The Game Has Changed and Not For the Better

Earlier in the week I had a dialogue with MT and Bluto regarding the lack of confidence I have in RVS as a competent MLB Team Batting Coach.  I have no doubts that his methodology can and does work for some, but each batter is different and needs a different approach.  At least that is the way it used to be.  I concede that the LAD method of hitting is to teach plate discipline (another way of saying to work the count), swing as hard as you can with as much launch angle.  Strikeouts are unimportant.  OPS is what drives the offense, and OPS is driven by slugging percentage.  Plenty of hitters have a good OBP, but a lousy SLG and their OPS suffers, and they are considered marginal hitters.

I will never be convinced that RVS can adequately coach a TEAM on hitting, but I also concede that he will not be terminated as he does “coach” what the LAD Front Office espouses.  MT listed a slew of metrics showcasing his position that RVS is the right choice.  My response was that those metrics measured the talent far more than the coaching.  In my estimation the numbers are driven by outstanding talent against lesser pitchers, but when the playoffs come, those same batters are baffled by good pitching.  During the playoffs, MT was defending the pitchers highlighting that it was the lack of hitting that hurt the team.  I absolutely concurred.  The playoffs called for situational hitting that the TEAM was not able to perform, with the exclamation mark coming in the 7^th inning in Game 6 with the nobody out and runners on 2^nd and 3^rd.  Putting the bat on the ball and hitting to the right side probably gets the runner home and the second runner to 3^rd with one out.  Then the team would have been in a position to tie the score with another out.  Or a simple single score both.  What does happen?  Tyler Matzek strikes out Pujols, Souza, and Betts.  Inning over and for all practical purposes, series and season over. 

The metrics MT highlighted were certainly impressive, but as I opined they were more attuned to the talent.  If the coaching was helping, one might expect the metrics would be getting better.  However that is not the case. Last year the metrics were as follows:

Strikeouts – 13^th most

Batting Average – 11^th

OBP – 5^th

SLG – 7^th

OPS – 6^th

HR – 4^th

The team appears to be regressing. Where they were really good at was walks, where they were 2^nd.  A team with this much offensive power has the OBP up because they walk.  Showing excellent plate discipline.  No MT,  I am not advocating that the hitters should swing at bad pitches. But how many times did we complain about the number of pitches that were right down Broadway and the batter did not lift his bat off his shoulder.  The Atlanta hitters got a few excuse me hits with runners on base, and we call them lucky.  Or maybe they were not just as plate disciplined and chose to swing and try to do something offensively rather than walk.

Okay, time to get off my soapbox.  The dialogue got me to thinking.  With all of this golden information, one would assume that the hitting today is superior to those in prior decades.  I only go back to the 1958, so I got to thinking.  Where are todays Pete Rose, George Brett, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, Roberto Clemente, Stan Musial, Rod Carew, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Todd Helton, Vlad Guerrero Sr.  There would be no place for a hitter like Brett Butler today. Overall hitting has regressed over the last 21 years, fairly dramatically. 

BA – 2000 (.270) and 2021 (.244)

OBP – 2000 (.345) and 2021 (.317)                                                                                                            

SLG – 2000 (.437) and 2021 (.411)

OPS – 2000 (.782) and 2021 (.728)

It is not just one year deviation, but this has been a steady regression consistently over the years.  If this new way of looking at hitting is sooooooo much better, why are not the numbers supporting that claim?

Then I read Bear’s excellent post on why we became baseball fans.  I did not have a television set until 1965, so my only exposure was through my transistor radio and golden voice of Vin Scully.  It was a treat for me to ride my bike to department stores in Panorama City so I could watch All Star games and World Series. I got to see all of my baseball idols sometimes twice during the summer.  I was hooked, and I never left.

When I was “debating’ the plaudits of RVS with MT and Bluto, it got me to thinking that it isn’t RVS that I am upset about, it is the direction of the game.  It is no longer see ball hit ball (hit it where they aint), decisions made by smart baseball managers, pitchers used to pitching every 5^th day and pitching 300+ innings, batters not wearing armor and digging in on top of the plate, and yet not striking out 200 times a season (like Matt Chapman), pitchers not afraid to dust back hitters, pitchers knowing when to retaliate and how to properly retaliate, runners forcing the game by routinely stealing and taking the extra base, runners breaking up double plays, the number 2 in the lineup taking pitches to let the leadoff hitter steal second and then hitting behind the runner to get the runner to 3^rd with less than two outs (Junior Gilliam was an expert here)…I grew up loving the game from the 60’s and I very much miss that game. 

What has changed?  Two things in my opinion.  Money and technology.  Pitchers like Gerrit Cole are asking for and getting $324MM for 9 years.  And so that the team hurt their “investment”, Cole threw  all of 181.1 IP or $198,533 per IP.  Koufax and Drysdale held out one Spring for $100K annually.  Looking at Gerrit Cole, what would pitchers like Bob Gibson, Mickey Lolich, Juan Marichal, Whitey Ford, Steve Carlton demand today?  Who knows, because with that kind of investment, owners are going to be overly cautious with their pitchers’ arms.  How about our $300MM hitters like Mookie and Francisco Lindor?  Mookie is getting $30.4MM per season for 12 years, and Lindor is earning $34.1MM for 10 years.  Mookie had 123 hits or $247,154 per hit while Lindor had 104 hits or $327,885 per hit.  Even taking into consideration the one $300MM player who had a MVP type season, Bryce Harper, who earned $25.4MM per season with 151 hits or $168,110 per hit. 

I understand the changing finances that justify today’s salaries when fWAR is calculated (approximately $8MM per 1 WAR).  I understand the changing economics overall.  MLB is an entertainment industry, and their salaries pale in comparison to the top movie makers, recording artists, and NBA players. BUT I DO NOT HAVE TO LIKE IT.  The game has changed from the game I grew up with to the game that is played today, and the player investment is very much taken into consideration.

Technology has also changed the game.  It used to be Casey Stengel, Walter Alston, Tommy Lasorda, Billy Martin, Red Schoendienst, Sparky Anderson, Earl Weaver, Alvin Dark, Johnny Keane, Bill Rigney, Danny Murtaugh, Gene Mauch, Bobby Cox making decisions ON THE FIELD.  Now it is MIT Economics Phds running countless pages of data through computer algorithms that drive strategy and decisions.  It used to be one man was responsible for making the decision, now it is decision by committee, and countless numbers of non-baseball people.  Pretty soon we are going to have a wing at Cooperstown for the top nerds.

The stolen base is now considered a risk not worth taking, even though catchers are dropping to one knee to get the low strike. Trea Turner led the NL in stolen bases with 32. 32. I want to see Maury Wills, Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson, Davey Lopes, Tim Raines, Vince Coleman. The game was much more exciting with the threat of a stolen base by the base-stealing artists. The game has become much more sterile.

Shifts?  How many times can a pitcher go through the lineup?  Right hand hitter vs left hand hitter?  Change the lineup every game? Have to rest a player every 10 games so they can play in October?  But pay them $30MM per year?  Game clocks? Complain about the length of the game, but add more commercials between innings just to get more dollars. Strikeouts are no longer a negative.  I know many fans like instant replay.  I do not. Let the humans make the calls on the field.  Of course bad calls are going to be made. Are the plate umpires worse today than before or are we just seeing the mistakes on the television screen?  Might as well just play “The Show” video game. 

So in retrospect, I understand that the game has changed, and that the likes of RVS are now part of the new dynamic of MLB.  We are now having theoreticians in charge and not baseball people.  MLB is first and foremost a business (an oligopoly).  And business is driven by profit, and profit is driven by winning (usually).  So the nerds come up with these strategies to give the team the best shot at winning.  The Dodgers hire the most and best nerds and generally own the regular season.  However, they have not been as successful in playoffs.  Are those results due to poor nerd information or poor baseball execution.  Let the baseball players play.  Don’t stifle them with scenario driven strategy.  See ball/hit ball. Field ball/throw ball.

I will always love the Dodgers, but I acknowledge that my love for the game of baseball has waned. I am more than a bit nostalgic for the great game of the 60’s and 70’s.  Yes, I am the proverbial old man yelling at the screen for today’s players to get off my grass.