I am not going to belabor this point, but most of us grew up in an era where batting average was king. Von Joshua, who was a Dodger for a few years, had a ten-year major league career with a .273 Batting Average (BA), which is not too bad. However, his On-Base Percentage (OBP) was .306, and his On Base Plus Slugging (OPS) was .686. Actually, a new stat that many rely on is OPS+. OPS+ takes a player’s on-base plus slugging percentage and normalizes the number across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks.
OPS plus and WRC can be used interchangeably. They are both based off the offensive environment. 100 is always average, and they scale the same. OPS+, ort “adjusted OPS”, is a closely related statistic. OPS+ is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played, but not for fielding position. An OPS+ of 100 is defined to be the league average. An OPS+ of 150 or more is excellent and 125 very good, while an OPS+ of 75 or below is poor.
Why am I talking all this jibberish, you may wonder? Well, Andrew Friedman and many other of the New Generation Baseball Ops Guys, use these statistics as a better measure of how valuable a player is. You can consider BA, but they regard it as just a “thing.” OPS+ is King for our purposes, although I a sure that teams like the Dodgers have their own statistics and algorithms to value a player.
WAR is useful as is wRC+. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with the league average after controlling for park effects. The league average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above the league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than a league-average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below the league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than the league average.
wRC+ is easier to find, so I am going to start using it over OPS+ to measure the statistical value of a player. Therefore, it should be no surprise that Shohei Ohtani is the best player in baseball, according to wRC+. He is at 177. Ronald Acuna, Jr. is 2nd at 168. Freddie Freeman is #5 with a 152, and Mookie Bets is at #7 with a 150. If you are 150 or above, you are definitely a “SUPERSTAR.” Welcome back, Mookie! Will Smith is #13 with a 140. Surprisingly, JD Martinez is at 119, which is good, not great. Max Muncy, so far, is at 114.
James Outman is at 103. Jason Heyward is at 125, and David Peralta is at 102 (and climbing). Miguel Vargas is at 84 (and falling). Trea Turner is at 85! CT3 is at 94, and Miguel Rojas is at 55. Of course, this is purely an offensive stat, so Rojas’s defensive value is not considered, but a strong case could be made that Mookie Betts is the Dodgers’ best option at SS. By the way, for all of you who wanted Toim Anderson, his wRC+ is 49. He is dog dog-doo right about now.
Max Muncy is #11 on the list of third baseman, but the leader, Issac Paredes is at 147, and Jose Ramirez is at 132. Matt Chapman is at 122. Max Muncy was at 162 in 2018, 133 in 2019, and 139 in 2021. The Dodgers believe that he will return to that 130+ wRC+ which is why they will continue to hit him in the middle of the lineup. The Dodger’s problems are not as offensive as much as they are pitching. Their patience with Miguel Vargas has to be growing thin, but remember that last season, Bellinger, Turner, and Muncy were all underperforming by a large margin and they stuck with them. So, it would not surprise me if they stayed with Miguel until after the All-Star Break. However, the leash is short!
Dodger Nuze
- Welcome Back, Julio Urias – It’s good to see you finally show up – now let’s ride!
- If Daniel Hudson makes it back, it will be in September. Don’t count on him, but he is the real deal!
- Noah Syndergaard will be back soon. If he does, it means that Mark Prior and the Dodger believe he can be effective. Past performance is not indicative of future possibilities.
- Clayton Kershaw will likely be on the IL, just a little over the minimum time. Expect him back the week of the 17th.
- Shelby Miller should be back before August – he is sorely missed in the bullpen.
- Reliever Meter: The Dodgers Bullpen is up not nb#23 with a 4.43 ERA (and climbing).
- The Dodgers are 2nd in HR (behind ATL) and 4th in Runs Scored.
- Write this down: The Braves’ offense will sputter in the second half!
- The Dodgers are a half-game out of first place. The D-Bags are a good team, but they will slow down the second half. Too much inexperience and too little depth.
- The Key to the Dodgers’ Offense is Miguel Vargas, but let’s not forget Michael Busch and Devin Mann. If he fails, they should get a chance.
- Max Muncy is looking much better at 3B and he has been working at getting better.
- Busch had a 3-Run HR last night!
- Gus Varland, who was returned to the Dodgers in Rule 5 has been excellent out of the bullpen.
- Tulsa got smoked 8-2. That’s what happens when you walk 13 batters!
- Kyle Hurt won’t move up until he can quit walking so many batters.
- Maddux Bruns (GL) went five innings and allowed one hit while striking out nine and walking four. If he can cut down on his walks, he will be lethal. He is averaging more than one walk per inning!
- One final thing: I do not panic, and neither will Andrew Friedman. If he does nothing, I will be just fine!
Discussion (27)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Justin Turner–7 game RBI streak
Maybe not platooning all the time or at least the threat of it eases bellies mind! He ain’t coming back to the dodgers! With all the things Mookie does , how is he not a superstar? All I’ve heard for the last few years is Juan Soto is a megastar. I’ll take Mookie 7 days a week! Bring giolita here Friedman!
Well hopefully the Pirates will get a win tomorrow just to allow us the chance to step into the division lead. It would just be better the sooner even though I’m certain it’ll happen very shortly. All that money San Diego spent only made them lesser of a team, at least so far. Think they’ll be sellers? Who’d want their mistakes. I am almost shocked they’ve done so badly I have to admit but I never had them in front of us. So GOOO DODGERS!!! and Pirates too! (for tomorrow)
Bradley will be happy. Schoop was DFA’d by the Tigers today.
Maybe tonight went a ways toward convincing Ohtani that things would be really nice farther up the freeway.
I hope Freddie and Mookie smiled and struck up conversations with him while he was on the bases. 🙂
If only Mookie was a superstar
Turned on game late and thought Anderson started tonight. My bad. Tho still need a RH outfield bat. Peralta and Heyward are Barnes like against lefties.
So what is DeLuca doing here if he isn’t starting against lefties. Peralta and Heyward are not the answer against left handed pitching. We need a RH outfield bat.
It was asked how much velocity Kershaw has lost over the years when Beiber was suggested and it was reported that he had lost 2-3 MPH in the past 2-3 years on his fastball.
Here’s Kershaw’s Fastball in 2015: 94.3 MPH
Here’s Kershaw’s Fastball in 2023 : 91.2 MPH
3 MPH is 9 years!
We said it before and it still stands. No personal attacks period. Do that and the post will be deleted.
Giolito shall be. We already has to be worry about diminished velo in Gonzo ( let’s see if he can top 91 tonite ) to bring Beiber.
Bellinger hit a bomb at Yankee stadium in tonight’s Cubs/Yanks game. He would sure be an intriguing trade deadline option. I know a RH hitter is more of the need. Just a thought. Lot of buyers not many sellers it appears.
So Mookie at 2B and Vargas on the bench.
Methinks that Roberts loves how Mookie enables him to play both Heyward and Peralta and enable weaker hitters to sit. One recent day, he moved Mookie back to RF, played Heyward in CF and sat Outman. (I think this was just before his 2 HR game. Perhaps he should do it again.)
When we look at stats like Wins Against Replacement, I can’t imagine it calculates the extra value of Mookie’s versatility. But here we see a struggling rookie with an OPS replaced by a hot-hitting veteran. Acuna will probably win the MVP–he’s a beast having a monster year– but Mookie’s value far exceeds his statistical performance. How many five-tool players can play such a variety of positions? ….
BTW, I share Mark’s surprise that JDM is only a few points ahead of Max in WAR.
But as I’ve pointed out before, if you accept the adage “a walk is as good as a hit,” it makes sense. JDM is worthy all-star, but he strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk much. (Outman has more Ks, but his BB/K ratio is better than JDM’s.) Max’s BA is more than 50 points lower than JDM’s but his OPB is about 30 points higher. Fittingly, given the batting order, Max has more runs, 46 to 41, while JDM has more RBIs, 59 to 51.
They are tied in HRs at 20, meaning that both are on pace to hit more that 35. Nice. The HR totals are all the more impressive since Max has missed 17 games and JDM has missed 16.
Ultimately, though, I give Max the edge in value. Somebody has to play 3B, and it won’t be JDM.
Didn’t the Cubs have a full on tear down in the years leading up to their WS win?
I remember them and Houston competing for the worst record for a few seasons.
Did the Raven fall off his perch?
10:10 PM ET
Angels (45-44)
Dodgers (49-38)
SP Griffin Canning R
6-3 4.29 ERA
SP Tony Gonsolin R
4-3 3.69 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
2B Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Martinez R
LF D. Peralta L
RF J. Heyward L
CF James Outman L
SS Miguel Rojas R
I expect the Dodgers to win the West by a few games in part because I’ve read that the Dodgers actually have one of the weakest second-half schedules. Not sure if it’s true, but that’s what I’ve read.
Then again, this Dodger team often seem to play down to the competition.
I am less worried about the BP than I am about SP even though Urias looks like he’s back to being good Julio,\.
I assume that Kershaw will come back healthy. He and Urias give us a good 1-2 for the playoffs. Miller and Sheehan may or may not progress. Gonsolin? Thor? Pretty shaky.
So who is on AF’s shopping list?
Stroman is having the best season, but Giolito strikes me as a good long-term fit. I wouldn’t rule out Beiber. Of course AF may consider any SP merely a rental if the off-season priority is Ohtani.
And I don’t see why he wouldn’t be.
Not to change the subject, but the Mets are not going to be sellers regardless. Cohen says that sends a bad message to fans, players, and other prospective free agents!
The Cards are not going to trade Aernado or Goldschmidt – PERIOD! They will try and trade Jack Flaherty who has pitched better of late… but is a Free Agent and his arm could fall off. He would be worth a couple of lower prospects.
Eric, Why do you keep going down this dead-end path? You don’t need Mark or Bear to validate your opinions. You have your’s and they have theirs. Just post them and move on and avoid this silly I’m right and your wrong stuff. Or, I am right more time than them. If you think they are bullies, then just ignore them.
just sayin’
DODGERS MINOR LEAGUE NEWS
Dodgers minors: Maddux Bruns, Michael Busch, pitchers of the month
Thursday scores
Albuquerque 9, Oklahoma City 7
Wichita 8, Tulsa 2
Great Lakes 2, Dayton 1 (11 innings)
Inland Empire 5, Rancho Cucamonga 4
Friday schedule
4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Kendall Williams) at Dayton (Chris McElvain)
5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Matt Andriese) vs. Albuquerque (Peter Lambert)
5:05 p.m.: Tulsa (Nick Nastrini) vs. Wichita (Marco Raya)
6:35 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Payton Martin) at Inland Empire (Matt Albright)
One thing that bothers me a little here is the assumption that any team with a losing record is automatically a seller. Today, we’re talking about the Mets selling. Cohen has a spent money like a drunken sailor to put together a successful franchise. A half a season of mediocrity is not going to put them in rebuilding mode.
I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be sellers. They’re having a terrible year, but there was an expectation that they were going to be good, and they were a playoff team last year. I don’t think they’re going to give up and sell Arrenado or Goldshcmidt.
A team that’s selling is a team that is in true rebuilding mode. The Nationals were in rebuilding mode when they traded the Dodgers Scherzer and TT.
Anyone on the Mets we might be interested in? Maybe they could work out a deal on the road trip?
https://twitter.com/molly_knight/status/1676974654702120961
It will be interesting to see what it takes to get Bieber and if AF is willing to match it. After last seasons blah at the deadline, I’m ready to be shocked by AF this year. We have a lot of prospect capital to use or lose eventually
Key player for the second half is Tony Gonsolin.
To what extent will the new rules regarding holding runners on/ stealing bases affect analytics? For example, someone who gets a base hit and steals second has effectively hit a double. Yet with regards to OPS, the hitter does not get any benefit. I wonder if a stat, call it OPSeffective would better quantify the role speed now plays in the game.
Landon Knack is on the Taxi squad and might get a start this weekend. D-Backs outfielder Corbin Carroll was injured on a swing in last night’s game. Looks like a shoulder issue and it could be season-ending. Mets swept the D-Backs and have won four in a row, They are the Dodgers first opponent after the All-Star break when they go on a three city road trip to New York, Baltimore and Texas before coming home to face Toronto, Cincinnati and Oakland.
Agree on Vargas. Yes, he is the key to the Dodgers (postseason) offense. If he would begin to hit as expected it would make this lineup even deeper.
Bruns is armed with some of the best pure stuff of any Dodger LHP since Clayton .
If the Dodgers should engage in a big trade or two I am sure the other team will insist on him being part of a potential trade .
I would hate to give him up.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!