The Dodgers and 2B
Second base has been an enigma for the Dodgers for the last two decades. The concern does predate AF, but he has not found the remedy for the position. The opening day 2B for LAD during the AF era has been Kike’ (2 years), Logan Forsythe (2 years), Chase Utley and Howie Kendrick 1 year each. The best bWAR during the AF era was Kike’ last year at 2.2. It

Second base has been an enigma for the Dodgers for the last two decades. The concern does predate AF, but he has not found the remedy for the position. The opening day 2B for LAD during the AF era has been Kike’ (2 years), Logan Forsythe (2 years), Chase Utley and Howie Kendrick 1 year each. The best bWAR during the AF era was Kike’ last year at 2.2. It is clear to all LAD fans that Kike’ at 2B is due to his excellent glovework.
Since 2000, the team has only had two players who were considered starters for more than 2 years: Jeff Kent (4 years) 2005-2008 and Mark Grudzielanek (3 years) 2000-2002. The best offensive year for any LAD 2B was Orlando Hudson in 2009.
| Player | Year | Offensive bWAR |
| Kike’ Hernandez | 2020 | .6 |
| Kike’ Hernandez | 2019 | 2.2 |
| Logan Forsythe | 2018 | -.5 |
| Logan Forsythe | 2017 | 1.8 |
| Chase Utley | 2016 | 1.2 |
| Howie Kendrick | 2015 | 1.6 |
| Dee Gordon | 2014 | 3.5 |
| Mark Ellis | 2013 | 3.1 |
| Mark Ellis | 2012 | 2.6 |
| Jamey Carroll | 2011 | 1.1 |
| Blake DeWitt | 2010 | .5 |
| Orlando Hudson | 2009 | 4.1 |
| Jeff Kent | 2008 | .1 |
| Jeff Kent | 2007 | 2.2 |
| Jeff Kent | 2006 | .7 |
| Jeff Kent | 2005 | 3.8 |
| Alex Cora | 2004 | 1.5 |
| Alex Cora | 2003 | .3 |
| Mark Grudzielanek | 2002 | .9 |
| Mark Grudzielanek | 2001 | 1.5 |
| Mark Grudzielanek | 2000 | 1.7 |
If only AF had taken my call in December 2018, the Dodgers would have DJ LeMahieu at 2B. DJLM had a 5.9 offensive bWAR last year. He was off to an even better start in 2020. Unfortunately, he got a thumb strain and was placed on the IL. He returned to NYY last night. Oh well.
Going into the season, the plan (hope) was for Gavin Lux to take control of 2B and settle in for a lengthy career. Then COVID-19 hits and the plans all came to a halt. Upon the return of baseball in early July, Gavin was a no show. There was no reported explanation. I refuse to speculate. That left competition for the position to Kike’ Hernandez and Chris Taylor.
Kike’ had a good ST 2.0 and earned the start on opening day against the Giants. Kike’ had a fantastic game going 4-5 with a HR and 5 RBIs and was hoping that the position was his. Kike’ has started 19 games at 2B, Muncy has started 10 games, and CT3 and Lux 5 each.
We are quickly approaching the final third of the season which should be a preview of the playoffs. I would like to see Gavin Lux get the bulk of the playing time to build up his experience, but he needs to be able to consistently hit at the ML level to be considered a 2B option for the playoffs. CT3 has a BA of .261 and OPS of .757, while Kike’ has a .220 BA and .625 OPS. Both CT3 and Kike’ can play all over the field, but Kike’ is exceptional defensively at 2B. Doc is going to continue to shuffle his lineup to get everyone sufficient playing time. For the next 21 games, I think Gavin and Kike’ will platoon/rotate at 2B, and CT3 will continue to play all over. But when it comes to the playoffs, I have to think that CT3 has earned the starting 2B position. While Kike’ is exceptional defensively, CT3 is only outstanding. They do not lose a heck of a lot defensively with CT3 at 2B, but the bat is much better.
Gavin will have to work hard in the offseason and come to camp next spring ready to take the position. I predict he will. He may have to spend more time in the warmer LA climate to get more practice in. If not, Zach McKinstry and CT3 should be able to hold it down until Michael Busch is ready to take over.
In last night’s game, Luke Weaver showed MLB again that the Dodgers have a real tough time hitting the change up. Corey Seager may not have hit one of his 100 MPH hits, but his bat stayed in the path long enough to hit a couple of hump back liners on changeups. Matt Beaty really struggled against that offspeed with 3 strikeouts (2 on changeups and one on an 84 MPH slider). Austin Barnes also K’d on a couple of offspeed sliders.
Weaver allowed 4 hits and two runs. While the runs were earned, a better throw by Christian Walker to 2B would have ended the first in a double play without the runs scoring. CT3 got the big hit in the first inning on a four seam fastball. Everyone knows the Dodgers can pound fastballs. But they need to prove they can sit back and stay with the change.
Dodger hitters feasted on a very poor bullpen that was decimated with the loss of Andrew Chafin and Archie Bradley. If those two stayed with AZ, I think AZ shuts out the Dodgers on Wednesday. But there is no WHAT IF in life. You do or you do not.
IMO, AJ Pollock needs to finish the season as the regular LF. He is not hitting all that well against RHP, but he is hitting RHP better than Joc. AJ did hit his HR on the RHRP last night. CT3 is hitting RHP at .280/.393/.400/.793. The Dodgers have a lot of options, and I would expect Doc to explore most of them. To predict what Doc will do is mostly futile.
The team is waiting for JT’s hammy to heal so he can get back in the game.
LAD pitching was the bright spot for the Dodgers in the AZ series. Julio Urias pitched more quickly and while pounding the strike zone. He allowed 1 run on a Carson Kelly HR and went 6.0 innings. Walker Buehler came back off the IL and pitched a brilliant 5.0 innings of 2 hit no run baseball. Last night, Clayton Kershaw pitched perhaps his best game of the year. Clayton Kershaw is showing signs of vintage CK, and the hopes of all Dodger fans is that this rejuvenated CK rolls into the post season. Kershaw was exceptional for his 6.0 innings allowing only an infield single and two walks. He did strike out 8 DBacks to pass 2,500 strikeouts in his career, and pass Christy Mathewson for 38th place in most strikeouts. I couldn’t believe that AJ Burnett is in 37th place. I checked and he did pitch for 17 years. Nothing extraordinary, but he did amass 2,513 Ks.
At 32 years, 168 days, CK is the 3rd youngest pitcher to get to 2,500 Ks. Only Nolan Ryan and Walter Johnson got there faster. The only other 32 year old pitchers to reach 2,500 strikeouts at the age of 32 are Pedro Martinez and Tom Seaver. That is 4 HOF pitchers surrounding CK. Kershaw is a certainty to join them on a first ballot HOF vote.
The once invincible bullpen got nicked again. This time Dylan Floro gave up a run on a walk, single and fielder’s choice. His ball moves so much it has to be hard to command. But Blake Treinen and Jake McGee finished strong to secure the victory. Scott Alexander allowed 2 runs in the first game of the series and was quickly jettisoned to USC. This year the bullpen is a strength to be reckoned with.
After a rather pedestrian 11-7 start, the team has now won 18 out of their last 21. If they can beat the Rockies on Friday, they will be playing .750 baseball over the first 40 games. Colorado remains in the #8 seed. San Francisco and Milwaukee are .5 games behind Colorado and NYM is a game and a half back.
This team reminds me a lot of the 2017 team. They are relentless, can beat you in a lot of ways, and the pitching is exceptional.
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Discussion (97)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The Dodgers have been offensively challenged of late. They need to start hitting better as the season winds down and the playoffs get closer. There will be a sorting out process – they need to know who will be able to contribute and who won’t – thus, they are trying out Lux and giving him a long look. I suspect that they will be giving more AB to Rios as well.
I find it funny that many here seem to be ready to give up on Lux at age 22 with only 92 career AB. I remember that one of the reasons that the Dodgers were willing to trade Paul Konerko for Jeff Shaw was that his career didn’t get off to a good start. In 166 AB for the Dodgers he hit around .200 with 4 HR so they thought he was going to be a bust.
Lux hasn’t started off well but that doesn’t mean that it’s time to give up on him.
If Lux is the long term solution to the 2B problem then an infield with he and Seager looks to be solid for the foreseeable future. If not then maybe Busch is the answer. They don’t need a superstar at each position. Turner won’t be starting for too much longer either. Maybe Busch and Hoese come up around the same time?
Good stuff, AC. Nice analysis of the 2nd base situation. I love Hernandez for his defensive skills and what he brings to the Dodgers. I am also a huge fan of CT3. I was hoping Lux would be a success at 2nd and he has done well defensively, but not offensively so far. It was mentioned that he is from Kenosha, Wisconsin, so maybe that has been weighing on his mind. He just looks overwhelmed at the plate in my opinion, so perhaps next year will be his year.
That said, I think the best person for the majority of playing time at 2nd base is Chris Taylor.
I have been predicting a breakout for Kike for 3 years. It hasn’t happened, but it took Justin Turner until age 29 season to “get it.” Kike will be 29 next season and I do admit that he has more than double the at-bats of JT. There are times when he looks awesome and then like he doesn’t have a clue (offensively).
At 2B, he is an elite defender and very good in CF, LF, and RF. I have this nagging feeling he will “get it” someday. He looked better last night and has his BA “up to” .220. His OB% is an abysmal .255 because he has only walked 4 times in 84 AB’s. Whatever he has done is not working. He needs to change his approach TOTALLY.
Kike, change your thinking – change your life! This guy has so much potential and it is maddening to watch him squander such talent. He is beloved by his teammates, but like Pavlov’s dog, when that pitch flies, he can’t help but salivate and swing…. and pull it! If he could just hit .260, with his power, he would hit 30 HR, but this won’t cut it!
I am not convinced Lux is the answer at 2B. He is most certainly not a MLB SS. Seager is staying at SS for the foreseeable future. Mike Busch may be the answer, but that’s at least 2022. They can put Muncy at 2B and Rios at 1B.
Seager won’t move to third base, I don’t remember where, but I think I already read about moving to third base, and it wasn’t the best solution. I think so!
Nice write up Jeff.
Lux the probably 2nd base solution for the future is not written in stone. Only 22 he has some time to win the position. With more playing time my bet would be this will be a platoon with Taylor next year after Kike moves on. An injury to Seager would slot Lux full time into 2nd with Taylor getting most at SS. With the DH looking like this going to be adopted JT would be a logical choice the get that most of games. Seager moving to 3rd opens things for Lux into next year. Now he needs to hit little bit.
I’m glad Wood has accepted his role as a reliever. His lifetime stats show he’s more effective out of the pen than as a starter.
When JT comes back who will he replace on the roster? Will it be Santana or Lux or Beaty or someone else?
Keith Law on K. Williams:
For Stripling, the Jays gave up two players, one a PTBNL and the other their second-round pick from 2019, projectable right-hander Kendall Williams. Williams, the Jays’ No. 15 prospect coming into the year, is 6-foot-6 but not very physically mature yet, showing good velocity and spin on his curveball, needing more consistency in his delivery — the kind of coaching he should get in a professional player development environment. The Dodgers have a pretty good track record with this sort of pitcher, and are in a position to take chances on low-probability, high-reward pitchers like Williams.
I’ve been a huge Gavin Lux supporter the last couple years, but man, I am not impressed so far with his at bats. Even when he makes contact, the ball is not squared up very often. Will Smith has a low BA, but we all see how hard he hits the ball; he’s just had horrible luck up till now. But Lux is not making good contact. I wish he’d lay a bunt down the 3rd base line, just to get on base.
But we’re lucky. We have a crazy deep lineup that’s succeeding without even average contributions from 2b. But overall, I agree with AC. If Lux doesn’t seize the job these next 2-3 weeks, go with CT3 in October. He’s looking like he did in 2017, and he always plays good D and plays the game hard.
The 3 kid pitchers go this weekend. It’ll be nice to see them vs the Rockies lineup .
I think the change-of-pace is the most under appreciated pitches in MLB. Plural because the change-of-pace may be a circle-change, split fingered, along with various styles that were once referred to as palm balls. I think Ross Stripling would have been more successful if he had thrown his change-up (which appeared to be a good one) more frequently than 16% of the time. Kenta Maeda had a good change and threw it almost 24% of the time in 2019; Hyun Jin Ryu used the pitch more than 27% of the time in 2019 — and both are having excellent 2020 seasons throwing the pitch even more frequently with their new teams. Don’t know what is up with Lux, but the way he is playing right now I would rather see Zach McKinstry getting those at bats.
Hey, I go way back. I remember Charlie Neal, pretty good player, at second base, Jim Gilliam too.
I’m thinking that Gavin Lux will be given lots of opportunity to step it up in the next four weeks, but we’ll have to wait until next year, a normal spring and regular season to see if he’s the guy moving forward.
Kiki is pretty good defensively, but just hasn’t hit enough — he’ll be moving on. Taylor’s value is being able to play multiple positions. The position is kind of like third before Justin Turner showed up.
The next month may provide insight into what the Dodgers may do this winter. Does Lux show signs of life? Plus how do you read that? Strange times and all.
What’s really obvious this year is that a healthy Cory Seager is a force.
Funny about Orlando Hudson. The Dodgers signed him, he was on fire early, had the best opening day ever, then eventually faded and became an afterthought toward the end of the season. The Dodgers gave up the 16th pick in the draft to sign him, as I recall.
As much as I liked Hudson, I didn’t like him that much. Interesting how some players fall out of favor and how quickly it happens.
It would be nice to return to the days of Davy Lopes. Maybe Lux becomes that player. If not him, who steps up or does Friedman search the trade market.? That hasn’t really worked (Forsythe, Kendrick).
Since AF has been in charge they have made numerous attempts to fill 2b. Without going thru them all there have been Cuban signings, trades, short term fixes and drafts, and so far none have been successful.
At least AF is aware of it.