There Will be no Baseball!

I read somewhere, I believe it was in The Athletic, that Minor League games have been closed to spectators because of the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Apparently teams don’t want scouts from rival clubs to see the “progress” prospects have made over the winter. They’re worried that “unprotected” prospects might be poached by another club. Since scouts and fans can’t be distinguished from one another, apparently, fans get screwed. Interesting theory.

I think 33% of players are overpaid.

I think ticket prices are too high.

I think food prices at ballparks are too high.

I think adults should get a beer ticket when they enter the gates that entitles them to a $5 beer before the start of the 2nd inning and let beer prices remain remain high without a ticket and after the start of the second inning.

I think parking is too high.

I think baseball caps sold at stadiums should not exceed $10.

I think time between innings are twice as long as they should be.

I think there are 10 franchises/owners that are preventing baseball from being played and should be called out.

Fangraphs on how far apart the two sides are:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/just-how-far-apart-are-the-league-and-the-mlbpa

GOT IT!

Don’t really need to be reminded though how MLB and MLBPS is robbing you of something you expect.

I get that too.

I would joyfully give up watching or attending baseball games in 2022

if Russia would get out of Ukraine.

We complain about the greed of owners and players because it effects us, fans.

How about we take a breath, pause and think about the reality of the freedoms we do have, freedoms only heard of by others around the world.

I think Putin is of more concern right now than Manfred and the Ukrainian people of more concern than a 2022 season.

Dump this if it falls under forbidden political commentary

but it just seems a bit self centered to be so fixated on our own personal pleasure and displeasure,

I would joyfully give up watching or attending baseball games in 2022

if Russia would get out of Ukraine.

We complain about the greed of owners and players because it effects us, fans.

How about we take a breath, pause and think about the reality of the freedoms we do have, freedoms only heard of by others around the world.

I think Putin is of more concern right now than Manfred and the Ukrainian people of more concern than a 2022 season.

Dump this if it falls under forbidden political commentary

but seems a bit self centered to be so self centered

Whomever – I just posted some thoughts and a link to an old LA Times article on replacement players in 1994. And it disappeared.

Just wondering what happened?

Here’s a link to an LA Times story about the use of replacement players in 1994

https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2019-08-11/mlb-1994-strike-anniversary-replacement-players-provided-comic-relief

My recollection of 1994 was that replacement players were has beens, never will be’s and guys looking for a last shot. Not up and coming minor leaguers who may feel an obligation to their big league brothers and refuse to be scabs. The animosity in 1994 for the scabs was strong and lingering. A few guys made it their opportunity to the Show but most were spurned and run off. It would be very interesting to see how many minor league players this day and age would be willing to fill big league rosters if the MLB owners decided to void contracts and move on.

I plan to keep as busy as possible. I am going today to see the new version of “Death on the Nile” Maybe I can figure out some way to get rid of Manfred! This is not fun. At this time of year we all should be enjoying the smell of the grass, crack of the bat, and the sound of balls hitting catchers mitts. The MLBPA and MLB are robbing us of something we have all come to expect every spring. I am not a business man. I know nothing of the inside operations of the game. I know they make a lot of money for both the players and the owners. I know I have spent thousands over my lifetime on MLB memorabilia and gear. Plus the concessions, tickets, and parking. I should be able to expect a little continuity in return. The price of everything has soared over the last couple of years. When you look back and see how much the salaries have increased over the years it is not hard to understand why prices are so high. Star players make more in a couple of weeks than some fans make in a year. Then you go to a card show and pay them cash for their autograph. Is it so hard to sit down and negotiate a deal and think just a little about the people who are footing the bill? A guy like Scherzer, who is set for life just can’t speak for all players can he? Baseball definitely needs to improve conditions for their minor leaguers. Baseball is the only sport where the contracts are guaranteed. Someone mentioned something about a 24 year old player making 750 thou a year and it being a lot of money, way more than college graduates start at. But some of those players make a lot more than that a lot earlier. Puig was what, 21 when he signed that 40 mil plus deal. Basketball players get millions thrown at them at 19, 20 years old. It has all gotten so crazy and the fans still fork over the cash like lemmings jumping off of a cliff. I love the game, and when I was younger, I had many different favorite players. I would go out of my way to get their photos and gear. I had a Duke Snider model bat, and a Gil Hodges firstbaseman’s mitt when I was 11. The last time I really had a player I could call a favorite was Garvey. Since then, I cheer for the name on the front, not the back. I still have a collection of baseball cards, mostly Dodgers, some reprints, some originals. Cards from the 50’s are pretty expensive. But I have the entire 59 team set. And a few cards that were produced of players on that team who were not in the Topps set. Wills, Churn, Sherry, Essegian. I have well over 100 bobbleheads. I bought maybe 30 of those. A few i got at bobblehead nights. The rest came from my brother. And Mark sent me a really nice one of Ernie Lombardi. But I am through spending what little free money I have for entertainment on baseball. If they come back, and right now I am not very encouraged, I am not getting my MLB package again. I dislike that I pay that much money and still have the games with the Rockies blacked out. In Iowa, some fans cannot see games of the 6 major league teams in their viewing area. All the streaming services have increased their prices. Amazon is 139 a year, Netflix is going up to 16 bucks a month. I get four streaming services, but my sis lets me use her accounts. There are no games on local TV here since the Rockies left Root Sports and moved to Sportsnet. So I would guess I am going to spend a lot more time researching stories, fishing and playing as much music as I can. Thank you MLB and MLBPA for screwing up my entertainment schedule.

Bill Madden Interview with Chris Russo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUSY-hLjzBM

Scott Boras, the richest Agent and Max Scherzer, the largest AAV this offseason blew up the deal. As Mark Pointed out, the deal was just about done, then Max came in and started yelling at everyone and squashed the deal.

MLB already conceded on raising the minimum salary which gives a huge raise to a third of all players, added a bonus pool, removed the qualifying offer and draft pick penalties, reduced additional taxes for going over the CBT and raised the CBT by $10M.

Boras is a piece of crap. Scherzer is another one. Glad he’s gone after choking at the end of last season. He’s damaged goods and the Mets will have to deal with 3 years @ over $40M for an old, injured pitcher.

Screw covid, screw Manfred and to hell with all of them.

On another front. Last year I theorized that the vaccines could possibly contribute to soft tissue injuries. I was roasted for that. Oh well. A new study may shed some light on this. It’s still early and the mainstream media is loathe to discuss this, but here is a new Swedish Study:

https://peckford42.wordpress.com/2022/03/01/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-goes-into-liver-cells-and-is-converted-to-dna-study/

Read it carefully… I have a feeling we will be hearing more about this. We were told this was not possible.

Mark makes some great points. I’ve also run businesses my whole life . People who haven’t often make some wild assumptions about profitability (apparently sports writer are no exception). Margins are fickle things. If your running with a net operating margin in the high single digits or low double digits, it doesn’t take much of an issue to go into the red. Especially when a business has high fixed costs (like a stadium lease and player contracts) verses variable costs (concession costs, stadium employees, other staff). I have no doubt there were many teams who lost money last year after all of them lost money in 2020.

Frankly, if it wasn’t for the Dodgers winning in 2020, this would have been the worst two years of baseball in my lifetime. The in person experience sucked in 2021. Covid restrictions were a combination of inconvenient and illogical. I went to three Angels games last year. It was expensive as hell, the concessions had to be ordered on an App and there is nothing like a 20 year old yelling at you to pull your mask over your nose when you have your hands full of food and drinks trying to walk down to your seat. It was terrible. I only went to minor league games the rest of the season. No such issues there.

I’m sure (but can’t verify) that many teams were unprofitable last year. The stadium capacity limits likely had a massive impact on the bottom line. Yet, the players had their salaries paid in full. The players don’t seem to be willing to recognize that.

So MLB owners have had two bad years in a row. Fans have had two bad years in a row. A shortened season without fans followed by a season with a combination of higher prices and a bad stadium experience.

Baseball isn’t in a good place, even before considering the issues of declining ratings and an aging fan base.

I have been equally hard on both sides. But I believe the last offer by the owners was fair. CBT being the one area where I believe the owners should have met the players half way. But I get the feeling the players simply don’t recognize , or care, what the sport and fans have gone through the past two years and all the challenges facing the sport going forward.

I owned two restaurants going into the Great Recession. By early 2009 they were both in the red. Sales down 25%-30% almost overnight. I had to lay off staff, cut hours and make substantial changes to all aspects of the business. I thought I had a adequate reserve (I didn’t). I had to sell off personal assets to make payroll on multiple occasions. Yet, I had employees who were extremely bitter for having their hours cut. I fully understood this was having a negative effect on them. But they didn’t seem to understand or believe me when I said the business was losing money. Payroll was never late and not a single check bounced. Yet, many employees (even long time employees) felt we were jut being cheap and protecting our profit at their expense. I have a similar feeling about the MLBPA right now. They aren’t living in reality.

On a side note. Some of the personal assets I had to sell were my lifelong vintage baseball card collection. It was valued at around $50,000 around 2010. I sold it for $15,000. It was comprised of a substantial number of high grade pre-war HOF players. Foxx, Cobb, Williams, Ruth.. ect. Since 2010, prices of vintage baseball cards have gone up about 10 fold. I almost want to cry even thinking about what that collection would be worth today. I did save most of my vintage Dodger cards. But sometimes employees have no idea just how bad things are for a business and to what length owners go to deal with losses and adversity. I sold assets to pay payroll for several months. That ultimately cost me at least $250,000 – $400,000 over the next 10 years in lost value.

My sympathy has shifted towards the owners, after yesterday.

Excellent comments today, gentlemen. Some astute takes on the absurdaty of these negociations.

Patch, I especially liked your comments like “In the grand scheme of things, the minimum salary argument, to use one example, is stupid. $650k vs. $750k/year means nothing. It’s just a number. Either way, it’s an insane amount of money for a 24 year old kid with a high school education. But, an issue like this will likely derail the season because one side has to “win.”

Mark, on a couple of occassions lately you have made a statement about the lack of revenue sharing; “Until they get some kind of revenue sharing, some teams cannot play that game. The haves can. The have not’s can’t!” Now I’m plucking this out of context perhaps but I thought there IS revenue sharing in MLB.

Teams presently contribute 48 percent of all local revenues, including gate receipts, local TV revenue, concessions, parking, sponsorships, etc, and the funds are then divided equally among all 30 teams. Teams receive more than $110 million through revenue sharing. So, I’m confused about your revenue sharing comments.

If the point is it behooves “have nots” to tank and to not spend it’s share of revenue on players, than I agree that’s a problem with an easy remedy. The CBT has a minimum of 100 million to a max of 220 million for salaries, with annual increases. Luxury Tax but no draft picks forfeited until $235 million and a 1st rounder forfeited at $255. There’s no reason why the 5 small market teams who get more than 110 million in revenue sharing shouldn’t have a 100 million required for player salaries (with a draft lottery to avoid tanking).

And I’m still dumbfounded over the Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool idea. I can’t believe the League has agreed to any bonus pool let alone 30 million. And the Union wants 100 million.

So let me get this straight. A “reasonable” minimum MLB salary might land at $700,000 a year using round numbers with yearly increments built in. For the 1st 3 years in the bigs, a players has to scrape by on 2.1 million plus. He’s then eligible for arbitration.

But wait! This really isn’t a minimum salary afterall. The players want another 100 million paid out to 150 players based on some voo-doo performance criteria and awards earned. So, 150 guys would make the $700K minimum PLUS another $666,000 (the 100 million pool split equally). So the minimum salary average for 150 guys could be close to $1.4 million. Now I know that bonus pool $ won’t be split equally but that’s not my point. My point is you have a minimum salary established for 3 years (or 2) but than you add to that individual portions of a 100 million dollar “slush fund” for 150 guys. To me that’s total bullshit. 2.1 million is plenty until a player gets to arbitration. And any impasse over a bonus to 150 players is more bullshit.

While I haven’t personally visited the minor league camps, the word around ny pool is that the facilities are closed to spectators wanted to watch minor league workouts. Fans were told it is a “covid concern”. I reakky hope they aren’t locking the fans out of minor league practice, as well.

Interesting tidbit that hasn’t been picked up. Manfred reportedly used language that the owners had made their “last best and final offer” This is a term of art in collective bargaining which means that once the offer is rejected, the parties are at impasse.

The ramifications of this are:

1 – owners can unilaterally impose terms and conditions of employment. They can order players back to work in which case the players could strike. Or the owners can continue the lock out.

2 – the union has stated that it wants to continue to negotiate. This means that they don’t believe that they are at impasse. Ultimately, the union can file unfair labor practices charges if owners refuse to bargain.

3 – thus far, even though management used the last best and final language, they have stated that they are still willing to bargain.

4 – once the last best and final language is invoked the feds can get involved and mediation is more likely.

The only positive thing I see is that if the season is not fully played or there is a strike, the Dodgers will have a very good chance of being champions… They will be known as the team that can only win in NOT COMPLETE seasons!

It’s hard to argue against tanking since some teams have done it successfully. Asking a team to carry a minimum payroll if they receive money from MLB and big spending teams is also fair.

If the players were actually concerned about MLB minimum salaries, they would cap the big contracts, both years and salaries. Maybe $25 million and five years, then raise the minimum first year pay to a million or $1.5 million, increase second and third pay accordingly. They won’t, of course. They want unlimited contracts and more money in the early years, the best of all worlds to players, agents and the like. They should use a system based on a percentage of revenue. As part of this, they should have to provide more money and housing for minor leaguers.

Not to point out the obvious, but baseball is losing relevancy. The game takes too long to play, lacks action and continues to cost more for families to attend. No question, fans are being ignored as all this plays out. So are the cities which built spring training complexes to lure tourist dollars. Not to mention the people who work at the stadiums.

At the same time, teams should be able to spend whatever they want on payroll without specific penalties attached.

The league should use a percentage of MLB outside revenue to provide funds to assist smaller market teams.

Okay, none of this will happen. Both players and owners living in a box. Probably reaching a deal is being held hostage by a group of owners, who are both shortsighted and greedy. For the good of the game means nothing to them. Do the fans really count? Do we believe MLB or the players actually care?

As someone who has followed the Dodgers since 1959 I am beginning not to care. It’s a two way street. After two years of a pandemic, masks, isolation, no one in seats to a step toward normal, now this nonsense. Why should any of us care? They obviously don’t care about us.

The player’s words would have more weight if they would agree to use a mediator now that most things have been agreed upon…

I read a very long winded article on DN this morning by perhaps the worst writer in all of sports, Michael Elizondo. He references a peice by The Athletic that explains the windfall the Braves received after winning the World Series. He states that their revenue hit a new record of $568M which generated $111M in profit. Their previous high in revenue was $476M. So, if you subtract the $111M profit from $568, you get $457 as a break even point. If their previous high in revenue was just $476M, you can extrapolate that they made just $19M in profit during their previous high! That’s not a lot of wiggle room. Sure, they’ll make more money this year and probably a couple more seasons after winning a World Series, but under normal circumstances, the money is not as much as people probably think. Aren’t the owners allowed to make money?

Of course the Athletic’s article doesn’t do the math, they try to make a case that the Braves can afford to sign Freddie Freeman since they made a nice chunk of change with that record $111M profit. But that wouldn’t even pay Freddie’s desired salary for 3 years, much less the 6 years that he wants. What about the 40 guys on the major league roster that also want a raise? What about the $130K raise for every player making the minimum?

I still think the owners should increase the CBT, but that would cut into revenue sharing for the smaller market teams.

It seems to me that the players want what they perceive as their fair share of every nickel that falls onto the floor. They say that there’s going to be more revenue from online betting. Well, the CBT is just for the next 5 years. How about waiting to see that revenue come in before they start grubbing for it?

So far, in just this offseason with 200 free agents still unsigned, 13 players received contracts of at least $50M. Of those, 8 of them have an AAV of at least $19.5M (Just about equal to the profits of the Braves, pre World Series Title). These are not perennial All-Stars. Gausman and Ray cashed in after one really good season. Eduardo Rodriguez has a career 4.16 ERA and is coming off a 4.74 ERA last season and got $77M guaranteed! Give me a freaking break. The players are paid fairly, really lavishly. You can tell by the gold chains around their necks and the cars in the players parking lot.

Line up the mediator and settle this thing you greedy SOB’s.

MLB Players will start losing $20 Million a day. Two weeks is $280 Million. The Union has a War Chest of a little over $170 Million. Do the math. If the owners play hardball and say “We absolutely will pro-rate everyone’s salary based upon the number of games played, not 162 games,” then it’s “Well, okedoke, let’s go back to work.”

The players cannot win this. It’s like Ukraine vs. Russia.

I think there’s a fundamental difference between the concepts of trade and conflict.

When two parties are negotiating a transaction there is the understanding that both sides need to benefit. One party is more likely to see things from the other party’s point of view. There is a higher likelihood of making a concession to reach an accord.

With conflict, one party sees the other party as a rival or an enemy. They are less likely to see things from the other party’s point of view. Their objective is not to reach agreement that benefits both sides, but to beat the other side; to win the war; to extract the most possible from their adversary.

Both sides are fantastically rich beyond anything that normal people like us could even comprehend. If both sides were willing to try to understand the positions of their negotiating partners and were willing to compromise without the need to “win,” a deal could be made in an hour.

In the grand scheme of things, the minimum salary argument, to use one example, is stupid. $650k vs. $750k/year means nothing. It’s just a number. Either way, it’s an insane amount of money for a 24 year old kid with a high school education. But, an issue like this will likely derail the season because one side has to “win.”

Because it’s a war, and both sides hate each other and see other as The Enemy, then they will dig in their heels and ultimately cut off their noses to spite their faces because they’re damaging the game.

Yeah, I’m sure Stripling is a smart guy, but when he makes noises about anticipating the plan of attack by the owners for the past five years, it’s disappointing. Has Ross Stripling been treated unfairly? It’s clear they don’t want to make a deal. They just want a war.

There’s a fog upon LA

And the players have lost their way

“It’ll be over soon” they said

Now they’ve lost themselves instead

Please don’t be long

Please don’t you be very long

Please don’t be long, for I may be asleep.