The Dominos are Ready to Fall
Speculation is rampant. The rumors are swirling. For baseball writers, “breaking a story” is a badge of honor and akin to winning the Writers’ World Series, so sometimes they see a story… even when there is none. So far, no significant deals or signings have occurred unless the…
Speculation is rampant. The rumors are swirling. For baseball writers, “breaking a story” is a badge of honor and akin to winning the Writers’ World Series, so sometimes they see a story… even when there is none. So far, no significant deals or signings have occurred unless the Braves trade for Kelnick, Gonzalez, and White seems like it is a blockbuster (it isn’t) or Wade Miley signing is a revelation. All is quiet, but the teams in on Ohtani also have a Plan B… so we wait!
It would seem that Ohtani is that first domino and we are all waiting for it to fall. The Dodgers have the deepest pockets and are expected by many to sign Shohei Ohtani, but we also need to remember that the Dodgers’ principal ownership group is Guggenheim, and they represent hundreds of thousands… maybe even millions (I have no clue) of investors. Investors demand a return as well as dividends. It would appear that the Dodgers are poised to go over the Luxury Tax Threshold again in 2024 for the fourth time in a row. The penalty will be steep next year, but in the fifth year, it will go up even more.
If the Dodgers do sign Ohtani and go in big on a couple of starters and all the trimmings, it is a signal to me that they are likely to sell the team in the next two to three years! Guggenheim, led by Mark Walter, bought the Dodgers for an insane $2.1 Billion Dollars. I could see them selling the team for $8 Billion! That’s right – EIGHT BILLION! They may love baseball, but this is a business, and businesses are made to be sold, and every business person knows that. So… we wait…. and wait…
We did learn that Mookie Betts is allegedly going to be the Dodgers’ starting second baseman in 2024. I think that is a good move, as it takes miles a game off of his legs. Playing 100% of the time in the infield will energize and engage Mookie to make him even better! I think it is a great move. I will have to be sold on Gavin Lux… and I am open to it, but I am from Missouri, and he is going to have to “show me” that he is a short stop! I remain skeptical…
JDM wants to be a Dodger for a year or two more, and so he is waiting in the wings in case the Dodgers do not sign Ohtani. There are so many options… Why is everyone convinced that Ohtani will pitch again in 2025, and then the same people say, “We can’t be certain that Walker Buehler will come back?” They both had torn UCLs. It was the second time for both. Why do many “assume” that Ohtani will be back on the mound and yet unsure of Buehler? It’s wishful thinking! A second torn UCL recovery is a crapshoot! There are no guarantees. We have to wait and see!
At worst, Ohtani and Buehler will never pitch again. At best, they may pitch for another three to five years! This is just the beginning. When will that BIG Domino fall? I am headed to Lost Wages… I mean Las Vegas this afternoon. I will be in the air for four hours, but otherwise, I will be available. Breaking news is likely! The LA Times said it best:
The stove should be turned all the way up this week. Ohtani is a transcendent, unparalleled two-way, two-time MVP on the cusp of signing the richest contract in North American sports history. He is the most marketable talent in the sport. His decision could shift the league’s landscape.
— Jorge Castillo, The LA Times
But nobody on the outside — not even the teams trying to lure him — has a clue where Ohtani is signing. Nobody knows, for sure, what Ohtani’s demands or priorities are. Nobody knows, for sure, which teams interest Ohtani. Nobody knows which clubs, if any, have met with Ohtani yet.
The Dodgers, Angels, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants are among the potential landing spots. His price could be anywhere between $500 million and $600 million. But if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen, they’re probably lying. Speculation is thick on thin information. The stove is light on gas.
That’s by design. Ohtani, 29, has always been shrouded in secrecy as a public figure. But the secrecy has risen to another, strange level in recent months.
Ohtani, who only speaks to reporters during the season on days he pitches, hasn’t spoken to the media since Aug. 9.
Two weeks later, he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, ending his season as a pitcher. He chose to continue hitting through Sept. 3 until sustaining an oblique strain. The next day, Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, held an unusual news conference with reporters and declined to specify what was wrong with Ohtani’s elbow.
Ohtani then underwent surgery on his elbow Sept. 19. In a peculiar twist, the Angels released a statement through his agency CAA announcing the development, but the type of procedure was missing. It was later reported by The Times’ Dylan Hernández that Ohtani had undergone what everyone assumed: Tommy John surgery.
Last month, Ohtani’s scheduled conference call with reporters after being named American League MVP was mysteriously canceled. National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., meanwhile, hopped on a call with the media while in uniform before a game in the Venezuelan winter league.
Coincidentally, Ohtani and Balelo have been very protective of the free-agent process — just as they were when Ohtani came over from Japan and chose a club in December 2017. ESPN recently reported that Ohtani’s camp warned clubs that any media leaks would be held against them. Developments, as a result, have been limited because teams are afraid of angering him.
Does that sound like a guy you want on your team? Not to me…
Parting Shots
- I look for defensive improvement from Max Muncy in his second year at 3B. With Mookie and Freddie entrenched at 2B and 1B respectively, he can hone his skills at 3B, knowing that is his only option. He will never be Brooks Robinson, but he might be above average. At least he was not horrible in 2023.
- Who will Jonny DeLuca be the platoon partner for? Jason Heyward or James Outman? It remains to be seen, but both players may need a partner. If I had to guess, I would say DeLuca platoons with Heyward and Kike Hernandez platoons with James Outman. Before you jump all over me about platooning Outman, consider this: Outman OPS’ed .835 against RHP, but just .665 against LHP. He hit a HR every 130 ABs against LHP and a HR every 16 ABs against RHP. Unless he can improve dramatically against LHP, he should be platooned! James crushes RHP while Kike crushes LHP (Career .801 OPS).
- Of course, either Vargas or Busch could be traded (or both), but LF could also be a platoon between them. I am not predicting that – just that it is a possibility.
- The Dodgers do not need both Miguel Rojas and CT3, even though Rojas is a superb SS. I am a big Austin Barnes and Miguel Rojas fan, but both could be gone by Spring.
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Discussion (201)
Disagree, not disagreeable
So, funny story: Early last week, I scheduled with my season ticket rep to stop by Dodger Stadium last Friday, Dec 1, to grab my season ticket holder gift and a few other items from the Dodger offices (over on the Lodge level down the left field line).
My rep called me Wed or Thurs last week and said she needed to cancel Friday (didn’t give me a reason why), and asked if I could come this week instead.
Today Bill Plunkett just tweeted:
“Today’s meaningless nugget of Shohei Ohtani news — his meeting with Dodgers was Friday afternoon at Dodger Stadium. Stadium tours were ppd/cancelled, team store was closed so no accidental sightings.”
I guess I now why I was told to stay away!!
I would love to solicit opinion on what (IF ANYTHING) the inclusion of specific names means wrt the viability of rumors:
From Twitter:
According to multiple sources, one name that will not be moved in a potential deal is right-hander Bobby Miller, who the #Dodgers have no interest in moving. The #WhiteSox have been looking to add arms this winter.
This below trade works for both me and the reasonably important trade generator:
Busch, Sheehan
For
Cease and Jake Eder
Tree trunks Calhoun to Angels, Dennis Santana to Yanks.
Yankees-Padres deal almost done, Grisham-Soto to the Yankees. Five players, including C Higashoika going back to San Diego. Grisham will be used as the Yankees fourth outfielder. Koch signs minor league deal with the Rockies. Dodgers leave the meetings with no major moves. Again.
Calhoun is like an older version of Busch. He came up as a big bat with no position. But his bat never developed in the big leagues. It will be interesting how Busch turns out, no matter where he goes. I’m rooting for him
Dodgers among teams expressing interest in outfielder Michael A Taylor.
According to MLBTR the White Sox are pulling back from negotiations for Dylan Cease. They seem to be waiting to see what happens with Yamamoto. Angels signed Adam Cimber and Rangers finalized their deal with Kirby Yates. Orioles officially sign Craig Kimbrel. 1 year 13 mil with an option.
Ohtani….5 years 60 mil and then Yamamoto 10 years 300 million…. Get it done…a lot of money to be made internationally here…plus Ohtani can get more money on his last contract…♂️
Soto to the Yankees:
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/padres-trade-juan-soto-trent-grisham-yankees.htmlSoto AND Trent Grisham to the Yankees, but Verdugo did not go to the Pads.
My guess is that the Yanks see Grisham as a 4th outfielder and late defensive replacement. He’s a premier centerfielder but Verdugo is the better hitter. Stanton is the DH.
I’m left to wonder how the Padres will fill their outfield with both Soto and Grisham gone.
With Ha-Seong Kim on the team, perhaps they’ll compete with the Giants for the Grandfather of the Wind! That makes a lot of sense to me. Kim has been great for the Pads.
Or maybe they go for Belli to stick it to the Dodgers!
Belli could also go to the Giants, or stay with the Cubs. The Yankees no longer seem like an option.
If Ohtani rejects the Dodgers, I would feel bummed, but it raises a lot of possibilities.
The priority is still at least two frontline starters–and Yamamoto becomes more possible. Yamamoto plus either Burnes or Cease would be nice. Maybe Glasnow. Perhaps three SPs, with the Dodgers moving to a 6-man rotation.
A lot of ways to fill the DH spot, including a return of JDM. I still like Matt Chapman as a major defensive upgrade at 3B, with Max moving to DH in a partial platoon with Smith. Obviously Vargas and Busch are options–if they are still around.
If the Dodgers want to further emphasize defense, AF could sign Kiermeyer with Outman shifting to LF. Remember, Kiermeyer turned down an LA offer last season to play for Toronto.
So many possibilities.
D’backs land Eduardo Rodriguez for 4 years at $80 million, wth a vesting option that could take it to five years and $99 million.
And the Reds add Candelario play 3B. I’m guessing they’ll gowith De La Cruz at SS and move McClain to 2B.
A bit puzzled about something….
I was looking over the Dodgers prospects list on mlb.com and noticed that Busch still qualifies as a “prospect” but DeLuca isn’t listed in the Top 30.
My first thought was that I must not have realized that DeLuca had played more games in the majors than Busch, but that isn’t the case.
Busch played in 27 games and had 72 ABs. (He hit to a discouraging .539 OPS.)
DeLuca played in 24 games and had only 42 ABs. (He hit to an encouraging .740.)
Now, I’m not sure if there is any real significance to the “prospect” label, but if Busch is one, then surely DeLuca is one too. At 25, he’s a year younger than Busch.
DeLuca, who was a track star at Calabasas High School (I think), certainly passed the eye test on defense. He used his speed to make a couple of real web gems. He never had inspired the hype like Busch and Vargas, but on the ML level he has outperformed both in his limited time. He’s a legit outfielder while on defense both Busch and Vargas remain works in progress.
DeLuca bats from the right side–as someone here pointed out, his stance strongly resembles Ron Cey’s. His righty bat could help balance the Dodgers lefty-heavy lineup. With a good spring, he could force himself onto the roster as a 4th outfielder, perhaps a platoon option. Like Outman, he could even play his way into the starting lineup.
Anyway, just thinking of DeLuca as a “top prospect” may ease the pain of dealing both Busch and Vargas in the quest for pitching. The common view in LADT had been one would be dealt and another kept. Keeping the under-hyped DeLuca makes more sense. It would probably be the best for both Busch and Vargas to get fresh opportunities on teams that need them.
Hope we get busy soon. Our competitors are getting better and we are not. We need pitching pitching and more pitching to beat this Yankee team in the World Series. Also not sold on Lux and Muncy at SS and 3B. Lets get this show on the road and get better!
Former Reds 3B Nick Senzel, a former No.2 overall draft pick, signs with Nationals for $2 million.
I had suggested the Dodgers get Senzel as a UT guy and a platoon partner for Max. He crushed lefties last season. Also can play corner OF.
A lot of people want Kike to come back, but is he a priority for the Dodgers?
They moved swiftly with Heyward but…