The Dominos are Ready to Fall
Speculation is rampant. The rumors are swirling. For baseball writers, “breaking a story” is a badge of honor and akin to winning the Writers’ World Series, so sometimes they see a story… even when there is none. So far, no significant deals or signings have occurred unless the…
Speculation is rampant. The rumors are swirling. For baseball writers, “breaking a story” is a badge of honor and akin to winning the Writers’ World Series, so sometimes they see a story… even when there is none. So far, no significant deals or signings have occurred unless the Braves trade for Kelnick, Gonzalez, and White seems like it is a blockbuster (it isn’t) or Wade Miley signing is a revelation. All is quiet, but the teams in on Ohtani also have a Plan B… so we wait!
It would seem that Ohtani is that first domino and we are all waiting for it to fall. The Dodgers have the deepest pockets and are expected by many to sign Shohei Ohtani, but we also need to remember that the Dodgers’ principal ownership group is Guggenheim, and they represent hundreds of thousands… maybe even millions (I have no clue) of investors. Investors demand a return as well as dividends. It would appear that the Dodgers are poised to go over the Luxury Tax Threshold again in 2024 for the fourth time in a row. The penalty will be steep next year, but in the fifth year, it will go up even more.
If the Dodgers do sign Ohtani and go in big on a couple of starters and all the trimmings, it is a signal to me that they are likely to sell the team in the next two to three years! Guggenheim, led by Mark Walter, bought the Dodgers for an insane $2.1 Billion Dollars. I could see them selling the team for $8 Billion! That’s right – EIGHT BILLION! They may love baseball, but this is a business, and businesses are made to be sold, and every business person knows that. So… we wait…. and wait…
We did learn that Mookie Betts is allegedly going to be the Dodgers’ starting second baseman in 2024. I think that is a good move, as it takes miles a game off of his legs. Playing 100% of the time in the infield will energize and engage Mookie to make him even better! I think it is a great move. I will have to be sold on Gavin Lux… and I am open to it, but I am from Missouri, and he is going to have to “show me” that he is a short stop! I remain skeptical…
JDM wants to be a Dodger for a year or two more, and so he is waiting in the wings in case the Dodgers do not sign Ohtani. There are so many options… Why is everyone convinced that Ohtani will pitch again in 2025, and then the same people say, “We can’t be certain that Walker Buehler will come back?” They both had torn UCLs. It was the second time for both. Why do many “assume” that Ohtani will be back on the mound and yet unsure of Buehler? It’s wishful thinking! A second torn UCL recovery is a crapshoot! There are no guarantees. We have to wait and see!
At worst, Ohtani and Buehler will never pitch again. At best, they may pitch for another three to five years! This is just the beginning. When will that BIG Domino fall? I am headed to Lost Wages… I mean Las Vegas this afternoon. I will be in the air for four hours, but otherwise, I will be available. Breaking news is likely! The LA Times said it best:
The stove should be turned all the way up this week. Ohtani is a transcendent, unparalleled two-way, two-time MVP on the cusp of signing the richest contract in North American sports history. He is the most marketable talent in the sport. His decision could shift the league’s landscape.
— Jorge Castillo, The LA Times
But nobody on the outside — not even the teams trying to lure him — has a clue where Ohtani is signing. Nobody knows, for sure, what Ohtani’s demands or priorities are. Nobody knows, for sure, which teams interest Ohtani. Nobody knows which clubs, if any, have met with Ohtani yet.
The Dodgers, Angels, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants are among the potential landing spots. His price could be anywhere between $500 million and $600 million. But if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen, they’re probably lying. Speculation is thick on thin information. The stove is light on gas.
That’s by design. Ohtani, 29, has always been shrouded in secrecy as a public figure. But the secrecy has risen to another, strange level in recent months.
Ohtani, who only speaks to reporters during the season on days he pitches, hasn’t spoken to the media since Aug. 9.
Two weeks later, he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, ending his season as a pitcher. He chose to continue hitting through Sept. 3 until sustaining an oblique strain. The next day, Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, held an unusual news conference with reporters and declined to specify what was wrong with Ohtani’s elbow.
Ohtani then underwent surgery on his elbow Sept. 19. In a peculiar twist, the Angels released a statement through his agency CAA announcing the development, but the type of procedure was missing. It was later reported by The Times’ Dylan Hernández that Ohtani had undergone what everyone assumed: Tommy John surgery.
Last month, Ohtani’s scheduled conference call with reporters after being named American League MVP was mysteriously canceled. National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., meanwhile, hopped on a call with the media while in uniform before a game in the Venezuelan winter league.
Coincidentally, Ohtani and Balelo have been very protective of the free-agent process — just as they were when Ohtani came over from Japan and chose a club in December 2017. ESPN recently reported that Ohtani’s camp warned clubs that any media leaks would be held against them. Developments, as a result, have been limited because teams are afraid of angering him.
Does that sound like a guy you want on your team? Not to me…
Parting Shots
- I look for defensive improvement from Max Muncy in his second year at 3B. With Mookie and Freddie entrenched at 2B and 1B respectively, he can hone his skills at 3B, knowing that is his only option. He will never be Brooks Robinson, but he might be above average. At least he was not horrible in 2023.
- Who will Jonny DeLuca be the platoon partner for? Jason Heyward or James Outman? It remains to be seen, but both players may need a partner. If I had to guess, I would say DeLuca platoons with Heyward and Kike Hernandez platoons with James Outman. Before you jump all over me about platooning Outman, consider this: Outman OPS’ed .835 against RHP, but just .665 against LHP. He hit a HR every 130 ABs against LHP and a HR every 16 ABs against RHP. Unless he can improve dramatically against LHP, he should be platooned! James crushes RHP while Kike crushes LHP (Career .801 OPS).
- Of course, either Vargas or Busch could be traded (or both), but LF could also be a platoon between them. I am not predicting that – just that it is a possibility.
- The Dodgers do not need both Miguel Rojas and CT3, even though Rojas is a superb SS. I am a big Austin Barnes and Miguel Rojas fan, but both could be gone by Spring.
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Discussion (201)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I can’t divulge my source (someone very close to Ohtani), but it’s down to 2 teams.
The Royals and the A’s.
And, now we have a mystery team, the Pirates.
Stay tuned!
I think Bluto is right. That is what’s being reported on MLB radio. It’s the Dodgers and the Blue Jays with the Giants and Cubs on the outside looking in … no mention of a mystery team.
Maybe it’s the void in actual information or speculation on steroids taking over, but it’s making a mess out of the winter meetings. This is not about deals and free agent signings
All this waiting and lack of action is like watching a faucet drip. It’s annoying. People keep saying organizations are waiting on Ohtani and Yamamoto. Nonsense. Most teams aren’t in on either one. It’s GMs wanting more prospect capital and other GMs thinking the trade price is too high. They’re having problems finding consensus. Where are the big traders of the past?
The pundits and analysts must be going nuts. If something doesn’t break tonight or tomorrow, this will go down as the worst meeting in history.
The Dodgers apparently are not even staying at the resort, but are camped nearby, according to one story. What? That seems silly, if true.
Was Gomes really surprised at what Roberts disclosed? Dave pointed out at the beginning of one interview that he was told what he could and couldn’t say about Ohtani, no guesswork involved.
He didn’t say anything out of line. Others are talking behind the scenes. He just admitted what was taking place or had taken place. Good for him. Enough of the silence is golden routine. MLB needs to promote the game and excite fans.
Well, okay the Yankees did acquire Alex Verdugo. So there is that.
C’mon Slohtani, make your mind up!!
Per Singing the Blue:
” I can’t divulge my source (someone very close to Ohtani), but it’s down to 2 teams.
The Royals and the A’s.
And, now we have a mystery team, the Pirates.”
Thanks STB.
You made my day 100% better. I hope Othani at least signs with a team that participates in the playoffs every now and again. What a waste of talent to never play in the post season.
There’s no way Ohtani is going to Toronto!
He’s a Dodger!
Back in the day Bear only the pennant winners got to play. Now it is a completely different era where 12 teams play and players have the opportunity to switch teams multiple times if they are good enough to have a long career.
Having Trout and Othani didn’t seem to help the Angel’s much. Without better pitching and timely hitting in the playoffs I doubt Othani will be the saviour so many on this blog hope for.
Listening to baseball on my old transistor radio was sure fun back in the day though, especially during the world series!
Bear
You said you would like to see a real contact hitter brought in. 1 of the 2 guys I’m advocating for the outfield is a true contact hitter and that’s Lee. He’s a LHB but I don’t agree with you about the Dodgers needing a RHB. Guys like Betts and Freeman and even guys that come close to those 2 wouldn’t be turned down by any GM that thinks he needs a specific handed hitter.
After last night’s Lottery Draft, the Dodgers will be drafting 23rd at the 2024 MLB First Year Player’s Draft at the All Star Game in July in Arlington Texas.
The Rule 5 Draft will take place at 2 p.m. ET today in Nashville. Let’s see who the Dodgers will lose by not protecting players on the 40 Man Roster.
this ohtani crap is getting as bad as lebrons big decision when he left cleveland! what a nightmare it would be if ohtani signed a one year contract and we had to do this all over again! could verdugo be in a package for soto? he’d fit right in with tatis and machado!
The boredom of the Great Shohei Wait has fastasizing about the 2027 Dodgers, which would be the last year of Freddie’s contract (unless it is extended). By then a couple of recent top draft picks could be ready for their spectacular debuts
Your 2027 fantasy lineup….
Kendall George CF
Freddie 1B
Mookie 2B
Shohei DH
Smith/Rushing C
Outman RF
Jake Geloff 3B
Vargas LF (he makes it!)
Lux SS
It’s nice to be a Dodgers fan.
The Yankees reportedly have stepped up their efforts to acquire Soto. Cleveland is listening to offers for Bieber and Clase. Heading out to California in the morning. Got a lot to do today. Will check in later.
Craig Kimbrel closing in on a deal with the Orioles.
Bear and Duke Not Snider
I think we are thinking different. When I mention Lee it’s with the thought that Ohtani is not going to be a Dodger and JDM is.
So to Bear, If I’m correct and I’m not saying I am, without signing Ohtani, it gives you 3 RHB with pop, Betts, JDM (who wants to come back apparently), Smith, plus whoever is going to platoon with Heyward and right about now I’d say it’s either DeLuca or Taylor.
So to Duke Not Snider, If I’m correct and I’m not saying I am, without signing Ohtani, I think there’s enough money for 2 starting pitchers (my thought Yamamoto and Imanaga), Lee and JDM. I might be wrong about the money though. If the money isn’t there then you trade a guy or a couple guys like Ferguson or Almonte or Yarbrough to free up enough money.
I’m in Los Wages.
I am a high roller. I have lost $20 and I am done!
😉
MLBTR reports that Ohtani’s decision will be made by Sunday.
You know what? I forgot about the small amount of at bats Outman had in 2022 which should be added to his 2023 rookie year. I don’t know if that counts, at least to me it should. His rookie/career slashline is .254/.358/.448/.806 that’s pretty damn good for a rookie. But he still needs to do better against LHP.
Rule 5 draft this afternoon. Royals made room with a trade of Dylan Coleman to the Astros. Rockies are releasing Connor Seabold. I expect Dodgers to lose multiple prospects in both the major and minor league drafts.
Yankees have lost 3 players in the rule 5 draft, the Red Sox 2. Dodgers have not lost anyone.
Jason Heyward signing now official. Dodger roster maxed out at 40. Roster moves need to be made before any signing is made official.
Dodgers lost two players in the minor league side of the rule 5 draft, Darrin Pinales a pitcher to the D-Backs and Carson Taylor, a catcher, to the Phillies.
“On many accounts, the Dodgers still the frontrunners in all of this. I do not see in any way, in any way that what Dave Roberts said yesterday changes the calculus here.”
Per Jon Morosi via MLB Network
Eduardo Rodriguez narrows choice to 2 teams . Should we be in on Eduardo despite what happened last year ? I would be yes at a 3y 55-60mil..Thoughts?
That was a brutal and boring winter meetings! MLB needs to change the framework to make this a more productive and exciting event!
Judge, Soto & Verdugo looks a pretty good Outfield to me.
Guessing they’ll try and extend Soto during the season.
Winter Meetings much like last year. A damp squib.