The Post-Season Bullpen Will Be a Strength
Last night s bullpen was excellent . except for the closer, who coughed up another hairball. All season long there has been an ongoing discussion about what many fans perceive is the Dodgers glaring weakness the bullpen. Since Spring Training, I have consistently said that I had no problem with the Dodger Bullpen and I have repeatedly said that The Bullpen you see now, will not be the bullpen you see in
Last night’s bullpen was excellent…. except for the closer, who coughed up another hairball. All season long there has been an ongoing discussion about what many fans perceive is the Dodgers glaring weakness… the bullpen. Since Spring Training, I have consistently said that I had no problem with the Dodger Bullpen and I have repeatedly said that “The Bullpen you see now, will not be the bullpen you see in the playoffs.” I stand by that! 1200%!!! Even if Kenley does not get himself straightened out, the Dodgers pen can be excellent. The Red Sox won last year while hiding Craig Kimbrel’s struggles.
It is what it is: Kenley Jansen has blown 6 saves… mostly on home runs. He has about 5 weeks to “fix it” or the Dodgers will have to resort to other methods to close out games. In case you have been hiding under a rock, just about all the bullpens across the MLB are under siege. I am going to start this with a quote from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic:
Game 5 of the 2017 World Series, a 13-12 victory by the Astros over the Dodgers in 10 innings, was considered an outlier, a freakish offensive eruption that included any number of wild twists and seven home runs.
In the 2019 postseason, considering the liveliness of the baseball and the decaying state of relief pitching, might such rollicking affairs become the norm?
Here are the facts:
The overall bullpen ERA in major-league baseball has increased from 4.07 last season to 4.53 this season. The opponents’ OPS against relievers has increased from .722 to .758. These are not incremental advances, but massive jumps.
Sticking with opponents’ OPS – a better measure of bullpen performance than ERA, which does not account for inherited runners – only six clubs have improved their ‘pens from 2018. All six were coming off a bottom-10 finish in that department, and thus were among the most likely to achieve better results.
The use of starters in relief – a tactic employed in October by the last two World Series champions, the 2017 Astros and 2018 Red Sox – might be the only way for a number of playoff qualifiers to survive three postseason rounds.
The Cardinals, whose bullpen leads the majors with a .656 opponents’ OPS, are perhaps the only NL contender with a bullpen that one might consider stable, despite losing closer Jordan Hicks to Tommy John surgery in June.
The Dodgers’ bullpen, even with a lesser Kenley Jansen, ranks fourth with a .703 opponents OPS, and the postseason version might include top prospect Dustin May and a number of pitchers who also have started – Julio Urías, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda, even Rich Hill.
The Astros’ pen, third with a .693 opponents’ OPS, also should be deep – Brad Peacock just came off the injured list, and Josh James figures to return at some point as well. The addition of Zack Greinke to go with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in the rotation gives the team the additional option to make creative use of Wade Miley – the staff’s only left-hander – and Aaron Sanchez.
Then there is the Yankees’ pen, which ranks only eighth with a .730 opponents’ OPS, but features a strong core group that only will grow stronger if Dellin Betances makes a solid recovery from lat and shoulder injuries and top prospect Deivi Garcia proves a worthy alternative in September.
The bullpens of the Rays (.691), Athletics (.707) and Indians (.711) are also among the top 10 in opponents’ OPS, but with 5 1/2 weeks still remaining in the regular season, who knows what condition any of these ‘pens will be in come October?
The relievers are reeling. The baseball is on a six-month bender. The postseason will be a free-for-all.
Yes, I quoted a substantial part of that article. SUE ME! That is the kind of journalism you get every day from The Athletic, which is now (unquestionably) the best website for sports. PERIOD! If you don’t subscribe, you should. It’s worth twice the price. You can go HERE and get 40% off.
Now, back to my story: Bullpens are under assault as guys like Robert Van Socyoc are studying and amassing data on every pitcher, so that the hitters can take their best cuts. For many years, the pitching strategy has been way ahead of the hitting. Now the worm is starting to turn. Hitters are on to what the pitchers might throw.
If you know what a pitcher might throw, you have a much better chance of hitting it. Just before Kirk Gibson was facing a 3-2 count in 1988 he remembered that the scouting report from Mel Didier on Eckersley was that with a 3-2 count, he always threw a “backdoor slider.” That was the only pitch he was looking for… he got it and here we are 31 years later!
The Astros were really the first team to start developing analytics for hitters to learn how to best attack pitchers. Andrew Friedman was a little later to the dance but what he has done with Robert Van Socyoc, Aaron Bates and Brandt Brown has been nothing short of incredible. The latest success story is Will Smith who looks to be some kind of MVP-Type Middle-of-the-Order hitter. Who would od thunk it?
But, back to the bullpen. If the Dodgers starters are healthy, half of them will be in the bullpen and they will have to adapt it the Dodgers are to win. As of right now, Kenley will be on the playoff roster, but if he keeps his backslide up, I could see a scenario where he is not on the playoff roster. Just know this: The Dodgers still have one of the better bullpens in baseball and most of the bullpens are under attack. Get used to it. To win it all, the Dodgers will have to hit like they have not hit the past two World Series.
Hitters are attacking pitchers like never before. Justin Verlander lost last night despite giving up just 2 hits – both were HR’s! He has now given up 33 bombs this year. He says the ball is juiced, and it may be, but it’s the change in approach by the hitters that is playing a huge part of this evolution.
Other Dodger News
- After coming off the DL, Chris Taylor has continued his hot hitting. He is hitting .271 with a .820 OPS. He’s a regular, in my mind.
- Don’t look now, but Corey Seager is back in the groove – he’s up to .271 after struggling most of the year with rehabilitation.
- Will Smith? No one even saw this coming. 12 HR in 88 AB’s is absolutely sick!
- Gavin Lux was 0-2 last night with 2 BB and Zach McKinstry was 3-4 with his 7th HR in 56 AB’s, He’s another “organizational success.”
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Discussion (100)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Come playoff time I’d be pretty happy with middle relief of Kolarek, Urias, Maeda, Baez and Kelly. The key will be if Jansen can close and the answer right now is no! So right now it would be closer by committee
A question for Ac/Dc
If the organisation is obviously so good at developing Starting Pitchers, and Position Players and Catchers, why is it we have so few Relievers in the pipeline?
The only thing Kenley lost was Buehler’s great outing. Disappointed but today is another day. Also I hate it when the fans boo their own players. Tacky.
Jorge, what is very frustrating, besides that FRUSTANT, is you pulling out of a clear BLUE sky and a certain part of your anatomia that Yelich deserves the MVP because Belli can’t use the whole field…
We had folks at Guantanamo Bay that used that similar approach to break people down…
Watford my Man, I think we do have some closer types in training… M.T. could expand…
P.S. Dodger Mom keep up that Positive Mental Attitude… and say a quiet prayer for Belli and his hitting deficits…
for
peterj, What deficits?, lol. He can hit to other fields also and beat the shift. It will be a good fight to the finish for mvp between Bellinger and Yelich and maybe a few others. May the best man win but rooting for my Dodger player, Belli. Also I miss AC and his comments. Saying a silent prayer for him and his family that they will find comfort and peace in this trying and sad time.
I’m also surprised to see everyone here jumping on the Joe Kelly bandwagon.
He still isn’t good. His WHIP this year is in line with his career average and is almost 1.4, too high for a late inning reliever.
His leverage number is .95, meaning that most of the numbers that he does have are in below average pressure situations. (Compare that with Pedro Baez who has a leverage number of 1.4 meaning that most of the time when he comes in the game is on the line, or Jansen who’s leverage number is over 2.0.)
In short, people are ready to make Kelly the closer when he mostly hasn’t pitched in high pressure situations all year.
This idea of just demoting Kenley Jansen (not Jensen) automatically solves our problems is ludicrous. Let’s forget that Baez’s peripherals are worse than Jansen’s(not Jensen). Let’s forget that Baez’s numbers in high leverage situations aren’t great and say we demote Jansen(not Jensen). Do
people really think making him a setup man or middle innings guy solves anything?
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Until the postseason arrives the Dodgers bullpen with feature Jansen I’m some role. Would it have been better that he gave up a dinger in the 8th or 7th ? Does anyone really think they’re going to start using Jansen(not Jensen) like Yimi?
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Whether he’s the closer or not come postseason they will have to go to him at some point. Between now and then he needs work to see if he can get his command back. The pitch last night cut just fine. Unfortunately he missed his spot in the hitters happy zone. I’m no more confident when I see Kenley than anyone else on this board. That’s why I wanted Vasquez but people need realistic about the current situation. Kenley is going to be given plenty of opportunities to fix things before the closer role is handed over to Kelly.
Whoever the hell Jensen is but please bring back Janson!
I don’t care that Kenley didn’t speak with the media last night. What bothers me more than that and giving up the HR was that he wasn’t at home plate celebrating with his teammates when they won. He did make a statement saying that he was happy that he has teammates that continue to pick him up and he wants to do the same for them. I don’t know. Maybe it’s customary for him to have hit the showers but I would have liked to have seen him there greeting Mad Max after his dinger.
Last night I saw in Roberts something I had never seen him when Kenley doesn’t do the job, he was always like: “Ok it’s just a bad game”, but last night it was different, his face was of frustration and disappointment after he went out to say the politically correct thing.
Kenley has 6 BS and is on his way to finish with 8 or 9 something totally unacceptable. For the hierarchy of Kenley and the 20 games of advantage, he will surely be given the rest of the season to solve it. If the team had only 3 or 4 games ahead, Kenley’s situation would be very different, I don’t know if he was still a closer.
Today’s sweep lineup:
Pollock
Muncy
JT
Belly
Seager
Kike
Joc
Martin
Maeda
Some of the “Knee Jerkers” have accused me of being one too. Let me remind you that I have consistently and continuously predicted that the bullpen would be fine. When you guys jerk your knees and I respond, you are still the knee-jerkers, not me.
IR-A or Inherited Runs Allow Percentage isn’t a perfect statistic for evaluating relievers because it’s obviously easier to strand runners in certain situations. For instance, it’s easier for a relief pitcher to strand a runner who is on first base with one out than it is for him to strand a runner who is on third base with none out. However, over the course of the season, those circumstances typically even out, and the game’s better relief pitchers usually allow the lowest percentage of inherited runners to score.
I have no idea of knowing when Doc brought in a reliever. Were the bases loaded or was the runner on 1B? Obviously, we don’t know, unless we want to go back and recap every AB. I don’t. You guys cherry-picked a couple of stats that are no more perfect than the ones I use, so I call Bull Shit!
Imagine how great our starters would be (and they are already a half-run better than any other team) if the relievers did not allow as many runners to score. I know this and it is also a FACT:
1. The Dodgers have the best pitching in baseball.
2. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball.
3. The Dodgers have the biggest run differential in baseball, by over 40 RUNS!
All teams have flaws, but the Dodgers have fewer flaws than any other team. Some of you just like to bitch! In fact, if you can’t bitch, you don’t show up. For several years you have told me how bad the team is and yet they got to the World Series the past two years and are likely to get there again as the team is even better,
Do you want some cheese with that whine?
I think too much is being made of Kenley’s pitch selection causing him to think too much. Overthinking causes mechanical issues which in turn leads to location issues.
He can still bring his cutter at 94 and maybe could consistently do it with a tweak or two. He looks really good at times and then… there’s that ONE PITCH!
That is why I still get upset that the Dodgers didn’t sign Vlad Jr. in 2015 when they spent all that money on international signings, and Vlad was the top international prospect.
Wagensmack is dominating us so far tonight!
Don’t know this for sure, but didn’t the Dodgers fire a bunch of their international development people a few years ago after coming up short with a lot of their Cuban prospects. In fact, the name escapes me, but I believe the Dodgers signed a young Cuban outfielder in 2015 who they preferred over Guerrero. Think he’s still in the organization somewhere in single-A.
Magic Number 14
UNBELIEVABLE
Had to feel good when Law took the mound for the 9th. Good for Kike. Seager is going to lead the league in doubles the way he’s going.
I told them, since the series against Arizona, Corey looks better with his swing, every day he looks better, more comfortable, he has found his swing.
Hawkeye, I think you hit it on the nose with Heredia. If we had signed Guerrero, my best guess is that there would be no discussions about Seager moving to 3B. Guerrero would be the heir apparent.
Can’t believe another walk-off. As exciting as these games are, I’d prefer that the Dodgers just pile up a bunch of runs throughout the game. Don’t know if this stuff will work in the post-season.
With Yankees coming in for 3, the Dodgers now have a 2 game lead for home field. I also suspect that the winner of this series will get the tie breaker if both teams end up in a tie.
And by the way, neither team is a lock to even get into the WS. Either one of them could get knocked off in the Division or Championship Series.
Although he didn’t get the walk-off hit, it was really good to see Cory Seager in the middle of this comeback. I’m hopeful that he may finally be on the verge of a breakout that will include a display of power beyond all of his doubles.
I have been critical of the Dodger’s defense in the past, but there is an interesting article on Dodger’s Nation that seems to prove me wrong https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-amongst-best-and-most-improved-defensive-teams-in-mlb/2019/08/22/
No one will read this tonight, so I will repost it tomorrow.
Off to LA tomorrow to see the Friday and Sat games with my kids and grandson. Looking forward to two Ws.
12 Walk Offs is amazing.
Pleased for Kike on his Bobblehead night, and as others have said, getting Corey firing will be like having a new player.
When Verdugo comes back, there are gonna be some really tough decisions.
I like Beaty – he is a real gamer.