There is No Status Quo
We still have no clue what will happen this offseason, even though the rumors are rampant, and we still don t know what the Dodgers will look like in 2019. One thing I think is certain: They will look different than in 2018 the only question is HOW DIFFERENT? Some of you will be disappointed if Andrew Friedman doesn t sign Byrce Harper or trade for Corey Kluber. Others will be disappointed
We still have no clue what will happen this offseason, even though the rumors are rampant, and we still don’t know what the Dodgers will look like in 2019. One thing I think is certain: They will look different than in 2018… the only question is HOW DIFFERENT? Some of you will be disappointed if Andrew Friedman doesn’t sign Byrce Harper or trade for Corey Kluber. Others will be disappointed if they don’t trade Puig and Kemp, but in reality, the only way you can trade Matt is take back a bad contract, and you never know how that will pan out. Matt Kemp loves being a Dodger and could be even more motivated than last year to get a new contract. He says he wants to play 3 more years.
So, let Kemp and Pederson platoon in LF – you could do a lot worse than that. The two should yield 30-40 HR again. Yes, Matt is an overpay, but he is beloved by his teammates and is a great guy to have on the team. The Dodgers know what they have and I would be surprised if Matt Kemp is not on the 2019 Opening Day roster (barring injury).
I said early in the offseason that the Dodgers don’t need much. They have a young team with some vets mixed in and have been to two consecutive World Series. They are among the favorites to get back there. Of course, Friedman is “in on” Harper. He has to drive the price up, but I do not believe Bryce Harper will wear Dodger Blue… unless he is bound and determined to be a Dodger and is willing to take less money. That’s the deal. I don’t see Kluber either and a Realmuto deal should not include Ruiz, Verdugo or Lux. So, that is looking more unlikely.
When the Dodgers traded for Jimmy Rollins, I wrote that it was a mistake as Seager was ready… and he was. In 2017, I told you Bellinger was ready. Buehler in 2018 and now for 2019, I am telling you Verdugo, Lux and Ruiz are also ready…. at least by Mid-Season. Write it down. I said it. I meant it and I’m here to represent it! Verdugo is the most ready, but Ruiz is growing by leaps and bounds – physically, mentally and skillfully. His footwork has dramatically improved and he is a quick learner. Baseball is his gift. Lux is also close and Verdugo, Lux and Ruiz will likely all benefit from the Dodgers new hitting program led by Robert Van Scoyoc (RVS).
I have tried to trade Puig every year… although I must admit I like the knucklehead, but now is the time to keep him. He is going into his final season on this contract and should be motivated to listen to RVS and company. He could have a very good year and then the Dodgers will give him the QO and he will turn it down…. ANOTHER PICK!
Right about now, the two players I can see traded are Stewart, Toles and Wood. The Dodgers need to improve internally, not by trading for “different” pieces. I am fine with what they have now… although it is fun to speculate. If nothing else happens, at least they did not make any dope-fiend moves… and there worse things than bringing Yasmani Grandal back on a 1 year/$9 million deal.
Other News
The Athletic has another piece on hitting today. In part Peter Gammons writes:
Hyers and hitting guru Robert Van Scoyoc had a major influence on Martinez and several others. Their concepts included being “on plane” with the ball rather than simply trying to create launch angle. They preach “following the ball” after contact, lessening effort in the swing, making adjustments for the opposing pitcher and the situation. “Correctly implemented, launch angle and exit velocity are important,” one general manager says, “but in the end, runs created decide games. The notion that RBIs are not important is silly. Sure, season totals of RBIs include a lot of variables, but when games are there to be won, RBIs count.”
For an oft-used example, in the third game of the ALCS in Houston, the Red Sox faced Dallas Keuchel. They had a clear idea of how the Cy Young Award winner would pitch them. Betts made like Pete Rose and knocked a single through the middle. Andrew Benintendi knew a ball down and away was coming and slapped it just over Alex Bregman’s head down the left field line. The cleanup hitter Martinez knew Keuchel would do a Tom Glavine and offer up a changeup down and off the outside corner, and Martinez dumped the ball over first down the right-field line. The Red Sox were up two runs in four batters before the Astros even got up in their home park.
So we go back to the first and foremost scientist of hitting: Ted Williams. He preached adjusting with two outs “because two-out runs are such a huge part of the game.” Enter what he called the “push swing.”
For an oft-used example, in the third game of the ALCS in Houston, the Red Sox faced Dallas Keuchel. They had a clear idea of how the Cy Young Award winner would pitch them. Betts made like Pete Rose and knocked a single through the middle. Andrew Benintendi knew a ball down and away was coming and slapped it just over Alex Bregman’s head down the left field line. The cleanup hitter Martinez knew Keuchel would do a Tom Glavine and offer up a changeup down and off the outside corner, and Martinez dumped the ball over first down the right-field line. The Red Sox were up two runs in four batters before the Astros even got up in their home park.
So we go back to the first and foremost scientist of hitting: Ted Williams. He preached adjusting with two outs “because two-out runs are such a huge part of the game.” Enter what he called the “push swing.”
Here’s the part that should give Dodger fans a lot of hope:
Enter Van Scoyoc, Brant Brown and Aaron Bates as the Dodgers’ new hitting coaching and preparatory staff. “Our approach was not very good,” says one Dodger official. “The players were taught through the system to try to launch on every pitch. It just doesn’t work against good pitching. Justin Turner (another Van Scoyoc guy) is fine. But look at our postseason.”
Gammons ended with:
There is no reason Joey Gallo needs to strike out 207 times in 500 at-bats, or Chris Taylor 178 in 536 at-bats. They’re too good. And in Taylor’s case, a team that has made it to the World Series the last two years shouldn’t essentially have as many games when they score three or fewer runs as the Rays.
You should get a subscription to The Athletic. Next to LAdodgerTalk.com, it has the best writing in the business. 😉
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Discussion (107)
Disagree, not disagreeable
You’re right! The team is good enough right now to go back to the post season again. Last year was a weird one with the “Slow Start” Spring Training (No doubt another bad Farhan idea) that carried over into a slow start in the beginning of the season, piling up intra-division losses against Arizona and SF. The loss of Seager early, Bellinger and Taylor’s regression and the worst year ever for Clayton Kershaw all contributed to the Dodgers under performing early on.
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As you mentioned, Puig and Kemp in a walk year and Bellinger returning to mean will improve production in the outfield. Seager and one of Taylor, Kike, Muncy at 2B will certainly improve an infield, although I have Muncy penciled in at 1B and there’s a good chance for regression. Fortunately for us, there’s two really good bats that just happen to play 1B that were added to the 40 man in Rios and Beaty, so there’s a big insurance policy there, not to mention Freese. Grandal is a big hole offensively at catcher. Hopefully Barnes will get closer to his 2017 than his 2018. Can Farmer actually catch?
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I think the pitching staff will be stronger than last year. We added a great backend piece with Kelly and the arrival of Bueller coupled with the return of Urias makes for a three headed monster, at some point after Urias’ innings limit. Ryu and Hill are no slouches and Stripling and Wood should fit well in just about any rotation. Jansen will return to form without the lazy spring training and heart scares.
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Like you said, there are still spare parts that need to be dealt away. And the lineup is a little too left handed. And the more I think about Harper and Machado, the more I like waiting for Arrenado. Even though I still think Harper is destined to be a Dodger. I choose to believe the reports that he wants to be here. If that’s the case, both sides will compromise and come to agreement. Sorry Bryce, you just haven’t done enough to deserve the longest and biggest contract ever.
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Less than 100 days to opening day. Today is the shortest day of the year, so every day will be a little bit better starting tomorrow.
I agree with you Mark. The Dodgers have a good team as is with enough depth to replace a hitter that might have been a one-hit-wonder (Muncy, Taylor). Verdugo either spends more time in OK or pushes a player off the 25 in spring training.
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I am ready for Verdugo to take over RF and would like to trade Puig to the Reds for Raisel Iglesias. He is signed through 2021 with an AAV of $8M. I assume the Dodgers would have to add a solid reliever to the package, maybe Santana. Other players as needed.
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If Muncy winds up being the long term first baseman then Bellinger becomes the long term CF. Lux will soon be either the SS or 2B long term for the Dodgers. Joc and CT3 might be a good LF platoon in LF but Taylor is too young to get only 30% of the starts and if he got more, neither player would stay sharp. CT3 is a mid-season trade chip but for now is insurance for CF should Muncy not repeat 2018 and Bellinger moves back to 1B.
Jurickson Profar to the A’s. Three team trade. Profar still has 2 years of arbitration and is projected at $3.4MM in 2019.
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A’s send to Texas – 24 year old 2B who was at AA last year (A’s #17 prospect)
A’s send to Rays RHRP Emilio Pagan and the A’s 38th overall pick (compensatory pick)
Rays send to Texas MiLB LHP Brock Burke, MiLB LHP Kyle Bird, MiLB RHP Yoel Espinal, and international bonus allotment.
Rangers send to Rays MiLB RHP Rollie Lacy.
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It now appears that Lowrie will not be going back to the A’s.
I would be disappointed if Machado or Harper wore Dodger Blue this year. Neither one of them have what it takes to be a Dodger. Skill, of course, attitude NO. I complained about Machado’s attitude last year, lack of hustle and general demeanor. The reply was , we need to take the bad with the good. No we don’t, and there wasn’t enough good anyway.
I honestly suspect the same would be true of Harper, maybe not lack of hustle but his attitude I do not think plays well with the Dodger way.
And I agree that we have the potential as it is to field a great 2019 team, a WS team.
A new hitting philosophy and back to the basics on the bases and in fielding your best 8 players day in and day out will be the game changers we need.
Not ” dope fiend ” moves that will again set us back not move us forward.
Verdugo, has a bit of the attitude that could be problematic, but is young enough and hungry enough that he likely will listen to the veterans who can guide him.
Bring him on. And I sure would like to see Toles in that outfield and running those bases at Chaves Ravine in 2019.
IF, if, if Harper really wanted to be a Dodger he should take a 10 year, $150M contract with an opt out after one, two, and three years. That way he could opt out after 2019 and renegotiate a contract with the Dodgers et al when the Dodgers have $80M coming off their payroll. It protects Harper should he get hit by a bus or reenacts Tommy Davis or Matt Kemp injuries in 2019. If he flops in 2019, he gets two more chances to play for the big contract. Takes lots of pressure off Harper, helps him with the fan base in 2019, and makes him a Dodger. He could ask for a $20M signing bonus in 2020 to make up for the Dodger discount in 2019.
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I’m sure the Dodgers could clear $15M off their payroll in 2019.
We seem to be good enough to play in the World Series but can’t get over the hump. We need a catcher, 2nd baseman and one more top of the rotation starter if we want to get over the hump. Muncy at 2nd base? Maybe for a few games but not a full season. Go Blue
Saw this article by JP Hoornstra in the Daily News. I have no idea how reliable a stat called ‘clutch’ is but results do sort of fit with what we all complained about last year. It is that slow time of year.
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Open on www.dailynews.comhttps://www.dailynews.com/2018/12/19/inside-the-dodgers-who-were-the-most-and-least-clutch-dodgers-of-all-time/–
“Yasmani Grandal and Yasiel Puig (-4.0) are particularly un-clutch. Duke Snider (-4.1) was even worse. Gary Sheffield (-4.5) is worse than that. But the absolute least clutch Dodgers of all-time are still on the team’s roster: Joc Pederson (-4.6) and Matt Kemp (-5.0). How about that: Four of the six least clutch hitters in franchise history were on the team last year.“
Other than Buehler what starting pitcher can be counted on to start more than 25 games or pitch more than 150 innings? Kershaw had 26 starts and 161.1 IP but has landed on the DL for significant time for the last three years. Anyone who has a bad back knows that they just do not go away. Kershaw works harder than anyone on the team, and you know his core cannot get any stronger. So, what are the chances that he stays injury free in 2019? But let’s stay positive and project Kersh at 30 starts and 180 IP.
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Okay, now there are two. What about the other three starting pitchers? Doc has already anointed Hill, Maeda, and Ryu to be the three going into to ST.
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Hill – 24 starts, 132.2 IP (5.5 IP/GS)
Maeda – 20 starts, 125.1 IP
Ryu – 15 starts, 82.1 IP
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They are going to need somebody to step up, but who? But wait there is that one pitcher that nobody other than a handful of us think positively about…Alex Wood. Yes, that Alex Wood who led the team in starts with 27 and would have led the team in IP had he not gone to the bullpen. As it was he was still #2 in IP with 151.2. I continue to be asked, but what about his drop in velo? I have no idea, but it could be as simple as pitching from the stretch instead of a windup. But, I agree that it could be a concern, but what about Kershaw’s drop in velo? If pitch velocity was the most important factor, then why is Greg Maddux in the Hall?
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BTW, how is Stripling going to have that break out year as a long reliever and spot starter? I am sure he is thrilled that Friedman thought so much of his 2018, that he went out and spent $18MM on a pitcher that pitched all of 82 innings last year, while he goes back to the bullpen.
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What can possibly be gained by Verdugo going back to OKC?
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Who is going to catch? Right now it is Barnes and Gale. Regardless as to which backup they eventually sign, they are not going to match Grandal’s WAR. Ruiz is 20. Future HOF catcher, Yadi Molina was 21 before he got significant (more than 100 PA) playing time. Contreras was 24, Realmuto was 24, Grandal was 23. Even Salvador Perez was 21 before he came up with a very poor KC team. And yet Keibert Ruiz is going to come up in a pennant race and make a significant impact? That is a lot of optimism. I have no doubt that he is the catcher of the future, but he has as much of a chance of being a significant backup this year as Grandal hitting those 40 HRs.
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Other than Joe Kelly, what bullpen improvements can be expected for what was considered the biggest weakness on the team? Or can we expect more of Daniel Hudson, Zac Rosscup, JT Chargois, John Axford, Erik Goeddel, Pat Venditte, and hope one can stick.
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So this is the bottom line thinking – The Dodgers lose back to back WS, lose their starting catcher, add an at times excellent power reliever but with way too many wild streaks, and a hitting coach, and that is going to give them the 2019 WS? What are the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Cardinals, Nats, Mets, and Rockies thinking? Those owners are going to their GMs and ask why they didn’t just go out and get a bunch of platoon players, sprinkle a couple of legit AS, and bring in a new Hitting Coach.
My point is, i believe we can do well without Harper and Machado, well my point is I wouldn’t want either one. But I think we need, obviously a catcher with a bat, and another ace or near ace. Then we are a WS contender. Ok let’s get another reliever too.
A couple hot takes…
This is my first post on ladodgertalk..
Some of the best Dodger discussions happen on this site from what I can tell…
So I thought I would give my inside scoop to everyone…
Verdugo will be on the 25 man roster come opening day as a starter, AF does not want to include Verdugo in a trade, contrary to all the “rumors” everyone has been hearing, Dodgers are trying to get rid of Puig and Kemp as we speak, if no one wants Kemp there is a very good chance Dodgers will release him.
Dodger FO believe Verdugo is going to be the next Corey Seager, and tbh I do as well
Ruiz and Lux are not as “ready” as people may think, FO believes they need at least a year or more to develop at the higher levels of the minors, to show that they can actually succeed at a certain level of pitching, but they will be good and might get some opportunities in Sept.
Seems like a realistic goal nonetheless.
“Right about now, the two players I can see traded are Stewart, Toles and Wood. ” ???? Is this what they call new math?
I agree with you AC, not sure what we have done to improve and one could argue we are a worse team then the one that played Boston. Lost our starting catcher, added an erratic set up man, lost an all star shortstop and are adding an all star shortstop who is coming off two major surgeries. I also don’t see Muncy and Kemp repeating there 2018 performances. There are bounce back candidates but definitely so many wild cards that could regress even more. My point is to get back for a third straight year, which in itself is near impossible, will take a stronger team then we previously had. A game changer is necessary and I don’t care if it is a little “dope fiend.” We are a financial beheamouth that should be able to easily recover from a bad signing or trade. Plus another move or two around the peripheral to shore up other holes. Get it done Friedman, unless the powers to be are not allowing you too??? I guess we will find out soon
Big trade coming with the Reds!
Accoding to Jeff Passan:
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds are finalizing a significant trade, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. Multiple major league pieces expected to change sides.
Report: Dodgers, Reds “Finalizing A Significant Trade”
By Jeff Todd | December 21, 2018 at 3:27pm CDT
The Dodgers and Reds are “finalizing a significant trade,” according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Details are not known, but it’s believed to involve “multiple Major League pieces.”
We’ve heard of prior talks between these two organizations on a variety of intriguing scenarios involving some big names and big contracts. Just which ones are now slated to be moved remains to be seen.
Kemp, Puig, Wood dealt to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey and minor leaguers
We also get righty Josiah Gray too.
Are you saying the Yankees will get Harper, and trade Stanton to the Dodgers?
I don’t think we have got that far yet, because I checked the Marlins, Yankees, and Harper, at MLB trade rumors already.
Well, I’ll be hornswaggled! Just when you think Friedman is standing pat… BOOM!
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It looks like Harper is coming… maybe Kluber too.
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To trade bthe untradable Kemp… well, that is amazing!
If Bailey is paid and released how does that effect our 2019 payroll?
Are you talking about Harper to the Yankees, and the Yankees trading Stanton, to the Dodgers?
I already checked Yankees, Marlins, and Harper at MLB Trade Rumors, so I don’t think they are that far along yet.
I mention Stanton because we now have 1 legit right handed hitter on our team, JT. To go with Muncy, Belly, Seager, Joc, Verdugo, etc.
I would not be shocked if we trade for Stanton, who after NY pays down some of his salary, would be cheaper than Harper (and may be a better player).
On its own this is a horrible deal for LAD. The Dodgers do get one good (2B/SS Jeter Downs) and one decent (RHP Josiah Gray) prospect in the deal, and free up $23MM in CBT threshold space. I know Mark is going to try to sell Homer Baily as the next Brandon Morrow, but he could just as easily be DFA. What pitcher loses their spot to the worst pitcher in MLB? This is obviously a move to sign Bryce Harper.
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The Reds on the other hand get an Ace (for them Wood is an Ace), and two OF that should LOVE hitting in Cincinnati. The Reds have just made themselves relevant, and the Dodgers are obviously now waiting on Harper.
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Well I have to delete what I was writing for tomorrow and start a new post.
We know there’s more to come now…
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Harper? Stanton? Maybe the Dodgers send Rich Hill to the Yankees for Stanton? Then, the Yanks sign Harper.
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Verdugo for Kluber or in a deal for Realmuto?
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I am astonished that this happened!!!