The Post-Season Bullpen Will Be a Strength

Great post DC and I will read it again this afternoon but I wasn’t ready for facts and logic this morning. I still want to stew and fuss over Jansen a little longer.

DC – Keep em coming… I’m not a fan of all the analytics, but my glass is half full on our BP… Woke up this morning to see Kenley lost another, just when I thought he’s shown promise lately… I’ll not be going on any anti-Kenley rants just becuz…

Maybe it’s time for a little ‘BP by Committee’.. Always liked that concept when you don’t have ‘that guy’… Kelly + Baez + ??

Spin is the worst delusion. It takes a real situation and creates a myth. The Dodger BP has been nothing short of a house of chaos this season. Yet, the team has survived it. Not because there is a pitcher in the BP who can be counted on to come out and be lights out, but because of players like Muncy, Smith, Belli, & JT, the bats. The bats are big in Dodgertown. The rest is spin. No bats and we are nowhere near going to a WS even with a stellar rotation. That mateys, is no spin, but the truth. This BP, no matter who you put in there before or after the regular season, is not going to save us from anyone. It’s the bats, boys.

Very interesting post DC, about Jansen, he better change things around or the Dodgers will be forced to either remove him from the closer role or as you said they could remove him from the playoff roster. Either move I think would destroy the relationship between Jansen and the Dodgers. Hope he turns it around.

Every day is a new opportunity, you can build on yesterday’s success or put its failures behind and start over again. That’s the way life is, a new game every day, and that’s the way baseball is. Bob Feller

Thanks DC for your analysis. Good read.

I think Pete has hit the nail on the head.

Baez and Kelly. That is it.

They are the only 2 Pitchers that currently inspire any confidence when called into action.

There are an awful lot of assumptions made about the ability of our Starting Pitchers to excel in a different, Relief role.

I know you point to Opponents OPS, but really, when the BP Gate opens in October, and virtually any of our Relief Corps strides to the Mound, will any Dodger fan not be watching from behind the Sofa?

Well, if you want to look at this objectively, Jansen had a great night except for one pitch. There’s hope.

There’s a lot to be excited about. Kelly and Beaz both got the job done. Will Smith is an absolute beast! They should just call him WTF because what he’s doing has never been done before. Muncy Walk Off – 5 Games in a row with a homer. We have a legitimate shot of having a 50 a 40 and a 30 HR guy. When has that happened? I could go on and on about this amazing team.

Magic number is 15 with 10 games to play in August and a 20 game lead in the division. What’s the over under on clinching in August? We have the Yankees this weekend and all three games are nationally broadcast for all you out of towners! Friday-Facebook, Saturday-FS1, Sunday-ESPN. We have a nice chance to add some separation for MLBs best record, which we currently possess.

And we’re doing all this with a roster that’s less than full strength. Have we ever been full strength all year?

Okay, it really sucks that Jansen gave up that gofer ball, but the world didn’t end. This is a historically bad year for closers/bullpen and a historically good year for homers. He still has time to figure this out.

Koufax and Drysdale could solve our bullpen woes! Time for Kersh, Buehler and Ryu to follow suit in the playoffs!

MLB posted that Morrow of the Cubs is done for the year due to elbow issues. And Freidman had the balls to let him walk a couple of years ago, our bullpen savior. That’s it Andrew, your fired!!

I think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell that Kenley won’t be on the postseason roster…

I’m sure there will be alot of anti Jansen talk today… That will make me

reminisce about going out to see Dodger affiliate San Bernadino play and having long lanky catcher named Kenley behind the dish catch my eye and reminding people of a guy trying to dance in a phone booth… Aw hell, M.T would have had him Bench-esque… Oh well, they switched him to the BP and the rest is history… He’ll be there in Oct…

Over the past several weeks, Roberts has said things that indicate the Dodgers are attempting to change Kenley’s approach so he doesn’t go back to well one too many times, like he did last night with the inside cutter. At times you can hear the frustration, but Roberts said Jansen will remain the closer and they will continue to communicate. Don’t forget the issue between Kenley and the catcher over pitch selection, earlier this summer. It became obvious they weren’t on the same page. Probably hard for a guy who has had so much success with the cutter to change his approach. He has been making changes, but falls back at times, which often leads to blown saves or messy ninth innings.

But Mark is correct, the Dodgers are far better off than most teams, including other playoff and World Series hopefuls when it comes to the bullpen. Look at it this way, you could have the Angels bullpen. Or worse, their starting rotation.

I have to question the alleged great communication skills of Roberts if Kenley still isn’t getting the message that he can’t just throw his cutter over and over again and be successful. Sorry Kenley. 2017 called. They said your cutter ain’t like what it was back then.

I thought they were instructing him to throw his slider more. Kershaw has gotten over his hyper competitive stubbornness and has learned to adapt to his age and lower velocity. Either Kenley does the same or he’s demoted to lower leverage situations, which there will be a scarcity of in the playoffs. This has to be solved. The Dodgers won’t survive those blown save situations against the Astros like they do against a terrible team like the Blue Jays. It’ll just be another repeat of 2017 where the Dodgers cough up a bunch of furballs and Dodger fandom will be waiting in vain for another championship.

Let’s hope Maeda is more aggressive in his relief role. Let’s hope May is a quick study on how to throw to major league hitting and doesn’t leave pitches over the plate. Let’s hope Kenley stops shaking off his catcher and throws a freaking slider when he’s told and stops throwing a cutter that’s 3 mph slower and doesn’t cut over and over again.

Mark sugar coats this bullpen. The Dodgers CAN NOT WIN the WS against the likes of the Astros or Yankees with the bullpen as it’s currently constructed. Ok, I backtrack a little on CAN NOT, but the team is at a severe disadvantage.

Mark’s ERA argument conspicuously omits what the bullpen does in high leverage situations. How reliable is the bullpen when it counts the most? Here’s an interesting article that explores that question.

The Dodgers are decidedly second tier when it comes to their bullpen performance in higher leverage scenarios. Baez has been reasonably dependable, and Kelly has turned the season around, but this bullpen still hasn’t been sorted out, and even if you have a cadre of starters jumping in to take bullpen roles, how wise is this when they haven’t had experience doing this during the regular season?

The Dodgers are doomed.

The bullpen in October will be fine because Mark is speaking it into existence. Works for me! Hell, I don’t have any better ideas, except use Buehler and Ryu every other day as closer in October.

The race is on now. Who gets to their magic number first? Belly to 50? Muncy to 40? Joc to 30? JT to 30? Smith/Seager to 20?? Kenley to 10 blown saves??

Anyone going to the big series this weekend? I”m debating Sunday but I won’t cry if my tickets sell at a crazy high price. Plus I’d rather see NY in October anyway.

I’d like to think Dodger pitching will be the edge they need to get over the postseason hump and win it all. But I haven’t really seen anything that makes me think it’s an odds on probability. I’m no expert but pitching hasn’t dominated the PS since 2014 when Madbum had his run. I can only hope and wait and see what happens. The thing is, even Koufax got whupped in 66. I don’t see any Koufax’s or even Hershiser’s on this staff. The Dodger starters seem to like the comfortable confines of Dodger stadium and not so much the roadies. But someone could stand up yet. Maybe a Larry Sherry or 2 in the staff?

I have respect for statistics, but I know that they can paint a misleading picture as well. Overall bullpen ERA is not a great measure of bullpen strength going into playoffs. Sometimes a team can get knocked out of some games early, and then have to use the lowest people on the bullpen, sometimes those who are not even on the roster now, and runs are piled up. What I would most look at, is the back three in any bullpen. In the playoffs, if the starter is hit early, the manager is likely to use an extra starter in relief, if the game is still winnable. They don’t usually do that in the regular season, they have mop-up men in. The Yankees still have the best back three in baseball, in Ottavino, Britton, and Chapman. The Astros, as you point out, have had some injuries, but now with the Greinke addition, have more room to use a starter or two in the bullpen. And Osuna may not be an admirable person at all, but I think he is better than our closer, whoever it might be.

Our bullpen’s back end is Baez, Kelly, and Jansen. They can be moved around, but then one worries about Jansen’s psychological state, because he seems to get very upset if things are not just as he likes them. He was unhappy when the Dodgers briefly had Chapman. Demoting Jansen to the set-up role has its own risks, but probably is better than the alternative of leaving him in the closer role. And of course that still puts him in a crucial position. If the Dodgers are up a run going into the 8th, he can lose the lead just as well from that inning, if his cutter doesn’t cut. And Kelly has not closed this year, he didn’t close last year. It is a different role. He is doing very well of late, and probably would be worth trying as closer, but it is no sure thing. And is either of the two capable of the five-out save? As to Baez, he has been pretty reliable, but I’m not completely sold on him in high-pressure road games, but we have to hope he will continue to be effective.

Back to Jansen, I think that hoping that he somehow regains 2017 form, is very optimistic. And not only does he blow saves, but it is on home runs, so that there is no warning, in terms of putting men on base. And of course we have no one behind him. The Astros might use Verlander for a batter or two to get a save in the Series, if necessary, or another starter. We used Kershaw once in a crucial game, for one out, but that approach is very rare for us, and we only have three reliable starters, all of whom need four days of rest between starts.

It seemed to me , and to many others, both fans and pundits, that the Dodgers needed to fix the bullpen at the trade deadline. But we chose not to do so, apparently because we felt that the price was too high for Vazquez, and we didn’t really want any of the other ones. So here we are. Last night was mostly good; Taylor’s return is very important, so far Smith keeps doing very well at the plate, Buehler pitched well. But one of the most important needs going into playoffs is a top closer. We do not have one. We have not all year. We cannot afford to lose playoff games where we have a one-run lead going into the 8th inning. There’s not much we can do about what we have now. Jansen has to be in there somewhere, but where? Last night, Roberts said that “Kenley made 20 pitches, 19 of them were good pitches, the other one was good, too, but they just hit a home run off it.” That takes positive talk to a very high level. It also shows that Jansen is likely to be out there again in the closer’s role, and will likely have a couple of good innings to make some think that he is getting it back, only to lose another save later on. My guess is that unless he blows two more saves in the regular season, Roberts will keep him as closer throughout the playoffs, unless he blows more of them there.

Let’s look at what could happen in the playoffs:

Game 1: Kershaw starts and goes 6 like he always does.

In the pen, you have Kenley, Baez, Kelly, Maeda, Urias, Hil, May, Gonsolin, Sadler, and Stripling.

I could dig that.

Just another thought on yesterdays Alston-Snider article.

It was the Duke who was in the bullpen who called argued to convince Alston to use his roomy(Drysdale) in the ninth inning. Next year the Duke was traded to the Mets.

Why not use Jensen on eight inning as setup and Kelly as closer? Kenley needs to get all that frustration out of his head and regain confidence, what can be lost?

It’s very mellow today…

Soon it will be Carlos time..

P.S. There hasn’t been too many if any Dodger managers I haven’t liked…Only one I was indifferent to was Billy Russell…

The Dodgers’ pen allows the highest percentage of inherited runners to score in all of MLB (42%). They are 7th worst in blown saves (22). They have only 50 holds (league average is 62; Yankees are 1st with 91).

What’s remarkable about this is that the Dodger bullpen has not been taxed. Not only have they pitched only 402 innings in relief (28th in MLB), the average leverage index when a reliever enters the game is below 1.0, meaning that Dodger relievers usually enter a game in non-stressful situations.

You can spin the numbers all you want – yeah, on paper, the bullpen ERA is OK and the WHIP is good. But what the other numbers show is that they aren’t clutch. They allow inherited runners to score more than any team in MLB; they blow saves and don’t hold leads.

The rotation has been a strength all year. The starters pitch deep into games and usually pitch well, masking the weakness of the bullpen. They won’t be able to rely on this in the post-season. Relievers will have to pitch well in pressure situations like they HAVEN’T all season.

And of course they will – wishing it were so will make it so.

Remember how it was “Game Over” when Gagne would come into a game?

The weakness is the bullpen, as it is for several teams, not just for Dodgers, I can live with that. What really is very FRUSTANT is to see the total lack of ability to hit the opposite side, last night when Bellinger came with a 2 on base and not outs, he had open third base and could not hit for that side, resulting in doubleplay and killing the possible rally.

I was talking to a friend who says Bellinger should be MVP, but I think it should be Yelich, since he does know how to hit for the whole field, unless he is also played with a special formation, which I don’t know

For what it’s worth the Dodgers are 19th out of 30 teams in save percentage and below both league’s average.

Kenley did not lose the game, Muncy won it. Patience. Stay positive.

Mark in your scenario above, when Kershaw goes 6 – I’m afraid I don’t dig that.

That’s 6 Starters in the Pen. Relieving is a different skill, perfected with time and experience.

That is a huge leap of faith.