The Roster is Just About Finalized
So, I am writing this as I am digesting the news that I have to have back surgery for spinal stenosis and spondylolysis on April 24th. It’s pretty much what I had expected, but now it is real. Surgery is really easy… when it is performed on someone else ! The surgery is called…

So, I am writing this as I am digesting the news that I have to have back surgery for spinal stenosis and spondylolysis on April 24th. It’s pretty much what I had expected, but now it is real. Surgery is really easy… when it is performed on someone else! The surgery is called Lumbar Decompression and is the most common back surgery done by my surgeon. I saw three other surgeons, and Dr. Justin Miller made the most sense, and I had the most confidence in him. I come home the same day, and it is a three-week recovery, during which time I am instructed to walk as much as possible. I look forward to walking and standing without pain!
Now, back to the Dodgers. It seems that just about every year at just about this time in Spring Training, some people have takes that are simply based upon their fears. Here are a few from last season:
“I was shocked that AF paid so much for Heaney. Anderson was the better signing.
One MLB.com writer projects that the Dodgers’ rotation in the first month will include both of those guys, which is why I wonder if there’s still a chance to trade for Montas or Manaea.“
That would have been a disaster!
“Well if the Dodgers don’t soon turn this thing around then it’s time to scuttle Robert’s new contract and move on!”
“Fire Doc” is the “go to” for many fans.
“Buehler has already had TJ once. He throws hard. He throws really hard. It’s not beyond the realm of reasonable possibility that he blows out his arm. Then what? Without the depth in GOOD starting pitchers, the Dodgers would be up shit creek. The Dodgers are simply very vulnerable to unexpected attrition to the top of their rotation.”
This commenter was right about Striker, but the rotation was fine… even without May.
“I got the under at 90 wins.”
That one didn’t turn out so great.
No names were mentioned in order to protect the guilty.
I thought Cody Bellinger would be able to at least improve his game to something like .230 BA with 30 HR, but Phil Jones was right. Speaking of Phil… where are you? I hated the Craig Kimbrel trade, but Pollack did not have a great year with the Sox, but that doesn’t mean he might have been nails for the Dodgers. The Dodgers had a lot go wrong last year and still won 150 games or something close to that.
I think the Dodgers are a lot better than many fans think. I will not be surprised if they win 100 games again. Miguel Vargas is settling in nicely – he made a great throw to 3B to nail Rodriguez last night, and James Outman was part of two plays where runners were thrown out at 3B. The Dodgers made a few more cuts last night (non-surprising): left-hander Justin Bruihl and infielder Yonny Hernandez were assigned to Minor League camp. They also reassigned Patrick Mazeika, David Freitas and Ryan Ward to Minor League camp.
This is my latest on the thirteen players the Dodgers will head out of Spring Training with:
- Barnes
- Smith
- Freeman
- Vargas
- Rojas
- Muncy
- Betts
- Taylor
- Martinez
- Peralta
- Thompson
- Heyward
- Outman
That is less than ideal, and things could change quickly. I am very worried about CT3, but that could turn quickly. Heyward will have to deliver, as will Trayce. If not, changes will be made… up to and including trades. How that happens will depend on how the Dodgers rank in the standings. It will also depend on how players at AAA are doing. OKC could have a very powerful lineup this season. Consider this
- Catcher – Hunter Feduccia
- 1B – Devin Mann/Drew Avans/Ryan Ward
- 2B – Yonny Hernandez/Jorbit Vivas
- SS – Eddys Leonard
- 3B – Luke Williams
- LF – Mike Busch
- CF – Jonny DeLuca
- RF – Andy Pages
Of course, the Dodgers likely don’t see it as I do, but if Busch could learn LF, his value would automatically increase.
If Mookie and JDM can energize the Big Clubs’ lineup, it will be a lot more potent than some think. I am not counting on CT3, so if he does anything, it will be a plus. I also expect Heyward to not see Memorial Day in Dodger Blue and I hope I am wrong.
Here’s the lineup I would roll out on Opening Day:
- Betts RF
- Freeman 1B
- Martinez DH
- Muncy 3B
- Smith C
- Peralta LF
- Vargas 2B
- Outman CF
- Rojas SS
The Bottom of the Lineup
I like that lineup, but some people only have “sight” when what they really need is “vision.” You see, there are just certain players that YOU KNOW are going to do well in the Show. To me, there was no doubt about Adrian Beltre, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Andy LaRoche (OK, I missed that one), Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and many others. Now, I did not see others that were coming, like Will Smith (but who did?). The point is: Miguel Vargas is my next big thing. He plays like he belongs, and if he can play up to what I think (.280/.800 OPS/20 HR), that will solidify that lineup immensely. He also does the “little stuff,” and, as a rookie, he will make a mistake now and then, but he will learn, and his field presence is incredible considering his age, and he is new at 2B. He will be in the Top Three for Rookie of the Year.
David Peralta will get 400+ ABs in LF and provide above-average defense and will be a righty-killer. I look for him to put upon good power numbers. As a #6 hitter, he is solid and knows this is his best chance at a Championship – he’s all in as he becomes 36 this year! I have great hope for James Outman – he will be streaky, but I think he is ready. He is a 5-tool player, and if he can hit close to .250 with some power (20+), he will be a huge asset! Finally, Miguel Rojas brings intangibles that most who have never played the game can comprehend. He is already a team leader, and if he hits. 250, do not underestimate how much he will mean to this club. I say 100 wins, and I think most of you will take the “under.” Losers! 😉
P.S. I am of the belief that Pepiot needs to go to OKC and work on repeating his delivery. It’s better than last year, but he can get even better. Grove or Jackson can take his spot at the start of the season. He just needs to polish it up a little.
P.S. 1 Tomorrow at 6 AM, the whole famdamily and I hop, a Big Bird, and fly to San Francisco for a wedding in Mill Valley on Saturday. They fly back home Tuesday, but Sunday Morning, my youngest son (who is a Dodger fan) and I, fly to LA to see the Opening Game of the Freeway Series on Sunday night. We have several vendors for USWaterSystems.com, and my son is the COO of the company, so we will spend Monday and Tuesday visiting vendors in Chico, Sun Valley, Valejio, and Temecula. We are staying at the Doubletree Inn in Anaheim, so if someone wants to meet up for a beer or two, let me know. I have two extra tickets that I had to pay dearly for. I have them on Stub Hub at $239.00 each but would sell them for less if anyone is interested.


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Discussion (81)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Pray that you have a successful surgery that frees you from pain. I enjoy reading your site almost daily although I seldom comment. May God bless you and keep you safe.
Heyward and Outman both on the roster for opening day. I totally blew that one. But Outman deserves his shot. As for roster construction. No one person selects the roster. There is a meeting whether face to face or a conference call and those decisions are made then. Roberts has some input, AF has his say, and the trainers and doc’s let them know where players stand health wise. We all knew Hudson was going to be on the IL, not so sure about Nelson until we saw haw bad he looked. Lux and Reyes will be placed there too. No roster moves need to be made for the only NRI who will make the team, Heyward.
I’m glad to see Outman make the roster to start the season. Let him sink or swim. It’s better to run him out there to play CF then the corpse of Jason Heyward.
This offense isn’t going to scare anyone at first. Lots of question marks, but there could be good answers too. Are we going to see the 2021 version of Max Muncy or last year? Or somewhere in between? Can Vargas actually play 2B? Will he and Outman hit big league pitching? Will the infield of Muncy, Rojas and Vargas actually catch the ball?
How many ABs does the combo of Peralta, Taylor, Thompson and Heyward get, and what do they actually produce? (second question – is it any worse than the OF of Bellinger in CF and Thompson, Gallo and Taylor did last year?)
How many starts do Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, May and Syndergaard miss? Will the Dodgers actually need a closer?
I think that the Dodgers caught lightening in a bottle last year. Fangraphs projects the Dodgers to win 88; USA today has them at 95, Sporting News 96, Baseball Prospectus 93. Of these, Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus use analytics and are probably more conservative but more objective. I think that they probably win in the low 90s due to their pitching depth. I am unconvinced about their INF defense and their combination of OFs.
No one has mentioned it, but after Prior took out Grove, who was struggling, he took him aside and used it as a learning moment. This is what Mark Prior does, and it could be a seminal moment for Grove, who came back and pitched much better! That was an exceptional move!
Mark
Pay heed to the docs and follow their directions…. You have without a doubt the very best blog for Dodger baseball. It’s the first thing I check out to start my day. Thanks for making my Dodger life better.
Good luck on your surgery and get well soon.
Ira from Baltimore
Mark, hope your surgery goes well and you have a smooth and speedy recovery. I also was wondering where Phil Jones has been I always enjoyed his posts and insight.
Mark, you are in my prayers for a full recovery. I have felt all spring that they were showcasing Grove for a trade. If so, he damaged that strategy today.
My aching back wishes your’s the best of skill and the best of luck on the surgery, Mark.
The opening-day roster may be set, but it still seems out of whack to me. With JDM at DH, having five outfielders for 3 position is imbalanced. . Or six outfielders, if we count Taylor. A key injury could move Mookie to 2B. That would be interesting, but I don’t think it’s ideal.
The lineup I hope to see:
Betts RF
Freeman 1B
Smith C
Muncy 1B
JDM DH
Peralta/Thompson or Taylor LF
Vargas 2B
Outman CF
Rojas SS
Bench: Barnes, Heyward, Taylor, Thompson
My hope is that Outman gets the full opportunity in CF, but I suspect that management will platoon him with Trayce and/or Taylor. If Outman hits and Peralta underperforms at age 35–he faded last season–I’d have them switch places in the lineup.
Like others here, I am worried that Taylor’s struggles will continue; that Heyward really is washed up, and Trayce will revert to journeyman status. If they all hit, then one (probably Trayce) would be easier to trade to get a strong UT option in return.