The #1 Bullpen in Baseball
Very early in the season, I predicted that the Dodgers would have a TOP 5 BULLPEN. Well, they currently are now #5 in ERA in all of MLB. I have always used ERA as a metric, although I know there are many others. Some of you want to use other metrics to disprove that they are #5. I say Whatever! I have always thought about combining a number of metrics,
Very early in the season, I predicted that the Dodgers would have a TOP 5 BULLPEN. Well, they currently are now #5 in ERA in all of MLB. I have always used ERA as a metric, although I know there are many others. Some of you want to use other metrics to “disprove” that they are #5. I say “Whatever!” I have always thought about combining a number of metrics, such as BA, OPS, WHIP, ERA, inherited runners scored, and others into one metric, but I’m too busy. Perhaps our resident, sage CPA can do that. 😉 You know who you are, Jeff!
However, I am not going to stop there. Barring injury, I believe that the Dodgers will have the best bullpen in baseball… and that will be a tough pill for many of you to swallow who have lamented, moaned, groaned, bitched, complained, castigated, maligned, and obsessed about the Dodgers’ bullpen. This season may have taken years off of your life because of your wild imaginings. How silly is that?
Of course, the media (bloggers and fish hacks alike) buy into this demented thinking. Every blog that I know of and every fish hack who writes for one of the fish wraps knows that negativity gets them more pay-per-clicks on the blogs and more readers on the fish wraps. I (we) do not make any money from what we write. If you do not like what we say, go somewhere else. I will speak for myself, but I do not do this for the money, and I can tell you that Jeff (AC) , Harold (DC), 2D2 (Rob), and Bear (Michael) do not do this for the money. At LADT, the Boss is an SOB and the pay is bad!
We do this because we love baseball and the Dodgers. I do not write what you want to hear. I write what I want to say… and Jeff, Harold, Michael, and Rob may not always agree. That’s fine. OK. No problem. There are no rules as to what you can write. However, I have heard all season that Andrew Friedman does not know how to build a bullpen (and of course, you do). I call BS! This has been a crazy season. There have been more injuries than ever… EVER! What has caused it? I have my suspicions, but the science will follow. I suspect that some of the injuries are related to the COVID-19 vaccine, which by the way, I urge everyone to get. Of course, some consider that preposterous and have essentially told me to shut up.
Some obtuse-narrow-minded sycophants disagree… as is their prerogative. They believe that can’t be true. You must be an idiot, moron, dumbass, derelict, or worse to even think that… or so I have been told. It is a fact that vaccination injection site adverse reactions are usually mild and transient, however, it is well documented in the medical field that that there can be difficulties. Subacromial-subdeltoid bursitis may occur, leading to shoulder dysfunction and ongoing pain. How often this has happened is unclear. But, it does happen.
What is clear is that the vaccine, by nature, revs up your immune system and that can cause inflammation, which could lead to soft tissue injuries. This should not stop anyone from getting vaccinated but I do believe that the spate of injuries we have seen this year is somewhat related to the vaccine. People respond differently to the vaccine. I was sick for four days. Others, do not miss a beat. Upon injection with the Moderna Vaccine, my brother immediately developed a metallic taste, which has yet to go away. I have talked to people who have had flu-like aches and pains for weeks, but most people are fine.
However, back to the bullpen. The bullpen problems started when Dustin May went down (I doubt his TJ was caused by the vaccine) and it was a trickle-down effect. Jimmy Nelson has been on the IL multiple times and is fresh back from it as we speak. The Dodgers have had Corey Knebel on the IL for over half the season and he is due back imminently. Mitch White, Alex Vesia, and Phil Bickford have stepped up and possibly secured playoff roster spots.
Some relievers have shown they are not ready but have flashes of dominance, such as Garrett Cleavinger and Edwin Uceta. Others are showing progress, including The Bazooka. Joe Kelly is looking dominant (finally) after surgery to remove a cyst from his shoulder. Clayton Kershaw will allegedly be back later this week, which will further “lengthen” the bullpen, and Danny Duffy will be back later in the month. As I mentioned, Corey Knebel’s return is right around the corner.
Of course, you can look at the records of each reliever, but it is all about when you “peak” and it appears to me that the stars are aligning just in time for the playoffs. Here is what I believe the pitching staff looks like for the playoffs:
STARTERS:
- Buehler
- Kershaw (L)
- Sherzer
- Urias (L)
RELIEVERS:
- Gonsolin
- Duffy (L)
- Nelson
- Knebel
- Treinen
- Price (L)
- Bickford
- Gonzalez (L)
- Jansen
Like many of you, I do not trust Kenley Jansen to close in a one-run game, but Duffy, Kelly, Nelson, Treinen, and Knebel also have experience, I think that this pitching staff has the makings of a terrifying bullpen and starting rotation to any playoff team. That list does not include The Bazooka, Alex Vesia, Scott Alexander, and Mitch White… all of whom could play a role as well. I considered the possibility that Tony Catman could be gone for the year and also that Julio Urias could go to the bullpen as a “super-reliever.” Both possibilities are on the table. However, I am very happy with this bullpen… especially if those damn injuries can wane.
Trevor Bauer Saga
Here is some interesting reading on the Trevor Bauer situation, which may give you some more insight: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2021/7/30/22600011/why-trevor-bauer-keeps-delaying
He may or may not be done and if he is not, what will the Dodgers and his teammates say? To be continued… I do not have an opinion because I do not have enough information.
The OKC Dodgers were the only Dodger minor league team to play last night and they beat Round Rock 9-3. They did it with just 5 hits and 3 BB. Souza, Jr. hit a Grand Slam and Sheldon Noisy his a 3-Run HR. Sheldon is playing a lot of SS. Ryan Pepiot went 5 innings in his AAA debut, allowing 2 hits and 2 runs . He walked 3 and struck out 7. He still has some growing to do… in the control department.
I Look Down on No One…
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Discussion (145)
Disagree, not disagreeable
A quality performance against the Ass tros would have been partial redemption last night ,not just talking about before the game. To get shutout makes it even worse. Another game off the clock , if they have hopes of winning their division.
In other news from Chavez Ravine, Trea Turner will be flying into Los Angeles on Friday, according to Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Friday will be the 10th day after Turner’s positive COVID-19 test, meaning his minimum quarantine period will have elapsed. But at this point, it’s unclear if he will be immediately activated by the club.
At least you boys can go to bed.
I gotta long day ahead.
Feel like I do after a Post Season defeat.
Yeah, Scherzer will probably come ready to play. He will need some offense, I sure hope he can hit .
Dodger offense is pathetic, we won’t be seeing the Snakes or Rockies in the playoffs
Thanks @Therealten for the following quote:
Dodger Nation quotes Robert’s as saying the team needs to play with more urgency. Lol you think duh!!! My lord he is the one who created the lack of urgency. It wasn’t to long ago he said you can’t go out and play like your hair is on fire for 162
As if I need more ammunition to prove my point that Roberts is too laid back. Who wants their manager to say something like this even if he is thinking it??? Tonights game was as intense as it can get in the regular season and we laid (yet another) goose egg. Roberts sets the lineup and has Cody and his .150 batting 7th with red hot Pollack batting 8th. Does Pollack come through in the 8th with two on/two out? Who knows but these are the type of calls the manager makes along who to bring in from the bullpen that can put up zeros. Worst visual of the night = Maldonado sitting at second base laying out with peace sign after being out dead to right if it weren’t for more sloppy baseball with dropped ball. Man, I’m so frustrated I just needed to vent. Thanks for giving me the channel. End on a positive note = tomorrow is another day and that’s the great part about baseball. We get to see Scherzer represent The Blue and I’m confident he will come with a mission.
The bigger the game the bigger the disappointment! The Dodger bench is just pathetic. Maybe the worst in baseball!
Cody Bellinger is hapless and helpless at the same time. He’s a shell of his former self.
Orel says, “ Dodgers are coming up flat “ well you don’t say. How frustrating is this. The
A-team out there tonight looked pretty overwhelmed.
Much better ab’s by Houston. We’re chasing out of the zone all night long and no solid contact Just another disappointing performance in a blah month! All or nothing with nothing against decent pitching. We won’t be seeing Arizona’s staff in the playoffs!
After that terrible Muncy AB, I was almost certain the game was over, but when I see Victor Jansen (Or Kenley Gonzalez) come into the game, I knew the game definitely was over!
And I say it right now, not tomorrow when we know the final score of the game.
I wish they made me look bad and end up winning this damn game!
Have we never seen a slider before!
What’s with Muncy? His worst AB all year? That was simply sad.
Ok then, the win for Treinen !
Buehler grinding it out. Same ole offense no matter who is in the lineup. McCullers is really tough a rh kershaw slider slider slider. Home plate umpire helping at critical pitches. Seager rolling over on first pitch again but not striking out like Muncy, turner,smith. These are the games the giants have been able to win the dodgers just can’t seem to get over the hump against good teams. 9 more outs but now our bullpen has to hold.
And the Covid beat goes on brought on by???
Alot of good stuff in between the crapola…
1-0… they’re killing me…
I’m giving the bronze to Jason…
Best line up , same result: 0 Runs. For now
So far the Dbags are doing their job, so now
Let’s Go Dodgers.
We might have a second baseman problem.
Bottom of the fifth time to go to work feel the urgency
Slow start. Figures.
Just read this in the Atlantic:
“The White House has rejected a nationwide vaccine mandate—a sweeping suggestion that the Biden administration could not easily enact if it wanted to—but a no-fly list for unvaccinated adults is an obvious step that the federal government should take. It will help limit the risk of transmission at destinations where unvaccinated people travel—and, by setting norms that restrict certain privileges to vaccinated people, will also help raise the stagnant vaccination rates that are keeping both the economy and society from fully recovering.”
I like it.
Eddys Leonard hit a two-run home run in his first at bat with the Great Lakes Loons tonight. This guy is a player. He will play the entire season as a 20-year-old.
Hyun-il Choi five strong innings in his Loons debut. One earned run, eight strikeouts and no walks.
At the risk of being a name caller, it would sure be nice to see machine gun Joe Kelly pitch to one or two Asstros tonight.
Well, Doc may trust Jansen in a tight game, but even though I am not from Missouri I am a show me kind of guy. He just lets too many guys get on base. Then some games, he looks like the old Jansen.
08/03/21 Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Edwin Uceta on the 10-day injured list. Right back strain.
08/03/21 Los Angeles Dodgers recalled RHP Brusdar Graterol from Oklahoma City Dodgers.
Well actually, LAD was #6 in reliever ERA going into today:
SD – 2.89
Tampa – 3.06
SF – 3.39
Miami – 3.41
Cleveland – 3.57
LAD – 3.59
Boston – 3.62
Cubs – 3.63
Milwaukee – 3.63
A’s – 3.73
They are actually closer to 9th than they are to 4th. I do not believe ERA is the gold standard for measuring relievers. The algorithm Mark suggested might work, but I will leave that for the software engineers. BandP is closer to being able to design that algorithm than me. I believe in numbers, and I will audit it. But I will leave the design to others. But for now, I guess the stat Dodgerick provided a couple days back can suffice – LAD is 20th in bWAR at (-2.2), between Seattle and Pittsburgh.
IMO, when talking about relievers, I think most are concerned with late inning high leverage situations rather than those coming in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th…as many LAD relievers do in their bullpen games. Who cares what Garrett Cleavinger or Alex Vesia or Brusdar Graterol or David Price do in those early innings as long as they do not let the game out of hand. And for the most part, the bullpen games have not been the problem. The most relevant statistic measuring late inning high leverage situations is blown saves, where the Dodgers are 29th at 23. Only Philadelphia and their 25 blown saves have more. They have the 4th most reliever losses and only the 14th most reliever wins.
Other metrics:
WHIP – 9th
BAA – 6th
BB – 13th most
K – 16th most
The LAD bullpen has pitched the 22nd most innings. Of the ten teams above, only the A’s and SF have pitched less. SF relievers have pitched 374.1 while LAD has pitched 376. This is a testament to how consistently deep into the games Buehler, Urias, Kershaw, and Bauer have pitched. SD starters are a mess, so they need a deeper bullpen, and they have one. They improved with the addition of Daniel Hudson, while LAD improved the starting rotation with another pitcher who can go deep: Max Scherzer.
One other metric many stat nerds look at is SO/W ratio. Of the seven teams above that are pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot (LAD, SF, SD, Milwaukee, Boston, Oakland, Tampa Bay), the Dodgers are tied (with Boston) for 6th/ 7th with a 2.41 ratio.
Tampa Bay – 3.32
SF – 3.12
SD – 2.92
Milwaukee – 2.59
Oakland – 2.54
LAD & Boston – 2.41
We all know that ERA is derived by multiplying the number of earned runs by 9 and dividing the product by the number of innings pitched. We also know that the first run in an extra inning is considered unearned. The Dodgers are 1-11 in extra-inning games, which your eyes should tell you that their late inning high leverage relievers are not very good. If we add one earned run for each extra inning loss, the Dodgers bullpen drops to 10th in ERA. In my thinking, it was the reliever that allowed the run. It is only due to a definition that MLB considers the run unearned. For me, when judging a bullpen in late inning high leverage situations, I consider it earned. It is a rule that puts a runner on 2nd with no outs, not a defensive lapse.
I believe that Danny Duffy could start in September, but will be the multi-inning reliever during the playoffs. He will be this year’s Julio Urias. Whether he will be as effective, we will have to wait and see.
I am not about to guess who will be the 8-9 LAD relievers in the postseason. Who knows who will be healthy or hurt. I agree with those that say we may have seen the last of Tony Gonsolin for 2021. I do not believe he has been healthy all year. I also do not believe that VGon is healthy. I am not comfortable that Graterol came into the season with the right attitude (WS hangover), and he is not ready for a repeat this year. He is talented, but he is going to have to develop that second breaking ball/off speed pitch and wait until next year (IMO). Jimmy Nelson has to stay healthy.
I do not care about relievers who we know will not be on the roster come October, and what their numbers do for the team metrics. The Dodgers have 6 relief pitchers who have more than 25.0 IP, and the Giants have 5. I use the Giants, because that is the team they are chasing. I have also excluded Zack Littell from the Giants list, because the team has moved him to MiLB. The team that BandP said would be trailing LAD by 4.5 games by the end of July. Oh well. ☺
In order of IP:
LAD
Blake Treinen – 2.22 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .196 BAA, 4.08 SO/W, 3 saves, 3 blown saves
Kenley Jansen – 2.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .187 BAA, 1.71 SO/W, 22 saves, 5 blown saves
Victor Gonzalez – 3.16 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .241 BAA, 1.72 SO/W, 1 save, 1 blown save
Phil Bickford – 2.51 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .210 BAA, 3.09 SO/W, 1 save, 2 blown saves
Joe Kelly – 3.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .196 BAA, 4.57 SO/W, 1 save, 1 blown save
Jimmy Nelson – 1.98 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .141 BAA, 3.73 SO/W, 0 saves, 1 blown save
SFG
Tyler Rogers – 1.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .232 BAA, 3.56 SO/W, 11 saves, 5 blown saves
Jake McGee – 2.23 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, .168 BAA, 6.71 SO/W, 23 saves, 2 blown saves
Jarlin Garcia – 2.70 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .150 BAA, 3.83 SO/W, 1 save, 1 blown save
Jose Alvarez – 2.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .208 BAA, 2.70 SO/W, 0 saves, 0 blown saves
Dominic Leone – 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .157 BAA, 2.80 SO/W, 0 saves, 2 blown saves
The Giants have added Tony Watson, while the Dodgers will be adding Corey Knebel and Danny Duffy. Score one for the good guys.
I still do not believe VGon is healthy, and I hope will not be a playoff reliever option unless every doctor says he is healthy.
The above Giant relievers ERA, WHIP, BAA, SO/W, and saves/blown saves are all better than LAD (in total), but not so much that I would be overly concerned except to when it comes to shutting down the game. The Giants will give Jake McGee the majority of save opportunities in the playoffs. Kapler can see who has been successful. Any close late inning 1-run save opportunity will go to McGee, while Rogers will get the 2-3 run lead save opportunities.
Neither AF nor Doc have moved away from KJ. Anyone who thinks that anybody but KJ was going to be the closer going into the stretch was not being realistic. Let Treinen, Knebel, or even Joe Kelly have a shot at closing. Taking away the first game that Kelly pitched this year, his numbers are 1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .160 BAA, and .474 OPS. He certainly deserves a chance.
Bottom line for me is that the Dodgers bullpen is not great. They are good, and probably good enough to win it all as long as the starters get innings and the offense shows up. But my big reservation is that the Giants have a closer they can count on, while the Dodgers do not, and apparently no desire to make a change.