The Fall of Clayton Kershaw
Since 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been Clayton Kershaw’s team. Excluding his rookie year of 2008, Clayton has NEVER had an ERA over 3.00 but once (3.03). His career ERA is 2.47. Until Monday, he had not pitched since early July this year due to injury, but this year his…
Since 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been Clayton Kershaw’s team. Excluding his rookie year of 2008, Clayton has NEVER had an ERA over 3.00 but once (3.03). His career ERA is 2.47. Until Monday, he had not pitched since early July this year due to injury, but this year his ERA is 3.33. Those are pretty good stats, maybe even worthy of being a #2 starter on most teams. However, the 2021 Dodgers are not just any team.
Max Scherzer has a career ERA of 3.15, and while 3 years older than Clayton, is now the Dodgers’ ace. Actually, earlier in the season, Striker Buehler had surpassed Clayton as the Dodger’s ace, and recently, Julio Urias has moved ahead of Clayton on the Dodgers’ Ace Meter. If Trevor Buer were still pitching, Clayton would be the Dodgers #5 Starter.
On Opening Day, Clayton was the starter. That role is traditionally reserved for the “Ace” of the staff, although it could be argued that Striker Buehler and Trever Bauer (reigning Cy Young winner) should be ranked ahead of Clayton. The fact that Clayton and not Buehler or Bauer did not start should not be lost on us. Clayton still is a very good pitcher and his career ERA of 2.47 ranks him #1 in ERA for the modern ERA. The only one close is Jacob deGrom, but his prospects moving forward are not rosey.
What is not said by anyone close to the Dodgers is that Clayton Kershaw may need Tommy John Surgery. As I write this, I do not KNOW that, but there is certainly a lot of evidence that points to that:
- Clayton missed two months with what the Dodgers said was “forearm tightness.” Forearm tightness is a presurser or an indication that one needs Tommy John.
- During that time, Clayton and others also called it “elbow issues.”
- Clayton has a boatload of innings on that left arm.
- Clayton’s velocity is certainly down.
That evidence would not meet the threshold of “reasonable doubt” but in a civil court, I think it could sway you with a “preponderance of the evidence.” I think Clayton has a torn UCL and has nothing lose by pitching. I think he is trying to help win a second championship in any role needed. I think this is Clayton’s last season. It could end at any time if that UCL lets loose, but he is here for the present.
Clayton has three young children at home and a platform and the money to successfully run his charities. I think that right after the Dodgers win the World Series, Clayton will announce his retirement. He will retire as a Dodger. AJ Ellis recently said that “Clayton is a one-team pitcher.” Why not end that tenure as the Modern-Day ERA Leader?
As I said, I do not know any of this for sure, but this is what the evidence says. I am watching every start as if it is his last… it might be!
The Trevor Bauer Debacle
Count me in the camp that conventional wisdom is usually wrong and many (if not “most” or even “all”) national writers and bloggers do not know their rear-end from their face (Maybe there is s resemblance). Now, if the DA charges Bauer, that changes everything, but every day that passes makes it less likely that will happen. If Bauer is not charged, MLB has a huge problem. Many writers say that “Bauer has admitted….” I do not think they have a clue what the threshold for “evidence” might be.
If Trevor Bauer is not charged, I know that MLB can still suspend him, but this case is entirely different. Does MLB really want to get involved with what happens behind closed doors by consenting adults? Insofar as the facial damage to the woman accusing Bauer of beating her, she has accused him, but he has not admitted that he was the cause of those bruises. I am not arguing as to his guilt or innocence. I am saying that absent proof he beat the woman (not just an accusation) then there is no case. If the DA doesn’t charge him, Manfred will have a decision to make and it is clear to me that his decision-making ability is less than that of a chimp!
PHOTO CREDIT: LA DODGERS
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Discussion (76)
Disagree, not disagreeable
CK has certainly not been ” The Man” for a few years. At least last season he was able to exorcise his post season demons by posting a 4-1 record in the playoffs. Including 2 wins in the World Series. His last ERA title was in 2017. His record over the last 4 years is a pretty decent 40-14. But those are not the numbers of an Ace. Pretty interesting story in MLBTR this morning about Chris Taylor and how he could command a 5 year 80 million dollar deal. They compare him to Ben Zobrist. But Zobrist was 35 when he signed that 56 million dollar deal with the Cubs, Chris is 31 right now. Zobrist also was not as versatile as Taylor. It was great to pick up a game on the Giants finally. I watched the end of their game, and I will say this, there is no give up on that team. They fought right up until the last out. They hit 4 solo homers and still lost by 3. Pagan’s outing was both hard to watch and impressive. He walked the first two hitters and then got the next 3. He also threw more balls than strikes. Congrats to Julio on his 18th win, Not a great pitched game, but good enough. HR bug has bit Bickford. Lets hope he finds his sea legs again before the playoffs. Going to meet up with Ted for lunch today. He is visiting a friend in our little corner of the world.
True, so true Mark. You barrelled this one. Short, but sweet like a liner off Will Smith’s bat. Clayton is one of our all time greats. I would hate to see him retire at such a young age especially when we’re seeing Mad Max do his thing at 37 years young. Clayton has been compared to the great Sandy Koufax his entire career, I guess it’s only fitting that he hang ’em up a little early.
The Bauer situation feels a hell of a lot more like political theater, than justice. More like a cross between the “Me too” movement and Manfred’s personal grudge payback from constantly calling him out on his stupid decisions. People are so blinded by politics these days they don’t care for right and wrong or justice. The sportswriters all jumped the gun and declared man guilty, women victim without considering the facts. I’ll always remember my wife calling this situation extortion as soon as the news broke. She’s often right about this sort of thing.
The Padres won a game! There’s hope as we pull within one and a half. Can the Padres make it two in a row?
Urias was good enough last night. Good enough to get the W. Good enough to keep his ERA below 3. Bickford is getting bit by the home run bug lately and Vesia is a freaking stud! Kelly got his guy, and Treinen was wild, but dirty. Kenley made a statement by striking out the bottom of the order in order. To say the pitching on this team is great is an understatement.
The bats did enough to get the job done. 5 runs just about guarantees a victory with this team. I freaked out a little bit when JT he that humpback liner off the end of the bat! Don’t break Tio’s magic bat!!! I think they hide that stick from Belli so he doesn’t cancel out the good in it.
Trea Turner is freaking fast! That RBI infield hit was fun to watch. I still don’t understand why he and Mookie don’t bat back to back. They’re way too stuck on the lefty righty thing.
I love seeing Gavin Lux do his thing. Just stick to that line drive swing and take what they give you! Belli is still chipping in with a hit here, a walk there and great defense everywhere in the outfield. The team is really coming together at the right time. Who said they can’t just flip the switch?
Best of all, the D has been solid. It’s really hard to beat this team when they don’t give anything away.
It was a perfect time to sweep a perfect home stand against two division rivals. Now, we go back out on the road for three series with bookend off days and another after the Reds series. C’mon Padres. You help us and we’ll help you by smashing the Reds!
Whoever made the schedule this year needs to be fired. How the hell do the Padres and Giants play more than half of their games against each other over the last 20 games of the season? And how the hell to the Dodgers play out of division on the last series of the year? I hope that doesn’t happen again for a long time.
In case nobody noticed or cares, there’s a three way tie for the American League Wild Card(s). The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox all knotted up 8 games behind the division leading Rays. The National League has three teams within a game and half of the second Wild Card. What a wild finish to a wild season!
Lost in all the excitement was Julio Urias starting and winning on a night where we honored another great Mexican Left Hander, Fernando Valenzuela. As there are a lot of similarities between another pair of lefties in Kershaw and Koufax, Urias and Valenzuela should be linked together in the same manner. Urias and Valenzuela share the same cool demeanor on the hill and both had great breaking balls. They both handled the bat and fielded their positions extremely well for a pitcher. Both started their careers in Dodger Blue as teenagers at the ripe old age of 19 years.
Congratulation Julio on becoming the first 18 game winner on a special night dedicated to another Dodger great and fellow countryman.
On another note, how about the great catch Henry Ramos made on Mookie’s drive to left? I thought a few years ago when he was in spring with the Dodgers, that they should have kept him on the roster. He popped a couple of long homers in spring and looked very good in the outfield. But that was 2017, Bellinger’s rookie season. Gausman pitching for the Giants today against Pierce Johnson. Padres own 2 HR’s against Gausman this year, Marisnick and Tatis. Giants have none against Johnson. Giants stay home to play the Braves. Then they go on the road to San Diego and Colorado, before 3 with the D-Backs and finishing with SD. Dodgers weekend series with the Reds features, Buehler-Castillo, Scherzer-Gray, Kershaw-Miley.
Yes.amazing catch by Ramos on Mookie. One of the best catches all year. I feared it could change the game right there. Good thing the Dodgers held on for the W.
Lets go Padres today. Gausman still has a very good era of 2.65 but he has been vulnerable for a few weeks now. Hopefully the Friars can beat them again.
Tough series coming up for the Dodgers in Cincy. They are fighting for their playoff lifes just like the Padres.
Good to see Lux keep hitting and reaching base. Nice shot in the arm from left field.
Keep it up, kid!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!
Muncy has a bruised knee from his ill conceived steal attempt of 2nd base. He will be back in the lineup on Friday. When those idiots ran out on the field last night, they were protesting the relocation of the people who lived in the Chavez Ravine area before Dodger Stadium was built. Little late in the game to voice that objection. And that was on the City of Los Angeles, and Mayor Poulson. Not the Dodgers. LA ceded the land to them. Lots of protest on Twitter today about the way security took them down. Also some video’s there since the Dodger broadcasts refuse to give those people air time. Rengifo in trouble in his native Venezuela. A warrant for his arrest has been issued. Allegedly he and his family forged papers to sell a property that was jointly owned by him and his exe wife. A violation of Venezuelan law. His father has already been arrested. He is the lawyer who forged the documents….
If Bauer is not charged, Manfred has another huge can of worms on his plate. Ozuna, who had a situation close to Bauer’s, but for domestic violence, has not been charged, but had to enter a program for that kind of behavior. Still remains to be seen how that will all play out.
Reds aren’t playing particularly well. Lost 4, 3-7. San Diego, as bad as they’ve looked, are still in the playoff picture. At the moment, St Louis is the team that looks like they want it.
As it stands the second Wild Card team is 17 games behind and a strike three called on a pitch 4” outside could move them into the Divisional Series. Yes, it is what it is. But it’s also not right. We will hear a lot more about this going forward.
CK22 is certainly not the same as before but it is very good, you just have to put it in the right place, as No.4 facing guys with 4.00 ERA or more, it would be almost a game won every time he pitched. I think the Dodgers should sign him to one-year contracts from now until Clayton wants to play, respect.
* So we’re 1.5 back. I still think we’ll win the Division. Our pitching has carried up and now the line up is missing only AJ and Lux is filling in nicely. Who wants to face our line up?
* How fundamentally bad are the D-Backs? I typically don’t criticize MLB teams much. But the D-Backs are an exception for me after watching them fail to execute basic stuff all series. You don’t have to be that talented to play the game the right way.
* I was wondering how Ramos stayed in the minors for 11 years. Who does that? He had a nice RBI base hit in the 4th and made a great catch in left. Then I watched him throw 15 feet wide of 3rd on Will’s base hit to try to get JT, allowed Will to go to 2nd. Now it makes more sense.
* Then there was Merrill Kelly’s 3 attempted bunts in the 5th. Do the D-Backs actually coach pitchers, like Kelly, how to bunt? What a pitiful effort. That effort in a 1 run game. If you wrote a book on how not to execute the fundamentals of bunting, he would be the example. Brutal.
* Bellinger’s swing looks better. He doesn’t do it every time yet, but you can see a concerted effort to keep his posture and not collapse his head, eyes and spine. We used to call that “staying stacked”. Even if you stand tall, like Belli, you don’t collapse the head and spine angle. You keep your posture and stay balanced. Your hands take the bat to the pitch, low or high. The long, upper-cut swing is hopefully gone with a shorter path to the baseball. Remember the tree chopping video some time back? I like it and i should produce better contact.
* The Home Plate Umpire, Erich Bacchus, did a nice job. He uses more of the old American League style, setting up over the catchers head versus Alan Porter, who sets up with the standard inside position. I would think setting up over the catcher’s head gives a better view of both corners. But that spot directly over the catcher’s head supposedly creates more hits by foul balls.
* It was interesting the other night when Orel was talking about Max using Albert’s bat. He mentioned that Alberts wood was going to be the best and not available to just every player. Max typically uses a birch MaxBat that are beautiful in my opinion. A piece of furniture. But Albert’s Marucci Pro Maple has to be perfect in specs and the best maple they can find. You’re not shipping any crap to a HOF’er.
* I knew TT was fast but damn. I timed TT to 1st base last night just for the hell of it, 3 times actually, as I didn’t believe my watch. It was 3.61 from the right side. I know his swing on the pitch helped him out of the box, but 3.6? That’s unbelievable
A welcome day off before the home stretch today.
Rooting for an opponent to lose is like hoping a spelling bee competitor will misspell a word. You just need to keep plugging along and eventually if it’s meant to be it will happen.
Even though it was one game, last night’s gain feels important, as now SF is only a two-game slip-up away from losing hold on a division they probably feel like is there’s for the taking.
The significance of winning the division is everything right now. I’d be managing this team like second place doesn’t even get you in. Of course guys need rest; that’s not the point. But we have to treat this last two weeks as if they are our playoffs.
It’s a two-step process: just keep winning and wait for the other guy to flinch.
News from Internet
Spoiler:
Love this from Goldstein:
Appa Yip Yip: If you took the Dodgers team as currently constituted and dropped them into the 1970s how many games would they win in a season?
Kevin Goldstein: 130?
Baseball America previews the next International Signing period. ($$$) https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2021-22-mlb-international-prospects-big-board/
Dodgers are not associated yet with anyone, but it’s good to get a grasp on names and trends.
Blast from the past, via Future Dodgers:
Yadier Alvarez, who was DFA’d in February 2020 and pitched just 3.2 innings in 2019, began a rehab assignment tonight in Arizona. He struck out the side in a 1-2-3 first inning.
FB at 97, according to someone.
Also in Arizona is Jhan Zambrano, acquired from the Rangers for Josh Sborz, he’s working out starting for ACL Dodgers tonight.
Baseball America’s Emily Waldron recently noted:
Gavin Stone just hit 98 MPH for @greatlakesloons. First time he’s touched that high since arriving in High-A. Across his past 4 starts for Great Lakes:
17.0 IP, 10 hits, 5 walks, 29 Ks, 1.59 ERA
Since July 26:
28.2 IP, 18 H, 5 R (3 ER), 20 K, 9 BB
BEN CLEMENS CHAT
Joe: What are the Giants’ odds against the Dodgers in the NLDS of the Giants win the west? 55% favored?
Ben Clemens: Sadly not. The Dodgers will be favored… And I don’ think it matters who wins the West (contingent on whichever team it is winning the WC game)
Like, the starting pitching matters a LITTLE
But the Dodgers are a much better team by the projections, and I think that’s reasonable
Appa Yip Yip: Which wild card contenders do you think would make the deepest post-season run AL/NL?
Ben Clemens: Dodgers
Matt Zach: Which upcoming SS FA are the yankees most likely to go out and get? what skills would they prioritize?
Ben Clemens: Carlos Correa
I think they will prioritize the skills of being either Carlos Correa or Corey Seager
But I think Seager is gonna stay in LA most likely and I also like Correa’s profile a bit better
Farhandrew Zaidman: Glasnow to the Dodgers for some package of McKinstry/Andre Jackson in the off-season, who says no? Dodgers will cover the arb cost and Rays get two major league ready players.
Ben Clemens: I think the Rays say no here. They don’t need more 25-year-old marginal major leaguers who will clog up their 40-man
Sorry, McKinstry is 26
It’s just the wrong kind of thing for Tampa Bay to be trading for, and obviously the Dodgers would snap accept if that was offered
Dodgers get a mention in this FanGraphs article on International scouting:
Open on blogs.fangraphs.comhttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-international-scouting/Several Dodger prospects are named in this annual survey of minor leaguers with the best tools ($$$)
Open on www.baseballamerica.comhttps://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2021-minor-league-prospects-with-the-best-scouting-tools/I won’t list all, but an appetizing portion includes:
Best batting prospect for ALL of High-A Central: Ryan Ward, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
Best breaking ball for ALL of Low-A West: Carlos Duran, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers)
Best defensive OF for ALL of Double-A Central: Donovan Casey, Tulsa (Dodgers)
Most exciting player for High-A Central: Andy Pages, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
In all fourteen (14) Dodger prospects were cited.
Since being promoted to Rancho Cucamonga, 18-year-old Yeiner Fernandez is hitting .625 with 3 RBIs. He put on a hitting display in the ACL and you can check out his talent at the plate
KEVIN GOLDSTEIN CHAT
Erik: Gabe Kapler thriving in San Francisco immediately after bombing in Philadelphia continues to confuse me. Did he suddenly become a far better manager, or was he always a great manager and the support system is so bad in Philly that he still failed?
Kevin Goldstein: Not really. SO many managers looked bad in their first go-around and used the lessons learned to become really good managers. See Joe Torre with the Mets or AJ Hinch with Arizona.
Jefferson: It’s going to be a shame that one of LAD/SFG has to deal with a single elimination wild card game. If you are running those teams, are you pushing 110% for the division until the very last day? Or maybe hedge your bets a bit and lineup a well-rested starter for a WC game?
Kevin Goldstein: Division all the way. Compared to winning the division, earning a wild card spot basically cuts your World Series probability in half.
DJ: Are there any specific organizations you look at currently and think they are likely onto something ahead of the rest of the industry?
Kevin Goldstein: Plenty. Giants, Dodgers, Rays, Yankees, Brewers come to mind, but there are more.
Guest: please rank: ET, Close Encounters, Captain Marvel, Alien, Contact, Gremlins 2
Kevin Goldstein: Close Encounters and Gremlins 2 the real standouts here. ET is not good, Contact is ok, I haven’t seen Captain Marvel or any comic book movie.
Tal: What do you see the Dodgers doing with Cody Bellinger this offseason? Do they still feel like it’s reasonable to view him as a core piece (or a significant piece at all) going forward?
Kevin Goldstein: Such a tough question for them. He just can’t get to velocity at all. I think you start him in 2022 but have a short leash and a solid backup plan.
Appa Yip Yip: If you took the Dodgers team as currently constituted and dropped them into the 1970s how many games would they win in a season?
Kevin Goldstein: 130?
Nate: I know indicated you think Correa is the best fit for the Yanks, and it’s hard to argue just because he’d be a great fit anywhere. But wouldn’t Seager arguably be more desirable just as a similarly talented LH bat though? Or given Hal’s inclination to hover around the luxury tax (Cole signing aside), wouldn’t it make sense to try for a guy more like Simmons/Didi (or similar) and splurge on more pitching? Not a wrong answer I guess, just a random thought I’ve had
Kevin Goldstein: You’re not wrong, I just think Seager stays in LA in the end.
Tom: KG – You don’t think Bauer will EVER pitch again?
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t THINK so. I think it’s the most likely outcome, but not an absolute one.
Baseball America updated their top 100 again. ($$$)
Open on www.baseballamerica.comhttps://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2021-top-100-prospects/The Dodgers now that 6 players (that’s 6%!) With Andy Pages adding his name to the 5 that were there last update.
The early returns on two 2021 draft picks are quite good.
On the season at Low-A
Nastrini: 21 Ks in 9.1 IP
Sheehan: 27 Ks in 13 IP
Both recently threw 3+ scoreless innings with 6+ strikeouts for Rancho.
Well, that’s quite a leap, Mark. Who knows? Maybe you’re right and it’s a UCL. Then again. Not like we haven’t seen tightness and elbow issues before and they don’t always lead to surgeries. It was reported just recently that Clayton Kershaw still feels the competitive fire and wants to continue playing.
Most of the speculation I’ve read about Trevor Bauer indicates he will not play for the Dodgers again and there seems little doubt that he will receive a lengthy suspension. If I’m the Dodgers, I don’t want him back. Been reports the other players don’t want him back. You’re trying to win a second World Series and this guy is out doing something that is pretty edgy, somewhat crazy and off the wall. Hey, what could go wrong?
The police have finished their investigation. It’s in the DA’s office. Up to them to decide whether to press charges or not.
Padres ahead in the secound inning 1-0.
Padres up 4-0 in the 5th.
Met Ted for lunch at Mugs a small coffee shop here in Canon. We had a great visit and talked about a lot of things. Gave him a Kershaw and a AJ Ellis bobbleheads.
Bauer is judged, for the people, as if he were a normal guy and that is a mistake, anyone who feels pleasure, fun or excitement for a sexual behavior of that type, even if it is consensual, is not right of their mental faculties, this also includes women We know that if she has them, it seems that she is a member of Alcoholic Anonymous.
Then as everyone speculates I will too:
1 the Dodgers as a class organization will try to help Bauer with some therapy or psychological treatment, they will not leave him alone, he won’t give it up, the guy is sick and the Dodgers will support him.
2 they will try to cancel the contract and let Bauer look for other opportunities
I knew it, today LA one game behind, Musgrove is an asshole, but not one of those who give up, he is their best pitcher, and with high spirits, SD is going to fight until the last day, which hurts for those idiots who will not reach them, Cardinals will be the second wild card
Giants have scored their first run on a wild pitch. They have men on 1st and 2nd.
4-2 Padres top of the 8th.
I’m not sure how many times CK has to say he has no intention of retiring. His injuries may be a precursor to a UCL injury in the future but I recall CK saying how relieved he was at the results of his forearm exam. He throws more sliders than anyone these days. He may have just had the injury that was reported and nothing more.
I see CK breaking Sutton’s K record. I see CK crossing 3000 K’s as a Dodger. It would be nice if he was around long enough to break Sutton’s W record too.
I agree with Bluto. A 90% chance of Bauer being suspended seems correct to me. I think he gets a year with no charges. More if he’s charged. I tend to think he won’t be charged in criminal court. The photos. The woman saying he went too far and waking up to being rear ended will be enough for Manfred.
Quite frankly, I think the Dodgers are hoping for a long suspension so they can put his money toward Scherzer and CK. I think they will take a run at Seager too if Bauer’s money is off the books.
Padres score 3 in the 8th. 7-2 the score.
The story in MLBTR concerning what kind of contract Taylor might get this winter is very interesting. They feel he could get 5 years in the 80 million dollar range.
Pads showing some spine! It’s ours for the taking now! Bring the big boy bats tomorrow! Wouldn’t it be something if Lux continues to lead the charge!
Sigh of relief. Padres playing for their life and they pulled it out
Momentum is in our court and now we have to take advantage of it
Pressure is all on the hated ones now