The Dodgers’ hopes to win a World Series in 2023 hinge on a lot of things, including JD Martinez’s resurgence, J-Heys and David Peralta’s ability to come back, the pitching staff’s health, the ability of rookies to seize the day, and whether Freeman, Smith, Muncy & Betts can have All-Star Caliber years. However, nothing is more vital to the Dodgers’ hopes than Gavin Lux and his ability to play SS. This is simply because if he cannot do it at the expected level, then a lot of other changes may have to occur at other positions.
I like Gavin Lux, and I think this could be a breakout year for his bat. However, I have often questioned his ability to play SS… and I will just leave it at that. I HOPE I AM WRONG! I hope that Gavin Lux seizes the day and makes us forget Trea Turner. In case you don’t know, Trea Turner had a couple of years of experience before his age-25 season. But at 25 years old, Trea “broke out” with his first good year, hitting .271 with a .344 OB%… albeit with a .760 OPS. He hit 19 HR in 704 ABs and stole 44 bases.
In case you don’t know, Trea and Gavin are both 6′ 2″ and are both listed at 185 and 190, respectively. However, Gavin has allegedly put on 15 pounds of “muscle” over the winter. That could help in the power department as well as on defense if that translated into having a stronger throwing arm. Gavin has had a “fringy” arm in the past, which has caused him to rush his throws… sometimes to his detriment!
If his arm is stronger, then it becomes more likely that he can play the position, leaving Miguel Vargas at 2B, Muncy at 3B, and Peralta in LF (or J-Hey). It all boils down to Gavin Lux. I certainly am rooting for him; it is the perfect scenario. I also believe with his increased strength and the elimination of the shift that, Gavin will benefit immensely.
Mookie has allegedly added 8-10 pounds of muscle, and with the addition of old buddy JD Martinez, we can hope that he has another year as he did in 2018! That would be huge! At some juncture this season, I would expect to see Gavin Lux hit #1 or #2, in front or behind Mookie. Then, with Freeman at #3, JDM at #4, Max at #5, Will Smith at #6 and Miguel Vargas hitting 7th, the Dodgers will have a fearsome 1-7.
What happens at CF and LF will determine whether the Dodgers are simply “good” or potentially “great.” These are the names who will most likely determine whether the Dodgers’ #8 and #9 hitters are bad, good, or great:
- David Peralta – LF
- Jason Heyward – LF
- Chris Taylor- LF or CR
- Trayce Thompson – LF or CF
- James Outman – CF
My guess is that Outman wins the CF job, with Peralta and Heyward making the team and CT3 playing CF or LF against tough lefthanders. That’s the best-case scenario; however, if one position is a “black hole,” then Andrew Friedman will not be shy to make a trade at the deadline. We have likely not heard the last about Bryan Reynolds unless a couple of the five aforementioned players make his irrelevant. Finally, don’t forget about Mike Busch!
We are in Georgia around the Alpharetta and Cumming area, staying on Lake Lanier. We are considering buying a vacation home on the Lake. We love this area.
Discussion (32)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The Dodgers have lots of options, and it is highly unlikely that any trades will be finalized before the deadline.
Urias
Kershaw
Gosolin
Burnes
Syndeguard
May closer
Smith
Barnes
Freeman
Lux
Addames
Rojas
Muncy
Peralta
Taylor
Outman
Betts
Martinez
Heyward
Trade with Brewers in spring training because Vargas got hurt. If Busch is so good trade him to Brewers you get addames at age 27 and Burnes age 25.
Hmm if Burnes wants out and Addames SS is free agent next year and the dodgers have prospects wouldn’t it make since to go after those two and sign them long term you get an ace with Buehler Gosling and two others in 2024. Your infield is set for awhile Vargas can come up ne the utility guy like Taylor play outfield or infield and you still have Taylor Rojas Peralta Outman Betts Muncy Martinez Smith means Thompson is in OKC or traded Heyward is on bench as fourth outfielder until Vargas heals Barnes bench player makes sense. But you think they won’t do anything and have Michael Busch be the starting second baseman. And you call me smoking the peace pipe. A minor league guy to start at second base. If anything rojas shortstop lux at second and Busch on the bench.
Well Busch is blocked and if Rushing is as good as you say he is. Burnes could win you 2 post season games per series. Just sayin.
Cartaya and Busch for Burnes. Who says no?
Second baseman the dodgers could get this late Brendan Rodgers Rockies, Brandon Solano Reds, whit Merrifield Bluejays, Gelymer Torres Yankees, Jazz Chisholm Marlins, all decent hitters that could play every day at second base for dodgers with Lux at shortstop. All thos teams would be happy getting minor league guys from dodgers who starts for the pirates I say starting second baseman and Reynolds why not. Were the Dodgers we do those kinds of trades because all players always want to be Dodgers right.
Is the injury to Vargas going to keep him on the IL for a long time? Do wrist injuries take a long time? If so I suspect Busch will take his place as a starter, not on the bench with Rojas starting, and this will further expose the lack of offense vs LHP on paper.
Is there any centerfielder and second baseman we could get that can hit well and trade with someone now that Vargas is hurt. Let’s see where is whit merrifield and taht Taylor guy that palys Centerfield used to be with nationals aren’t they both on the Royals. Wait a minute the twins have a second baseman that is pretty good and the centerfielder is Buxton man would he look good leading off in front of Betts. Time to research second baseman and centerfielder that could start for the Dodgers. Yankees have Gelymer Torres and CF Brader that’s a possibility only because he used to play in St Louis and Yankees need pitching dodgers do have that.
Did anyone notice the post about Will Smith? His batting splits were not nearly as good when he caught as when he was the DH:
As catcher: .242/.340/.404/.807, 15 HR in 465 PA (3.2% HR rate), 77 K (16.6% K rate)
As DH: .330/.426/1.167, 9 HR in 108 PA (8.3% HR rate), 18 K (16.6% K rate)
Roberts has said that JDM will be DHing 99% of the time. Last year, Smith was one of the Dodgers’ best hitters in the clutch (splits RISP .287/.393/.453/.847) and having him in the heart of the order was important. So now they will have Barnes in 2 times per week and Smith riding the pine?
A trade for Reynolds is too much in prospects going to the Pirates in my opinion only, just me. An outfield of Betts RF, Outman CF, Peralta and Taylor platooning LF and I expect Peralta/Taylor doing that, will be just fine.
I suspect that Smith will get some at bats as DH when he gets rest from catching. I don’t take Doc seriously when he says something because I’ve seen a lot of times it isn’t the case.
I suspect the starters will be Martinez, Smith, Freeman, Vargas, Lux, Muncy, Betts, Outman, Peralta/Taylor platooning. Bench will be Barnes, Rojas, one of Peralta/Taylor, and a spot open right now. Hopefully and he should, AF will get someone that hits LHP good, not only to be a pinch hitter but also insurance to platoon with Outman if needed.
This is not the news Dodger fans want to see. On Monday, it was announced that Dodgers infielder Miguel Vargas suffered an injury in his right hand, that will keep him from swinging the bat for a few weeks. The injury is said to be a fractured bone in his right hand, and Vargas suffered it when he took a ground ball off the pinkie finger on his right hand. The team took an X-Ray and it showed a hairline fracture.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that J.D. Martinez will be the club’s designated hitter “99.9 percent of the time,” though Martinez isn’t necessarily expected to play all 162 games. This plan differs from the Dodgers’ rotational use of the DH spot last season, and in particular, Will Smith will be slated for more full rest days with Martinez on board, as Los Angeles often used Smith at DH on days when he wasn’t catching. As productive a bat as Smith has been, he might be even better with a bit more rest, and ideally Martinez’s offense would further enhance the Dodgers’ lineup punch.
Not good news about Vargas as much as counting on him don’t need no setbacks or lingering effects
Look at this lineup I came up with
Lux ss
Betts. Rf
Freeman 1b
Martinez DH
Smith C
Muncy 3b
Reynolds. Cf
Vargas 2b
Peralta/taylor Lf
Now tahts a world series contending lineup right there with Barnes Heyward Rojas on the bench if Outman doesn’t hit by deadline that’s the lineup the dodgers need if Outman hits then he will be where Reynolds is in the lineup.
Bear I’m 100% with you on all the strikeouts. Last year got so frustrating with so many players with huge k rates. Unless hitting 35 bombs and driving in 100 I’m at the point rather not see anyone playing much with a k rate above 30 which is why I’m so down on Thompson and Taylor and recent bottom of order in general. Sure hope we change that
It’s great being a Dodger fan, a class organization with a rich deep history who happens to be winningest team in baseball last ten years and no fan can be more blessed than to grow up listening to vin. Proud to bleed Dodger blue
Jim Bowden in The Athletic on Diego Cartaya:
In my view, Cartaya is the best catching prospect in the sport. Signed as an amateur out of Venezuela in 2018 for $2.5 million, Cartaya is certainly living up to that bonus. He’s an above-average hitter who knows how to work a count. He uses the whole field, with strong opposite-field power. (Overall, he has 20- to 25-home run power.) He’s an above-average defensive receiver with a plus-plus throwing arm. I’ve mentioned this conversation before, but it bears repeating: When I talked to former manager Mike Scioscia during the Futures Game last July at Dodger Stadium, he compared Cartaya to a cross between Buster Posey and Salvador Perez. Keep in mind Perez has five Gold Gloves, four Silver Slugger awards, seven All-Star appearances, and he won a world championship. Posey won a Rookie of the Year Award, an MVP, five Silver Slugger honors, a Gold Glove and three World Series. Not bad company. For Scioscia, a former All-Star catcher who played 13 years in the majors and managed for another 19 years, to make that type of comparison was eye-opening. Based on what I’ve seen, I might not go that far, but I did rank Cartaya as the third-best prospect in baseball last August.
Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes: “Diego’s combination of at-bat quality and ability to do damage is exciting. What’s equally impressive is the way he handles a pitching staff and navigates a game behind the plate. He possesses true leadership qualities and makes those around him better.”
Today, MLB.com posted one player from each team with the most to prove. This was the Dodgers:
Dodgers: SS Gavin Lux
Lux had a solid season in 2022, posting a .745 OPS in 129 games, all while playing second base. This season, Lux’s role will continue to increase as he enters Spring Training as the Dodgers’ everyday shortstop, replacing the departed Trea Turner. Chris Taylor is also another player that could benefit from a strong camp, but all eyes will be on Lux and how he steps into his new — and incredibly important — role. — Juan Toribio
We had several rally killers last year….
Before the all-star break there was Belli, Max, Taylor and JT.
After the break, Max and JT both improved, but Belli and Taylor still sucked, and then Gallo and, at the end, Vargas did their disappointing parts.
So it often seemed that the Dodgers weren’t hitting on all cylinders…
And yet, the team still had the biggest run differential in the majors while racking up 111 wins.
Even with Trea gone, the Dodgers offense actually might improve this season.
And I’m even more optimistic about the pitchers.
It’s nice to root for the Dodgers.
I liked the old stats better, easier to read and understand. But I get how important runs scored are. But you still need that big gun RBI guy. I would love to see someone pass Tommy Davis’s LA Dodger record. 153. Five more days and they take the field for the first time this spring. Pitchers usually go at most two innings the first spring games.
I liked lux hitting in the nine hole last year to was like having a second lead off hitter as game progressed. He also seemed more relaxed there. But might not be as doable this year without Trea’s speed up top
Bradley’s right about Lux batting ninth and setting the table for Betts and Freeman. It worked really well last year. It may also be a good idea to split up some of our more strikeout-prone hitters (two in a row are real rally-killers). I don’t necessarily believe in stacking all our best hitters together and then having, say, our three worst hitters stuck together at the end of the lineup. Another rally-killer strategy or even an inning-killer. We’ve got to save Doc from his over-strategizing self, if we can.
Why not have Lux bat last. Just take lux out of six hole move everyone up in that order you have. And that way Betts can hit Lux in for more RBI chances. Then have Outman bat last. Think they should surround Outman around the seventh spot between Taylor and Vargas. Then Lux last. Or have Lux bat first then betts Freeman and then Peralta/Taylor bat last in the order.
Lux strikes me as the biggest question mark, mostly on defense. I don’t think he’s proved enough on offense to move toward the top of the lineup. (And obviously, Vargas hasn’t proved anything yet on the ML level, but the hopes are high.)
Anyway, I like this lineup:
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Martinez
Lux
Peralta/Taylor
Vargas
Outman
–Even though Mookie’s OBP was down in 2022, his power and baserunning skills helped him lead the league with 117 runs scored. He tied with Freddie–but Freddie played something like 17 more games. Mookie’s “counting stats” would have improved if not for the injuries that kept him out of the lineup.
–I love, love, love the idea of the team’s best hitter batting 2nd. Freddie should lead the team again in BA, hits and OBP. Nice one-two punch at the top.
–Smith is starting to get the credit he deserves. His OPS was basically equal to Trea’s in 2002–and he’s still young and improving.
–Max may be the team’s best slugger. When healthy, he’s a 35-HR threat–and he works the counts to get a high OBP
–JDM is a professional hitter who is looking to reenergize his career by rejoining Van Scoyoc and Mookie in LA.
–Lux has become a good hitter. Early on, he couldn’t hit lefties. He’s fixed that, it seems, and had a great first half in 2022 before injuries weakened him. With the added muscle, he should show more power.
–A veteran platoon of Peralta and Taylor should provide solid production.
–Vargas will get his runway.
–And maybe Outman will too.
Outman, Trayce and Heyward are competing for the last two spots. One of them is getting pushed to OKC by Peralta. My guess now is that it will be Trayce, back in the journeyman role, waiting for somebody to get injured. And Busch will likely be there too.
Change is coming
First interesting injurie of the spring. Twins prospect, Jordan Balazovic will miss the start of spring training due to a broken jaw from an off-field incident. Translation: He got into a fight. They described it as a verbal altercation. Guy must have a wicked tongue. He had surgery and could begin to play catch in 7-10 days. In other news, MLB has formed what it is calling the Economic Reform Committee. Dodgers’ chairman, Mark Walter is the chair of the committee. Other members include Chris Illich of the Tigers, John Henry of the Red Sox, and Don Monfort of the Rockies. As you can see it is an owners committee. The catalyst for the committee seems to be the impending collapse of Diamond Sports Group, That could open the door for MLB to begin work on a league-wide streaming service with no blackouts. There are obstacles to overcome for that to happen obviously.
One of my closest friends in Vietnam was from Forest Park Georgia, a suburb of Atlanta. I stopped there on my way to NY in ‘72. Beautiful state. I couldn’t live there.
Most important player? I get your point about Lux, but for me the M.I.P. is a player the team would miss the most, and that would be one of Betts, Freeman or Urias. Tough call. I’ll pick Betts.
Tommy Bobbles.
I miss Tommy lots still.
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRtExPfp/
Last couple years at least bottom of order and bench has been a huge weak spot and not looking much better this year unless Outman can shine thru in a big way but that’s a big if. Feel ok with Peralta facing righties and Taylor is a serviceable utility guy. We’ve seen already what the rest of options been doing last few years and it isn’t much no matter how optimistic one wants to believe. IMO gonna have to find better players be it rookies or trades if expect to far in October
I’m gonna guess that that is a manmade rec lake with so much island property but still quite undeveloped. Got to be careful there the whole day through.
Totally agree Mark. Lux is the most crucial piece. I’d like to see him bat 2nd. He’d get to see a lot of good pitches there between Mookie and Freddie. But I can’t wait to see what Busch does this spring!
Good piece, Mark. I’ve been thinking about that bottom of the lineup and agree it could be a weak spot. I’m not convinced Peralta was a guy they really wanted but an affordable piece left over that their budget could accommodate. I have him pencilled into LF against RHP and most likely Taylor in CF against LHP. That leaves Trayce, Heyward, Outman and Zimmer to sort out the rest of the at-bats.
I was reading last night about Busch turning into a utilityman. Maybe in the future everyone will be.
Whatever we think about Taylor, he’s definitely insurance if something goes wrong anywhere in the diamond. Chances are we’ll get to see that in action early in the year.
Never been to GA . . .