I was all ready to post this piece and then came to realize that I miscalculated a major portion of it, which goes to show you, always do your research “before” writing.
Initially I believed that Trevor Bauer’s suspension of 324 games would be retroactive to the date of his suspension of July 2, 2021, which would mean he would be back in action by the end of June this coming 2023 season. Now I come to find out that the earliest he can return is about 20 games in to the 2024 season, after his three-year deal with the Dodgers has expired. This probably explains why no none is talking about him for 2023. Bauer’s suspension is absolutely brutal and one that is in the appeal process.
When I was on the management side while in the work force, I dealt with a bargaining unit and unfortunately had to dole out some discipline on occasion for misbehaving employees. Negotiations on suspensions were just that, negotiations. The union I would deal with had some clout. Suspensions would invariably be reduced through the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. If I had a guy that committed an offense, I’d review the table of offenses and recommended the agreed upon punishment for what he did. Usually something like a five-day suspension without pay would be “negotiated” down to two or three days, sometimes less depending on the case and how compelling the argument was.
It is the same with MLB. 90% of the time, the suspensions are reduced. They almost always meet in a timely manner, now the face-to-face meeting at MLB offices in New York can be done via zoom call. This Bauer case is unprecedented in the length and delays to get this over and done with. The complications caused by the severity of the accusations, the legal process that moved at a snail’s pace and the huge amounts of money involved have turned it into a nightmare.
In the end, MLB will probably have to pay up and big time, but why prolong the inevitable? Get the appeal over and done with. It almost makes me believe that Commissioner Rob Manfred has some sort of personal vendetta against the Dodgers. We know he does against the outspoken Bauer who has never held his opinion back. The personal animosity between the two has clouded Manfred’s judgment in a way that will be extremely detrimental to MLB, because they are going to pay. Unless there is something more that they know that hasn’t been exposed to the public. Legally, Bauer is in the clear of all criminal charges.
I pose this question to everyone because I simply don’t know. This is primarily meant for those that are well versed on the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) and those with some legal expertise in sports and labor law. Does Bauer have a chance to get this thing cut by 100 games or perhaps more?
There was a hearing in May of this year with MLB where a lot of evidence was provided to Bauer’s attorneys. That evidence was not made public. Perhaps this is the hold up, as they go through it all and the matter is further complicated by civil suits that Bauer has filed against a number of parties. A full two-year suspension without pay for violation of the MLB domestic violence and sexual assault policy is simply massive and when compared to other similar cases (Antonio Osuna, Aroldis Chapman, Starlin Castro, Carlos Martinez, Sam Dyson), the two-year ban seems very excessive.
There has been no discussion about the Bauer situation by the Dodgers, and that is probably wise because you don’t want to be dependent on an issue that you cannot control. However, if the suspension could be shorted with a Bauer return at mid-season, he would be an amazing addition to the rotation, possibly saving the ball club from dealing off prized prospects at the trade deadline when they are looking to shore up weaknesses in the second half.
As far as I can tell, Trevor Bauer has maintained his physical conditioning and has a tight workout regimen. One thing that has not been addressed will be his rustiness as it is rather unprecedented to have a perfectly healthy player return to action after being inactive for two years of live games. If he returns in 2023, this will be uncharted territory that the Dodger brass will have to watch closely. How closely they can do so before his return is questionable due to the suspension.
Based on Bauer’s twitter feed, he is active pitching to live hitters, though none are of Major League quality. His latest video addresses how to maintain velocity through good health, exercise, weight training, elasticity and a consistent throwing program. All of which Bauer has continued through his 1 ½ season absence thus far. Is it possible that after a two year lay-off and the lack of a season’s wear and tear, that he will come back stronger at age 32? I believe that it is. He could be a true difference maker in the pennant stretch if added to the roster.
There will be the distractions, but Bauer’s controversial nature over the years leads me to think that he could care less about the boos or fan reaction. He has always been a villain of sorts, and he feeds off of that. The guy is a knucklehead and terrible at reading life situations, so there is that factor that he will do something stupid again. Even if innocent of the accusations, Bauer was dirt stupid for putting himself in the situation that he did, and he has paid a heavy price for it. The question remains is if he has learned his lesson.
Additionally, there is the issue with his teammates. Will he be a clubhouse pariah? Will his teammates, many of whom undoubtedly have wives/girlfriends that have voiced disdain for Bauer, will they be able to whole heartedly perform with this guy? Bauer will probably need to have a clubhouse meeting to clear the air, apologize for adversely affecting three Dodger seasons and seek out support from within. It would be very interesting to see how that all plays out.
If allowed to play, there will be millions of dollars dedicated to this guy for at least half the season, so it’s time for the Dodgers to get something out of him for the money they shell out. It is also time for Bauer to show some contrition as well as respect for the team and fans by performing to the standards of that massive contract.
There are a lot of “ifs” here, and the Dodgers seem to be quite well stocked with young arms, even with a few departures this off-season, but adding Trevor Bauer to the mix could be a real difference maker.
I haven’t gone in to discuss the details of the allegations made against Bauer, mainly because I don’t know all the facts. Nor do I know if MLB has additional accusations against him from previous interactions with women. What I do know is that the penalty was maybe the most severe ever levied to a player, save banishment from the sport.
Bauer’s legal team continues to take a proactive stance as he has filed five civil suits for defamation against the original accuser, her lawyer, two journalists (one being Molly Knight of The Athletic), and a publication.
A few weeks ago, Curt Schilling opined on the Dan Patrick show that “he’s never going to play again,” basing that statement on the corporate nature of the game and the belief that the sport is catering to fans that may boycott sponsors over allegations of sexual assault and/or domestic abuse. Schilling added that the game is unforgiving of situations such as Bauer’s that have embarrassed the sport.
“In this day and age,” he told Patrick, “It is not going to get better for him. People aren’t suddenly going to start saying, ‘Oh, it’s in the past.’ There are some things that we don’t have second chances in for any capacity – things with children, things with women and abuse. We don’t give second chances to people like that.”
Based on the Schilling statements, is it possible that Bauer never steps foot on a major league diamond again? Will any clubs take a flier on him after his contract is up? Perhaps it’ll be like Barry Bonds, who was forced to walk away from the game in the midst of steroid use accusations after the Giants let his contract lapse. No one wanted to touch him, and he had just broken the home run record.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Andrew Friedman seems to have moved on with plans for the team that don’t include Bauer, but we all know there has to be that alternative plan in his mind in the event that MLB lifts the suspension. If it does happen, the Dodger rotation will receive a number 1 type starter that is well rested, major league seasoned and hungry to prove himself once again.
Discussion (37)
Disagree, not disagreeable
According to Yahoo Sports Taiwan, multiple MLB organisations are eyeing university pitcher 沙子宸 (Sha Tzu-Chen).
The Dodgers, Pirates and Athletics are showing interest in the 19-year-old Taiwanese right-hander.
Jon Morosi reporting better than 50-50 chance Bellinger is traded or released by 5pm PST
Goldschmidt and Judge win MVP awards, Mariner’s trade Lewis to the D-Backs for Hummel, We will know the Bellinger situation tomorrow.
The comments on the youtube video already show that public perception has been altered seemingly everywhere but here. 😉
More on Bauer:
(I missed this one: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christianred/2022/09/29/while-trevor-bauers-arbitration-case-continues-pitcher-files-motion-to-dismiss-accusers-counterclaim/?sh=4c9025e730d0
Let’s not forget about this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmkLAwbPhlg
I think Schilling is wrong!
If Bauer keeps pushing his case, the woman might be charged with false reporting, perjury, and other crimes. That is rate but it does happen. Here’s an example:
https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-york-woman-20-who-lied-about-rapes-appears-to-roll-her-eyes-in-court-as-shes-jailed-for-a-year
If Bauer’s accuser is charged with anything, it will tend to alter public perception.
This smells “fishy” to me:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/matt-davidson-signs-japan-npb-hiroshima-carp.html
Interesting read in the LA Times on Bauer:
https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2022-11-17/trevor-bauer-dodgers-rusty-hardin-roger-clemens
I hope he stays.I have been very frustrated with him.But I have with every player.
What is an Associate Manager? Is that a fancy name for bench coach or is Bruce only staying for one year and grooming Will V.
Well what’s everyone’s call on Bellinger? If the Dodgers release him what kind of a deal does he get?
When the Dodgers signed Anderson he was perceived as long reliever and spot starter.
Then he became an all-star–and sustained the quality for the entire season.
If he sustains this level of performance for the Angels, he’s a steal.
I agree that the Dodger rotation is talented but fragile. In 2022, nobody proved as durable as Anderson.
Dodgers really don’t need another SP given all the talent on hand. But I’d be surprised if AF doesn’t seek a significant upgrade.
If Burnes is really on the market, how about Pepiot plus Jackson plus a prospect bat like Ryan Ward?
Verlander wins A.L. Cy Young for the 3rd time. Per Rosenthal he links him to the Dodgers
I think Roberts has a lot more to complain about his players this Oct than his players have to complain about him! And I agree with you patch. Youth and reset!
After the Dodgers won the WS Friedman was quoted as saying the Dodgers were going to be “pigs.” I think that’s what he said. I don’t want to go digging around for the quote.
The implication was that AF and the Dodgers were going to go all in and try to win multiple WS in the next few years. First he did a somewhat unconventional Friedman thing and signed Bauer (although the front loaded contract fit AF’s aversion to long-term financial commitments). First, Bauer blew up in the Dodgers faces. Secondly, after the best regular season in Dodgers history they got ignominiously jettisoned from the playoffs by a team they owned during the regular season.
I have a feeling AF might switch gears a little and go with a quasi youth movement and possibly reset the cap this year. Why spend that much if, in the end, there is so much left to chance in the playoffs? Just field a very good regular season team and not necessarily a historically great one and your chances will be about the same … and you’ve reset the cap.
I find it funny that no one gave a damn when we signed Tyler Anderson, but everything wanted him back so strongly. I really don’t care. He’s got a great change and a mediocre fastball. Guys like that are a crapshoot. Moving on to the next guy.
Urias is putting up every year. He’s a solid No 2 / borderline Ace.
Kershaw is putting up when he’s out there.
Gonso turned the corner, but I don’t ever trust his health.
Dustin May started 2021 like an Ace. Hopefully, he comes around. But, his floor is a number 3.
All of these pitchers will probably put up better numbers than Anderson next year. I can really care less that he’s not on the team.
This is a very good start to free agency with Pepiot and Grove backing them up and better arms very close in Stone and Miller. They can certainly go into the season with what they have.
Anderson opted for security in taking the 3 year, $39 million deal over the $19.65 million QO. I think it is a reasonable choice by Anderson, although it does show he was unwilling to bet on himself.
My bigger issue is with Friedman not locking Anderson up on a smaller 2 or 3 year deal prior to offering the QO.
Friedman had exclusive ability to negotiate with Anderson prior to Nov 10th. We will never know for sure, but my guess is that Anderson would have taken 3 yrs/$35 million or 2 yrs/$25 million from the Dodgers prior to receiving the QO. Once Dodgers gave him the QO, they let him negotiate with all other teams knowing that worst case, he could just take $19.65 million for one year. Friedman lost most of his leverage when the QO was given.
But Dodgers still have plenty of options to add starting pitching and Friedman usually makes the right calls.
Thanks for the great year Tyler, and good luck with the Angels.
You guys are the best posters in all of the baseball blog world. Bravo! Spirited repartee varied and quite strong opinions. I love it. There are a lot of things I do not know about baseball. Especially the minor leagues and how the big club evaluates its minor league talent. But sometimes it seems to me, at least when Campanis was the GM, that most tend to place a higher value on their players than what they are actually worth. Now, Miguel Vargas has hit at every level he has played at. His MLB tenure is way too short to make a real evaluation of what the end product will be. As Mark always reminds us, progress is not linear. Justin Turner did nothing special his first 6 tries at the major leagues, starting with his age 24 season. At the age of 29, he signed with the Dodgers as a non-roster invitee. He made the team out of spring training as a bench player. A utility infielder who could play 2nd or 3rd. He had re-tooled his swing during the off season and it helped him win the job. A year later he was more or less, the regular 3rd baseman. JT has been a cornerstone of the team. In all his seasons, he has played more than 150 games twice. But in the postseason, except their last two trips there, he was very productive. The last few years he has been more injury prone and missed time. But it took him a long time to become the player he has been. Vargas is 6 years younger than JT was. Let’s see what he does with a full spring training with the big boys and a season or two under his belt before we make any assumptions as to what kind of player he will be in the long run. Anderson took the security of a three-year contract over the money of a one-year deal. No one can blame a guy for looking out for his family. Verlander is not coming to LA. Get over that idea. It was reported today in MLBTR that he is seeking a Scherzer type deal. Not happening in Los Angeles. The only reason Curt Shilling is not in the Hall already is Curt Shilling’s big mouth. Toronto traded Teoascar Hernandez to the Mariners for two players. Showalter beating out Roberts is atypical of the way the voting usually works. He and Roberts actually had the same number of first place votes, but it was the second-place votes that put Showalter ahead. Personally, I believed Rob Thompson should have won for the job he did in Philadelphia. Both Showalter and Roberts had powerhouse teams that were expected to win their divisions.
I think the Contract Anderson signed shows that he did not want to “bet on himself.” In other words, maybe he has doubts that he can replicate what he did last year?
Lot’s of good stuff here. First off, excellent and entertaining read Evan. You articulated the Bauer issue very well and raised questions that many of us are thinking about.
I always thought the truth would come out about Bauer and he would be set free. But, never underestimate the corruption of people who hold power.
Yes, I also think that Manfred has a thing for the Dodgers and especially Bauer. Manfred’s treatment of Bauer might have cost us two World Series. Suspending a player based on nothing more than hearsay should be enough to get him fired. In a just world, Manfred would be the one that doesn’t have a job.
Cassidy, don’t say things like that, I wouldn’t want to see you have problems with you brake lines as a result.
Duke, you’re really going to die on that hill about Vargas? You’re digging in saying that Outman is better after 4 games in the bigs and go against all evaluators? That’s a really silly position to take.
It’s fitting that Doc lost out on Manager of the Year to a guy that did slightly worse. It’s dripping with irony.
Tyler Anderson is an idiot. He could have taken the $19.65M, have a decent year and a good chance to pitch in the postseason. Instead he signs on the first day of free agency to play for a shitty team for significantly less AAV. Super Dumb! Maybe he didn’t like the early hook.
I like how this worked out for the Dodgers, they get a draft pick and like the Athletic article says, they work their Devil Magic on someone like Taillon, or pick up a Verlander or DeGrom… So true!
The decision on Belli will be out in just two days now. Can’t wait to put that one to bed.
Back to Vargas and Outman. Time will tell if either deliver. I’ll say this about Outman. He’s done pretty well considering what they had to do with his “Caveman Swing” and turning him into the hitter he is today. Yes, he strikes out a ton, but so does just about everyone else. If you don’t like how much Belli and Taylor strike out, you’re not gonna like Outman and Busch either. Vargas intrigues me because he’s the opposite of these players. He’s a line drive machine that has a natural talent for hitting. He was in horrible shape when the Dodgers were courting him, I think I heard he pulled a happy while trying to run, was labeled as being unathletic and a bad fielder, then he got into shape and turned his baserunning around completely. He’s known to be a baseball rat with a high baseball IQ. Those are things that are said about guys with great baseball instincts. I’m really excited to see what he’ll do.
The Dodgers have a ton of flexibility, prospects that can be traded, and money to spend in free agency. Be patient and we’ll have something to talk about eventually. It’s a long offseason and it’s barely starting.
I don’t think Manfred has a vendetta against the Dodgers. I think it’s just the opposite. He did them a favor by trying to get them off the hook for Bauers’ salary. If his suspension gets reduced, which it probably will, then I agree,they have a tough decision to make.
Well who was responsible for Epstein’s “suicide”? A lot of very powerful people were involved in his ugly world! Congrats to Doc for his second place finish in manager of the year voting. I guess no one here was voting!
Hi Bluto – hope you’re well.
You peaked my interest with your Schilling comment, so I had a read.
You’ve always said that Bauer is going to struggle to get back in the game, and I’d always wondered why, although you’d articulated it here.
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/curt-schilling-trevor-bauer-never-play-baseball-again-not-going-get-better-for-him.amp
This article had me re evaluate a little. You could well be right. Schilling says, like you always have that it doesn’t actually matter if he did it or not, it’s about perception.
I guess I’m Old School, where if you’re innocent of something, then stand your ground and clear your name.
Evan, I guess this what you meant about apologising, that it shows contrition and acknowledges mistakes in judgment that have brought others into disrepute.
Personally, if Schilling (and Bluto) are correct, I fear where we are heading and wonder what sort of a world we are moving towards. Certainly not a better one.
I’m not sure I could ever apologise for something that I felt I hadn’t done, as Bauer hasn’t , but perhaps in his case he and his people are confident that by not admitting any wrongdoing, he will have a much stronger case against MLB and Manfred when this inevitably moves towards legal action.
Sorry to see Tyler A move on, I thought he was a bit under appreciated, and with more trust, ie pitching in game 2, we might have seen a different outcome to the Padres humiliation. Shame AF didn’t throw an option for a second year on his deal.
With regards to our Starting Pitching, i sincerely hope Mark is correct about Gavin Stone being ready, as that would be a huge plus, especially with the news from Evan today that we definitely won’t be seeing Bauer in Dodger Blue again.
Maybe Tyler is an idiot!
I’ll take the draft pick… thank you very much.
1. Urias
2. Gonsolin
3. Kershaw
4. May
5. Stone
6. Pepiot
7. Miller
8. Bauer
I’m good!
Tyler Anderson will Rue the Day he signed with the Angels.
Well, I batted .800 on the players the Dodgers would protect. I predicted Ramos would be protected, but I think AF is gambling that he is a couple of years away, and no one will risk taking him. Some people think highly of Duran… I am not one of those.
DODGERS ADD FOUR TO 40-MAN ROSTER
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers added catcher Diego Cartaya, infielder Michael Busch and outfielders Andy Pages and Jonny DeLuca to the 40-Man Roster.
Cartaya, 21, split the 2022 campaign with Great Lakes and Rancho Cucamonga last season, hitting a combined .254 (92-for-362) with 22 homers and 72 RBI in 95 games. The 2022 Dodgers Branch Rickey Minor League Player of the Year began the season with Class-A Rancho Cucamonga, slashing .260/.405/.550 with nine homers and 31 RBI before getting promoted to Great Lakes on May 31. He was one of three representatives in the Sirius XM Futures Game at Dodger Stadium and finished the season with High-A Great Lakes, clubbing 13 homers and driving in 41. He has been with the Dodgers organization four seasons, hitting a combined .269 (178-for-661) with 36 homers and 125 RBI in 175 minor league games. He was originally signed on July 2, 2018, as an international free agent out of Maracay, Venezuela.
Busch, 25, spent the majority of the 2022 season with Triple-A Oklahoma City, batting .266 (118-for-444) with 32 doubles, 21 homers, 79 RBI in 111 games. He started the season with Double-A Tulsa, hitting .306 with 11 homers and 29 RBI before being promoted on May 17. He has been with the Dodgers four seasons since being drafted with the 31st pick of the 2019 First Year Player Draft out of the University of North Carolina. In his 259 minor league games with the Dodgers, he has amassed 52 homers and 177 RBI while slashing .267/.374/.493.
Pages, 21, spent all the 2022 season with Double-A Tulsa, recording 26 homers and 80 RBI in 132 games for the Drillers. The outfielder was a member of the 2022 Arizona Fall League runner-up Glendale Desert Dogs, playing in 22 games, hitting .296 (24-for-81) with two doubles, five homers and 14 RBI. He signed with the Dodgers as an international free agent out of La Habana, Cuba and has played in 367 minor league games, hitting 86 homers and driving in 259 runs while recording an .897 OPS.
Deluca, 25, split the season between High-A Great Lakes and Double-A Tulsa, hitting a combined .260 with 25 homers and 71 RBI. He began the season with Great Lakes, hitting .245 with 18 homers and 51 RBI then finished slashing .298/.359/.606 with seven homers and 20 RBI in 25 games with Tulsa. In 225 minor leagues, he has hit a combined .263 with 48 homers and 148 RBI. He was drafted by the Dodgers in the 25th round of the 2019 First Year Player Draft out of the University of Oregon.
Dodgers are protecting (and adding to the 40-man) the following:
Cartaya
Pages
Busch
DeLuca
Surprising not to see Ramos on that list and also a little surprising not to see Duran.
Ramos may not be far enough along that any team would be willing to take up a roster spot on him for a full year but someone might take a chance with Duran.
Also possible that one or both of those players is about to be part of a trade.
Good move by the Angels.
Really good.
Seems like a perfect fit: a solid and improved veteran to complement their youthful rotation. Last season, Angels paid a $21 million for a single year of the star potential of Syndergaard…. and wound up trading him after hopes imploded. Now they pay $13 mil per year for 3 years. Seems like a good investment.
The fact that AF didn’t match or exceed the Angels’ offer may show the confidence that the Dodgers have guys like Stone, Miller, Pepiot, etc.
I don’t think the Dodgers brass is suddenly frugal. Will AF try to bring back Heaney? Will he push harder for Senga or another free agent? Maybe pursue Burnes in a trade?
I don’t think the Dodgers will stand pat with its SPs.
Tyler Anderson could be remembered as the one who got away.
And don’t see much better for Busch, tho one commentator once called him the next Albert Puljos! If we sign just one big time FA, who would it be?
Eric, those numbers I think would be on the high side for Outman. I see him in the .230-.240 range. Maybe .750 OPS. I’d love to be wrong tho!
I think letting Anderson go means we still have a shot at trading some of our excess young pitching plus others to get like a Pablo Lopez type.
He’s on the verge of being a #2 type, and with our coaching staff, he could be a great get
Well, looks like a bad start to free agency for the Dodgers.
Let Anderson go to Angels for 3 years, $13 million a year.
Seems awfully reasonable for a solid starting pitcher. Astros paid almost that much for Montero who is a reliever with career war of 0.1.
Let Justin Turner walk instead of exercising option or inking a contract prior to him hitting free agency.
Did not make an early offer to Trea Turner, and instead let him hit free agency.
Did not lockup other in house free agents like Heaney, Martin, Kahnle on a proactive basis.
Nothing done on Bellinger with 3 days until non-tender deadline.
Maybe the Dodgers are going for the full reset this year.
3 year at $39 million = $13 AAV. That seems like a fair deal and wondering what the Dodgers offered or if they even negotiated to that stage yet. Makes me think the Dodgers are going big game hunting in the FA SP market or are truly going “all in” on the youth movement with SP and saving $$ for other positions like Judge or TT. If Bellinger is non-tendered it’s because they are prepping a monster offer to TT.
Tyler anderson signs with anaheim
Yesterday Cassidy said Outman would be average if given a shot next year and it would be catching lightning in a bottle if Outman was better than average. Well it depends on what you consider average. If given a full year I see Outman with a .270-.275 average and 22-25 HR.
For what may be the first time since the epic bloody sock game, I’m with Schilling on this.
Thanks Evan for an interesting read. I too had no idea that TB would be unable to Pitch next season.
Some observations. To be fair AC (Jeff D) raised the issue of a “Personal Vendetta against both Bauer and LAD a while back.
Nothing that has happened since has changed my mind.
Also, with regards to an apology if he plays again. Why? What does he need to apologise for?
For being the victim in a sting? For being wrongfully accused of assaulting a woman and consequently having his name and career being ruined? For not being prepared to accept a lesser punishment if he pleaded guilty to something he didn’t do? For standing up for himself?
Shouldn’t it be that Manfred and MLB apologies to Bauer for getting things SO wrong and for the ridiculous amount of time the whole fiasco has taken?
Isn’t it today the we see if Doc gets NL Manager of the Year?
That should cause some conversation.