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The Fall of Clayton Kershaw

Since 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been Clayton Kershaw’s team. Excluding his rookie year of 2008, Clayton has NEVER had an ERA over 3.00 but once (3.03). His career ERA is 2.47. Until Monday, he had not pitched since early July this year due to injury, but this year his…

By Mark Timmons3 min readJump to 76 comments

Since 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been Clayton Kershaw’s team. Excluding his rookie year of 2008, Clayton has NEVER had an ERA over 3.00 but once (3.03). His career ERA is 2.47. Until Monday, he had not pitched since early July this year due to injury, but this year his ERA is 3.33. Those are pretty good stats, maybe even worthy of being a #2 starter on most teams. However, the 2021 Dodgers are not just any team.

Max Scherzer has a career ERA of 3.15, and while 3 years older than Clayton, is now the Dodgers’ ace. Actually, earlier in the season, Striker Buehler had surpassed Clayton as the Dodger’s ace, and recently, Julio Urias has moved ahead of Clayton on the Dodgers’ Ace Meter. If Trevor Buer were still pitching, Clayton would be the Dodgers #5 Starter.

On Opening Day, Clayton was the starter. That role is traditionally reserved for the “Ace” of the staff, although it could be argued that Striker Buehler and Trever Bauer (reigning Cy Young winner) should be ranked ahead of Clayton. The fact that Clayton and not Buehler or Bauer did not start should not be lost on us. Clayton still is a very good pitcher and his career ERA of 2.47 ranks him #1 in ERA for the modern ERA. The only one close is Jacob deGrom, but his prospects moving forward are not rosey.

What is not said by anyone close to the Dodgers is that Clayton Kershaw may need Tommy John Surgery. As I write this, I do not KNOW that, but there is certainly a lot of evidence that points to that:

  • Clayton missed two months with what the Dodgers said was “forearm tightness.” Forearm tightness is a presurser or an indication that one needs Tommy John.
  • During that time, Clayton and others also called it “elbow issues.”
  • Clayton has a boatload of innings on that left arm.
  • Clayton’s velocity is certainly down.

That evidence would not meet the threshold of “reasonable doubt” but in a civil court, I think it could sway you with a “preponderance of the evidence.” I think Clayton has a torn UCL and has nothing lose by pitching. I think he is trying to help win a second championship in any role needed. I think this is Clayton’s last season. It could end at any time if that UCL lets loose, but he is here for the present.

Clayton has three young children at home and a platform and the money to successfully run his charities. I think that right after the Dodgers win the World Series, Clayton will announce his retirement. He will retire as a Dodger. AJ Ellis recently said that “Clayton is a one-team pitcher.” Why not end that tenure as the Modern-Day ERA Leader?

As I said, I do not know any of this for sure, but this is what the evidence says. I am watching every start as if it is his last… it might be!

The Trevor Bauer Debacle

Count me in the camp that conventional wisdom is usually wrong and many (if not “most” or even “all”) national writers and bloggers do not know their rear-end from their face (Maybe there is s resemblance). Now, if the DA charges Bauer, that changes everything, but every day that passes makes it less likely that will happen. If Bauer is not charged, MLB has a huge problem. Many writers say that “Bauer has admitted….” I do not think they have a clue what the threshold for “evidence” might be.

If Trevor Bauer is not charged, I know that MLB can still suspend him, but this case is entirely different. Does MLB really want to get involved with what happens behind closed doors by consenting adults? Insofar as the facial damage to the woman accusing Bauer of beating her, she has accused him, but he has not admitted that he was the cause of those bruises. I am not arguing as to his guilt or innocence. I am saying that absent proof he beat the woman (not just an accusation) then there is no case. If the DA doesn’t charge him, Manfred will have a decision to make and it is clear to me that his decision-making ability is less than that of a chimp!

PHOTO CREDIT: LA DODGERS

Discussion (76)

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  1. dodgerrickSeptember 16, 2021

    1 game back with 15 left to play!

  2. Andrew Vincent ForteSeptember 16, 2021

    With the rainout in Atlanta today the Giants will now face Ian Anderson who will start Friday’s series opener at Oracle Park. Charlie Morton and Max Fried are scheduled to start the final two games of the series.

  3. Jeff DominiqueSeptember 17, 2021

    My last comment on Trevor Bauer. I never wanted LAD to sign him. So I am not emotionally attached to him as a Dodger. I know, I know, I know, I know that he does not have to have committed a crime to be suspended. I know that MLB only needs to find that he has violated the domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy to suspend him.

    I thought that I would go to the CBA to see if I could get a better understanding. It is all legalese (as you might expect). The agreement calls for the player to be on administrative (paid) leave while all of the investigations are ongoing. Even though the leave is with pay, the player has the right to appeal before a Grievance Arbitration Panel if he wants to. Bauer chose not to appeal, and while the Pasadena Police investigation was ongoing, IMO he would have had a difficult time prevailing. The Agreement does allow for the Commissioner to defer a penalty until the criminal or civil suit has been determined, but that would be administrative leave. At the conclusion of the legal proceedings, the Commissioner could exact a suspension and make it retroactive. There is no maximum or minimum length of the suspension, and it is at the discretion of the Commissioner. The Commissioner can refer the discipline to the Club but only after MLB’s investigation is concluded.

    The CBA defines sexual assault thusly; “Sexual assault refers to a range of behaviors, including a completed nonconsensual sex act, an attempted nonconsensual sex act, and/or nonconsensual sexual contact. Lack of consent is inferred when a person uses force, harassment, threat of force, threat of adverse personnel or disciplinary action, or other coercion, or when the victim is asleep, incapacitated, unconscious or legally incapable of consent.”

    I think here is where the Commissioner has some latitude, but the last “or legally incapable of consent” portion is what may be a defining issue. I am no attorney, and I never played one on TV, but my novice understanding is that the clause “when the victim is asleep, incapacitated, unconscious or legally incapable of consent” would coincide with the law’s intent. If the DA concludes that this did not happen, then how can MLB? Again, I acknowledge that Bauer does not have to be charged, and what the DA may or may not do is not binding for the Commissioner. Which brings another question, has the Commissioner deferred the penalty until the legal proceedings are complete? The Commissioner does need to advise the player if that is what they are doing, but I have not heard any commentary on that.

    People have brought up Mickey Callaway and Sam Dyson. Both acknowledged that they should have been suspended and have agreed to the evaluation and treatment program described in the agreement. As did Marcell Ozuna and Roberto Osuna. None of the prior players suspended under this Agreement appealed their suspension and accepted it. I doubt that Trevor Bauer will accept the suspension and treatment.

    Based upon my reading of the Agreement, I am guessing that the case currently sits at Section III C 2 a…

    “In certain cases, the Commissioner may decide that he is not in a position to impose discipline until the

    resolution of a criminal or legal proceeding, but that allowing the Player to play during the pendency of

    the criminal or legal proceeding would result in substantial and irreparable harm to either the Club or

    Major League Baseball. In such exceptional cases the Commissioner may suspend the Player with pay

    pending resolution of the criminal or legal proceeding (or until the Commissioner determines that he

    has just cause to impose an unpaid, disciplinary suspension).”

    Unless there is change in the new CBA language, my new guess is that the Commissioner will suspend Bauer at least for 2022, but that Bauer will appeal to the Arbitration Panel saying that it was all consensual. I am also guessing that since the burden of proof is on MLB, they are going to need more than he said she said to convince the Arbitration Panel. It has never gone this far, so there is no precedent.

    To me, that is why this case is interesting, and admittedly has got my attention. It is the process and not the act that has my interest piqued.

    For those of you who are interested, below is the CBA, and the pertinent section is Attachment 52, CBA pages 308-227.

    Open on d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.comhttps://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf

    I would still like an attorney’s view of the Attachment, and an answer to whether there is a delay in the DA’s actions or if this is normal period of time to make a decision.

    Okay I am done with this. If Trevor Bauer never throws another pitch, I will not lose any sleep.

  4. BulldogsandPenguinsSeptember 17, 2021

    Wow, the baseball gods must be pulling for us with the rain. It could be that game never gets made up if it doesn’t have any bearing on the final standings. Rested bullpen for Atlanta. Hopefully Joc will bring his bat.

    The Dodgers just need to keep up their roll and things should take care of themselves. I don’t want to see us in a tiebreaker game, then have to play a wild card game afterwards. What a horrible disadvantage. How do the powers that be make such stupid decisions without looking forward and analysing all possibilities?

    I’m not too happy about having back to back day games during the Reds series either. Saturday’s game was originally scheduled as a night game. Go figure we get screwed some more.

    Nobody knows crap about the Bauer situation and what the Dodgers will or won’t do. I’ll say this, AF isn’t going to give him away for nothing. Kasten was already dismissive when commenting about him. You all read too many tabloids and need to work on identifying fact from fiction.

    In case you haven’t noticed, but the sportswriters today are all in the same journalism class where their sources are all “multiple anonymous sources”. No one does any verification or fact checking. To say that “Two anonymous sources who aren’t players or coaches, but are familiar with the inner working of the clubhouse say that “most” players don’t want him back”. That statement has more red flags than Tiananmen Square. Let me list them…

    Anonymous – Won’t list the name because they don’t matter. Not a coach, not a player. Is he the jockstrap washer?

    Aren’t players – Can’t get a single player to confirm, that’s pretty lazy

    Aren’t coaches – See above

    Familiar with the inner workings of the clubhouse – If you aren’t a player or on the coaching staff, you aren’t that familiar.

    Most players don’t want him back – Did they take a survey? Did they actually hear 15 players (26 man roster, plus IL, plus taxi squad) say that? I call shenanigans.

    This is a non-story and the ONLY story that makes this claim. Every other writer is just regurgitating their own opinion.

    Did anybody do any kind of analysis to see…

    If any other players that were banned under the same rule get blackballed from baseball for life?

    How many players that received suspensions went back to their team?

    How many were on expired contracts?

    I haven’t seen anyone write an article with those important points.

    So far the longest suspension was one year. The player was in a long term relationship with his girlfriend and physically and emotional abused her repeatedly where she was basically a captive. He got 1 year. Are you all telling me that having rough sex twice is equivalent to that? Aroldis fired six rounds from a gun after already getting physical with his significant other during a blow out, shit show of a fight. Bauer worse than that?

    People assume the Dodgers passed on Aroldis because of his character. But, no one really knows this. The facts are the Dodgers were in dire need of a closer and they had no idea how long the suspension would be. It makes sense that they passed on him for that reason. There are no facts either way.

    I’ll stand by what I said earlier. If the Dodgers think they’re gonna contend next year, they’re gonna do what they think will get them the most wins. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise. In fact, the only statements I’ve seen the Dodgers make was Kasten’s joke and AF giving a very canned line that the Dodgers stand behind the player until all the facts come out.

    So far, a judge made a ruling and made a statement saying, paraphrased that Bauer did what was asked and stopped when asked. Coming from a liberal, female Los Angeles judge is a very strong statement.

    Twitter is fantasy land. It is not representative of the fan base and the sportswriters are all a big part of the twittersphere. I don’t care about their opinions any more that I care about yours when they get 80% of all trade and free agent predictions wrong.

    I saw guys wearing Bauer Jersey’s in the stands after the incident. If there was the backlash that the sportswriters are claiming, this wouldn’t happen.

    Who knows, maybe Bauer and his agent request a trade because he wants to start over somewhere else. Maybe he wants to stay. Maybe AF wants to trade him, maybe Kasten won’t let him. Maybe the Guggenheims override everyone and make the final call. He’s a Cy Young winner in the prime of his career and was arguable one of the best pitchers in the league up until this happened.

    A lot of people will lose steam over the offseason and forget about this. That’s the reason why everyone involved agreed to his PAID suspension until the end of the year and the postseason. If Bauer thought he was gonna get screwed, I doubt he would agree to this.

    Everyone has an opinion, but I don’t see anyone putting any kind of reasoning behind it, doing any kind of analysis, showing precedence, or having inside information. You’re just repeating what some sportswriter wants you to think.

  5. MushersPopSeptember 17, 2021

    Aren’t players – Can’t get a single player to confirm, that’s pretty lazy;

    do you really think a player would go on record?

    The facts are the Dodgers were in dire need of a closer;

    they had Jansen. They were not desperate. They may have walked away because they didn’t know the suspension time but they were not desperate for a closer.

  6. MushersPopSeptember 17, 2021

    Aren’t players – Can’t get a single player to confirm, that’s pretty lazy; do you really think a player would go on record? The facts are the Dodgers were in dire need of a closer; they had Jansen. They were not desperate. They may have walked away because they didn’t know the suspension time but they were not desperate for a closer.

  7. BearSeptember 17, 2021

    Over the years, some players have openly complained about others. Most notable was Don Sutton’s blast at Garvey that ignited a club house fight. He was openly critical of Garvey’s self promotion and claimed the real MVP of the team was Reggie Smith. Jeff Kent was none to nice about how he felt about Matt Kemps work habits when Kemp first came up. There have been other less publicized beefs. But quite a few players went on record about Yasiel. Not so out in the open were complaints about Hanley Ramirez when he was there. He was not considered a great team mate. And when he was there, there were some cliques in the Dodger clubhouse. I think the uncertainty about Chapman’s possible suspension affected the trade.

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