Tonight, Tony Gonsolin has to Pitch the Game of his Life – No Pressure!

Tonight, the Dodgers face the Diamondbacks and Tony Gonsolin needs to go deep into the game. On the surface, that should not be a problem as the Dodgers have won EXACTLY two times the number of games the Diamondbacks have (49 to 98). The only problem is that this is baseball and anything can happen. Humberto Castellanos might as well be Cy Young. On paper, the Dodgers should win this series 3-0, but I do not think they play the games… on paper!

It’s back to a one-game lead with the Giants on top. There are just nine games to go, and I predict that if Julio Urias starts on Sunday, he only pitches two or three innings. But, tonight, the Catman needs to step up and show out. It would be great if he could throw six innings, but that is kind of unchartered territory for him.

I believe that the Dodgers will do what I suggested yesterday. If it were earlier in the season, Max Scherzer would have likely went another inning, but he struggled yesterday and maybe he is a little tired as well. I never suggested that the Dodgers “just give up.” What I suggested is resting players who needed it. It is just absurd to try and win the Division at all costs only to have an empty tank in the playoffs.

The Dodgers have another off day on Monday, but Justin Turner looks really tired… maybe they give him Sunday and Monday off. Gavin Lux, Trea Turner, Corey Seager, AJ Pollock, and Mookie look fresh. Let’s hope that Cody Bellinger has that look when he returns. Urias and Buehler are my major concerns. I have seen this happen with young pitchers many times and it is concerning. Yes, it is “Dead Arm Syndrome,” but it’s all “Mental Fatigue.” 50% of this game is 80% mental or is it 80% of this game is 50% mental? Well, you get my drift.

It is played by humans… young humans in the case of Urias and Buehler. I want to make sure that are rested and fresh for the playoffs. I have never believed in giving up, but I do believe in allocating your resources so as to maximize the long-term returns.

Rants & Raves

• What is up with David Price? Yesterday he pitched 1 inning and threw 12 pitches. That is the first he has pitched in 9 days! Something there does not meet the eye. Maybe they are keeping him fresh for the playoffs? Ha!
• I saw Justin Bruihl ht 93 MPH yesterday. If he could get on a Driveline-Type Program and add a couple MPH to his fastball, he would be devestating and he is already pretty good.
• AJ Pollock gives this team a different look. The Dodgers need him to be fresh and he looks to be after a few days of rest.
• Earlier in the season, I predicted Corey Seager would hit .300 – he’s now up to .289 and he is hot. It would be good for the Dodgers if he makes it.
• Joe Kelly and his 2.88 ERA is becoming what Andrew Friedman thought he could be. Friedman just lacked the X-Ray Vision to see that mass in his shoulder. He should have done his due dilligance. Before he signs another free agent, the player will have to undergo exploratory surgery, oh and he should go to all Courts and see if there are any “sealed documents” against that player. Actually, he should hire ex-CIA agents and “probe” every part of the free agent’s past. and install cameras in their bedrooms. That will make every free agent want to come to the Dodgers right? (If I have to explain that is sarcasm, then you have an issue).
• Gavin Lux sure picjed a good time to break out his big bat! He was so great in CF that the Rockies were afraid to his the ball near him.
• I want to extend a special tanks to the San Diego Padres who pulled out yesterday’s game over the Giants.

Bluto’s Web Sleuthing

Somehow I missed this yesterday, so I am re-posting it. Thanks, Bluto. Good stuff!

News from Internet:

JAY JAFFE CHAT
Lots and lots of great stuff here.

Tom: Hi Jay. I know it’s early, but any thoughts on what the NL West is gonna look like next year? You think we’re gonna get another season of three “superteams” mixing it up?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think we can characterize the Padres as a superteam after what happened to them this year, particularly with a rotation that was projected to be among the game’s best just falling apart, and I suspect we’ll see some changes. Would they fire Preller and/or Tingler? I’m not sure, but a lot blew up in their faces this year. I think the Dodgers will remain a powerhouse but could look different depending upon how they approach the free agencies of Seager, Kershaw, and possibly Scherzer. I expect the Giants could look different as well given their aging core and the number of free agents they have, but we know this new regime is pretty smart and I expect they’ll be in the mix going forward

Mrs Phanatic: I know this is a player you probably forgot about, but which team do you think could fix Vinny Velazquez? Or is he so bad not even the Rays could fix him?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not the Padres, alas. The Giants have done very well fixing pitchers during the Zaidi era, the Rays are probably a good bet. Maybe the Dodgers.

Corbin Burnes: Do you think Chase Utley deserves a plaque, and do you think he will get one?

And the active second baseman with the greatest Hall of Fame odds is ___.

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s definitely worthy, but his late start, modest counting stats and reliance upon defensive stats will make him a tougher sell for voters. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/utleys-chase-for-cooperstown/

Altuve, but I’d put his odds at maybe about 30-40%

Maddoning: Can you think of another healthy player that has dropped off as much as Cody Bellinger? What is really going on there?

Jay Jaffe: Either he injured his shoulder and leg and has had trouble getting right since then, like many players before him, or he woke up one morning and forgot how to hit. Which do you think it is?

Roberta’s Piazza: How would you compare Julio Urias’ most likely outcome now to what it was six years ago?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s pretty miraculous that he’s become the pitcher the Dodgers hoped that he would given his precociousness and the severity of his shoulder injury. He’s still only in his age-24 season and he’s on the fringes of a Cy Young race, crowded out by two of his current teammates.

mookie magic: what do you think ends up happening with scherzer this offseason? his comments after his 3000K game about hoping to be kershaw’s teammate when he gets to 3000 sure make it sound like he wants to stay in LA, and granted he won’t be as otherwordly as he has been since the trade because nobody’s that good but it seems like he’s making quite the case that the dodgers should try and get that done.

Jay Jaffe: I saw that quote and my eyes just about jumped out of my head. I would have to think the Dodgers saw that as well

I think they’ll work to keep him if that interest is genuine. Between re-signing Kershaw and figuring out what happens with Bauer — whom I suspect will get a lenghthy suspension and free up some money — they’ve got a lot of balls in the air, though.

Mr. Burrito: Kenley Jansen: Potential HOF candidate or Hall of the Very Good?

Jay Jaffe: I think he needs a few more good years to get to the Hall but I don’t know if he has it in him

Ben: According to DRS, Trea Turner is the better shortstop, but UZR thinks Corey Seager is better. Do you think the Dodgers agree with UZR that Seager is better there or did they just move Turner to 2B out of loyalty to Seager?

Jay Jaffe: i think it had a lot to do with Turner having major league experience at 2B and CF
Local news website Michigan Live did a nice piece on Andy Pages:
https://www.mlive.com/sports/saginaw-bay-city/2021/09/great-lakes-loons-dodgers-prospect-andy-pages-cap-historic-season.html

Dodgers Farm System back in the top 10! Farm System Standings via Baseball America ($$$$). This isn’t rankings in terms of talent, but aggregate W/L records
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/rays-yankees-red-sox-top-final-2021-minor-league-baseball-organization-standings/

Paul Casella on Prospect Michael Busch:
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/los-angeles-dodgers-michael-busch-taps-into-power?t=dodgers-pipeline-coverage

Nice Article out of St. Louis calling Will Smith the best Catcher in the NL
https://www.wdrb.com/sports/bozich-former-card-will-smith-the-best-catcher-in-national-league/article_e1e00edc-10d1-11ec-a487-17bed8754dd4.html
Who is the Dodger Prospect who best improved themselves in 2021? According to Baseball America? Answer at the bottom, but link ($$$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/30-mlb-prospects-who-improved-their-stock-in-2021/

From @FutureDodgers on Twitter:
A group of prospects are coming stateside from the Dominican Summer League, likely for fall instructs. The group includes

SS Wilman Diaz (17)
C Jesus Galiz (17)
SS Rayne Doncon (17)
RHP Maximo Martinez (17)
C Thayron Liranzo (18)
SS Miguel Droz (19)
RHP Jorge Gonzalez (19)

Jay Jaffe on Scherzer:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-chases-perfection-and-collects-milestones/
Old Friend Alert, MLB.com made this selection for the Washington Nationals “late blooming prospect”
Nationals: Donovan Casey, OF (No. 19)
Acquired from the Dodgers in the Max Scherzer-Trea Turner deal at the Trade Deadline, the 25-year-old outfielder was more than a throw-in in a blockbuster. Casey has been known for his plus running and arm tools since his days at Boston College, but he showed promising offensive gains at Double-A in 2021, hitting .303/.361/.483 with 14 homers in 85 games between Tulsa and Harrisburg. He hasn’t been able to replicate those numbers at Triple-A Rochester of yet, but the tools are still there for him to be a fourth outfielder at the top level in his late-20s.

As for the Dodgers, the pick was:
Dodgers: Andre Jackson, RHP (No. 7)
Jackson was a two-way player at Utah, one who hit more than he pitched and who needed Tommy John surgery in 2017. The Dodgers rolled the dice and signed him in the 12th round that summer, and he didn’t throw a professional pitch until May 2018, when he generated mixed results. He took off in 2019, striking out 11.1 per nine in two levels of A ball, and his 2021 has included pitching at four levels, including the big leagues, while also appearing in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game.
Bill Plunkett reminds us about Kahnle:
When the Dodgers signed Tommy Kahnle to 2-yr, $4.75m contract in December there was some hope that he might return from TJ surgery late in 2021 season. Dave Roberts said today that Kahnle’s rehab timetable changed in spring. He has only progressed to playing catch. Won’t pitch in 21

Ben Clemens Chat
Larry: Who wins the NL West?
Ben Clemens: My heart says the Giants, my head (and now our playoff odds) say the Dodgers… It’s a true toss-up though. I just think it would be a lot more fun for the Giants to win (plus I live in SF so that would be cool)
Scherzer: I’m unsure if Ruiz and Gray was a light return on July 31, but it sure feels like one now with the way Scherzer has pitched. Is it fair to judge the Scherzer trade differently now than it was when it happened, given the short-term boon for LAD?
Ben Clemens: Not really, in my opinion. I don’t think they were likely to get more. Teams knew who Max Scherzer was. It’s not like we’ve learned some shocking new information that changes the value, and he was gone after this year anyway
Marko from Tropoja: Assuming he re-signs, should the Dodgers just schedule Kershaw for say two 10-day IL stints at each third of the season even if he’s healthy? This would be akin to “load management” in the NBA; maybe he can get to 30 starts with a couple of breaks. His peripherals are excellent—2.80 FIP is his lowest in five years—and translate to a six-win pace over a full season.
Ben Clemens: Why not? Seems like they get to that point one way or another anyway
TomBruno23: If you are a BFIB for the Cards do you root for LA to win the WC b/c it might be easier to beat them in 1 game than 3 out of 5 compared to SF?
Ben Clemens: Definitely yes! The only complicating factor is that the ace differential is large btw. Gausman and Scherzer/Buehler, but I totally agree
Inaccessible Rail: How insane is it that Jacob deGrom is still tied for 6th in FG WAR for pitchers, even though he’s pitched like half the innings of the other guys? And that’s not even counting his batting WAR, which is 2nd-best among pitchers.
Ben Clemens: He’s truly ridiculous

Answer:

Eddys Leonard, SS
Arguably, Leonard has done more this year to raise his own status than any player in the Dodgers’ system. His 22 home runs tied him for fifth in the system, and he finished the season hitting .296. His .929 OPS was second in the system, too, just behind Andy Pages, who also went through a breakout season of his own.