The Case for Standing Pat

2020 was the year Minor League Baseball disappeared from the face of the earth. There is no trace of it and it does not appear in any record or history books. Some games were evidently played, but no records were kept. There is probably some video, but we will never be allowed to see it. What happened in 2020 could be a boon for some players and a bust for others.

• Maybe Keibert Ruiz spent hours a day working on his swing… burning it into his muscle memory and maybe the HR we say from him in his first call-up is his new norm. We don’t know – we lost a year, but the possibility exists that he COULD be MLB ready in the Spring of 2021.
• Maybe Kody Hoese and Mike Busch benefitted more from the one-on-one tutelage and are ready to take their game to the next level. We know that one year can be a make or break year (just ask Will Smith). Did 2020 help or hinder Kody and Mike? We don’t know.
• Maybe JoJo Gray has learned a new pitch or technique that can also take him to the next level. MLB writers recently voted for one player from each team to be the Rookie of the Year and Josiah Gray was the consensus winner for the Dodgers. Did JoJo take a big step forward at the USC location or a step back. We don’t know.

However, we have heard anecdotal evidence about each of these players that could lead one to believe that might be true. Maybe it’s true about all of them, but Hoese and Busch might only be ready for AA next year. I have heard several people talk about Gray’s development. The fact that he has only been pitching full-time for three years has shocked some people who say he has an amazing “feel” for the game. I have heard that his stuff is getting filthier, but I can’t really say.

If Ruiz is ready, that could be a game-changer. He could platoon with Austin Barnes as a L-R platoon and hit 8th. That would allow Will Smith go to 2B or 3B, which is like trading for a top tier player. Do you believe in Gavin Lux? Give him a try in LF and platoon him with Pollock until he shows he deserves 2B or Rios plays himself off 3B. The farm system stays intact and all the bats we need may be on the roster already.

I believe that Muncy and Bellinger will come back to their top form. If you do it once, twice… you can do it again. I believe that Muncy and Bellinger will both have great seasons in 2021.

Sign DJ LeMahieu? That would cost the Dodgers a draft pick. Remember when, after losing Mark Teixeira to free agency and the Yankees, the Angels were awarded the 25th pick of the draft as compensation. And who did they use that pick on? None other than Mike Trout. Or look at it another way: Signing Mark Teixeira cost the Yankees Mike Trout.

There are others, but here are the highlights (or lowlights), depending upon your perspective:

• The Rangers landed Joey Gallo after the Angels signed CJ Wilson.
• The Rockies drafted Trevor Story after losing Octavio Dotel to Toronto.
• The Yankees got Aaron Judge after losing Nick Swisher to the Indians.
• The D-Bags for AJ Pollock after losing Orlando Hudson to the Dodgers.
• The Braves got Adam Wainwright after the D-Bags signed Russ Springer.

The list is much longer, but you get my drift. If you aren’t forced to make a dope-fiend move, the player you draft may be better than the ones you sign. I would not be afraid to go into 2021 with this lineup:

1. Betts RF
2. Seager SS
3. Smith 2B
4. Muncy 1B
5. Bellinger CF
6. Pollock /Raley (or Reks) LF
7. Rios 3B
8. Barnes/Ruiz C

On the other hand, the Dodgers could have waited until Mookie Betts was a free agent this winter and signed him, but then they would have missed out on a World Series Championship. So, there is that! Ideally, I would like to see another power hitter at 3B.

The Bullpen

Yesterday, I wrote this:

The Dodgers have a lot of young arms who could prove to be more useful in 2021 than any free agent or trade. Uceta, Carrillo, White, Santana, Miller, Beeter, Grove, Pepiot, even JoJo Gray, could prove to be valuable in the pen. I am not saying all will, but one or two might be ready

AC commented: “You cannot possibly believe that any of those prospects are better relievers than Hendriks, Hand, Yates, Rosenthal, Treinen, Colome, Melancon. Less expensive but not better.”

I am only talking about one or two out of that bunch, not all of them. But really my point is this and I will address each of those pitchers: Past performance is not indicative of future results. “Past performance is no guarantee of future results” is generally treated as a warning label: Don’t assume an investment will continue to do well in the future simply because it’s done well in the past. “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” Let’s consider this:

• Liam Hendriks (32 years-old) – He has had one excellent year and one good year. Before that, he was not much to write home about. He is seeking a 4 or 5-year deal at around $12 million per year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
• Brad Hand (31 years-old) – He has lost a lot of velocity and his peripherals indicate that his stuff is not what it once was. Nobody wanted him for $10 million for 1 year. Maybe half that for a year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
• Kirby Yates (33 years old) – Fresh off elbow surgery. Will he be recovered? Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
• Trevor Rosenthal (31 years old) – Has had an up and down career, but since 2013, 2014, 2015 he has had just flashes of success. I might risk more on him. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
• Blake Treinen (31 years old) – Once put two good years together and while he was serviceable last year, he was not great. I’d give him $5 million for a year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
• Alex Colome (32 years old) – He has been pretty solid for several years so I would consider him, but at what cost. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
• Mark Melancon (36 years old) – His ship is sailing, but he would bring a different look to the Dodgers pen, but only at a Dollar General price.

The 800-pound gorilla in the room is that you could sign any of those guys and their arms could fall off. Then what? Right about now, Andrew Friedman is kicking the tires and waiting for someone to set the market, but he won’t make a dope-fiend move like signing Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly to contracts for 2021 for a total $26 million.

The point is that any of the relievers the Dodgers could potentially sign are not a sure thing. Relievers are very fickle and injury-prone. One or the other can happen at any time. Of the players, I mentioned above (Uceta, Carrillo, White, Santana, Miller, Beeter, Grove, Pepiot, JoJo Gray), one or maybe two could make the team at some time during the season. The Dodgers already have Knebel, Cleavinger, Alexander, Floro, Gonzalez, Graterol, Jansen, Kelly, Kolarek, May, Gonsolin, and Urias on the roster who all are vying for roles in the bullpen. Then add in non-roster invitees Asuaje, Schwaab, Pazos, Morrow, and Nelson and you have 17 pitchers competing for 7 or 8 spots… along with the other group I mentioned. There are always surprises, and I think there will be few next year – both good and bad.

Remember two things:

1. You can never have enough arms in the bullpen; and
2. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Case for Going Big

Do You Wanna’ Get Really Crazy? So, everyone knows that Cincinnati wants to cut payroll. Joey Votto is Canadian and has 4 years and $100 Million dollars remaining on his contract. Maybe he is moveable… if some cash is included. Follow along with me:

The Dodgers give up Kody Hoese, Edwin Rios, Clayton Beeter, Jacob Amaya, and Mitch White.

The Reds give up Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, $20 Million, and Eugenio Suarez.

The Blue Jays give up Jordan Groshans and AJ Cole.

The Blue Jays end up with Joey Votto, $35 Million, and Sonny Gray. This also likely gets them out of the Justin Turner Sweepstakes. Votto finishes his career at home. Gray gives them another solid starter.

The Reds end up with Grohans, AJ Cole, Hoese, Rios, Beeter, Amaya, and White. It’s a nice haul and they get a lot of payroll relief.

The Dodgers end up with Suarez and Castillo.

Just an idea.

If someone gives Turner 3 years and $36 million the Dodgers will not counter, but I have a feeling that 2 years and $18 Million will get it done. Alex Wood is the only other Free Agent I would try and sign.

Lineup:

1. Betts RF
2. Smith C
3. Seager SS
4. Muncy 1B
5. Suarez 3B
6. Bellinger CF
7. Pollock LF
8. Lux 2B (yu gotta’ show me)

Bench: Turner, Barnes, McKinstry, Raley, Beaty

Rotation:

1. Kershaw, Buehler, Castillo
2. Price
3. Urias, Gonsolin, May, Gray

Pen:

1. Graterol
2. Jansen
3. Kelly
4. Knebel
5. Cleavinger,
6. Alexander
7. Floro
8. Gonzalez
9. Kolarek
10. Morrow
11. Nelson
12. Wood
13. Whoever…

I think they would be set. Would I do all that? Maybe… maybe not. Indecision may or may not be part of my problem. Remember Andrew Friedman’s Ten Commandments? Not likely to happen… I’m glad it’s him making these decisions and not me!

Who is the Lead Singer?

I have nothing more to say THIS YEAR!