The State of the Dodgers

After losing the series 2-1 last weekend to the Dark Side the Dodgers are in fine shape. The hitters have been in a funk since after the All-Star Break, but it hard to keep focused when you are 20+ games ahead of the nearest team in your division and are about to clinch a playoff spot in August.

Dave Roberts has dialed-down the intensity and is resting players as much as possible… even encouraging them to come late to the ballpark and skip BP. The Dodgers are on Auto-Pilot for the next two weeks. It’s just impossible to maintain the intensity every day. If they did, they would be mentally exhausted by the playoffs. So, you are going to see some good things followed by bad things for the next couple of weeks. Let’s look at the different aspects of the team:

The Infield

Around the horn, the infield is in pretty good shape, save the fact that David Freese is still on the IL. It is hoped that he will be back in early September, still, Andrew Friedman believes in Plan B, Plan C and Plan D. That is why he acquired Jedd Gyorko who rakes against LHP. Well, really he acquired Tyler White, but when that didn’t work out, he went to Plan C. Freese is still Plan A at 1B against LHP, but Jedd is getting an opportunity in case he can’t make it back.

If Gavin Lux gets called up, it may not be until September or possibly, August 31st if they want to preserve an opportunity for him to be on the playoff roster. I can’t see the downside to that, but he appears to be a longshot right about now. Justin Turner has been utilized judiciously and is finally healthy as is Corey Seager who is quietly getting his stroke back. Seager is finally starting to hit like he is capable although the home run power is lagging – It may be next year when that returns, but he is tied for the lead in the NL for doubles.

Max Muncy alternates between 2B and 1B this season, but next year is likely to stay at 1B as Gavin Lux takes charge at 2B in what may be Justin Turner’s last season. This is likely David Freese’s last Dodger season as well, as the procession of youngsters arrives. Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor are both semi-regular utilitymen in the infield and outfield. Hernandez is a little more flexible but both can play solid defense just about anywhere.

CT3 is the Dodgers’ best hitter with RISP and Kike is one of the Dodgers hottest hitters in the past week. Both will be on the playoff roster. Of course, that is barring injury. Matt Beaty also has a great shot at making the playoff roster but is not a lock. I could envision a scenario where he loses out to Gyorko. Cody Bellinger is a part of that infield alignment, but with his defensive value in RF, I would not be shocked if he played ZERO innings at 1B in the postseason.

Next year, besides Gavin Lux at 2B, I don’t see any infielders being ready. Jeter Downs is another year away as are several others including Cristian Santana.

The catcher is part of the infield the last time I checked and that position is in the hands of Will Smith, who has cooled-off from his incredible start. He has 12 HR and 31 RBI in just 96 AB’s but is hitting .217 in his past 7 games. Hopefully, he will heat up for the playoffs. Unless he is injured, Russell Martin will back him up as Austin Barnes is the odd-man-out!

Martin is talking retirement and Barnes will likely be traded or non-tendered, so the Dodgers will be looking for a backup catcher next season. It won’t be Kaybear Ruiz who is still working on transforming his swing. He is such a contact hitter that the process is entirely different from the process Smith went through. Smith took to the revamped swing-path like stink on a goat. It remains to be seen if he can be a high-average hitter, but I would not bet against it. If Bumsrap tells me he saw this coming, I am going to have him pick the lottery numbers for me.

Right about now, Smith is solidly entrenched as the Dodgers starting catcher going into the 2020 season. Ruiz could be ready by the halfway point, but that’s far from certain. Martin could be a possibility or any number of career backups.

The Outfield

Things are a bit cloudy here as Alex Verdugo is at least a couple of weeks away with his oblique strain. Of course, Cody Bellinger is the best RF in baseball and AJ Pollock is solid in CF. He can still go get it. Personally, I think Alex is better in CF, but AJ has the reputation and experience. If Alex is healthy, I can see Joc in LF, Alex in CF and Cody in RF against RHP. With lefties on the mound, it might be Taylor in LF, Pollock in CF and Belli in RF. This is especially true if Freese is healthy.

Again, Matt Beaty is part of the equation as is Jedd Gyorko who can play LF. Kike Hernandez can play all three spots and play them well, so he is the Swiss-Army-Knife. It will be a battle between Beaty and a man named Jedd.

The Starting Pitching

This week will be key to Rich Hill’s recovery as he starts throwing curveballs which creates more strain on his arm. He is making progress, but the curve will tell the tale. If he passes all the tests, he may make two or three rehab starts to get “stretched out” which means it will be late September before we see him. Four or five innings are about all we can expect from him. If he can’t cut it, Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin might get the call, but it could be Maeda.

Ideally, Hill can regain his form and fill-out the starting rotation of Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, and Hill… in that order. Ryu looks tired right now and the Dodgers have gotten their money’s worth from him. Rich Hill will likely not be back, but May and Gonsolin arrived a year early and are both knocking on the door for a spot in the rotation, as is Josiah Gray. Across three levels this season (low A, High A, and AA), Jo Jo has an 11-2 record with a 2.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and has allowed but 96 hits in 129 innings to go with 145 K’s. The youngster has only walked 29 and allowed but 3 HR. I can easily see him in the rotation next year.

In fact, the Rotation could be Kershaw, Buehler, May, Gonsolin, and Gray. Three Rookies? Highly unlikely, but it could happen. Gray is way ahead of the curve and his MLB timetable. If the Dodgers win it all this season, I could see a “youth movement.”

The Bullpen

We watched the bullpen do their job last night, and Dustin May was very good last night until the 3rd time through the order. It was nice to see the bullpen do its job. May has amassed 130 innings over 3 levels this season which is the same number of innings he had his first two years. He may get another start, but I think he will pitch a lot out of the pen the rest of the season. In the future, he has “workhorse” written all over him.

For the playoffs, the best-case scenario is that Rich Hill returns and can be the 4th starter. That puts May, Gonsolin, and Maeda firmly in the bullpen, where they have a few weeks to get acclimated. Dylan Floro allegedly was drawing raves in his bullpen session on Monday. It turns out he has not been healthy all year. If he can get his 2018 form back, it will be a big boost to the pen.

By the way, the Dodgers just passed San Francisco and moved into Fifth Place (5th) in Bullpen ERA, and no inherited runners scored. I know this does not fit some of your narratives… so you have nothing to say, but it’s the truth! By the way, they are second in the NL.

Kolarek did his specialist job last night. Yimi Garcia looked very good and he seldom looks very bad… usually just 1 pitch! Sader closed out the Padres’ final inning. It’s possible all three of those pitchers could be on the playoff roster. Of course, Jansen, Baez, and Kelly are locks. Caleb Ferguson’s rester spot is up for him to seize.

Alexander, Chargois, and even Ross Stripling are unlikely to make the playoff roster. Next year: I look for Ross to be traded. He deserves to start and it won’t be in LA. Dennis Santana, Marshall Kasowski, Jordan Sheffield and maybe even Mitch White could be options in the bullpen.

There is a lot of baseball to be played in order to determine the playoff roster and injuries will undoubtedly play a role. The team is playing with a malaise right about now, but you also need to understand the Yankees were 3-6 in their last 9 games before they played the Dodgers. Players slump. Teams slump. You just hope they don’t slump in the Playoffs.

Rants & Raves

• Pollock, Muncy, Bellinger, Smith, and Taylor sounds like a high-powered law firm. Actually, they were and 0 for 19 and should be arrested for impersonating a hitter… which is a felony in this state of the union. I think Cody is mentally taxed. He should sit for two games to clear his head.
• Quick: Which NL Shortstops are having a better season than Corey Seager. Only three: Story, Turner, and Baez. Watch out, Corey is rolling!
• Gavin Lux took the collar and now sits at .400. The Dodgers should call him up tonight and preserve that.
• Estevez had 3 hits for Tulsa last night as did Conner Wong. PLaying 3B again, Wong went 3-5 with a HR and a double. He is hitting .326 with a .907 OPS after his promotion.
• Errol Robinson is quietly hitting .321 at Tulsa.