I have to say THANK YOU! I got almost a dozen e-mails (actually, this morning it stands at 13) from readers who all supported my position on Dave Roberts. Thank You! No negative responses. I wonder why that is? Maybe the haters like to remain anonymous? Still, the best one was from someone who also posted under “Joe Blanton” (not his normal moniker, but he wanted to avoid controversy, which is something I always do too 😉 ) and he said:
“Tacitus said: “To show resentment at a reproach is to acknowledge that one may have deserved it.”
Take it for what it is worth.“
Translated, that means that the ones who protest the loudest may be the ones who deserve it the most. BTW, Only the Really, Really Dumb Ones will respond to this, and that is fine.
I never called anyone a racist, and if you think I did, you should immediately enroll in an English Comprehension Class. However, I WAS called a racist. In doing that, they inadvertently proved my point! Bumsrap clearly articulated what I said:
“Let’s not protest too much. Let’s not get defensive. Let’s not allow ourselves to be insulted. Let’s move on. I don’t think somebody is racist because they have been critical of Roberts’ decisions. Mark did not say anything more than for us to be introspective. Again, let’s move on.“
— Bumsrap
I truly did not think anyone on this blog was a racist before I wrote about it and I certainly did not call you that, but after the viciousness of some of the responses, I now wonder… and you did that by your responses! How dare you tell me that I should not even write about it? You should know by now that I am going to say things most people are afraid to say. Again, I hope no one here on this blog is racist, but my confidence in that has been shaken with some of the responses… and that is on you! Again, I am only talking to a few of you and I will say it again: “You can’t cancel me or censure me.” We are now seeing that many things that caused social media to shut down people’s accounts and cancel them have been proven FALSE and Elon Musk is slowly peeling back the onion of Government interference in free speech. You may not even know about it because the mainstream media is generally not even reporting on it.
Racism exists – I hope it is not with you, but Dave Roberts, Kenley Jansen and other players of color have gotten death threats from Dodger fans following a loss. How stupid it that? Baseball is not life and death and while I am not a fan of Dave Roberts, he is not the horrid manager many make him out to be. It’s just that irrational need to blame the Dodger’s failures on someone. I say there is plenty of blame to go around. Dave Roberts has won more playoff games than all but four Hall of Fame Managers in his short career. They had very long careers: 3 to 5 times longer, but back then there were no playoffs – just the World Series.
With the advent of more-and-more playoff rounds, that means that their are more chances to win… and lose. Managers today are much more exposed with all of the games that have to be played. Maybe you do not understand statistics and probability, but the more games you have to play along the way, the more opportunities there are to lose… and win! I have a friend whose son is a mathematical genius. He is in the top .0001% of math wizards (I just made that number up, but it’s probably true). He makes big money as an actuary for a large insurance company. If you ask him to explain why it is harder for a team to win a World Series than anytime in the past, he has this statistical explanation that will make your eyes glaze over. Frankly, I cannot understand anything except the concept. By the way, 5 out of 4 people struggle with math!
There are anomalies and there are statistics and probablilty and there is just plain blind luck (good and bad). With the advent of Collective Bargaining, Free Agency, Revenue Sharing, Luxury Tax, Analytics, Scouting, Cheating, and Baseball Being Studied Year-Round as a “Science,” it is unlikely that you are going to see very many teams win back-to-back or multiple World Series in several seasons. The Dodgers have a better chance than most and they should have two World Series wins, not just one, under Andrew Freidman’s direction. Last years’ loss to the Padres was bitter, but I still say, there has never been a better time to be a Dodger fan than right about now!
The Dodgers Farm System is loaded and the Dodgers have to let the Youngsters play. Someone suggested that they should get some more vets so f they failed they had a backup plan. The roster is simply not that big. This season could showcase eight or even ten Dodger Minor League Players!
What to Expect From the Dodgers in the Near Future?
NOTHING! … and you will not be disappointed. Actually… maybe something…
Diego Cartaya is the Dodger’s best prospect, but we all know that in the TOP 56 Spots, the Dodgers have six (count ’em… 6) players. One player who is not in there THIS YEAR is Dalton Rushing, and as good as Diego Cartaya is, Dalton could be in the major leagues before Diego! WOW! How could that happen?
Well, Diego Cartaya will likely start in Tulsa (AA) next season… that is, unless they decide he is ready for OKC, which might be a stretch! Dalton Rushing will likely start in Great Lakes, but I would expect to see him move up in about 10 minutes (not literally) to Tulsa and then to OKC. By the All-Star Break, Dalton Rushing may be fully baked and ready to take out of the oven.
Think about this: Dalton Rushing – LH, hit-first catcher, and Will Smith, RH, All-Star Catcher, in a platoon at C. That allows the Dodgers to trade Austin Barnes ($3.5 Million Salary – every dollar counts), Blake Treinen ($8 Million), plus Diego Cartaya, and whoever else for whatever they need. This may have to be a three-way deal and still may have to include CT3 and other prospects, but it is a path to do Two Things:
- Get under the Luxury Tax Threshold; and
- Get a player who will take the Dodgers over the top – Like Bryan Reynolds.
Cartaya is a lot to pay, but with Rushing, Yenier Fernandez, and other catchers in the pipeline, it is a good risk. Many of you are high on James Outman because you like sparkly, shiny things, but there is a reason the Dodgers have six players in MLBs TOP 56, and Outman is not even mentioned in the TOP 100! There’s a reason for that…
Bryan Reynolds is not a great Centerfielder, but he is solid, and he is a star offensively. My guess is that he would blossom as a Dodger and be better than he has ever been. It will strengthen the infield defense and allow Gavin Lux to be a Gold Glove second baseman. Lux has amazing range as a 2B, and without the shift, this is vitally important. Max Muncy moves to 3B where his lack of range will be mitigated. Of course, Rojas is an elite SS. Vargas moves to LF where I think he will settle in nicely and be in the Rookie of the Year leaders. Look at the lineup:
- Lux 2B (L)
- Betts RF (R)
- Freeman 1B (L)
- Martinez DH (R)
- Reynolds CF (B)
- Muncy 3B (L)
- Smith/Rushing C (R)
- Vargas LF (R)
- Rojas SS (R)
Bench: Busch, Hernandez, Outman, Thompson
That is a damn good lineup – one that very likely may put up more runs than last year. Maybe it’s a 112-win season… However, it comes at a High Price: Cartaya and others (there will have to be other prospects involved and it may be a 3-team deal!
I will discuss the Pitching soon, but I have no worries about it. I do not think the Dodgers need any more pitching… if anything, they have a surplus! Here’s what I say: If the Dodgers make that trade, they will be the best team in baseball… again. However, it may not happen into well into the season. So, we wait!
The Dodgers have also agreed to terms with 13 international amateur free agents, a group headlined by shortstop Joendry Vargas, the No. 3 overall prospect on the top 50 international list, and outfielder Arnaldo Lantigua, who ranks No. 23. It also includes six right-handed pitchers, five shortstops, an outfielder and a catcher. Six players were signed out of the Domincan Republic, while seven were signed out of Venezuela.
The Scoop on Dalton Rushing
I am very excited about Dalton Rushing and the prospect of having Will Smith and Dalton Rushing as a R – L Tandem and two fellow Louisville Cardinals at Catcher… and DH (in the future).
Discussion (24)
Disagree, not disagreeable
If only we could just refrain from calling people or their opinions idiotic, or morons, etc. that would be great. Just agree or disagree and discuss your points. Band P AND Mark I feel the most guilty of that.
David Crosby who was with the Byrds and Crosby Stills, Nash and Young passed away at age 81.. RIP. Loved their music.
A lot of opinions out there. Still a little vitriol, but that can be fixed. What we all need is to take a step back and remember that each one of us has an opinion. Not all of us are going to necessarily agree with that opinion. But we should all realize the person’s right to express their opinion. No one who writes here has any connection to the Dodgers. We are not paid to do what we do. I do it because I love baseball and the Dodgers. Being retired I have the time to research and present posts I hope our readership will enjoy. Mark has run this site since it’s inception. And as a business owner, he has shown it as much attention as he can. But it is awful hard to run a business and then dedicate time to running a baseball blog. I think at times the name calling has gotten out of hand. Impugning someone for what one might perceive as a lack of intelligence is not really conducive to good conversation. I have already watched one site go down the drain because the site administrator allowed the vitriol to get out of hand. I do not want to see the same thing happen here. This is my baseball outlet. The place where for a couple of years now I have been able to have intelligent discourse with fellow fans and not a whole lot of bickering until lately. We have lost some of our best writers, either to passing on, or just deciding it was too much for them to keep on posting. I believe if we keep it civil, the site will flourish. No one wants to be called dumb, or stupid or any other name. We are all adults, or at least I think so. Maybe it is time for a gut check and we all realize we share one common love. The Dodgers. I wish everyone a great evening, health and the best of everything life can offer. It is way to short to be pissed off all of the time.
This site has turned into puke
B&P: So I guess the only measure of a good manager is how many World Series he has won. And you say I don’t have an ounce of logic in my being. So I guess both Showalter & Snitker are both bad managers because they also lost a short series to 80 something teams. Wow.
The Mattingly argument really has no foundation. Mattingly had a .551 regular season record with us and a .430 record with the Marlins. Doc has a .632 record with us, hence .082 better than Mattingly. If we apply the same difference to Mattingly’s Marlins record Doc would have a .512 record with the Marlins which probably makes him a pretty good manager.
Your using Mattingly to support your point is about as useless as the analysis I just did. I was asked yesterday by Patch if Doc would have the same winning record with the Pirates. Another useless question for measuring Doc. Of course he would not have the same record. You do need personnel. However, the real question is would he have had a better record than what the Pirates had in the past few years. I would argue his record with the same team would have been better but unfortunately we have no way of proving that.
Continually criticizing me for using WL percentage as the most important measure of Doc shows a complete lack of understanding of how the world works. Managers in every walk of life are measured by the results of what they are managing. One has to look no further than the stock market. By the way, telling me I need a hobby is condescending at best and demeaning to the core so stop talking about people attacking others when you are the worst violator of that on this site.
I do want to come back to what Patch said to me yesterday about my using right decision percentages. He asked me to provide my source and without so much as the courtesy to let me respond he went on the attack and told me I was making things up again. The word again really set me back because of what it states and more importantly what it implies. Also extremely condescending. I don’t ever make things up and was frankly offended by that. And Patch for your reference, the statement that “the best decision makers in the world only make the right decision 7 out of 10 times” was taught in a Decision Analysis class at one of the most prestigious graduate schools of Business Administration, my source.
B&P you are right that I do not post on other topics. I am extremely busy and quite frankly only have time enough to read this site on a regular basis due to my love of the Dodgers. I only started posting about Doc because of your continual barbs showing your obvious bias.
As I’ve said before, there is no changing your narrow mind and until the results show otherwise, there is no changing mine.
Jesus said,
“turn the other cheek”
better advice I think.
I have to believe that trading for Reynolds is a pipe dream. How much and who are you willing to give up for only three years of control of a player who is already 28 years old. I also think there is no way he is traded before the deadline. If he is traded the Pirates are going to wait until they can maximize their return for him. Trading him at the deadline sets up a bidding war with teams needing to upgrade at that position. I believe that debating it now is kind of a waste of energy until the Dodgers get through spring training and see what they have. For all the rumors about them searching for a center fielder, there is a lack of reports that they are. Fans keep throwing names out there hoping something will stick in an offseason where the team has been relatively quiet and has not made any real major moves. Kelenic? Please. Potential does not equal production. Reynolds is projected to hit around .268 with 21 long balls. He also strikes out a lot. We have enough K artists as it is. We do not need another.
Happy Days are here again!
When I find myself in times of trouble
Mother Mary comes to me
Speaking words of wisdom, let it go
And in my hour of darkness
She is standing right in front of me
Speaking words of wisdom, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Whisper words of wisdom, let it go
And when the broken-hearted people
Living in the world agree
There will go an answer, let it go
For though they may go parted
There is still a chance that they will see
There will go an answer, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Yeah, there will go an answer, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Whisper words of wisdom, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Ah, let it go, yeah, let it go
Whisper words of wisdom, let it go
And when the night is cloudy
There is still a light that shines on me
Shine on until tomorrow, let it go
I wake up to the sound of music
Mother Mary comes to me
Speaking words of wisdom, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Let it go, yeah, let it go
Oh, there will go an answer, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Let it go, yeah, let it go
There will go an answer, let it go
Let it go, let it go
Ah, let it go, yeah, let it go
Whisper words of wisdom, let it go
If the Dodgers package Cartaya with other prospects then I would like it to be for another prospect ranked as high or higher but plays shortstop or centerfield. Kelenic did not do anything with his 500 MLB at bats but at one time he was projected to be the Mariners center fielder ahead of Rodriguez. He is now a gamble but that is why he might now be available.
Kelenic might not be the guy for Cartaya but I don’t want to get only 3 years from the player the Dodgers get for Cartaya plus other top prospects which is all Reynolds would provide.
Is there a team out there that thinks Muncy will hit 35 home runs again? Is there a team out there that Taylor will have a bounce back year? Or is it only Dodger fans who think so?
I too am high on Dalton Rushing, I think he might turn out better than Cartaya. But the scouts say no. I’ve seen the scouts get it wrong sometimes.
I look at what the scouts say and take it in consideration, but I’m a show me guy, just like the state of Missouri.
That’s a very good lineup you have there. I’ve only talked about Bryan Reynolds being a Dodger. Like almost every day since I’ve been on this blog. Now you say. Yes they should get him and he should play Centerfield. So, now it’s okay to get Reynolds. Duh that’s what I was saying. When he wants to leave Pittsburgh. And everyone was saying Vargas is playing third and muncy 2nd base. So, now Vargas is the Leftfielder. That lineup is a good lineup. But with only Outman and Thompson as your back ups on the bench. Maybe Heyward they need a utility infielder that can play all over the infield. Brandon Solano the ex giant. He use to kill us and played all over the infield. He was with the Reds last year. It also would be nice to get a first baseman. One that can pinch hit or sometimes give Freeman a day off. You know how the Giants. They always have that guy that doesn’t play every day. But when you need a pinch hitter to come threw. The guy does someone like that on the bench. Similar to how Chase Utley was and David Freese. The Dodgers need a guy like that in the clubhouse. But I like the idea of Reynolds in LA. Agree with that.
The dissension towards Roberts is based on ignorance. To think managerial decisions are made in a vacuum is extremely short sided. The game has become much less centralized, as in game decisions have become much more reliant on statistical analysis.
The evolvement of in game strategy was accentuated when Hollywood brought forth the interactions of Billy Beane and Art Howe to the big screen at the height of the saber metric movement. While Art Howe attempted to cling on to the old adage that the lineup belonged to him, those of us that read the book “moneyball” and/or watched the movie, were exposed to the cruel reality that managers would become nothing more than leaders that execute front office strategy that is heavily reliant on statistical analysis.
In fairness to all managers tasked with the difficult job of managing egos and executing the organization’s strategy, the job has become bigger than any one man. This is why organizations invest heavily in statisticians.
If only B&P was the Dodger GM we would have won 5 WS in a row. And of course he would have hired himself as manager!
If Doc is as good as his supporters think he is, there wouldn’t be this much dissension or even conversation about it. I don’t hear any discussions about Mookie, who is also black or at least black-esque. As a matter of fact, the only person wanting to trade Mookie for Verdugo is Mark, so maybe Mark is the one who “might be racist”. 😉 Take a joke dude! I didn’t call you racist.
Anyways, if and when Doc wins a couple more rings on this team, I’ll eat my words. But, in the meantime, he still sucks. He’s been given great teams every freaking year and has 1 ring to show for it. He had back-to-back teams with 106 and 111 win seasons and huge payrolls filled with stars and lost to two 80 something win teams in consecutive postseasons. That is the definition of ineptitude.
Maybe it’s just bad luck. If that’s the case, we should hire an Irishman to manage the team. 😉 Another joke, since everyone is so sensitive about race.
Hopefully, someday soon, we can talk about baseball again and not bring up Doc when someone is talking about the roster, starting this seemingly never-ending shit show. Thanks JayB, for always bringing up the pointless argument about what a great record Doc has, the only argument you ever bring up that’s easily dispelled if you have an ounce of logic in your being. See Don Mattingly.
I’m very excited about the upcoming season and fully expect to win the division…
I think the Padres and Mets are overrated. The Padres made a big splash by signing Bogaerts, but they lost perhaps a bigger bat in Josh Bell. Tatis will be back, but will he return to greatness after recovering from shoulder and wrist injuries? And let us not forget he was busted for roids! David is right, we probably don’t man-handle them like we did last year. We’ll just have to spread those beatings around to other teams a little better this year.
The Mets spent a ton of money, mostly bringing back their own players. How much of an improvement is Verlander over deGrom? Correa pulled the rug out from under them just like he did with the Giants and now he’s a Twin again. I like him there. His big mouth is amplified a lot less playing in Minnesota where no one can hear him.
The Phillies are interesting with the addition of Trea Turner.
The Cubs signed a lot of retreads and have some pretty decent pitching. Belli is going to thrive without the extreme shifts and that might be egg on AF’s face.
The Braves were mostly quiet. Like the Dodgers, they don’t have a lot of areas to improve and let a star shortstop walk. Like the Dodgers, they have a good internal option to replace him. Yes, the Dodgers would be a better defensive team with Vargas in LF, Lux at 2B and Rojas at SS and Muncy at 3B… Maybe. But, to say that many think that Lux can’t play short is an overreach. If you think Lux as a much worse arm than Amaya, you should go to the optometrist. Both have the same scouting grade of 55, so you should possibly be a scout if you see the difference that they don’t see. The funniest thing is, Mark says AC agrees with him about Lux, but AC also said on many occasions that we should have selected Bichette over Lux. Toronto fans are predicting Bichette will be traded after back to back season of 20+ errors at the position. That’s a BIG, “Gwynn-Esque” swing and miss. In Lux We Trust!
The Cardinals get better with Wilson Contreras replacing Yadi the legend behind the plate and Pujols bat in the lineup.
The Brewers are dying a slow death now. Adames is a trade target at the deadline unless Yelich carries the team on his back and keeps them in contention behind good pitching.
These are the teams that will compete for the postseason this year. I hate to say it, but the Giants might be improved, but a lot has to go right. They’re my biggest surprise this year.
Bart C
Wade 1B
Estrada 2B
Villar 3B
Crawford SS
Outfield – Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson, Austin Slater
A lot can go right with that outfield and Estrada and Villar are two very solid young players. Bart is either a late bloomer, or a solid catcher at worst. Wade and Crawford have had great seasons in the past as have Conforto and Haniger. Joc can always launch bombs against righties and will mostly leave his glove at home this season with better outfield defenders.
The East and West will be the most competitive divisions this year, so win totals will be down for the best teams in those divisions. New schedule this year, so it will be interesting to see how less games in division will effect the standings overall.
Go Baseball!
Do.Not.Trade.Cartaya.For.Reynolds.
just dont do it. If you include him in a trade it should be for a true superstar player.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I share many of your sentiments, Ted.
I do not understand why some fans become so emotionally invested in an opinion of whether Dave Roberts or any other manager is good at their job. And I don’t understand the emotional investment in assessing the abilities of this or that player to succeed in the majors. The ad hominem attacks such as pronouncing people you disagree with as “stupid” are not helpful.
The prospect lists are all just subjective judgments, and many obviously just feed of one another. It’s rare–and refreshing–to see a list that features a surprising name.
What sort of calculus is used in these rankings, anyway?
To me there is a clear bias against older prospects such as Outman. If he was three years younger and put up the same numbers he put up in 2022, do you think he’d crack the Top 100?
I read that another late bloomer ranked as 90th prospect on BP or BA before he came up. His name is Aaron Judge.
Max Muncy was 27 when he got to the Dodgers. Not sure if he was ever a Top 100 prospect, but he certainly has outperformed plenty who were.
I’m not out in the field, just reading and looking at Youtube, but it baffles me that Outman is ranked below Busch. Both had strong numbers in 2022–and somewhat similar K/W ratio– but Outman’s OPS was significantly higher. Plus, he is a superior fielder while Busch is a work in progress. Outman, a 7th rounder, has improved year over year–and actually hit better in OKC than in Tulsa. Busch, a first rounder, had a significantly lower OPS.
As for Outman’s spectacular four-game debut, Mark pronounced him “lucky.”
Well, that’s kind of insulting. Did the Dodgers call him up because of luck? I am reminded of a famous quote: “Luck is the residue of design.” When I google it I find that is attributed to…. Branch Rickey!
Whatever his reasons, Mark has higher praise for outfielders DeLuca, Pages and Ramos than Outman. Mark is so dismissive of Outman’s success, or “luck,” that I get the impression he hope Outman fails so he can say, “Toldja!”
Well, who knows? In a few years he may be proven right. And maybe Lux really is the Dodgers centerfielder of the future! A few years ago a lot of “experts” thought 89 prospects were better Aaron Effing Judge.
Thanks for posting that video. Rushing’s swing looks good. Keeps his shoulders leveled and doesn’t have the heavy load that Lux tends to display. Very balanced approach. Wonder whether the organization will alter that to get him to lift the ball more often. I don’t know much about this kid, but he looks fundamentally sound.
There’s a little Fredy Kruger in everyone, there’s a little racist in all of us as well. Not by today’s standard definition of a racist, But it’s somewhere inside of us all. Everything ugly that’s in anyone is in everyone. Maybe we allow ourselves to be blind of that and that’s good unless you’re lying to yourself. Indians hated cowboys and vise=versa. I suppose I have more cowboy blood but I’m prouder of my Choctaw blood, besides I don’t know any Choctaw songs but probably nearly all Hank Williams songs. I’ve lived in political environments that really have no excuse for the racism that was there heavily shouted to a point standing against that racism would be dangerous. But by today’s definition it’s not very likely someone will call me a racist. So cowboys beware, don’t start anything!
*sigh*
So much for the kumbaya vibe of yesterday. Oh well.
Ok, so just to redirect away from the “everybody-is-racist” talk (because even I get tired of arguing about politics), I do think I’m coming around to the idea of Lux at second. The elimination of the shift is a good point, and watching Lux basically lob throws to first from SS on those YouTube vids in contrast to Amaya’s darts was revealing.
Rojas isn’t the offensive caliber SS you’d want on a team with WS aspirations, so you’d better hope everything goes according to plan and everyone else produces (things rarely go according to plan). He might still be a utility guy with Lux at 2nd. Don’t know.
And for the record, I did email Mark yesterday, but it wasn’t to tell him he was right about Roberts. I wanted to apologize for calling his opinions and the opinions of others “dumb.” It comes across as condescending and arrogant and I should tone down my tone.
Mark: Please email me your contact info. Thank you.
I read that the Dodgers could lower their salary total for this yr by picking up the options on Taylor and Muncie. If the amount for their options is lower than what they are getting paid, which I assume the writer knew, it sounds like it would help. Not by much, “but every dollar counts”.
Is that a feasable move?
Will Smith is one of the top 2-3 catchers in baseball with maybe the best bat and you’re telling me that he’s gonna play maybe 1-2 times a week against left handed pitching. That’s NOT happening this year
Part of Last years 111 win was beating up on SD. So I don’t see that happening again this year. So I am predicting 95-100 wins. Just an opinion of course, no way to say how anyone will perform this year. Of course easy prediction is that Muncy will have a better year.