So, I am writing this as I am digesting the news that I have to have back surgery for spinal stenosis and spondylolysis on April 24th. It’s pretty much what I had expected, but now it is real. Surgery is really easy… when it is performed on someone else! The surgery is called Lumbar Decompression and is the most common back surgery done by my surgeon. I saw three other surgeons, and Dr. Justin Miller made the most sense, and I had the most confidence in him. I come home the same day, and it is a three-week recovery, during which time I am instructed to walk as much as possible. I look forward to walking and standing without pain!
Now, back to the Dodgers. It seems that just about every year at just about this time in Spring Training, some people have takes that are simply based upon their fears. Here are a few from last season:
“I was shocked that AF paid so much for Heaney. Anderson was the better signing.
One MLB.com writer projects that the Dodgers’ rotation in the first month will include both of those guys, which is why I wonder if there’s still a chance to trade for Montas or Manaea.“
That would have been a disaster!
“Well if the Dodgers don’t soon turn this thing around then it’s time to scuttle Robert’s new contract and move on!”
“Fire Doc” is the “go to” for many fans.
“Buehler has already had TJ once. He throws hard. He throws really hard. It’s not beyond the realm of reasonable possibility that he blows out his arm. Then what? Without the depth in GOOD starting pitchers, the Dodgers would be up shit creek. The Dodgers are simply very vulnerable to unexpected attrition to the top of their rotation.”
This commenter was right about Striker, but the rotation was fine… even without May.
“I got the under at 90 wins.”
That one didn’t turn out so great.
No names were mentioned in order to protect the guilty.
I thought Cody Bellinger would be able to at least improve his game to something like .230 BA with 30 HR, but Phil Jones was right. Speaking of Phil… where are you? I hated the Craig Kimbrel trade, but Pollack did not have a great year with the Sox, but that doesn’t mean he might have been nails for the Dodgers. The Dodgers had a lot go wrong last year and still won 150 games or something close to that.
I think the Dodgers are a lot better than many fans think. I will not be surprised if they win 100 games again. Miguel Vargas is settling in nicely – he made a great throw to 3B to nail Rodriguez last night, and James Outman was part of two plays where runners were thrown out at 3B. The Dodgers made a few more cuts last night (non-surprising): left-hander Justin Bruihl and infielder Yonny Hernandez were assigned to Minor League camp. They also reassigned Patrick Mazeika, David Freitas and Ryan Ward to Minor League camp.
This is my latest on the thirteen players the Dodgers will head out of Spring Training with:
- Barnes
- Smith
- Freeman
- Vargas
- Rojas
- Muncy
- Betts
- Taylor
- Martinez
- Peralta
- Thompson
- Heyward
- Outman
That is less than ideal, and things could change quickly. I am very worried about CT3, but that could turn quickly. Heyward will have to deliver, as will Trayce. If not, changes will be made… up to and including trades. How that happens will depend on how the Dodgers rank in the standings. It will also depend on how players at AAA are doing. OKC could have a very powerful lineup this season. Consider this
- Catcher – Hunter Feduccia
- 1B – Devin Mann/Drew Avans/Ryan Ward
- 2B – Yonny Hernandez/Jorbit Vivas
- SS – Eddys Leonard
- 3B – Luke Williams
- LF – Mike Busch
- CF – Jonny DeLuca
- RF – Andy Pages
Of course, the Dodgers likely don’t see it as I do, but if Busch could learn LF, his value would automatically increase.
If Mookie and JDM can energize the Big Clubs’ lineup, it will be a lot more potent than some think. I am not counting on CT3, so if he does anything, it will be a plus. I also expect Heyward to not see Memorial Day in Dodger Blue and I hope I am wrong.
Here’s the lineup I would roll out on Opening Day:
- Betts RF
- Freeman 1B
- Martinez DH
- Muncy 3B
- Smith C
- Peralta LF
- Vargas 2B
- Outman CF
- Rojas SS
The Bottom of the Lineup
I like that lineup, but some people only have “sight” when what they really need is “vision.” You see, there are just certain players that YOU KNOW are going to do well in the Show. To me, there was no doubt about Adrian Beltre, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Andy LaRoche (OK, I missed that one), Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and many others. Now, I did not see others that were coming, like Will Smith (but who did?). The point is: Miguel Vargas is my next big thing. He plays like he belongs, and if he can play up to what I think (.280/.800 OPS/20 HR), that will solidify that lineup immensely. He also does the “little stuff,” and, as a rookie, he will make a mistake now and then, but he will learn, and his field presence is incredible considering his age, and he is new at 2B. He will be in the Top Three for Rookie of the Year.
David Peralta will get 400+ ABs in LF and provide above-average defense and will be a righty-killer. I look for him to put upon good power numbers. As a #6 hitter, he is solid and knows this is his best chance at a Championship – he’s all in as he becomes 36 this year! I have great hope for James Outman – he will be streaky, but I think he is ready. He is a 5-tool player, and if he can hit close to .250 with some power (20+), he will be a huge asset! Finally, Miguel Rojas brings intangibles that most who have never played the game can comprehend. He is already a team leader, and if he hits. 250, do not underestimate how much he will mean to this club. I say 100 wins, and I think most of you will take the “under.” Losers! 😉
P.S. I am of the belief that Pepiot needs to go to OKC and work on repeating his delivery. It’s better than last year, but he can get even better. Grove or Jackson can take his spot at the start of the season. He just needs to polish it up a little.
P.S. 1 Tomorrow at 6 AM, the whole famdamily and I hop, a Big Bird, and fly to San Francisco for a wedding in Mill Valley on Saturday. They fly back home Tuesday, but Sunday Morning, my youngest son (who is a Dodger fan) and I, fly to LA to see the Opening Game of the Freeway Series on Sunday night. We have several vendors for USWaterSystems.com, and my son is the COO of the company, so we will spend Monday and Tuesday visiting vendors in Chico, Sun Valley, Valejio, and Temecula. We are staying at the Doubletree Inn in Anaheim, so if someone wants to meet up for a beer or two, let me know. I have two extra tickets that I had to pay dearly for. I have them on Stub Hub at $239.00 each but would sell them for less if anyone is interested.
Discussion (33)
Disagree, not disagreeable
My aching back wishes your’s the best of skill and the best of luck on the surgery, Mark.
The opening-day roster may be set, but it still seems out of whack to me. With JDM at DH, having five outfielders for 3 position is imbalanced. . Or six outfielders, if we count Taylor. A key injury could move Mookie to 2B. That would be interesting, but I don’t think it’s ideal.
The lineup I hope to see:
Betts RF
Freeman 1B
Smith C
Muncy 1B
JDM DH
Peralta/Thompson or Taylor LF
Vargas 2B
Outman CF
Rojas SS
Bench: Barnes, Heyward, Taylor, Thompson
My hope is that Outman gets the full opportunity in CF, but I suspect that management will platoon him with Trayce and/or Taylor. If Outman hits and Peralta underperforms at age 35–he faded last season–I’d have them switch places in the lineup.
Like others here, I am worried that Taylor’s struggles will continue; that Heyward really is washed up, and Trayce will revert to journeyman status. If they all hit, then one (probably Trayce) would be easier to trade to get a strong UT option in return.
Mark, you are in my prayers for a full recovery. I have felt all spring that they were showcasing Grove for a trade. If so, he damaged that strategy today.
Mark, hope your surgery goes well and you have a smooth and speedy recovery. I also was wondering where Phil Jones has been I always enjoyed his posts and insight.
Mark
Pay heed to the docs and follow their directions…. You have without a doubt the very best blog for Dodger baseball. It’s the first thing I check out to start my day. Thanks for making my Dodger life better.
Good luck on your surgery and get well soon.
Ira from Baltimore
No one has mentioned it, but after Prior took out Grove, who was struggling, he took him aside and used it as a learning moment. This is what Mark Prior does, and it could be a seminal moment for Grove, who came back and pitched much better! That was an exceptional move!
I’m glad to see Outman make the roster to start the season. Let him sink or swim. It’s better to run him out there to play CF then the corpse of Jason Heyward.
This offense isn’t going to scare anyone at first. Lots of question marks, but there could be good answers too. Are we going to see the 2021 version of Max Muncy or last year? Or somewhere in between? Can Vargas actually play 2B? Will he and Outman hit big league pitching? Will the infield of Muncy, Rojas and Vargas actually catch the ball?
How many ABs does the combo of Peralta, Taylor, Thompson and Heyward get, and what do they actually produce? (second question – is it any worse than the OF of Bellinger in CF and Thompson, Gallo and Taylor did last year?)
How many starts do Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, May and Syndergaard miss? Will the Dodgers actually need a closer?
I think that the Dodgers caught lightening in a bottle last year. Fangraphs projects the Dodgers to win 88; USA today has them at 95, Sporting News 96, Baseball Prospectus 93. Of these, Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus use analytics and are probably more conservative but more objective. I think that they probably win in the low 90s due to their pitching depth. I am unconvinced about their INF defense and their combination of OFs.
Heyward and Outman both on the roster for opening day. I totally blew that one. But Outman deserves his shot. As for roster construction. No one person selects the roster. There is a meeting whether face to face or a conference call and those decisions are made then. Roberts has some input, AF has his say, and the trainers and doc’s let them know where players stand health wise. We all knew Hudson was going to be on the IL, not so sure about Nelson until we saw haw bad he looked. Lux and Reyes will be placed there too. No roster moves need to be made for the only NRI who will make the team, Heyward.
Pray that you have a successful surgery that frees you from pain. I enjoy reading your site almost daily although I seldom comment. May God bless you and keep you safe.
Well, at least Smith have a good looking leg kick!
Smith left with a 162.00 ERA. That should turn some heads… or stomachs. WOW! JUST WOW!
I hope your surgery goes well, Mark. I will be out of town this weekend. Otherwise I’d come out and buy you a beer in Anaheim. My parents got buried in snow in the local mountains a couple weeks ago. They had 10 feet flat on the ground. Things just about turned back to normal last week. Only for them to get 4 feet of new snow this week. I have slap some chains on the truck and bring my son up to help them dig out again this weekend. Freeways series sounds a hell of a lot more fun. It’s been the most insane winter in CA in living memory. I hope the weather patterns change. Had the season been going the past two months the Dodgers probably would have had 15 games canceled due to rain.
Let’s hope CA weather reruns to normal by April 1st.
Mike Grove just bought a ticket to OKC.
I am shocked that Smith did not pitch well – he had a 5.97 ERA at GL last year. He should have smoked them.
Sarcasm Alert!
I am not convinced Yency Almonte is healthy. I think there is a chance he starts on the IL as well. Just a hunch…
So Outman and Vargas are on the Opening Day Roster.
Grove, Pepiot, and Jackson all could make it. It depends on how the chips fall, but two could easily make it.
A person named Matt wrote this yesterday and for some reason, it was locked in span. I thought it was good so here it is:
All you need to know about the WBC is we had Merril Kelly start a championship game……
My apologies Matt – I generally check spam daily, but was delinquent in my duties.
So fire me already!
Unless there are major trades, I predict this Dodger team will win closer to 90 games.
Gonsolin and Anderson had career years. This year the Dodgers have one ace, Julio, and several pitchers making IL comebacks or battling issues (May, Kersh, Thor, Gonsolin). I’m not saying they will be bad, just not going to gets as many wins by out pitching the other team.
The offense will be lighter too. Trea Turner was hit machine and made everyone’s job at the plate a little easier.
That said, I believe the Dodgers are OK staying in the race behind the Padres. The Dodgers have learned by watching other teams that momentum is what matters in Oct.
You all can end the speculation Roberts confirmed Outman made opening day roster.
Nicely done Badger.
Who’s in CF ?
Dodgers News: Daniel Hudson, Jimmy Nelson to Open Season on Injured List
With these two moves confirmed, there are some spots in the Dodgers’ opening day bullpen up for grabs. With Justin Bruihl getting optioned to minor league camp on Wednesday, that hopefully clears the path for RHP Andre Jackson to make the opening day roster out of the bullpen.
Hernandez got optioned. So even if Heyward is added to the roster, Outman will be on the roster and I’ve been saying that since the offseason. Outman is ready. I’m positive Doc was in AF’s ear about having an all vet outfield and I wasn’t sure if AF would give in, and that’s why I had a VERY SMALL doubt about Outman making the roster. I’m glad AF didn’t listen to Doc. Doc likes vets, but AF is a smart man unlike Doc.
4:10 PM ET vs Snakes(away)
SP Michael Grove R
0-0 4.38ERA 12.1IP 14K
Confirmed Lineup
LF D. Peralta L
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
RF J. Heyward L
SS Chris Taylor R
CF James Outman L
3B L. Williams R
DH S. Duggar L
2B Devin Mann R
Heard a crazy stat this morning: the Giants have had 16 different opening day LFers in a row. This year will make 17.
Baseball is already global and Ohtani has little to do with it.. They play baseball in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. They play baseball in India and Afghanistan. It’s played on every continent and on the island of Australia. Heck, even commies play baseball.
Thompson/Heyward. Outman as a 5th? I’d rather see him hitting leadoff in OKC.
Pepiot, not Grove.
1 pitcher will get 150 innings.
patch, sounds like you got your first stripe. PFC patch. When everything you just described has been gnawing on you for a decade, you will be reconsidered for curmudgeon status.
Outman’s arm looked ok on pegging that guy at third. Surprised. Looked like a Mookie- laser.
Wish you the best with your surgery Mark.
Did anyone see on dodgers.com that a catcher named Frank Rodriguez is on the active roster. What’s up with that? A mistake? A surprise? And what does this mean for whoever we thought would take the final position player spot? 3 catchers so Martinez can play some LF and Smith can DH more?
Hope the surgery goes well.
My back hurts constantly. Core work helps a lot, but I sometimes get out of the habit and the pain returns…like now.
Started using reading glasses, back hurts, shoulder hurts, my aerobic power has dropped precipitously, running is harder, cycling is slower, can’t hang with the fast guys anymore.. all within the last five years.
Was thinking more about Ohtani and the WBC. Seems like this WBC may be the spark that makes baseball a truly international game. If the Dodgers signed Ohtani, a player with true transnational star power, then the Dodgers could have a whole new potential fan base.
But then again, some people don’t like that because they don’t like foreign born players, but they’re “on the wrong side of history.” 😉
Mark: You will be in our prayers as you have your surgery and go through the difficult recovery.
I’m with you on feeling that this team can win 100+. Our pitching was great last year and has the possibility of actually being better. Badger says there are lots of outs 6-9 in the lineup. Are there actually more outs 6-9 than last year’s 111 win team? Not only was there a very large number of outs 6-9 last year, but 35%+ of them were strikeouts. Those numbers should improve this year.
The good news is the speculation can now stop. Should be a great year which will also be very interesting.
Hope the surgery goes well Mark. I fly to LA on Tuesday. I will be out there until the 25th of April. I read this morning that Heyward is the only NRI with an opt-out. I believe that Duggar could get released. Zimmer would go to AAA though. He has played well and could step in if something happens. I am really concerned that the team did not steal all that much. Even the fastest players on the team did not run all that often.
Vargas has me sold. He has played well at second and his bat is coming around. They ran one of the weakest lineup’s of spring out there last night and got slammed. The pitcher for the Mariners has some nasty heat. Remember this name, Jake Pilarski. Dodgers just recently signed him as an undrafted free agent. He is 24 and will most likely start the year at A ball. But he could be in the majors by the end of the year. Threw a 101 mile an hour heater for a K the other day.
A report also surfaced that Roberts just tired of trying to help Bellinger get his swing right. He just was not listening to anyone it seems. Belli did hit a homer yesterday but is barely hitting .200 this spring. Rios has three bombs but is below the Mendoza line. Cubs are fascinated with his power though.
I got the under.
I also have a cervical and lumbar stenosis diagnosis so I can relate. Did not see this coming. But come it did. Most uncomfortable.
Bottom of the order. I see a lot of outs from 6 down. I doubt anyone there hits much over .250.
The Buehler comment sounds like me. I was always worried that he’d blow out his arm again as hard as he threw
A lot of things have to break right for the Dodgers to be a 95* win team again. Last year Anderson and Heaney pitching as well as they did was a good break.
Part of it is luck, and, it’s true that luck is the residue of design, but it’s still luck.
A lot of things could go wrong this year, too.
All that flying can’t be good for your back Mark. Will be praying for a speedy recovery. Is Leonard at short any kind of prospect?
I wanted Manaea or Montaz rather than Heaney. Both had a better track records. Whatever. Always fine with Anderson–and I hope he rocks for the Angels.
It will be interesting to see how Heaney does in Texas.
Your 100-win prediction seems right to me, and the lineup looks good–but I think Smith should bat 3rd and JDM 5th. Smith is eight years younger and still improving. He gets quality ABs and runs well–and not just “for a catcher.” Smith’s OPS last season were essentially equal to Trea, with he hit with more HR power. JDM, at 35, is on the downslope of a fine career, but he lacks speed and could clog up the basepaths. (The fact that the Dodgers seem to have zero interest in JDM playing LF tells me they think he can hit, but not really run. If he could play a little LF, Smith could play a little DH.)
Sleeper MVP candidate: Max Muncy. Fully healthy and with the shift gone, he could have his best season yet–say, 40 HRs and 125 RBIs, with a .370 OBP.
Sorry to hear about the need for surgery.
Thought the last spot on the 26 man roster would be between Hernandez and Outman. Looks good for Outman.
You think Leonard & Vivas will jump to AAA? That’s aggressive, even though they are both on the 40 man.