacks have 1.
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The Padres have 3 top 25, 6 top 50, and 7 top 75. The Rays have 3 top 25 and 5 top 50. The Blue Jays have 2 of the top 5.
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The Dodgers top 100 are as follows:
Alex Verdugo – #25
Keibert Ruiz – #26
Yusniel Diaz – #51
Will Smith – #80
Gavin Lux – #81
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Once MLBPipeline comes out with their update, we will see where Smith and Lux land, and whether White and Santana are no longer included. To me, the 5 listed above are the untouchables for a rental, and I would add Dustin May in that group. I would consider White, Santana, and Jeren Kendall to be available for the right rental, but also for the appropriate longer controlled high impact relievers…Blake Treinen, Kyle Barraclough, and to a lesser degree Drew Steckenrider and Kirby Yates. None of those mentioned above should be discussed for Adam Conley or any other similar reliever.
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I like Machado, and I do think that he would help the Dodgers. But not at the price above. Machado may get them the NL West, and quite possibly the NL, and while they would still not be as good as NYY, Boston, or Houston, they would only have to face one of them in the WS. But their biggest need is GOOD relief. If Milwaukee offers them RHP Corbin Burnes (#58) and CF Brett Phillips, the Dodgers could counter with Jeren Kendall, but do not have a pitcher comparable to Burnes. As I stated yesterday, I would be a major advocate for Machado but not for the likes of Verdugo/Ruiz/Lux/May, 4 names that have been allegedly requested. If Yadier Alvarez is not considered a viable option by teams, then he should not be a top ten prospect. If he is as good as he is projected by the Dodgers, then Alvarez and Kendall should be able to get it done.
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But if Alvarez and Kendall are needed for Treinen or Barraclough, that is a bigger need. I think there is a way of getting Machado and either Barraclough or Treinen, but if the Brewers want to overpay for a rental, then FAZ needs to let them.
The Manny Machado rumors are starting to finally have specificity (May/Ruiz from LA, Phillips from MIL) hopefully this mean things are heating up and there actually may be fire.
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For more on Phillips, I add this from Crasnick: Brett Phillips could be one piece in a Brewers trade package, sources said. His path is blocked in Milwaukee, and Adam Jones will be moving off CF regardless of whether he stays with the Orioles or goes. Phillips brings lots of energy, and is still just 24.
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Nightengale, who I find of as little value as 4 way trade dreams, sez Orioles may be willing to add Britton. I think that’s bad for the Dodgers, as I don’t see how the salaries and threshold would work.
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One line of thinking I found on Twitter, via JP Breen.
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Back in December, Ken Rosenthal wrote about how teams were hesitant to meet Orioles asking price on Machado. It was two young pitchers. Obviously, no one met that price b/c Machado wasn’t traded…
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One has to surmise that the Orioles recognize that any return in July would be lower than what they’d be able to get back then. No one met their price in December. Now they’ll offer less b/c Machado is less valuable. The Orioles have no leverage. They essentially have to trade him — which teams know.
Toles is here and he’s not going back.
On the Guggenheim suit:
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I have been aware that all is not well between Walter and Boehly and that there is great discontent among some shareholders. This suit is essentially the same as one that was filed a couple of years ago and withdrawn. I am sure that Guggs has a response prepared and I would not be surprised if it was dismissed. I do not believe the Plaintiff is saying he lost his principal… just that the interest may not have been what he expected.
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I do not think this suit is the undoing of Guggs, but they have other internal issues on the financial side. Time will tell.
Per Dodgers.com:
“The seventh inning has been the black-hole inning for the Dodgers and their bullpen most of the season. The Dodgers have been outscored by opponents in the seventh, 47-30, their biggest negative run differential for a single inning.”
I don’t think that anyone likely saw what I posted yesterday about the lawsuit against Guggenheim, so here it is again:
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Well, the Complaint (lawsuit) has been filed and served but hasn’t even been answered yet. It has been filed as a class action, but I don’t see where the Court has certified it as a class action.
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Basically, Guggenheim bought a life insurance company that sold annuities called Security Benefit Life. Under Guggenheim, the company sold a new type of annuity called a fixed indexed annuity. Here’s a good definition of a FIT:
“A Fixed Index Annuity is a tax-favored accumulation product issued by an insurance company. It shares features with fixed deferred interest rate annuities; however, with an index annuity, the annual growth is bench-marked to a stock market index (e.g., Nasdaq, NYSE, S&P500) rather than an interest rate. An index annuity’s growth is subject to rate floors and caps, meaning it will not exceed or fall below the specified return levels even if the underlying stock indices fluctuate outside of those set parameters. ”
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According to the complaint, Guggenheim wanted the upfront money paid by annuity purchasers. Nothing wrong with that – that’s how the insurance and annuity market works. The company takes the money and invests it and makes money on the investments and then pays out when the annuity comes due.
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The Security Benefit FIT was indexed to something called the Trader Vic Index Excess Return instead of some market index. This allegedly was advantageous to Guggenheim because it would underperform but investors were blocked by contract from withdrawing their funds if it did.
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Plaintiff Ogles bought a policy and claims that he was mislead about how the fund would perform by Security Benefit’s marketing materials.
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Plaintiff alleges that brokers/agents were incentivised to sell the FIT due to great perks and commissions and that created a conflict between brokers/agents and purchasers. (Although that conflict potentially exists between any seller’s agent and buyer. The agent works for the seller. There’s a question about any fiduciary duty between buyers and the seller’s agent.)
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The complaint also alleges that there is an incestuous relationship between the various Guggenheim entities which covered up whether Security Benefit was adequately capitalized.
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The complaint then alleges that Walter, Boehly et al took the money from Security Benefit policyholders to buy the Dodgers. They allegedly did by a “shell game”.
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The complaint is long but can be read here:
Open on www.docketbird.comhttps://www.docketbird.com/court_documents?id=ksd-2:2018-cv-02265-00001&user_id=guestIf the Woods and Maedas’s of the world look more at the future Benjamins than the 24 others with them on this team fighting for a flag, I have a hymn for each…”XXuck Hymn”!!! Trade em…
Not in on the Machado thing unless there is a long term deal with him at 3B and Turner to 2B… It’s a senority thing for me,… Seager remaining at SS is the big question…