Ever since Andrew Friedman assumed the role of President of Baseball Operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers, he has pushed the envelope and has the Dodgers on the “Cutting Edge” in a variety of areas of baseball operations. Despite drafting at the bottom of each round, Andrew Friedman has built one of the TOP TWO FARM SYSTEMS in all of baseball. Under Mark Prior and Conner McGinnis, and several others, the Dodgers have built a “Pitchers’ Factory” that is unrivaled in baseball.
I want to say that they have also built a “Hitters’ Factory,” and they have established a program that seems to elevate hitters’ games. Yes, they have – but it doesn’t always work. It’s hard to articulate this because I don’t even know how to describe it, but Robert Van Socyoc has been a huge part of “making” JD Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Will Smith, and Chris Taylor into All-Star or MVP-type players.
But, there is also a downside… or so it would seem. It seems to me that the “bigger they are, the harder they fall.” Cody, Max, CT3, and to a lesser extent, JD Martinez have fallen. It seems like whatever made them great is also their Kryptonite. Even Justin Turner seemed to falter after years of success. It seems like their swings are complicated to the point that if they get out of whack, it’s hard to get back into (shall we say?) the “swing of things.”
Still, they move forward. They have helped re-tool the swings of James Outman, Jason Heyward, and Trayce Thompson. The just is still out, but there is reason for optimism about all four players. There must be something to it because most other teams are emulating what the Dodgers are doing. The only part of this that bothers me is that it seems to be “feast or famine”. So far this season, there have been three feasts and two famines and it has alternated every other game:
- Game 1 – 8 Runs
- Game 2 – 1 Run
- Game 3 – 10 Runs
- Game 4 – 1 Run
- Game 5 – 13 Runs
The Dodgers are averaging 6.6 runs a game in this microcosm of the season. That will win you a lot of games… especially when you have that kind of pitching as well. A team doing that could challenge the All-Time Season Record for wins. However, if it remains “feast or famine,” that record is safe. It’s no secret that the Dodgers as currently constructed, are not good in one-run games. The reasons for that are perfectly clear: They refuse to play “small ball.” I understand why – statistics and probabilities say to stick with what you do best and this is a mandate that most likely comes from the Top (Andrew Friedman).
Some of you would be quick to blame it on Dave Roberts, but this is an Organizational Decision and then Dodgers will likely have the best offense in the NL again in 2023. So why change? I am not suggesting that you get away from what made you successful, but what I am saying is you do not always have to “Grip it and Rip it!” When you are locked in a pitcher’s duel, one run can win or lose the game. There comes a time to shorten up, lay down a bunt, steal a base and hit behind the runner. I have seen some of this but not enough.
It’s time for the Dodgers to stop playing for the homerun and just move the runners in those close critical games. It will add 10-15 more wins, and it is critical in the playoffs, which are now a crapshoot at best. Being able to play “small ball” at certain times should be the next step in the Dodger’s Evolution.
Dodgers News & Notes
- I did not have a lot of hope for Jason Hayward… but that is changing. Great character, an excellent baserunner, great glove, and it’s starting to look like he can hit a little bit. They could have something…
- After a good Spring, Max Muncy is battling (himself) and can’t seem to catch a break. He might need to sit a couple of games just to clear his head.
- If Julio can get a clean first inning, he might pitch a no-hitter tonight!
Discussion (38)
Disagree, not disagreeable
This ump blows
I think Max is/was pressing at bat and in the field. I think he will be just fine. Give it time. Like another 30 games.
But right about now, he can’t catch a break!
KT3. Nuff said.
Muncy sucks at 3rd base.
It’s looking a bit embarrassing for Max at third! Ouch! Average seems a long ways away
A great 5IP by the Ace
Smith is having a great start.
Maybe that Big Fly will get Muncy to relax and just play. He looks like he is wound too tight.
The Rockies top of the 3RD inning is why the Three True Outcome approach has so much resonance today.
The Last Game Blues:
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRc9g9ec/
I gotta watch this again.
Muncy at it again at third base
Announcer watching same game? “… can’t get a handle…”. No chance for Will on Thor nite. Met fans going deja vu on that action. Does he even bother to throw to first?
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRc9B2Y9/
Any questions why AF didn’t resign Heaney? Or Scherzer for that matter.
Keith Law continues to wax rhapsodic about the Dodgers system ($$$$):
https://theathletic.com/4378592/2023/04/04/cactus-league-scouting-padres-ethan-salas/
This time about:
Justin Wrobleski, Juan Morillo and the wonderfully named: Mairoshendrick Martinus amongst others.
Where is Vogel and Kendall?
This is what Tulsa’s roster could look like:
C – Diego Cartaya
1B – Brandon Lewis
2B – Jorbit Vivas
SS – Eddys Leonard
3B – Kody Hoese (one more try)
LF – Jose Ramos
CF – Jonny DeLuca
RF – Andy Pages
Subs: Imanol Vargas, Yusneil Diaz, Carson Taylor
Starting Pitchers:
1. Emmett Sheehan
2. Nick Frasso
3. River Ryan
4. Landon Knack
5. John Rooney
That should be a fun team to watch.
Poor Edwin Uceta must feel like a ping pong ball. DFA’d last week and picked up by the Pirates, he was DFA’d again today. Lets hope tonight is one of those famine games. I won’t be watching, heading out to Tarzana to play some music.
Diego Cartaya, the Dodgers top prospect, will begin the 2023 season in Double-A Tulsa, one of five players on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster to open the year with the Drillers.
Other Dodgers on the 40-man roster who open this season in Tulsa are infielders Jorbit Vivas and Eddys Leonard — who both played at Great Lakes all last season and are entering their second season on the 40-man roster — plus outfielders Andy Pages and Jonny DeLuca, who ended last season in Double-A.
Pitchers Nick Frasso and River Ryan, both acquired by the Dodgers last season in trades, plus 2021 sixth-round draft pick Emmet Sheehan all were named on at least one national Dodgers top-10 team prospect list, and open the year in Tulsa. Frasso and Sheehan pitched for the Drillres last year, while Ryan pitched with Great Lakes.
Ben Harris, another 2021 draft pick who struck out 45 percent of batters faced last year across both Class-A levels but also walked 15.5 percent, joins Tulsa after ending last year in Great Lakes. Same trajectory for outielder Jose Ramos, who played for Panama this spring during the World Baseball Classic.
10:10 PM ET
Rockies (2-3)
Dodgers (3-2)
SPGerman Marquez R
1-0 3.00 ERA 6IP %K
SP Julio Urias L
1-0 3.00 ERA 6IP 6K
Confirmed Lineup
2B Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Martinez R
LF D. Peralta L
CF James Outman L
SS Chris Taylor R
RF J. Heyward L
Clear-day
0% None
59° Wind 17 mph L-R
Yeah no doubt. Friedman walks on water
Jayne Cobb,
I believe that Friedman’s background in Wall Street and his interest in Statistics and Probability come into play here. What some may describe as “stubborn’ he will say is being “disciplined.” “Stick to the plan and the the plan will reward you.”
OPS. It would appear I’m the only one talking about it. On base plus slugging. Strikeouts only matter if your OPS is below league average. Our guys led the entire league in runs scored and they did it with OPS and OPS+.
Mickey Mantle led the league in strikeouts 5 times. So did Babe Ruth. You want to criticize them?
Get on base and drive the ball. Do it a lot. If you make an out now and then, don’t sweat it. That’s baseball.
!st base is where the plays end more often and they begin at 3rd often so RH bats also figure in making 3rd ‘hot’. Still me guessing.
The three outcome approach is the lamest thing any hitting coach could teach and I want so much to believe that it’s more theory than reality
I agree completely, Mark
Here is my question: AF and Doc aren’t stupid. The feast v famine dynamic has been an issue for the Dodgers for many years in close games. The 3 outcome approach has been an issue in close games. Why have they stubbornly refused to make adjustments? There has to be a reason. However, I haven’t a clue what that reason may be.
Freddie is a master at adjusting his swing to different situations. He does it all the time. Seager was very good at that as well. Yet, I’ve watched for years as Kike, CT3, Bellinger and Muncy take gargantuan hacks or take a strike right down the middle with two strikes (usually attempting to work a walk, in Muncy’s case); in situations where we just needed contact. Almost any contact. Bases loaded no out strikeouts! That has frustrated me way more than Doc’s pitching change decisions.
Why? Is it that they don’t want players altering their swing in situations because that might mess up their mechanics? I’m just tossing that out there because I got nothing else.
These guys are smarter than us. Yet they do not make adjustments in close games.
Anybody have any theories as to why?
So far, MIguel Vargas has more walks than the Philadelphia Phillies, 9-8
Boy when they feast they do it up good. Get so full all want to do next day is take a nap. Curious to see if can stay awake tonight
Baseball America’s podcast spends time on Dodgers prospects:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/baseball-america/id201539011?i=1000607335607
Mark, 3 feasts and two famines. Ya switched em.
Excellent article Mark. And good points Phil.
My outlook turns very optimistic after a big win compared to two frustrating one run losses. While the hitting production has been like a roller coaster, the starting pitching has been great. Michael Grove deserved better but he kept the Dodgers in the game. And the young players are fun to watch.
Mark, I couldn’t agree more with your assessment about our offensive philosophy and approach to situational hitting. I have lobbied for more contact and less strikeouts which was a huge problem last spot season. I call it the faucet being full on or full off; a feast or famine. Our approach creates an inability to manufacture runs in tight games. When the bats are quiet we don’t adjust well and it has been costly. Remember the old “anyway you can” advice?
I’m not trying to turn the line up into a band of punch and judy hitters. But there is a time and place where small ball can be a weapon. Put down a bunt, start a runner, run and hit. Force other teams to make plays. It needs to be practiced throughout the season and we don’t want to.
Last night was a classic example how one pitch, one call, can change every thing. It did for Michael Grove. Top 5, Moustakas up after an opening walk to McMahon. Grove throws a high strike 3 and Smith cuts down McMahon stealing 2nd. Double play that clears the bases. But wait. Mark Carlson calls the obvious high strike, ball 4. (He missed 9 strikes high or low on the day) Now with 2 on, a double ends Grove’s night. He loses a chance for a win and gets tagged for 3 earned run.
Grove’s fate should have been different. ABS please.
I love watching Vargas play. He seems to have so much fun. Always smiling, chatting with Freddie and the Vets. They all seem to like the kid. Nice to see.
Max. Can’t field and can’t hit, right now.
Trayce Thompson seems to lose concentration and mails in at bats sometimes. He gave away an at bat bottom 7. He casually took strike 3 like he had a cab double parked and wanted to get home.
Muncy appears to lack confidence at this point. After last year and a 1 for 19 start, who can blame him. He’s hunting walks instead of strikes. I have felt for two years now he’s a DH, and the older he gets the less valuable he is in the field. And he’s proving that now isn’t he. If all he had to think about was hitting I think he would improve.
I am happy to see both Vargas and Outman OPSn like they are. I do not expect that to continue. They’re rookies. Major League pitchers will find ways to get them out.
Mark I think the “harder they fall” guys you mention are just getting old. Take a close look at stat pages by year on baseball players and you will see most start trending down in their early 30’s. Heck, Bellinger started trending down at 24. When it’s possible you want to get the guys whose star is rising.
“Feast or Famine” Indeed Mark! This has been my concern with the team since the end of last season. Let’s hope they do incorporate some “small ball” into their game plan. IMO small ball is needed at times in the playoffs.
Whatever Muncy winds up being, he is not a cleanup hitter right now.
Hopefully Vargas is fine. Held my breath after that HBP…..
Poor Julio. It’s his turn for nothing tonight! Can this team ever just score 4-5 runs! Oh and why the heck did AF sign Shelby Miller and why does Roberts let him pitch? Idiots! Don’t they know that Miller has bad numbers against lefties who’s names begin with S and wear high socks!
Dave: The reason they call 3rd “the hot corner” is because next to the pitcher, the 3rd baseman is closest to the plate. Hence the ball gets there sooner than anywhere else. 2nd base requires more speed, but 3rd requires more agility, making it the harder position to play.
Yes, Mark, but according to Scott Andes over at ladodgerreport.com, the Dodger farm system is mediocre and doesn’t produce any position players. I think you’re way off base and it was a travesty that you banned him. (sarcasm alert)
Meanwhile, it’s early. It’s way early, but some encouraging early stats that buttress my fantasy that Outman and Vargas can get locked in a competition for ROY.
Some interesting early observations, but Outman is already 3rd on the WAR leaderboard on Fangraphs with .5 WAR. Yes, his K rate is high at 31%, but we expected that. However, his BB% is also pretty good. BABIP is .500, which is obviously unsustainable, and that .333 BA is going to come down quite a bit. One thing to note, however, is that his defensive metrics are outstanding, and he already has 3 Defensive Runs Saved. I don’t think defense is going to be as variable as offensive metrics, so Outman has a good chance to be one of the league leaders defensively.
Bellinger, meanwhile, is batting .067. I’m glad I don’t have to watch his futility at the plate anymore.
Vargas is also off to an outstanding start and has .5 WAR to match Outman. While Outman has done it with power, with a silly ISO at .583, Vargas is doing it with OBP, walking at a 50% clip, and only striking out 16.7% of the time.
Vargas has also been much better than average defensively. I really like the thinking of putting him at 2nd base. It’s a less demanding position than 3rd base, and for a rookie it puts a lot less pressure on him than the hot corner. At some point he could move over to 3rd, but I like him at 2nd.
Some of the off-the-charts metrics are obviously going to come down to Earth, but we can get a sense of some trends.