The Master Plan Unfolds
Mark Timmons Weekly Newsletter – Sunday, August 4, 2024 The biggest problem Dodger fans (actually all fans) have is that they are fanatical. Well, Duhhhhh… That’s what makes them (me) fans. A fanatical person is motivated by an extreme and often unquestioning enthusiasm…
Mark Timmons Weekly Newsletter – Sunday, August 4, 2024
The biggest problem Dodger fans (actually all fans) have is that they are fanatical.
Well, Duhhhhh… That’s what makes them (me) fans.
A fanatical person is motivated by an extreme and often unquestioning enthusiasm, devotion, or zeal for something, such as a religion, political affiliation, saving the whales, or a dedication to a sports team… especially the LA Dodgers. They are so fanatical that they frequently engage in circular reasoning to justify their beliefs. There is no reason to accept their premises unless one already believes the conclusion or that the premises provide no independent ground or evidence for the conclusion.
Many fans also suffer from nearsightedness, which is a common vision condition in which close objects look clear but far objects look blurry. In other words, all we see is what is in front of us. We can’t see what might be in the distance. For the past few years, the Dodgers have almost always won the NL West by the end of August, and the only time they didn’t, they beat the Giants in the playoffs. Maybe we need to learn something there.
The Dodgers are 4-6 in their last ten games. By the way, the great Phillies are 2-8. The Diamondbacks and Padres are both 8-2 in their last ten games and 4.5 and 5.0 games behind the Dodgers, respectively. The Padres and D-Bags are playing their best baseball of the year. The Dodgers have yet to do so. This time last year, the Diamondbacks and Rangers were not even a thought, but they both ended up in the World Series. The Dodgers pitching is currently in disarray. The Dodgers are #9 in all of MLB in team ERA with a 3.79 ERA. The Braves are #1 with a 3.45 ERA, so that is not a lot of difference. The Padres are 16th with a 4.03 ERA, while the D-Bags are at #26 with a whopping 4.51 ERA. Yes, both teams made some deals and are getting players back, but so are the Dodgers. The Dodgers are still in the TOP FOUR of just about every offensive category, including OPS, BA, OB%, and Runs Scored.
Freddie Freeman is one of the best first basemen in baseball and a clutch hitter. His teammates also love him, and his absence is certainly a downer for the Dodgers. He will be back as soon as his son, Max, progresses, and I can see the Dodgers rallying with “Pray for Max Patches” on their uniforms when Freddie returns (figuratively or literally). Mookie Betts will be back, and look for him to have a slow start, only to come on with a vengeance! I think he will go back to SS with Rosario and Lux playing 2B.
In 2023, the Texas Rangers won the World Series while they were 21st in Team ERA (4.21). Their closers (Will Smith. Josh Sborz, Aroldolis Chapman, and Jose Leclerc were a combined 30 for 47 in save attempts and had a combined ERA of over 4.00 during the regular season! But they got hot at the right time. Josh Sborz had a 5.50 ERA in the regular season but a 0.75 ERA in the playoffs. “That is because Bruce Bochy is a freaking genius!” Right? I know someone is going to say that. Sborz had never pitched well before the playoffs in the history of his career, nor has he pitched like that since. But it happened. The Rangers even backed into the playoffs by losing the last game that would have clinched the division – they were a Wild Card!
The Dodgers have been playing like crap for several weeks… and Doc is showing no urgency. I am glad to see that. There is no urgency. Don’t worry about it. Let this play out before you pull the Fire Alarm or go to the whip down the stretch! As I mentioned earlier, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts (both All-Stars and potential MVPs) will be returning. Also, according to the Dodgers website, “Max Muncy, who has taken far longer to recover from a right oblique strain than initially expected, had a “breakthrough” in his recovery after having a chiropractor come in for a procedure that really worked, according to manager Dave Roberts. Muncy is set to participate in a simulated game on Aug. 8 at Dodger Stadium, a big step forward in what will likely be a lengthy rehab process because of the amount of time he has missed.” This team has the horses to win it all!
Yamamoto threw a Bullpen Session yesterday, and if he recovers well, he will start a rehab assignment and likely return in late August. Ryan Bassier and Brusdar Graterol are nearing ready, as is Michael Grove, who fills the Ryan Yarbrough Role. Tommy Edman, Walker Buehler, and Miguel Rojas will also return soon, with expectations remaining low, but you never know—this is baseball.
When Mookie and Freddie Return, I think you will see the alarm sounded, and Doc will go to the whip! I have a feeling this is going to be a fun September with no Cruise Control allowed! Oh, and BTW, Jack Flaherty looked pretty dang good last night. He is a horse. I thought his arm was ready to fall off a year ago, but it turns out it was all mechanical and training-related.
I think Heyward and Pages will platoon in RF. Tommy Edman and Kevin Kiermaier will patrol CF with Teo in LF. James Outman will be the odd man out.
In September:
- Betts – SS
- Ohtani – DH
- Freeman 1B
- Teoscar LF
- Muncy 3B
- Smith C
- Lux/Rosario 2B (definitely a L-R Platoon)
- Heyward/Pages RF
- Keiermaier/Edman CF
Rotation:
- Glasnow
- Flaherty
- Yamamoto
- Stone, Wrobleski, Kershaw, Ryan, Knack, Buehler (pick ’em)
I am not counting on Buehler or Kershaw, but neither am I betting against them. If I had to bet, I would bet that at least one of them would turn it around. Evan Phillips has been too good in the past, and I think this is just a bump in the road for him. He will be back and better for this. This is uncharted ground, and I am eager to watch it play out. To sum this all up, the Padres and D-Bags are playing their best baseball now. The Dodgers’ best baseball is yet to come!
P.S. Jeff Dominique is a very smart guy. Some of the people at LA Dodger Chronicles thought I was disrespecting Jeff with what I said earlier… Jeff knew better. Jeff understood that I was disrespecting the Morons on his site (yeah, I have plenty here too). I read what Jeff lays down. He’s as astute as they come, and I wish him a quick recovery from his knee surgery. I also appreciate 2demeter2 and the Grizzly Bear.
Rants & Raves
- Gavin Lux is up to .240 and climbing, and Kike Hernandez has bounced up to .208 after his 3-4 night.
- Cavan Biggio remains a very useful ballplayer, but his lack of hitting will soon cost him his job.
- Michael Kopech is on the path to being a lockdown reliever of the first degree!
- I see a IL stint for Stone. He needs rest, but when Graterol, Brasier, and Grove come back, who else goes down? Ryan and who? Honeywell is looking good too. This is a good problem to have…
- Kike can close too… 😉
- Today, we go Rollin’ on the River!
- I’ll be back next Sunday… Carry on!
X-Cites
See you next Sunday..
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Discussion (198)
Disagree, not disagreeable
As bad as things have been lately for the Dodgers,they are 1 1/2 game behind the Phillies for the best record in the National League with a record of 64-47 vs the Phillies 65-45. This is a big 3 game series vs the Phillies starting Monday.Hopefully Freeman is back and his son is on the road to a full recovery.
Betts (hand) and the Dodgers are targeting a return to the lineup during their next road trip, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
“Betts has been out since mid-June after suffering a fracture in his left wrist/hand and he took batting practice with the team Wednesday. The Dodgers will begin their next road trip Aug. 12 in Milwaukee with a four-game set with the Brewers before they’ll play three games in St. Louis. If the timeline remains true, Betts will likely begin a rehab assignment in the coming days”.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters earlier Saturday in Oakland that both Graterol and Grove could be activated by the Dodgers during their homestand which runs from Monday to next Sunday. From Bill Plunkett in the Orange County Register, Roberts added, “Those two guys have checked the boxes they need to check.”
“Oliver Gonzalez, the 17-year-old Panamanian right-hander acquired from the Cardinals in Monday’s three-team trade that also brought Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech to Los Angeles, made his Dodgers organizational debut on Saturday. Pitching for the DSL Dodgers Mega team, Gonzalez struck out three in three scoreless innings in his start, allowing only two singles”.
thanks mark for keeping my sunday morning routine alive! Biggio probably cost Jack a seventh or maybe eighth inning gem. But that’s ok, don’t need another pitcher on the IL!! Dbacks lost, friars won . 5 game lead. River Ryan. today, keep rolling on the River!! .. Every time i criticize Kiki he has his once a week good game! So Kiki, your spectacles suck!! Take that! …. AF maybe stole the trade deadline with Kopech and Flaherty! Throw in Rosario (when they let him play) and not bad at all! KK will probably save a few runs with his defense . poor James out of the picture the rest of this season! If Yamamoto comes back healthy, with Glasnow and Jack F, lookout! Clayton will be fine. River Ryan could be the wildcard!! Gavin Stone looks like he might need an IL visit for a rest. …. Walker ain’t gonna help i’m afraid.
Good win for the Dodgers and a very good debut for Jack Flaherty.
Sometimes, I wonder how San Diego keeps making trades. They’ve depleted the farm system several times, but somehow they find enough prospects to make big deals. I thought the Dodgers did well at the trade deadline. They really needed to add another starter and they got Flaherty.
Skubal was never going to happen and Crocket had an incredibly high price tag. The Dodgers managed to retain their top prospects and improve the team.
As the Dodgers move forward with IL players returning, all you can do is ask for good health and hopefully those players can regain their form.
I do recall the days of Gavin Lux being considered a very good hitter. The injuries more or less derailed him. But now he looks like the player who had been a highly rated prospect.
Based on your September lineup, Kike’Hernandez becomes the odd man out. Would be unfortunate but I think thats how it end up. Unless, does he becomes part of the bullpen?
Have we heard any updates on Rojas?
I like the newsletter, Mark. (Maybe you can do a mailbag too where you answer some questions.)
Justin Wrobleski pitches for Oklahoma City today.
Wow! what a surplus of starters the dodgers could have next season!! Glasnow, Yamamoto,Ryan.Wrobleski, Stone, Gonsolin, May, Frasso, Kershaw, Buehler (maybe), Flaherty(maybe). So why would they trade for the White Sox lefty?? He may want to skip the regular season and just pitch in the playoffs! lol! I wouldn’t mind at all a swap of Buehler for Flaherty! Doubt that would happen. AF won’t spend the money! i’m more concerned about the offense next season! Doubt seriously AF resigns Teo. Although i would love to have him back! Heyward probably gone. Kiki probably gone. i’m not as sure of Pages as i was before. Outman? No clue!! Dodger minor league position players aren’t exactly killing it. Pitching is strong, but except for a couple of positions, concerned. … Look for the “River “ to roll on today!! Probably should have saved 3-4 of those runs last night for today!!! Not exactly an explosive offense out there in Oakland today. … # 1, hopefuls Maximus is getting better!!! #2, Freddie, can’t wait to see you back on first!! that play by Biggio to Jack covering the bag was as bad a throw as you’ll see!! Barnes goes deep today! Book it!
Maybe even Sheehan next year?
I don’t think I’m the only one who stopped watching the game after the bases were loaded and no out, I thought “Same old story again, no more”
I’m pretty sure Betts will return to RF for at least the remainder of this season, which I think would be best for the team.
4:07 PM ET
Dodgers (64-47)
Athletics (46-66)
SP River Ryan R
1-0 .82 ERA
SP Osvaldo Bido R
2-2 5.00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
LF T. Hernandez R
2B Gavin Lux L
RF J. Heyward L
3B E. Hernandez R
1B Cavan Biggio L
SS Amed Rosario R
CF K. Kiermaier L
C A. Barnes R
72° Wind 9 mph Out
I know Kiki has a good hitting game about once a week and he plays good defense, but I wonder why they don’t play Rosario at 3rd? We would have an Ahmed at SS and an Amed at 3rd. Interesting! They need offense and he has a good split with R and L pitching.
Your analysis and projections seem pretty much on target to me, but Doc may want to tinker a bit. (Maybe a weekly report is the way to go.)
After such a long layoff, I doubt we’ll see maximum Max production soon.
So how about the Lux/Rosario batting 5th and Max eased back in at 7th? I’m a strong believe in going with the hot hand, and lineup promotion would be a nice reward for Lux’s improved offense. (Not long ago Lux was in danger of losing even a platoon gig; the best alignment on defense and offense had Rojas at SS and Mookie at 2B full-time.)
Speaking of SS, I remain concerned about Mookie’s defense, especially during a close game in the late innings. I’d rather see Rojas or Ahmed (if he’s still around) at SS, but I certainly don’t want to lose Mookie’s bat.
So Mookie–who now seems like Cesar Tovar with a HOF bat–can either slide over to 2B or up to CF, a position he has played well in the past. Mookie, like Keirmaier and Heyward, is a gold-glove outfielder. Edman won a GG at 2B, and Ahmed earned a couple at SS. Imagine a late-inning defense with Rojas or Ahmed (another gold glover) at SS, Edman at 2B, Mookie at CF, Heyward in RF and Freddie at 1B. Heck, if Teo gets hurt, the Dodgers could keep Keirmaier in there and have SIX gold gloves on D (though I suspect that Ahmed and Biggio are the most likely to be DFA’d.)
Did anybody else see a highlight of Kevin Pillar’s flying Superman catch for the Angels yesterday? Look for it on Youtube. Just spectacular, up there with the best of the year. I’m not sure, but I think Pillar, like Keirmaier, has talked about retiring. I hope not. He’s had a fine season. Many of us no doubt remember Pillar’s brief time with the Dodgers. Assigned to OKC as veteran reinforcement, got called up–and suffered a season-ending injury.
One final thought: I don’t want River Ryan sent back down unless he shows he needs more seasoning.
Again, I like the hot hand. If Ryan continues to impress, let him cook.
it’s ok to speculate!! some say Clayton might not be back. Some sa Walker walks. some say Flaherty probably signs elsewhere,even though he probably wants to be a dodger. some say kiki, heyward, kk, and others won’t be back. so who’s the major outfielder available in the offseason. Teo’s production will be hard to replace. SIGN the guy!! Then we can worry about next year next year! i like to speculate!
Sorry, i forgot about Soto. Great hitter, below average defensive player, and not a great baserunner. Don’t see AF handing him 500 million just so he can be the next DH.
Beyond his talent, an obvious appeal to Soto is his age. He is young enough to make an immediate impact and provide value beyond the current crop of Dodger players. Soto offers stability beyond Freeman, Muncy and the eventual aging of Mookie Betts. Muncy is a FA after next season and Freeman after the 27’ season. Soto’s appeal goes beyond his immediate impact on the field.
@FabianArdaya
Dodgers catching prospect Dalton Rushing is going to be promoted to Triple A, as @Bnicklaus7 said (OKC doesn’t play again until Tuesday after tonight). Worth nothing that Rushing has gotten four starts in left field of late.Along with Dalton Rushing, the Dodgers are also promoting infielder Alex Freeland and right-handed reliever Edgardo Henriquez to Triple A, per a source.
“After 8 long days in the Pediatric ICU we are officially HOME!” Chelsea Freeman wrote Sunday. “Max still has a long road ahead of him to regain his strength and relearn how to walk. But we are so thankful to have our family back together. Thank you God for this miracle. Also, thank you to our incredible team of doctors and angel nurses for taking such good care of our boy. And to our village for helping so much with Charlie and Brandon. #MaxStrong #GBS #gbsawareness #gbssurvivor“
Maximus was diagnosed with a rare case of Guillain-Barré syndrome after going into full body paralysis. The scary incident prompted Freddie Freeman to leave the team amid a road trip to Houston, Texas. He was placed on the family emergency list July 26.
Saturday, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts indicated Freeman might return to the team during the team’s home series against the Philadelphia Phillies beginning Monday.
Roberts said All-Star Mookie Betts (fractured hand), third baseman Max Muncy (oblique strain), infielder Miguel Rojas (forearm strain), utility man Tommy Edman and possibly utility man Chris Taylor (groin injury) will all participate in a simulated game planned for Thursday August 8th at Dodger Stadium. All five are currently on the injured list and will face pitchers brought in from Class-A Rancho Cucamonga.
Juan Soto is a big fan of Shohei Ohtani, and if Shohei made a pitch for him, that would be a game-changer, but Rushing should be able to play LF. I have seen two of his games there and he looks Vargas-esque.
I actually believe the Dodgers have a great chance at signing Soto.
Dalton Rushing’s bat is near ready: At Tulsa he had 281 ABs with a .270 BA, .378 OB%, .512 SLg, and .890 OPS to go with 17 HR and 59 RBI. His strikeout rate was 25%. Is he an option in LF THIS year? I will give you a definite “maybe.” 😉
Freeland was hitting .245 with a .792 OPS but with Sweeney gone, they might as well push him. He was 24-26 in SBs.
Good series win. Lets keep it going.
Kiki just won’t go away! I guess that’s a good thing. Pretty much won that game yesterday singlehanded! Bullpen looked great. Doc pushed the right buttons , except maybe 1. With kiki on 2nd and no outs, why give up an out. Swing the damn bat.! if biggio pulls it to the right side of the infield and he advances , ok. Doc rarely bunts the runner over in the 10th inning with the “ghost runner “! Maybe if they’re lucky biggio finds a hole. Can’t really count on that lineup to hit a sacrifice fly. As much as they strikeout, a seeing eye single probably more likely. …. Wheeler pitched yesterday i believe, so at least they won’t have to worry about him!! Hopefully Freddie is back …. Interested to see who leaves when Graterol and Brasier come back. Banda looked great yesterday. Honeywell has been very good. Could they pull a surprise move and send Joe back to the IL? Tough decisions ahead!
Soto will be a Yankee or Met in 2025 . Bet it!!!! AF will drive the price up if he has any interest. Also Soto is a BorASS client and AF has little interest in dealing with him.