There is No Status Quo
We still have no clue what will happen this offseason, even though the rumors are rampant, and we still don t know what the Dodgers will look like in 2019. One thing I think is certain: They will look different than in 2018 the only question is HOW DIFFERENT? Some of you will be disappointed if Andrew Friedman doesn t sign Byrce Harper or trade for Corey Kluber. Others will be disappointed
We still have no clue what will happen this offseason, even though the rumors are rampant, and we still don’t know what the Dodgers will look like in 2019. One thing I think is certain: They will look different than in 2018… the only question is HOW DIFFERENT? Some of you will be disappointed if Andrew Friedman doesn’t sign Byrce Harper or trade for Corey Kluber. Others will be disappointed if they don’t trade Puig and Kemp, but in reality, the only way you can trade Matt is take back a bad contract, and you never know how that will pan out. Matt Kemp loves being a Dodger and could be even more motivated than last year to get a new contract. He says he wants to play 3 more years.
So, let Kemp and Pederson platoon in LF – you could do a lot worse than that. The two should yield 30-40 HR again. Yes, Matt is an overpay, but he is beloved by his teammates and is a great guy to have on the team. The Dodgers know what they have and I would be surprised if Matt Kemp is not on the 2019 Opening Day roster (barring injury).
I said early in the offseason that the Dodgers don’t need much. They have a young team with some vets mixed in and have been to two consecutive World Series. They are among the favorites to get back there. Of course, Friedman is “in on” Harper. He has to drive the price up, but I do not believe Bryce Harper will wear Dodger Blue… unless he is bound and determined to be a Dodger and is willing to take less money. That’s the deal. I don’t see Kluber either and a Realmuto deal should not include Ruiz, Verdugo or Lux. So, that is looking more unlikely.
When the Dodgers traded for Jimmy Rollins, I wrote that it was a mistake as Seager was ready… and he was. In 2017, I told you Bellinger was ready. Buehler in 2018 and now for 2019, I am telling you Verdugo, Lux and Ruiz are also ready…. at least by Mid-Season. Write it down. I said it. I meant it and I’m here to represent it! Verdugo is the most ready, but Ruiz is growing by leaps and bounds – physically, mentally and skillfully. His footwork has dramatically improved and he is a quick learner. Baseball is his gift. Lux is also close and Verdugo, Lux and Ruiz will likely all benefit from the Dodgers new hitting program led by Robert Van Scoyoc (RVS).
I have tried to trade Puig every year… although I must admit I like the knucklehead, but now is the time to keep him. He is going into his final season on this contract and should be motivated to listen to RVS and company. He could have a very good year and then the Dodgers will give him the QO and he will turn it down…. ANOTHER PICK!
Right about now, the two players I can see traded are Stewart, Toles and Wood. The Dodgers need to improve internally, not by trading for “different” pieces. I am fine with what they have now… although it is fun to speculate. If nothing else happens, at least they did not make any dope-fiend moves… and there worse things than bringing Yasmani Grandal back on a 1 year/$9 million deal.
Other News
The Athletic has another piece on hitting today. In part Peter Gammons writes:
Hyers and hitting guru Robert Van Scoyoc had a major influence on Martinez and several others. Their concepts included being “on plane” with the ball rather than simply trying to create launch angle. They preach “following the ball” after contact, lessening effort in the swing, making adjustments for the opposing pitcher and the situation. “Correctly implemented, launch angle and exit velocity are important,” one general manager says, “but in the end, runs created decide games. The notion that RBIs are not important is silly. Sure, season totals of RBIs include a lot of variables, but when games are there to be won, RBIs count.”
For an oft-used example, in the third game of the ALCS in Houston, the Red Sox faced Dallas Keuchel. They had a clear idea of how the Cy Young Award winner would pitch them. Betts made like Pete Rose and knocked a single through the middle. Andrew Benintendi knew a ball down and away was coming and slapped it just over Alex Bregman’s head down the left field line. The cleanup hitter Martinez knew Keuchel would do a Tom Glavine and offer up a changeup down and off the outside corner, and Martinez dumped the ball over first down the right-field line. The Red Sox were up two runs in four batters before the Astros even got up in their home park.
So we go back to the first and foremost scientist of hitting: Ted Williams. He preached adjusting with two outs “because two-out runs are such a huge part of the game.” Enter what he called the “push swing.”
For an oft-used example, in the third game of the ALCS in Houston, the Red Sox faced Dallas Keuchel. They had a clear idea of how the Cy Young Award winner would pitch them. Betts made like Pete Rose and knocked a single through the middle. Andrew Benintendi knew a ball down and away was coming and slapped it just over Alex Bregman’s head down the left field line. The cleanup hitter Martinez knew Keuchel would do a Tom Glavine and offer up a changeup down and off the outside corner, and Martinez dumped the ball over first down the right-field line. The Red Sox were up two runs in four batters before the Astros even got up in their home park.
So we go back to the first and foremost scientist of hitting: Ted Williams. He preached adjusting with two outs “because two-out runs are such a huge part of the game.” Enter what he called the “push swing.”
Here’s the part that should give Dodger fans a lot of hope:
Enter Van Scoyoc, Brant Brown and Aaron Bates as the Dodgers’ new hitting coaching and preparatory staff. “Our approach was not very good,” says one Dodger official. “The players were taught through the system to try to launch on every pitch. It just doesn’t work against good pitching. Justin Turner (another Van Scoyoc guy) is fine. But look at our postseason.”
Gammons ended with:
There is no reason Joey Gallo needs to strike out 207 times in 500 at-bats, or Chris Taylor 178 in 536 at-bats. They’re too good. And in Taylor’s case, a team that has made it to the World Series the last two years shouldn’t essentially have as many games when they score three or fewer runs as the Rays.
You should get a subscription to The Athletic. Next to LAdodgerTalk.com, it has the best writing in the business. 😉
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Discussion (107)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The official transaction includes $7MM going back to Cincy making the $23MM CBT threshold reduction down to $16MM. That will put the Dodgers at about $23MM to $24MM short of the threshold. Unless they are willing to go over the CBT threshold, Harper is not coming to LA.
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I am glad that Kyle Farmer was included. I hope he gets a legit shot at a 25 man roster position. Plus he stays with his college teammate and very close friend.
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The Dodgers now have 38 on the 40 man.
A Stanton deal makes sense.
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Would the Dodgers trade Bellinger and Verdugo for Realmuto? I hope not.
Yanks have already met with Manny. They will want to dump salary before they sign Harper or Machado. Stanton and Judge play the same position. It makes too much sense to ship off Stanton and get rid of his contract.
From our standpoint, it’d be smarter to buy low on Stanton’s contract, with NY paying off some of his $28mil a year. It wouldn’t cost us a ton in prospects either; these 2 dudes from Cincy can fly from Cincy to LA right back to JFK!
I have no illusions about Homer Bailey being Brandon Morrow… even the old Homer, but his velocity is back to 97-98 two years after TJ. Maybe Honeycutt can do something. .. It doesn’t seem likely to me that the Dodgers will cut him… unless he really is done.
Wow, I love Puig and Kemp, but realize it’s time for them to go. I keep hoping to see a return of Puig’s one year of greatness, that isn’t going to happen in Blue. He made some awesome plays in the field, and missed twice as many cutoff men, but he was so exciting. How can someone so fast be so bad at stealing bases, often at the most inopportune times. He can turn a single into a triple! But oftentimes turns them into outs at second base.
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Kemp’s homecoming started with a bang, but failed to have a storybook ending. He slumped for most of the second half and was the forgotten man in the playoffs. It looked as though he would take the everyday spot in left. Then, it looked like he would be a productive compliment to Joc’s biggest weakness, left handed pitching.
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When Alex Wood decided to ditch the windup last year I thought it was a stupid idea. But even more, I thought he was just plain stupid. See ya later Alex, you came up big in the 2017 post season and I will always admire you for that.
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This can’t be it. Something is going to happen. Welcome Bryce?
As per Bill Plunkett:
Under the radar part of trade — Kemp, Wood, Puig were 3 of the more unhappy Dodgers re: platooning/overstocked rotation.
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LAD wanted to lessen that element in clubhouse atmosphere next year.
If you take just Kemp and Bailey alone, their AAV’S are similar. Kemp has an AAV of $20 million and Bailey’s AAV is $17.5 million. Basically two untradeable players were swapped for each other, with the Dodgers saving $2.5 million on the number that counts for Luxury Tax purposes. If memory serves, between the two players the Reds save on the absolute salaries paid in 2019.
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My guess is that Kemp and Puig will greatly benefit from playing in the Great American Bandbox.
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Jeter Downs is listed in the 2018 Baseball America Prospect Handbook as the Reds’ #11 rated prospect. He was chosen by the Reds with the 33rd overall pick in the 2017 draft.
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I believe that Josiah Gray was drafted in the 2nd round in 2018.
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The inclusion of Puig and Wood frees up approx. an additional $20 million. Clearly the Dodgers created payroll flexibility to allow for additional moves, maybe for Harper, maybe somewhere else.
Will certainly miss Puig, Wood and Farmer but felt that Kemp’s lack of defensive capacity cost Dodgers runs far to often, especially since I still feel the NL is won with defense and pitching. I think that Bailey will be at Spring Training and will follow the same set-up the Dodgers used with Morrow. Saw him pitch extremely effectively against the Dodgers the latter part of 2018 and he may prepare for ST like Kemp in 2018 and surprise us all. Read somewhere that Indians and Reds had been discussing trade options recently and wonder if the MiLB prospects the Dodgers received from the Reds were wanted by the Wahoos. Package those two with Joc (to provide the much needed OF) and Ferguson (to replace Miller) and perhaps Kike and I think a deal for Kluber would be possible.
Ken Rosenthal is tweeting that Baily is going to be released. 40 man will be down to 37.
I will wait and see the completed roster before I make up my mind. On the surface an organization like the Dodgers who lead the league in attendance and have that much TV money shouldn’t have to dump that much talent to get so little in return. I don’t care about Kemp although and offseason of not having to lose 40 LBs might help. If we moved Puig to sign Pollak, I would rather have Puig. I don’t buy he can’t hit lefties. Wood is a good pitcher. I don’t get why he dumped his wind-up. I never will, but I will always remember his 2017 season and blowing away Houston in the WS.
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I do think Harper is coming, but replacing Kemp and Puig with Harper and Verdugo makes the team way to lefty heavy which makes me think Verdugo is still in play for either Kluber or Realmuto and then the Dodgers sign Pollak to even out the lineup. If that’s the case I think dumping Puig is stupid.
This trade only makes sense (trading two of three RH bats), if there is a part two and hopefully a part three. We still need a catcher (Realmuto – yes, Barnes???, Grandal for 1 year – no), 2b (Muncy is not the answer), a RH bat (Stanton – yes, Harper – no), and another #1 SP ( Kluber). We wait.
Hawkeye
I am sorry about Puig.
I know you and others, really enjoyed watching him play.
I expect Gray and Downs may not get to play in the Dodgers system. If a trade with Miami is in the works they may well be trade chips. Both are young – Gray (21) and Downs (20) and rank 20 and 7 respectively on the Reds Top 30 prospect lists.
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Mark’s dominoes are starting to fall.
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I really hope Farmer will get a shot as Scott Schebler did with Cincinnati.
I liked puig and wood
Dodgers got Kelly too
The trafe make sense only if stanton is comming
I do not believe the Dodgers will release Bailey. Let him go to ST to see what he has. If he has something left, how about the bull pen. You can always release hm in ST.
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I would start the year with Barnes as our catcher. I cannot see losing good young prospect to bring in Realmuto when Ruiz is very close to being ready.
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Kluber is another story. I do think we need to trade for him. However, the Dodgers need to say no if Verdugo is who they want.
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I still do not want Harper. He is not a Dodger. Besides, he is a left hander.
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The Dodgers gave up three players all in their last year of their contract. Somebody said they were all disgruntled became of the substitution the Dodgers did last year. I hope this platoon system ends. Bellinger has to also be unhappy with his playing time last year.
The Dodgers didn’t have a big role laid out for Kyle Farmer in 2019. Of the catcher position, Andrew Friedman said, “I still expect us to add someone from the outside.”
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Andrew Friedman laughed when asked to characterize Yasiel Puig’s Dodgers tenure.
“That,” he said, “is a very deep question.”
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“We really like Joe’s ability to give us one-plus innings,” Andrew Friedman said of new reliever Joe Kelly. “He will be used in creative ways by Doc and Honey to take down more than three outs depending on the game situation.”
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Andrew Friedman said the Dodgers liked Josiah Gray “a lot” going into the 2017 draft. That’s usually a good sign that they want to keep him. Plenty of teams liked Downs in the draft too, and Friedman sounded like he’d be extremely content to keep him.
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Friedman noted the surplus the Dodgers had in OF/SP and how today’s deal helped gain flexibility and strengthen the system. “We still feel like we have a really good team but feel like we want to continue to add to it before we get to Spring Training.”
Interesting trade. Like AC, I have always liked Wood and thought he was a lot better pitcher than given credit for. Clearly something happened after the 2017 All-star game that caused a major down-tick in velocity and command. I truly hope he gets shine as a full-time starter in his new environment. I’m ambivalent as to Puig and Kemp. At times I thought each player was as good as can be and at other times, very frustrating. Jon Weisman articulated my thoughts about Puig, better than I can put words to paper(as he always does).
Open on www.dodgerthoughts.comhttps://www.dodgerthoughts.com/2018/12/21/yasiel-puig-dodgers-memories-farewell/.
I will also miss Farmer. While not a great player, he was always a great interview and truly fine young man.
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The dominoes have started to fall Mark! Let’s see what tomorrow brings.
I have been out of pocket so reading this I am excited to see next moves. A salary dump in part but the reds got a few good pieces. I loved kemp being a Dodger but the second half it looked like he gained his weight back. I still think kemp helped la and especially wrecked Arizona and he got to the ws so he earned some salary. Puig I liked and he did well in the playoffs. He was exciting but I personally think he wore out his welcome. The Dodgers were constantly rumored to trade him so something wasn’t right. Wood, he had his moments and one great year but the Dodgers didnt have a rotation spot for him this year. Farmer did some clutch hitting but didn’t figure for la. It helped the dodgers gain some financial flexibility, the prospects will probably be part of another trade. The Dodgers still need a bat and preferably right handed. I just don’t know how Harper fits. I could see Verdugo used to get Kluber or Realmuto. I still think it makes more sense for the Dodgers to target stanton. If the Yankees got rid of Stanton they could get Harper and Machado. Realmuto would be a rh hitter but would not be enough. I guess they could use Taylor and/or kike to platoon in left with joc and sign lemay. I don’t like pollock too injury prone. I am satisfied that there must be more to follow. Exciting!! Go Dodgers!!
Part of the trade of Homer was that he would be released, with a $7mil buyout. So, $17mil would not count. A salary dump by Friedman. Can’t wait to see the next domino fall!
So far, the big winner is Homer. Be great if he now signs with the Reds at $1M+ for 2019.
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I think the Dodgers made room for Kluber’s contract and will not be in on Harper.
Pedro Moura has a good take in The Athletic.
So the reds paid 7million for 4 players while giving up 2 class a minor leaguers. Kemp and puig could hit 45-50 homers in cincy. Wood probably good for 10-12 wins. The dodger trades seem more neutral than anything. We give up a lot of production for a shot in the dark but the payroll flexibility could be huge. It really underscores just what little value puig and wood represented. I don’t know how to value the prospects but apparently nada. It looks like Friedman couldn’t even dump wood and puig salaries much less get anything. Somebody please tell me what I am missing.
I would really hope that we are not in on Harper. Save some cash for Arenado next year and get Pollack on a one or two year deal, give Verdugo the keys to right field, and take a shot at Kluber or Realmoto. I will observe a moment of silence while you guys get the Harper pixie dust out of your eyes…. He is not a savior, not even an outfield need. Verdugo is a much better defender and is a contact guy. Can you picture Harper buying into Doc’s “sacrifice for the good of the team” mantra? Hell no. The last year or so I have read from Mark, AC, DC, and other well versed guys on this site, and when all is said and done, like a chorus, WE NEED STARTING PITCHING AND BULLPEN HELP!! We all blew up FAZ, and they paid the price last season, by going for Manny Moe instead of good bullpen arms when there was quality help to be had. We all know good pitching beats good hitting 90% of the time. All you have to do is look at what Eovaldi and Kelly did to us. I want that game over feeling by the 7th inning from our bullpen. Screw the marquee hitter, give me a lights out nasty fastball with a disappearing slider late inning reliever any day of the week.