Tonight, the Dodgers face the Diamondbacks and Tony Gonsolin needs to go deep into the game. On the surface, that should not be a problem as the Dodgers have won EXACTLY two times the number of games the Diamondbacks have (49 to 98). The only problem is that this is baseball and anything can happen. Humberto Castellanos might as well be Cy Young. On paper, the Dodgers should win this series 3-0, but I do not think they play the games… on paper!
It’s back to a one-game lead with the Giants on top. There are just nine games to go, and I predict that if Julio Urias starts on Sunday, he only pitches two or three innings. But, tonight, the Catman needs to step up and show out. It would be great if he could throw six innings, but that is kind of unchartered territory for him.
I believe that the Dodgers will do what I suggested yesterday. If it were earlier in the season, Max Scherzer would have likely went another inning, but he struggled yesterday and maybe he is a little tired as well. I never suggested that the Dodgers “just give up.” What I suggested is resting players who needed it. It is just absurd to try and win the Division at all costs only to have an empty tank in the playoffs.
The Dodgers have another off day on Monday, but Justin Turner looks really tired… maybe they give him Sunday and Monday off. Gavin Lux, Trea Turner, Corey Seager, AJ Pollock, and Mookie look fresh. Let’s hope that Cody Bellinger has that look when he returns. Urias and Buehler are my major concerns. I have seen this happen with young pitchers many times and it is concerning. Yes, it is “Dead Arm Syndrome,” but it’s all “Mental Fatigue.” 50% of this game is 80% mental or is it 80% of this game is 50% mental? Well, you get my drift.
It is played by humans… young humans in the case of Urias and Buehler. I want to make sure that are rested and fresh for the playoffs. I have never believed in giving up, but I do believe in allocating your resources so as to maximize the long-term returns.
Rants & Raves
- What is up with David Price? Yesterday he pitched 1 inning and threw 12 pitches. That is the first he has pitched in 9 days! Something there does not meet the eye. Maybe they are keeping him fresh for the playoffs? Ha!
- I saw Justin Bruihl ht 93 MPH yesterday. If he could get on a Driveline-Type Program and add a couple MPH to his fastball, he would be devestating and he is already pretty good.
- AJ Pollock gives this team a different look. The Dodgers need him to be fresh and he looks to be after a few days of rest.
- Earlier in the season, I predicted Corey Seager would hit .300 – he’s now up to .289 and he is hot. It would be good for the Dodgers if he makes it.
- Joe Kelly and his 2.88 ERA is becoming what Andrew Friedman thought he could be. Friedman just lacked the X-Ray Vision to see that mass in his shoulder. He should have done his due dilligance. Before he signs another free agent, the player will have to undergo exploratory surgery, oh and he should go to all Courts and see if there are any “sealed documents” against that player. Actually, he should hire ex-CIA agents and “probe” every part of the free agent’s past. and install cameras in their bedrooms. That will make every free agent want to come to the Dodgers right? (If I have to explain that is sarcasm, then you have an issue).
- Gavin Lux sure picjed a good time to break out his big bat! He was so great in CF that the Rockies were afraid to his the ball near him.
- I want to extend a special tanks to the San Diego Padres who pulled out yesterday’s game over the Giants.
Bluto’s Web Sleuthing
Somehow I missed this yesterday, so I am re-posting it. Thanks, Bluto. Good stuff!
News from Internet:
JAY JAFFE CHAT
Lots and lots of great stuff here.
Tom: Hi Jay. I know it’s early, but any thoughts on what the NL West is gonna look like next year? You think we’re gonna get another season of three “superteams” mixing it up?
Jay Jaffe: I don’t think we can characterize the Padres as a superteam after what happened to them this year, particularly with a rotation that was projected to be among the game’s best just falling apart, and I suspect we’ll see some changes. Would they fire Preller and/or Tingler? I’m not sure, but a lot blew up in their faces this year. I think the Dodgers will remain a powerhouse but could look different depending upon how they approach the free agencies of Seager, Kershaw, and possibly Scherzer. I expect the Giants could look different as well given their aging core and the number of free agents they have, but we know this new regime is pretty smart and I expect they’ll be in the mix going forward
Mrs Phanatic: I know this is a player you probably forgot about, but which team do you think could fix Vinny Velazquez? Or is he so bad not even the Rays could fix him?
Jay Jaffe: Probably not the Padres, alas. The Giants have done very well fixing pitchers during the Zaidi era, the Rays are probably a good bet. Maybe the Dodgers.
Corbin Burnes: Do you think Chase Utley deserves a plaque, and do you think he will get one?
And the active second baseman with the greatest Hall of Fame odds is ___.
Jay Jaffe: I think he’s definitely worthy, but his late start, modest counting stats and reliance upon defensive stats will make him a tougher sell for voters. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/utleys-chase-for-cooperstown/
Altuve, but I’d put his odds at maybe about 30-40%
Maddoning: Can you think of another healthy player that has dropped off as much as Cody Bellinger? What is really going on there?
Jay Jaffe: Either he injured his shoulder and leg and has had trouble getting right since then, like many players before him, or he woke up one morning and forgot how to hit. Which do you think it is?
Roberta’s Piazza: How would you compare Julio Urias’ most likely outcome now to what it was six years ago?
Jay Jaffe: I think it’s pretty miraculous that he’s become the pitcher the Dodgers hoped that he would given his precociousness and the severity of his shoulder injury. He’s still only in his age-24 season and he’s on the fringes of a Cy Young race, crowded out by two of his current teammates.
mookie magic: what do you think ends up happening with scherzer this offseason? his comments after his 3000K game about hoping to be kershaw’s teammate when he gets to 3000 sure make it sound like he wants to stay in LA, and granted he won’t be as otherwordly as he has been since the trade because nobody’s that good but it seems like he’s making quite the case that the dodgers should try and get that done.
Jay Jaffe: I saw that quote and my eyes just about jumped out of my head. I would have to think the Dodgers saw that as well
I think they’ll work to keep him if that interest is genuine. Between re-signing Kershaw and figuring out what happens with Bauer — whom I suspect will get a lenghthy suspension and free up some money — they’ve got a lot of balls in the air, though.
Mr. Burrito: Kenley Jansen: Potential HOF candidate or Hall of the Very Good?
Jay Jaffe: I think he needs a few more good years to get to the Hall but I don’t know if he has it in him
Ben: According to DRS, Trea Turner is the better shortstop, but UZR thinks Corey Seager is better. Do you think the Dodgers agree with UZR that Seager is better there or did they just move Turner to 2B out of loyalty to Seager?
Jay Jaffe: i think it had a lot to do with Turner having major league experience at 2B and CF
Local news website Michigan Live did a nice piece on Andy Pages:
https://www.mlive.com/sports/saginaw-bay-city/2021/09/great-lakes-loons-dodgers-prospect-andy-pages-cap-historic-season.html
Dodgers Farm System back in the top 10! Farm System Standings via Baseball America ($$$$). This isn’t rankings in terms of talent, but aggregate W/L records
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/rays-yankees-red-sox-top-final-2021-minor-league-baseball-organization-standings/
Paul Casella on Prospect Michael Busch:
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/los-angeles-dodgers-michael-busch-taps-into-power?t=dodgers-pipeline-coverage
Nice Article out of St. Louis calling Will Smith the best Catcher in the NL
https://www.wdrb.com/sports/bozich-former-card-will-smith-the-best-catcher-in-national-league/article_e1e00edc-10d1-11ec-a487-17bed8754dd4.html
Who is the Dodger Prospect who best improved themselves in 2021? According to Baseball America? Answer at the bottom, but link ($$$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/30-mlb-prospects-who-improved-their-stock-in-2021/
From @FutureDodgers on Twitter:
A group of prospects are coming stateside from the Dominican Summer League, likely for fall instructs. The group includes
SS Wilman Diaz (17)
C Jesus Galiz (17)
SS Rayne Doncon (17)
RHP Maximo Martinez (17)
C Thayron Liranzo (18)
SS Miguel Droz (19)
RHP Jorge Gonzalez (19)
Jay Jaffe on Scherzer:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-chases-perfection-and-collects-milestones/
Old Friend Alert, MLB.com made this selection for the Washington Nationals “late blooming prospect”
Nationals: Donovan Casey, OF (No. 19)
Acquired from the Dodgers in the Max Scherzer-Trea Turner deal at the Trade Deadline, the 25-year-old outfielder was more than a throw-in in a blockbuster. Casey has been known for his plus running and arm tools since his days at Boston College, but he showed promising offensive gains at Double-A in 2021, hitting .303/.361/.483 with 14 homers in 85 games between Tulsa and Harrisburg. He hasn’t been able to replicate those numbers at Triple-A Rochester of yet, but the tools are still there for him to be a fourth outfielder at the top level in his late-20s.
As for the Dodgers, the pick was:
Dodgers: Andre Jackson, RHP (No. 7)
Jackson was a two-way player at Utah, one who hit more than he pitched and who needed Tommy John surgery in 2017. The Dodgers rolled the dice and signed him in the 12th round that summer, and he didn’t throw a professional pitch until May 2018, when he generated mixed results. He took off in 2019, striking out 11.1 per nine in two levels of A ball, and his 2021 has included pitching at four levels, including the big leagues, while also appearing in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game.
Bill Plunkett reminds us about Kahnle:
When the Dodgers signed Tommy Kahnle to 2-yr, $4.75m contract in December there was some hope that he might return from TJ surgery late in 2021 season. Dave Roberts said today that Kahnle’s rehab timetable changed in spring. He has only progressed to playing catch. Won’t pitch in 21
Ben Clemens Chat
Larry: Who wins the NL West?
Ben Clemens: My heart says the Giants, my head (and now our playoff odds) say the Dodgers… It’s a true toss-up though. I just think it would be a lot more fun for the Giants to win (plus I live in SF so that would be cool)
Scherzer: I’m unsure if Ruiz and Gray was a light return on July 31, but it sure feels like one now with the way Scherzer has pitched. Is it fair to judge the Scherzer trade differently now than it was when it happened, given the short-term boon for LAD?
Ben Clemens: Not really, in my opinion. I don’t think they were likely to get more. Teams knew who Max Scherzer was. It’s not like we’ve learned some shocking new information that changes the value, and he was gone after this year anyway
Marko from Tropoja: Assuming he re-signs, should the Dodgers just schedule Kershaw for say two 10-day IL stints at each third of the season even if he’s healthy? This would be akin to “load management” in the NBA; maybe he can get to 30 starts with a couple of breaks. His peripherals are excellent—2.80 FIP is his lowest in five years—and translate to a six-win pace over a full season.
Ben Clemens: Why not? Seems like they get to that point one way or another anyway
TomBruno23: If you are a BFIB for the Cards do you root for LA to win the WC b/c it might be easier to beat them in 1 game than 3 out of 5 compared to SF?
Ben Clemens: Definitely yes! The only complicating factor is that the ace differential is large btw. Gausman and Scherzer/Buehler, but I totally agree
Inaccessible Rail: How insane is it that Jacob deGrom is still tied for 6th in FG WAR for pitchers, even though he’s pitched like half the innings of the other guys? And that’s not even counting his batting WAR, which is 2nd-best among pitchers.
Ben Clemens: He’s truly ridiculous
Answer:
Eddys Leonard, SS
Arguably, Leonard has done more this year to raise his own status than any player in the Dodgers’ system. His 22 home runs tied him for fifth in the system, and he finished the season hitting .296. His .929 OPS was second in the system, too, just behind Andy Pages, who also went through a breakout season of his own.
Discussion (35)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Who will be the odd man out tonight in our OF lineup ?
Gavin, AJ or CT3 ? I think DR already said CT3 will be starting tonight. So who will go to the bench ? AJ or Gavin ?
Tough decision but would hate to see Gavin on the bench after the tear he is right on.
Or maybe give JT a rest and play CT3 or Gavin at 3b ? What you think?
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gonsolin did a fine job giving us 5 innings and only surrendering 2 runs. Bullpen was fantastic againg. 4 more scoreless innings and only one hit . Amazing.
Outfield D was key today as well. AJ, Gavin and then CT3 in the ninth making great plays.
Gavin Lux is looking better and better in the outfield and at the plate. Got no hits yesterday in about 10 days but still managed to work 2 BB. Bottom of the lineup with him and AJ have been the difference for some time now.
Keep it up, guys!
Giants just wont slow down. My hope was that after that tough loss in SD on Thursday and going to the thin air in COL they would have a clunker. But they took care of business rather easily.
Cards win their 14th in a row. Wow, would hate to face that team and possibly Wainwright in that WC playoff game.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Headline: DOGGED DODGERS DEFEAT DBACKS- Refuse to Concede NL West to Giants.
Nice win, but offense left too many men on base. Should not have been as close as it was.
Taylor and Jansen did their part
Truth of the matter is we should’ve scored more runs, but I’ll take it
Gonsolin did his part!
Luz. The next Center Field????
Unfreaking believable.
Gavin lux has been amazing, there’s no other way to describe the way he’s been playing I am so happy for the kid
This team has the innate ability to turn a possible big inning into a little inning
Culprit, trying to do too much. Go up the middle go the other way
It’s not rocket science.
AJ Pollock!!!!
At least until we lose again
Come on Turner quit thinking about the batting title. This guy can’t throw strikes and you roll over
Nice catch AJ
I’m glad to see EVERYBODY is back on board to WIN THE DIVISION TITLE and enter the postseason through the front door like WORLD CHAMPIONS. Go Dodgers!
Hi Watford Dodger
Thank you for the kind words you said about me. You are the nicest guy around here. I appreciate you and your kind words about me.
The owner of the website (Mark) didn’t like me posting here and I respect other people’s property (Mark’s website) so I stopped posting.
I still read everything here.
Again thank you for the kind words I appreciate it.
I like JT in sixth place. I hope he gets back on track soon. the bottom of line guys have been very productive in the last games. and Polock and Lux look good there.
Gotta say that it’s a shame that Eric is no longer posting here.
I enjoyed his different way of looking at things, and his knowledge of the game.
Think he was rather unfairly treated by some on here.
As a bonus!
Lots of good stuff in this Jay Jaffe interview, found on Internet
INCLUDING: The return of someone (ironically, I think) using #Fraudman. Remember when that was a thing?
Dan: Would adding adding an all star short stop (there are a few in free agency thus year) and a solid veteran starter turn Detroit in a wildcard contender for next year?
Jay Jaffe: I think it’s the right place to start, particularly given the number of good shortstops out there. A lot still has to go right, but they’re nearly a .500 team now, so it’s time to start going for it.
Maddoning: Are front offices planning for a NL DH for next year? Is it that likely? Many talk like it’s a forgone conclusion….
Jay Jaffe: I think so, yes. And i’d bet we’ve got a 90-95% likelihood of seeing it, assuming there is a season
Derek: Has Lux’s late season resurgence (or just “surgence”?) restored faith in him to any significant degree?
Jay Jaffe: Whose faith? I don’t think the Dodgers have lost faith in him, just decided that they had better choices for the immediate opportunities. Good on him for taking advantage of his latest one; it may be that he’s got more of a future in the outfield or bouncing around the diamond than as a 2B fixture. The next Chris Taylor, with the original approaching free agency? maybe.
Fraudman: What kind of contract do you see Chris Taylor pulling? Seems like he’s lost a LOT of money in the past 2 months.
Jay Jaffe: he hasn’t been healthy lately, but I think he’ll be fine. Probalby something in the Zobristian 4-year range, maybe around $60 million.
Max Scherzer’s Third Eye: Did Scherzer and Buehler impact their Cy Young chances this week, or will voters largely ignore the starts since they were at Colorado?
Jay Jaffe: I think Buehler’s multiple rough starts have probably dropped him from the top tier in the eyes of voters, and still think people are overlooking Burnes.
But letting Ramiel Tapia upper-deck you, even in Coors, is never a good look if you’re trying to win a Cy
Guest: Re: NL MVP: He won’t win, but Trea Turner certainly deserves some votes. How would you account for the fact that he spent half the year on a different team? (It’s hard to say he was particularly “valuable” to the Dodgers while he was playing for Washington, after all.)
Jay Jaffe: I’m certainly not married to the idea that the MVP has to come from a contender. He was valuable to Washington, it’s just that most of his teammates (besides Scherzer and Soto, obv.) weren’t.
AnotherAnnoyingDodgerFan: Hi Jay! Thanks for putting out so much great content. Where do you think the Dodger’s priorities should be this offseason? If you were Friedman, with a large but not unlimited budget (assuming, for sake of argument, that Bauer and his money are non-factors), how would you handle and prioritize the 5 big FAs (I’m including Taylor and Jansen) going into the offseason.
Jay Jaffe: it’s such a tough call but Taylor and Jansen are clearly behind the others, with Kenley probably number five (sorry, man). it’s probably Kershaw and Scherzer ahead of Seager given the Trea Turner trade.
Tonight’s Lineup:
HITTERS H-AB RBI HR SB AVG
M. BettsRF 118-431 55 21 10 .274
C. SeagerSS 92-318 48 10 1 .289
T. Turner2B 179-558 63 22 31 .321
M. Muncy1B 117-468 90 35 2 .250
W. SmithC 104-390 73 25 3 .267
J. Turner3B 139-508 82 25 2 .274
A. PollockLF 107-360 59 16 9 .297
G. LuxCF 79-321 46 7 4 .246
T. GonsolinP 2-15 0 0 0 .133
Seager in seven seasons has accumulated 20 WAR, three per year on average, he has had many injuries that have prevented him from playing at his maximum potential but those are the cold numbers that he has, we all want him to stay and be a Dodger for life but with those numbers he is not a 300 million player.
Who had a wonderful month of October? yes, Arozarena had it too.
The one that worries me the most is Striker. Because after being unbeatable for most of the season, he has three outings where he has not been dominant and against the Giants and in 4 innings against Colorado his pitches looked very flat or ending in the middle of the plate.
I am anxious about both Buehler and Urias, given that they are both in uncharted waters with respect to their workloads this year. But not in the case of Scherzer. It seems to me that no one has picked up on what Tim Neverett said about Scherzer’s history of poor performances at Coors Field. Until he starts showing the same thing outside of Coors, I will not accept “tired” as the reason for what I saw yesterday.
I understand the strategy of resting players. but being a game behind, I think it is possible to win the division. If we play the Wild Card game and lose, what use will it be to have Urias or Warker or the other players rested? I think Dodgers have a lot more advantages playing a series than a single game.
I’d rather be Luxy than Bellinger! Thank our Luxy stars!
A case can be made that Gavin has been carrying this offense since his recall.
Exactly what we needed at the bottom of the lineup.
Batting .450 in September now.
Let’s ride the momentum from yesterday and sweep the Snakes.
Go dodgers!
I like this from what Bluto posted:
Can you think of another healthy player that has dropped off as much as Cody Bellinger? What is really going on there?
Jay Jaffe: Either he injured his shoulder and leg and has had trouble getting right since then, like many players before him, or he woke up one morning and forgot how to hit. Which do you think it is?
Is this pennant race fun or what? It looked for sure we’d be 3 back yesterday and lightening strikes twice. We’re down to one strike and pull it out and damned if the Friars don’t walk it off against the Giants. Unbelievable. I know we don’t get to slide into the playoffs in our Lazyboys, like previous years, but I find this much more fun.
* I don’t want to see Coors Field again for a long time. How do you pitch there? Urias had his worst pitching performance since July 21st and Scherzer had his worst outing since July 8th. I don’t see that as a concern; The place just eats pitchers. Cron’s goes 9 for 14 and Sam Hilliard came in hitting .201 and he went 5 for 9 in the series. Get me outta here!
* I love Scherzer but he needs his own chapter in the “How Not to Bunt” book. He’s such a competitive guy I’d think he would have worked on that more and be proficient at moving an important runner. Especially since he’s 0 for 50 at the plate.
* It seems like a broken record. complaining about Home Plate Umpiring but Ed Hickox was awful. He never established any consistent strike zone., at all. He was just flipping coins back there. I truly hope we are in the last season before the ABS System goes into effect.
* Have any of you followed the “Kiermaier and the lost card caper?” I thought I’d seen about every reason for someone to get hit by a pitch. But not refusing to give back a scouting card is a new one. The Ray’s Kiermaier picked up the the card during a play at home. The card had fallen out of the Jay’s catcher’s pocket. When the Jays noticed it was gone they wanted it back and sent the batboy over to retrieve it. Kiermeier refused. Finders keepers. So, the next day, in retaliation, the Jays plunked him in the back. The benches emptied with heated exchanges. The Jays of course denied intent. The pitcher was ejected and later suspended. That’s a new one for me. Plunked over a 3×5 card.
* Nice win. Nice to get out of Denver. Nice to get to Az. I’m sticking with my story since the all-star break. We’re going to win the Division.
Eddys Leonard definitely was a leader of the pack. He was introduced on LADT on June 30th. He was signed in the same class as Pages and Vivas.
Perfect beginning for Lux at CF. Only one fly ball at the end, in front of him & 2 ground balls. Never needed to get tested on tracking anything over the head at all which was my worry for him in the new position.
cheers
pb+
The next three games will be huge. I won’t jinx the Dodgers by saying anything. However, the Giants are now in that thin Mile High air. Where all great pitchers go to get hosed! Our two aces were roughed up some. Let’s see how the Giants fare? If the Giants execute there, it may be time to rest the wounded some. A final three with the Brewers albeit in LA, could be tricky! No idea how this will play out but I will light a candle in the church…
We may not have gotten our monies worth this year from the Boston duo but we absolutely don’t win the WS last year without Mookie! So it’s money well spent in my book and we didn’t pay Price last year and only half this year! And I guarantee you that his gift was well received by the minor leaguers!
Pete, Badger good morning.
One minute we’re about to go 3 games back, the next it’s one game and it’s game on. Gotta love baseball.
Before the season started I said that I didn’t much care for David Price in Dodger Blue.
He decided not to play at all last season, and this Spring Training he very quickly put his hand up for a role in the Pen. A former CY winner, much like his contemporaries CK, TB & Max S was happy to take a back seat rather than fight it out for a Starting role.
This did not smell right to me at the time, and I’m yet to be convinced otherwise.
In a season that we absolutely needed him to stand up to be counted, he didn’t answer the call, and is still not stretched out beyond 3/4 innings, when his pals in the Bullpen have been working overtime. Some teammate.
At no point in the season has he looked like he wants to be a part of things here in LA, to the point where he is already the forgotten man.
I doubt he makes the Post Season Roster because he really doesn’t have anything to offer, and at no point in the season has he looks like he is bothered whether he’s on or not.
I was told that he was a good guy because he gave the Minor Leaguers a handout last year. I wonder why he did that?
I stand by what I said recently that wasn’t well received. He doesn’t want to be in LA, knows he was a throw in on the Mookie deal, and is taking the money whilst doing as little as possible.
Unbelievable that people like AJP have been harangued for their performance and not earning their salaries.
$32 this year.
Update above – Thanks to Bluto!
Alright, let’s not get caught up on semantics. We’ve heard this song before.
The Giants might just lose a game or two or three over the course of the next week and half.
The way the Cardinals are playing, the Padres might be eliminated by the time we play them next week.
Gavin Lux is hitting 444 in September! He’s gonna be really good once he realizes that he belongs in the bigs.
Seager is getting hot as well, a cool 348 in September. He looks like he’s gearing up for another postseason run.
Damn, I sure hope the pitching gets it together soon.
2 of 3 from Colorado with no new injuries is just what the Doctor ordered. But, we better sweep the D-Backs because the Giants definitely have a scheduling advantage during the last 6 games.
The Dodgers should bring up White to start one of the games in the D-Backs series, then option him down and bring up V-Gone to finish off the schedule.
David Price has pitched just 3.2 innings in September. Why is he on the active roster? Evan Phillips has pitched just 4 innings this month.
Damn good win… Lets get those Gigantes… Go get em Tony G….
2 classic takes yesterday from our MLB expert and senior’s spelling bee champion, Dan “The Man” Estrada…
“Umpires are horribles” and last but not least… Drum Roll Por Favor…
Padres are HEAD 4 -0 but it means nothing, BECOUSE
surely Giants are going to tie it next inning.. crazy…Saeager is the only who hits the ball, by the way….fuck Justin Turner”
Really Dan the Man???
Full stop Mark you literally said it was time for the Dodgers to concede the division to the Giants. That is basically saying they should give up to any reasonable person. Stop backtracking!