The New Paradigm

I am not going to belabor this point, but most of us grew up in an era where batting average was king. Von Joshua, who was a Dodger for a few years, had a ten-year major league career with a .273 Batting Average (BA), which is not too bad. However, his On-Base Percentage (OBP) was .306, and his On Base Plus Slugging (OPS) was .686. Actually, a new stat that many rely on is OPS+. OPS+ takes a player’s on-base plus slugging percentage and normalizes the number across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks.

OPS plus and WRC can be used interchangeably. They are both based off the offensive environment. 100 is always average, and they scale the same. OPS+, ort “adjusted OPS”, is a closely related statistic. OPS+ is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played, but not for fielding position. An OPS+ of 100 is defined to be the league average. An OPS+ of 150 or more is excellent and 125 very good, while an OPS+ of 75 or below is poor.

Why am I talking all this jibberish, you may wonder? Well, Andrew Friedman and many other of the New Generation Baseball Ops Guys, use these statistics as a better measure of how valuable a player is. You can consider BA, but they regard it as just a “thing.” OPS+ is King for our purposes, although I a sure that teams like the Dodgers have their own statistics and algorithms to value a player.

WAR is useful as is wRC+. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with the league average after controlling for park effects.  The league average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above the league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than a league-average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below the league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than the league average.

wRC+ is easier to find, so I am going to start using it over OPS+ to measure the statistical value of a player. Therefore, it should be no surprise that Shohei Ohtani is the best player in baseball, according to wRC+. He is at 177. Ronald Acuna, Jr. is 2nd at 168. Freddie Freeman is #5 with a 152, and Mookie Bets is at #7 with a 150. If you are 150 or above, you are definitely a “SUPERSTAR.” Welcome back, Mookie! Will Smith is #13 with a 140. Surprisingly, JD Martinez is at 119, which is good, not great. Max Muncy, so far, is at 114.

James Outman is at 103. Jason Heyward is at 125, and David Peralta is at 102 (and climbing). Miguel Vargas is at 84 (and falling). Trea Turner is at 85! CT3 is at 94, and Miguel Rojas is at 55. Of course, this is purely an offensive stat, so Rojas’s defensive value is not considered, but a strong case could be made that Mookie Betts is the Dodgers’ best option at SS. By the way, for all of you who wanted Toim Anderson, his wRC+ is 49. He is dog dog-doo right about now.

Max Muncy is #11 on the list of third baseman, but the leader, Issac Paredes is at 147, and Jose Ramirez is at 132. Matt Chapman is at 122. Max Muncy was at 162 in 2018, 133 in 2019, and 139 in 2021. The Dodgers believe that he will return to that 130+ wRC+ which is why they will continue to hit him in the middle of the lineup. The Dodger’s problems are not as offensive as much as they are pitching. Their patience with Miguel Vargas has to be growing thin, but remember that last season, Bellinger, Turner, and Muncy were all underperforming by a large margin and they stuck with them. So, it would not surprise me if they stayed with Miguel until after the All-Star Break. However, the leash is short!

Dodger Nuze

• Welcome Back, Julio Urias – It’s good to see you finally show up – now let’s ride!
• If Daniel Hudson makes it back, it will be in September. Don’t count on him, but he is the real deal!
• Noah Syndergaard will be back soon. If he does, it means that Mark Prior and the Dodger believe he can be effective. Past performance is not indicative of future possibilities.
• Clayton Kershaw will likely be on the IL, just a little over the minimum time. Expect him back the week of the 17th.
• Shelby Miller should be back before August – he is sorely missed in the bullpen.
• Reliever Meter: The Dodgers Bullpen is up not nb#23 with a 4.43 ERA (and climbing).
• The Dodgers are 2nd in HR (behind ATL) and 4th in Runs Scored.
• Write this down: The Braves’ offense will sputter in the second half!
• The Dodgers are a half-game out of first place. The D-Bags are a good team, but they will slow down the second half. Too much inexperience and too little depth.
• The Key to the Dodgers’ Offense is Miguel Vargas, but let’s not forget Michael Busch and Devin Mann. If he fails, they should get a chance.
• Max Muncy is looking much better at 3B and he has been working at getting better.
• Busch had a 3-Run HR last night!
• Gus Varland, who was returned to the Dodgers in Rule 5 has been excellent out of the bullpen.
• Tulsa got smoked 8-2. That’s what happens when you walk 13 batters!
• Kyle Hurt won’t move up until he can quit walking so many batters.
• Maddux Bruns (GL) went five innings and allowed one hit while striking out nine and walking four. If he can cut down on his walks, he will be lethal. He is averaging more than one walk per inning!
• One final thing: I do not panic, and neither will Andrew Friedman. If he does nothing, I will be just fine!