8 runs on 9 Hits. That’s better… not good! But I’ll take it! Freddie Freeman is smoking hot! Will Smith is white-hot, and Bellinger, Taylor, Turner, and Muncy were 2-14! YIKES! Gavin Lux is hitting .290. I am happy for him, and Trayce Thompson hit a 2-run double that was legit! I am very happy for Trayce.
Andreson struggled but kept the Dodgers in the game. His ERA sits at 3.00, but Vesia got the win. Vesia’s ERA is dropping (3.32) and Almonte and Hudson were filthy. Kimbrel was better, but he still scares the bejesus outta me. He took the place of Reyes Moronta last night: Mop up guy!
A lot of you want to fire Dave Roberts for whatever you can blame him for (hitting Muncy 4th, whatever), but you will also have to fire the entire Front Office as well because baseball is now a collaborative effort with the manager just being their arm. No, the manager is not a puppet but he does communicate extensively with the Braintrust, and they are and should be in agreement. That includes Andrew Friedman and his GM as well as all their minions. I guarantee you that the Front Office is in agreement with the vast majority of what Dave Roberts does, so when you say “Fire Dave Roberts” you really are saying “Get Andrew Friedman and his gang out of LA.” Do you really want to get rid of one of the most successful Front Offices of all time?
They have analytics out of their analytics. They uses to show you that analytics area (which was huge) on the Stadium Tours but they have stopped because it is so much bigger and more robust and is TOP SECRET. Statistics and Probability and Analytics and Sabermetrics rule their world. They play the numbers and if a decision is made, more than likely there was supporting evidence and the more those decisions are correct, the more they make them. Some of you may think it takes the human element out of the game, but not really. You can still play a hunch, but the less it works the more the data support the statistics.
The Dodgers and most other teams make “data-driven” decisions and if Mookie Betts hits #1 (which I do not prefer) you can “bet your sweet bippy” there is support for that.
The same with Muncy hitting 4th ad nauseum or trading for Trayce Thompson. Is it always right? Of course not, but it is right more than “Playing a hunch.” Statistics and Probability are here to stay and evolve every day. The main point I want to drive home is that if you want Doc’s head, you have to ask for Andrew’s as well! They are in this together… and except for occasional blips, they have been pretty damn successful.
We all wonder why there are so many formerly good hitters who are struggling right about now. I have no inside information, but I tend to believe that there have been some “breakthroughs” in the use of analytics and statistics and this data is being used to get some hitters out at a much higher rate… until when (and if) they can adjust. Maybe I am wrong, but I guarantee you that these analytics departments are “mad scientists” cooking up concoctions to get hitters out at the speed of light. For every action, there is a reaction… how will they react? That is the question.
Play of the Game
Checking on old friends:
- Ross Stripling – 4-2, 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 53 IP
- Hyun-jin Ryu – Out with TJ Surgery
- Alex Verdugo – .247, .352 OB%, 4 HR, 35 RBI
- Kike Hernandez – .209, .273 OB%, 4 HR, 24 RBI
- Josiah Gray – 6-4, 3.95 ERA, 73 K, 1.26 WHIP
- Kaybear Ruiz -.254, .314 OB%, 2 HR, 15 RBI
- Joc Pederson – .266, .342 OB%, 15 HR, 37 RBI (I told you the Dodgers should have signed him)
- Kenley Jansen – 4-0, 18 Saves in 21 Opportunities, 3.03 ERA, 0.91 WHIP (Damn!)
- AJ Pollock – .259, .294 OB%, 4 HR, 23 RBI
- Dean Kremer – 1-1, 2.35 ERA 15 IP, 1.17 WHIP
- Rylan Bannon – 28 ABs, .143 BA.250 OB%
- Albert Pujols – 110 AB, .200 BA, .302 OB%
- Corey Seager – .235, .307 OB%, 15 HR, 32 RBI
- Zach Reks – .265 BA, .265 OB%
Future Dodgers Down on the Farm
- Miguel Vargas was 1-3 with a BB in his first game in LF. The OKC Dodgers were shut out 1-0.
- Mike Grove went 5, gave up 2 Hots, 0 Runs, Walked 2, and struck out 5.
- Dellin Betances got the loss as he gave up no Hits, no Walks, and allowed no Earned Runs. Here’s how that happened: Jake “I ain’t no 3B” Lamb made an error allowing Bubba Thompson to reach base. Thompson proceeds to steal second and third base. Nick Solak hits a sac fly and Thompson scores.
- Tulsa was also shutout 4-0, as Bobby Miller gave up 2 runs in the first, then settled down and shut them down through his 5 IP. He walked 1 and struck out 8. If you can’t score, you don’t win.
- Great Lakes did win as Jonny DeLuca was 3-4.
- Nick Nastrini went 5 Innings, allowed 5 Hits, and 2 Runs, striking out 7 and walking 2.
- Rancho Cucamonga scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal (24 runs) as they beat Lake Elsinore like a rented mule,
- Damon Keith was 4-6 with 4 RBI and Luis Rodriguez was 3-5 with 5 RBI.
- There were a lot of other stars last night, but I cover the cream of the crop. I cover the players I think have the best shot of making The Show. Of course, others will make it too, but the Dodgers Farm System is so deep, that I would have to write for an hour just to cover that aspect.
If you are on the West Coast, Watch the Dodgers with your Toast!
Did you know I am also a poet? 😉
Discussion (30)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Looking forward to the interviews.
I’m curious about what Nastrini and Sheehan have to say about the Dodgers’ reputation for improving pitchers. What is their experience and what have they witnessed with others?
Also curious whether these minor leagues ever wish to be traded to a franchise that isn’t so deep and could provide a better, faster shot at the majors. The political answer, of course, is to say they love the Dodger organization and plan to succeed here. But clearly Nastrini and Sheehan would be higher on the depth chart on many teams.
Thanks for the update on the old friends….
Happy to see Stripling playing well. He’s a class act and is a good example of a guy who probably benefited by a trade to a team that needed him more.
The numbers for Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz look pretty solid. It’s good when a big deal works for both sides. (Still amazed that AF snagged Trea.)
Happy, also, that Kenley is doing well. Pretty fun that Joc homered off him–but he still got the save.
And yeah, maybe bringing back Joc would have been a good idea…. but I’m sure glad it was the Rangers, not AF, who overpaid Seager. (Wish him well–but glad he’s moved on.)
It’s great to see Joc getting love for the All-Star game. He’s been popular everywhere he’s played–and had that epic HR derby match against Vlad Jr.
And of course going blonde and rocking the pearls….Hey, whatever works.
Fun game to watch. Heading back home next week. Not going to stop in Az like I was planning. Found out the truck needs some work on the rack and pinon steering when I get home. Have enjoyed myself, but I am more than ready to head back.
My opinion on all above is all the opinions above are flawed as you can play the same exact scenario with any given pitch to any player and each time will have different results, even a player like Ted Williams who had his own analytics that included small ball and launch angle. So there’s something on both sides of every coin. What works one day doesn’t work the next, Unless you have a lineup of 9 Ted Williams which that end result would be a win every game. Unless Koufax were on the bump. At any rate it’s all guessing but an educated guess usually is best IF you’re lucky that is. Max was confident because the park was what the doctor ordered. My analytics tell me Manfred is screwing up the game making it all about guessing and stats mean less because past performance mean less. Someone shoot the bastard.
Mark,
Ask the hitters you’re interviewing who is the toughest pitcher they faced thus far and conversely ask the pitchers who is toughest hitter to get out? Ask them what they have found to be the biggest difference between A ball(Rancho) and A+ ball (Great Lakes)?Ask them have the minor living conditions improved from last year to this year? Does each player have a specific goal or timeline they’re striving towards and think they can make it the SHOW?
I just got my media request approved, and my cameraman and I (my son-in-law who runs US Water Systems Video Department) are headed to Ft. Wayne tomorrow afternoon for the 7:05 Game. Woo-Hoo! Do you have any special questions you want to ask?
Ask Diego who his favorite fan is? And that’s Cassidy with 2 s’s.
Previous comment on analytics:
Analytics is based on statistics.
Statistics is a record of past outcomes.
That’s not quite right. Analytics is based on both probability and statistics. So while statistics are a record of past outcomes, an analytic department would then use probability to predict future outcomes.
What is key for any probabilistic assessment is an acceptable sample size. Sample size can be a function of both game data as well as numerical simulations. It would be relatively easy to simulate game data via Monte Carlo methods. So sample should not be an issue.
With respect to why is Muncy batting 4th. I suspect it has more to do with believing in the player then any analytics.
OK, I am going to tease you a little, but it looks like I am going to be granted the opportunity to interview Diego Cartaya, Austin Chubb, Emmet Sheehan, and Nick Nastini tomorrow or Saturday at Parkview Field in Ft. Wayne.
STAY TUNED!
Nice to see Max, JT and Belli finally put together a great game on the same day.
Also nice to see Vargas getting a look at LF. He’s the opposite of the “3 outcome hitter”, unless the MLB hitting coaches mess with his approach (always possible). He strikes out 20% of the time but walks 15% of the time. His early scouting reports praised his pure bat to ball skills, rated him high if he could transform his raw power to in game. He’s done that the past two years. Best case scenario. Looking forward to seeing him the LA outfield soon.
Mark, that’s an interesting theory on the analytics effecting these slumping stars. I’m not sure if that can explain it. But it’s certainly possible. It would take one hell of a “breakthrough” to have such a massive effect across so many teams simultaneously. Especially given how much effort teams devote to keeping their secret sauce secret. Several years ago I was talking to a buddy who was a minor league scout for the Blue Jays. He’d be sent all over the country before the trade deadline to evaluate potential trade chips in the lower levels. We’d meet up before 66ers or Quakes games for a beer when he was in town (btw, minor league scouts are paid like crap too. He’s in real estate now). He told me the Blue Jays didn’t even let their scouts speak to the deep analytic people. And many of of analytic people were separated from the people they had working on the “black box” coding in some bunker somewhere. Departmentalized like the damn CIA. If someone jumped ship, nobody had the full recipe for how they were analyzing players. So I doubt that if some team discovered a really effective pitching strategy that the word would spread across the league all at ounce. It would happen more gradually as other teams reverse engineered the reason why a team was changing their strategy. I still think it’s the ball. That’s the most simple, and likely explanation IMHO. I remember when people began speculating in the early 90s as to why players were hitting HRs at a record pace. Many said roids. Many other countered with nutrition, training, advanced stats… ect. Well, it was roids. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.
But you could be right. If you are, that would be good for the Dodgers. Because their brain trust and “black box” will eventually figure out how to counter any new strategies in time. That would be good for us. If it’s the ball, that would be worse. If they have players completely change their approach and swings to counter a dead ball only to have Manfred change em out for new “livelier” balls in the playoffs… that would be frustrating. He’s done that before.
On to ATL and a very real MLB pitching staff. Lets see if Cody and Max are indeed over the hump. Hoping so!
Our new closer finishes the sweep! That was 94 low and in on 2nd K. What in the world am I gonna complain about now? Dodgers are just no fun anymore!
Second helpings on that Thompson crow pie? I’ll take two please
I’m not sure, but I think all the hits against Bickford were already 2 strikes, poor pitching selection (catcher) or poor pitcher execution?
Ironic that the three players that everyone complains about most each have 3 hits and each have a big extra base hit. What now, David Price and Craig Kimbrel having scoreless outings? Yeah, that also happened.
Bickford should be getting one of those allowed five trips to the minor leagues after that performance.
Is it as easy as this? We complain and they respond! Why is Muncy hitting clean up? What a great at bat by Bellinger during his home run at bat. He had 3 great takes on pitches he can’t hit. Breaking stuff down and out of the zone and high fastballs. Then 3-0 and I’m thinking no way they’re letting him swing and kaboom. If he can tighten up his zone and swing at strikes then he’s got a chance to get back
Friedman has to stack that bullpen with guys without flaws because Doc has a hard time managing a bullpen. In other words the bullpen has to be flawless due to the manager that the Dodgers have.
Cody and Max with HR’s and Max is 3 for3 so far. Are they back? If so, the NL West should wave the white flag now. Freddie is red hot, Will Smith is looking great, Mookie back soon, and now a resurgent Cody and Max (hope so). Lets go Dodgers!
Max Muncy just had his first three-hit game of the year.
Cody seems to be stirring too.
Freddie is on a tear and again, it looks like the Dodger Front Office and Dave Roberts had more info than us, We were playing checkers while they were playing chess.
Before start dreaming of an awakening hitter, don’t forget they are playing against perhaps THE WORST TEAM IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES.
Muncy and JT have 2 hits each today.
Look out, but if they finally wake up, we’re about to take off.
Willie Calhoun is a Giant!
When he was a free agent, Joc didn’t want to come back and platoon with Pollock in LF. He was only going to sign someplace where he could play full time. AF wasn’t going to promise him that. I love Joc and I’m wearing his jersey going to Atlanta this weekend but it was time for him to move on.
Kike to me has always been over rated, He is good at being a super sub, not so good when he is in the lineup everyday. He was a spark plug type player who did some good things, but I never thought the guy should be out there everyday. They probably should have brought Joc back. He is playing better than most of the guys they have out there now. But hindsight is always 20-20. Getting the win was nice, having to come from behind again was not. The eight inning has proved this season at least to be the Dodgers big inning. But just once I would love to see them jump all over a starter and give their pitcher some room to breathe.
I think at some point analytics leads to self fulfilling prophecy. For example, analytics led to the pull and lift everything approach at the plate, which led to extreme shifts, which led to everyone hitting to into the shift.
Last night was an example of analytics gone wrong. The Dodgers started Alvarez, a left handed batter against the right handed Castillo (0-2 was the result). He was pulled for Trace Thompson against the left handed reliever, Detwiler and Trayce promptly strikes out. So that’s 0-3 against opposite side pitchers until Trace delivered the kill shot against the right handed reliever, going oppo for the double.
All the analytics produced nothing. But, Trayce came through in spite of the analytics going oppo against a same side pitcher.
Analytics is slow to adjust to changes because the sample size has to be large enough to be considered for decision making. Being overly reliant on analytics could be one of the reasons why it doesn’t work well in post-season series where your opponent adjusts while you’re waiting for the sample to be large enough to counter the adjustments.
Anyone can see that you don’t want a guy that isn’t hitting his weight and is towards the bottom of the team in RBI, despite batting cleanup isn’t the right move. But, those algorithm writers somehow know better? I think not. This is a case where past performance isn’t indicative of present performance and is a slow adjustment which leads to undesired results.
Can you take something for that!
Tho I think it might have been the water guru who was calling for Robert’s head a week ago! Just sayin!
12:35 PM ET
Dodgers (42-25)
Reds (23-45)
SP Clayton Kershaw L
4-1 2.08 ERA 39IP 40K
Confirmed Lineup
SS Trea Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
DH Will Smith R
2B Max Muncy L
RF Chris Taylor R
3B J. Turner R
LF Gavin Lux L
CF C. Bellinger L
C A. Barnes R
Clear-day
0% Rain
82° Wind 8 mph L-R
Also Kike on IL now
I believe holding runners on has always been an issue with Betances.