The Master Plan Unfolds
Mark Timmons Weekly Newsletter – Sunday, August 4, 2024 The biggest problem Dodger fans (actually all fans) have is that they are fanatical. Well, Duhhhhh… That’s what makes them (me) fans. A fanatical person is motivated by an extreme and often unquestioning enthusiasm…
Mark Timmons Weekly Newsletter – Sunday, August 4, 2024
The biggest problem Dodger fans (actually all fans) have is that they are fanatical.
Well, Duhhhhh… That’s what makes them (me) fans.
A fanatical person is motivated by an extreme and often unquestioning enthusiasm, devotion, or zeal for something, such as a religion, political affiliation, saving the whales, or a dedication to a sports team… especially the LA Dodgers. They are so fanatical that they frequently engage in circular reasoning to justify their beliefs. There is no reason to accept their premises unless one already believes the conclusion or that the premises provide no independent ground or evidence for the conclusion.
Many fans also suffer from nearsightedness, which is a common vision condition in which close objects look clear but far objects look blurry. In other words, all we see is what is in front of us. We can’t see what might be in the distance. For the past few years, the Dodgers have almost always won the NL West by the end of August, and the only time they didn’t, they beat the Giants in the playoffs. Maybe we need to learn something there.
The Dodgers are 4-6 in their last ten games. By the way, the great Phillies are 2-8. The Diamondbacks and Padres are both 8-2 in their last ten games and 4.5 and 5.0 games behind the Dodgers, respectively. The Padres and D-Bags are playing their best baseball of the year. The Dodgers have yet to do so. This time last year, the Diamondbacks and Rangers were not even a thought, but they both ended up in the World Series. The Dodgers pitching is currently in disarray. The Dodgers are #9 in all of MLB in team ERA with a 3.79 ERA. The Braves are #1 with a 3.45 ERA, so that is not a lot of difference. The Padres are 16th with a 4.03 ERA, while the D-Bags are at #26 with a whopping 4.51 ERA. Yes, both teams made some deals and are getting players back, but so are the Dodgers. The Dodgers are still in the TOP FOUR of just about every offensive category, including OPS, BA, OB%, and Runs Scored.
Freddie Freeman is one of the best first basemen in baseball and a clutch hitter. His teammates also love him, and his absence is certainly a downer for the Dodgers. He will be back as soon as his son, Max, progresses, and I can see the Dodgers rallying with “Pray for Max Patches” on their uniforms when Freddie returns (figuratively or literally). Mookie Betts will be back, and look for him to have a slow start, only to come on with a vengeance! I think he will go back to SS with Rosario and Lux playing 2B.
In 2023, the Texas Rangers won the World Series while they were 21st in Team ERA (4.21). Their closers (Will Smith. Josh Sborz, Aroldolis Chapman, and Jose Leclerc were a combined 30 for 47 in save attempts and had a combined ERA of over 4.00 during the regular season! But they got hot at the right time. Josh Sborz had a 5.50 ERA in the regular season but a 0.75 ERA in the playoffs. “That is because Bruce Bochy is a freaking genius!” Right? I know someone is going to say that. Sborz had never pitched well before the playoffs in the history of his career, nor has he pitched like that since. But it happened. The Rangers even backed into the playoffs by losing the last game that would have clinched the division – they were a Wild Card!
The Dodgers have been playing like crap for several weeks… and Doc is showing no urgency. I am glad to see that. There is no urgency. Don’t worry about it. Let this play out before you pull the Fire Alarm or go to the whip down the stretch! As I mentioned earlier, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts (both All-Stars and potential MVPs) will be returning. Also, according to the Dodgers website, “Max Muncy, who has taken far longer to recover from a right oblique strain than initially expected, had a “breakthrough” in his recovery after having a chiropractor come in for a procedure that really worked, according to manager Dave Roberts. Muncy is set to participate in a simulated game on Aug. 8 at Dodger Stadium, a big step forward in what will likely be a lengthy rehab process because of the amount of time he has missed.” This team has the horses to win it all!
Yamamoto threw a Bullpen Session yesterday, and if he recovers well, he will start a rehab assignment and likely return in late August. Ryan Bassier and Brusdar Graterol are nearing ready, as is Michael Grove, who fills the Ryan Yarbrough Role. Tommy Edman, Walker Buehler, and Miguel Rojas will also return soon, with expectations remaining low, but you never know—this is baseball.
When Mookie and Freddie Return, I think you will see the alarm sounded, and Doc will go to the whip! I have a feeling this is going to be a fun September with no Cruise Control allowed! Oh, and BTW, Jack Flaherty looked pretty dang good last night. He is a horse. I thought his arm was ready to fall off a year ago, but it turns out it was all mechanical and training-related.
I think Heyward and Pages will platoon in RF. Tommy Edman and Kevin Kiermaier will patrol CF with Teo in LF. James Outman will be the odd man out.
In September:
- Betts – SS
- Ohtani – DH
- Freeman 1B
- Teoscar LF
- Muncy 3B
- Smith C
- Lux/Rosario 2B (definitely a L-R Platoon)
- Heyward/Pages RF
- Keiermaier/Edman CF
Rotation:
- Glasnow
- Flaherty
- Yamamoto
- Stone, Wrobleski, Kershaw, Ryan, Knack, Buehler (pick ’em)
I am not counting on Buehler or Kershaw, but neither am I betting against them. If I had to bet, I would bet that at least one of them would turn it around. Evan Phillips has been too good in the past, and I think this is just a bump in the road for him. He will be back and better for this. This is uncharted ground, and I am eager to watch it play out. To sum this all up, the Padres and D-Bags are playing their best baseball now. The Dodgers’ best baseball is yet to come!
P.S. Jeff Dominique is a very smart guy. Some of the people at LA Dodger Chronicles thought I was disrespecting Jeff with what I said earlier… Jeff knew better. Jeff understood that I was disrespecting the Morons on his site (yeah, I have plenty here too). I read what Jeff lays down. He’s as astute as they come, and I wish him a quick recovery from his knee surgery. I also appreciate 2demeter2 and the Grizzly Bear.
Rants & Raves
- Gavin Lux is up to .240 and climbing, and Kike Hernandez has bounced up to .208 after his 3-4 night.
- Cavan Biggio remains a very useful ballplayer, but his lack of hitting will soon cost him his job.
- Michael Kopech is on the path to being a lockdown reliever of the first degree!
- I see a IL stint for Stone. He needs rest, but when Graterol, Brasier, and Grove come back, who else goes down? Ryan and who? Honeywell is looking good too. This is a good problem to have…
- Kike can close too… 😉
- Today, we go Rollin’ on the River!
- I’ll be back next Sunday… Carry on!
X-Cites
See you next Sunday..
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Discussion (198)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Ohtani (elbow) hopes to begin throwing off a mound by early September, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports.
“Ohtani’s current throwing program as he comes back from right UCL surgery has him playing catch from 150 feet three days per week at 85 percent intensity. He will progress to four days per week and then five before being cleared to throw off the mound. As long as all of those stages go off without a hitch, the hope is Ohtani will be able to face hitters either via live batting practice or a simulated game by October. He would then be shut down for a while before eventually ramping things back up in the offseason. Ohtani is aiming to be a two-way player again in 2025”.
I’ll tell ya this….the Padres are a problem. They play with emotion and never give up. I watch them pretty regularly and they’ve had a lot of comeback wins this year. They are a very confident team. As I’m typing this they just scored 2 in the 9th to take the lead over the Pirates. I would not be surprised at all if the Dodgers ended up 3rd in the division this year. Never thought I would say that even a few weeks ago.
Tommy Edman (wrist) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City during the weekend, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
“Edman is slated to play in a simulated game today Thursday to test his wrist in the field, and he’ll head back out on a rehab assignment if all goes well. The 29-year-old infielder is expected to remain in the minors for at least a week in what will be his third separate rehab stint of the year”.
I hope the Dodgers are not going to regret giving Will Smith a TEN year contract.
Wednesday scores
Oklahoma City 8, Round Rock 1
Arkansas 2, Tulsa 1
Lansing 3, Great Lakes 2
Rancho Cucamonga 4, Fresno 2
Diego Cartaya hit two home runs, including a grand slam that busted the game open in the seventh inning, lifting Oklahoma City over the Round Rock Express (Rangers). Cartaya also walked twice, reaching base in all four trips to the plate as the designated hitter. He has three home runs in his last three games.
Thursday schedule
4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Maddux Bruns) vs. Lansing (Kade Morris)
4:35 p.m.: Tulsa (Jackson Ferris) at Arkansas (Michael Morales)
5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Walker Buehler) vs. Round Rock (TBA)
6:30 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Hyun-Seok Jang) vs. Fresno (Ismael Luciano)
Double-A debut for Jackson Ferris, Low-A debut for Hyun-Seok Jang on Thursday night.
BS call that changed the game….
As relayed by MLB.com’s Juan Toribio, Roberts corrected himself this evening about Graterol’s injury, noting that the right-hander had suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain. A Grade 1 hamstring strain is the most mild form of strain, while a Grade 3 strain constitutes a complete tear of the hamstring. This is, of course, excellent news for Dodgers fans and Roberts went on to suggest that the club “remains hopeful” that the righty can return at some point this season.
Muncy (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City over the weekend, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
“Muncy will spend at least a week in Triple-A before returning to the Dodgers, putting his earliest possible return date sometime in mid-August. The slugging third baseman has been on the injured list since May 17 with a right oblique strain and only recently began making strides in his recovery after a chiropractor visit last week”.
Brutal game to watch. Kelly is pitching awful. You should never let a hitter slug three homers off of you.
happy for Barnes. one of his biggest critics. crow don’t taste that good, but i’ll eat it gladly!
does she ever breathe?? …. Lux still raking!
10:10 PM ET
Phillies (67-46)
Dodgers (66-48)
SP Tyler Phillips R
3-1 4.39 ERA
SP Gavin Stone R
9-5 3.63 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
LF T. Hernandez R
1B F. Freeman L
3B E. Hernandez R
2B Gavin Lux L
SS Miguel Rojas R
RF J. Heyward L
C A. Barnes R
CF K. Kiermaier L
The Dodgers reinstated Rojas (forearm) from the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
“Rojas landed on the injured list July 24 due to right forearm tightness, and he played in just one rehab game in Single-A, where he went 0-for-3 with a walk. Now that he’s healthy, the 35-year-old will likely start at shortstop until Mookie Betts (hand) is able to return from the IL. James Outman was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City in a corresponding move”.
They should leave Outman at Oklahoma City for the remainder of 2024.
The Diamondbacks are in the process of sweeping a doubleheader from the Guardians and move within 3 1/2 games of the Dodgers.
Yamamoto (triceps) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Tuesday, the Associated Press reports.
“The bullpen was Yamamoto’s second since landing on the injured list June 16. In his previous session, which took place Saturday, the right-hander threw 20 pitches, and he increased that count by 10 on Tuesday. Yamamoto is slated to toss another bullpen this week before pitching to live hitters next week. If he continues to build up without any setbacks, Yamamoto could return to the Dodgers’ rotation in late August or early September”.
Just my two cents here, but Shohei Ohtani is being paid a lot of money to be the MAN. But what I have noticed is that Shohei is not very clutch. When they need just a hit to get a run or two, it seems like he is always swinging for the fences. Last night was no exception. He was 0-4. With 2 on and 2 out in the 7th, he once again hit a harmless fly ball to an outfielder. I would much rather have Freeman or Hernandez up in a clutch situation where they need a run or two. The team was 0-8 with RISP.
Tuesday scores
Oklahoma City 5, Round Rock 3
Arkansas 2, Tulsa 0
Great Lakes 3, Lansing 2
Rancho Cucamonga 9, Fresno 3
Wednesday schedule
4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Patrick Copen) vs. Lansing (Mitch Myers)
4:35 p.m.: Tulsa (Chris Campos) at Arkansas (Juan Mercedes)
5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Jordan Lyles) vs. Round Rock (Peter Solomon)
6:30 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Luke Fox) vs. Fresno (Bryan Perez)
Landon Knack struck out eight in 5⅔ innings for the win in his second start back in Triple-A since getting optioned to Oklahoma City. He allowed three runs (one earned), with all the scoring coming on a pair of home runs by Round Rock center fielder Dustin Harris. Knack has struck out 31.3 percent of his batters faced in his last two starts in the minors.
Dalton Rushing was 1-for-5 in his Triple-A debut, and played all nine innings in left field. Shortstop Alex Freeland was 0-for-3 with a walk and scored a run in his Triple-A debut.
Rented mules are protesting today over how Roberts used Honeywell last night.
Clayton looked much better last night. only a couple of “hard” hit balls. his control is getting stronger. The biggest difference between having Paxton rather than Clayton is base on balls. James issues way too many passes. Clayton doesn’t have the speed James does, but his overall game is why he’s there and Paxton isn’t. Clayton still can make good hitters look silly! …. Nick Ahmed makes shortstop look easy! Same as Rojas. He won’t be out of work long. ….. Must be really frustrating for Outman to sit there and watch KevinK. playing. Wouldn’t he be better served to be in AAA? …. Mark, is Rushing being “rushed “ to the big club to play left field? …. Kiki’s hot streak didn’t last long. …… Saw some signs of Will swinging better. Boy do they need him to snap out of his slump!! …. Team looks different now without Gavin Lux in the lineup!!! Just saying. …. So sorry for Bazooka! Easiest 100 mph you’ll ever see. Bless you Brustar. …. Stone needs a big time start today. needs to help the bullpen get some rest. … Quietly Joe Kelly has been very good! …. Just win tonight guys, all’s well!
So, Betts is going to play SS as I predicted… he is just not going to hit leadoff. I like that better actually!
If Rojas is successful in returning, Nick Ahmed is the odd man out.
If/When Muncy returns, Outman is the odd man out, and when Edman returns, Kiermaier will retire.
This is the best lineup:
1. Ohtani DH (L)
2. Betts SS (R)
3. Freeman 1B (L)
4. Teoscar LF (R)
5. Muncy 3B (L)
6. Smith C (R)
7. Lux/Rosario 2B
8. Hernandez/Pages RF
9. Edman CF (B)
Clayton gave me some hope. He needs a couple of more starts. The Bazooka is gone for the season before he started. Grove will be back today and Brasier isn’t far behind him. I think we will see Jack Dreyer soon as well.
Can Stoney rebound?
Manager Dave Roberts told reporters before Tuesday’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies that when Mookie Betts returns he’ll play shortstop and bat second. Shohei Ohtani will continue to bat leadoff.
That’s a hell of a hamstring injury to Bazooka!
Clayton Kershaw has shown that he might be a factor.
We need to see more!
Jolly Jess! thank goodness nerdy nelson ain’t on!
For those who are interested in Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, here’s a link to a very good article on him at Fangraphs:
Open on blogs.fangraphs.comhttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-ballpark-roki-sasakis-market/