Never doubt statistics. This is especially true when looking at minor-league players. You can always predict for a certainty how a player will perform in Major League Baseball by looking at what they did in the minor leagues. We don’t need scouts, GMs, Baseball America, or MLB Pipeline, and we don’t need any stinking Keith Law.. All we need are statistics. Statistics are King – they are God-like. Statistics will never let you down. You can win any argument with statistics. We don’t need Spring Training… we need more statistics! Some of you are skewed toward James Outman and away from Mike Busch. Why? Statistics! Mike Bush’s batting average in MLB is .000, while James Outman’s is .462. Statistics rule! NEVER DOUBT STATISTICS!
If you think any of the above is true and not pure sarcasm, then stop reading this and check yourself into a mental hospital immediately! In Cody Bellinger’s first two years in the minors, he hit 4 HRs. In his third year, he hit 30 (in High A Ball), but then he “regressed” in 2016 to hit 26 (mostly in AA). He only played 21 games at AAA, before becoming the Rookie of the Year in 2017 AND MVP in 2019. Who saw that coming? Not the stats! Actually, I saw it coming because I watched him a lot. I said he was ready in Spring Training, but just about everyone disagreed with me.
In 2012, Corey Seager hit .309 in Rookie Ball. He then regressed in 2013 to hit .269 in A Ball. Then he proceeded to hit .181 in the AFL. In 2015, he hit.278 at AAA, and then the next season (2016), he hit .308 as a rookie and was the Rookie of the Year for the Dodgers. Progress is not incremental, and I can provide hundreds of cases like these, but my point is: If you are relying on stats to predict how well a minor league player will do in the majors, you are using about 30% of the available information, and I would love to bet money with you. I will win 7 out of 10 times. I will own you!
You can look at Diego Cartayas’ statistics and this he has regressed, but I challenge anyone who has watched him AND has a keen eye for talent to say that! You will be laughed out of town—some of you like James Outman. I do too, but I like all Dodger players. However, I do see a similarity between him and Joc Pederson. Joc is really a 4th outfielder (part-time LF’er), which is exactly what I predicted. I wish Joc were still on the team, but he should never take an AB against a LHP. I can’t say for sure, but Outman may fall into that category, too… still he could be a very valuable player for the Dodgers.
I have watched Mike Busch, James Outman, Miguel Vargas, Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, and many other Dodgers Prospects extensively. I look at the statistics but don’t let them cloud my opinions. I consider them and also consider what my eyes tell me. My eyes tell me this:
- Miguel Vargas is a very good player… borderline elite – The statistics confirm it!
- Gavin Stone is MLB-ready ( he needs to throw more strikes, but that will come) – The stats confirm it!
- Mike Busch is worth a shot as a Schwarberesque player – The stats are conflicting, but the swing is real.
- James Outman has the CF job- It is his to lose – The stats are strong for the past year… beyond that?
- Bobby Miller is a tick away from the MLB – Statistics be damned!
- Ryan Pepiot – He has shown that he is ready. End of discussion.
- Andy Pages – He is close. Closer than you might think.
- Diego Cartaya – I think he could play in MLB this year. He probably won’t, but it’s possible.
The reason you can’t use minor-league stats is that you don’t know what the coaching staff is working on with that particular player. You don’t know their work ethic, their dietary habits, their determination, and their resilience. You don’t know how they play up or down to their competition. So, you listen or read what other baseball people say about that player. You see if there is a consensus of opinion. You watch them on MiLB.TV or in person (if possible). You look at YouTube or other video sources. Occasionally, you will learn something you did not know that connects the dots. For instance, I could not understand why Landon Knack (who has four pitches and incredible stuff) could not be way more successful than he was, while I heard that he is essentially lazy and undisciplined. He doesn’t work out hard, and his diet is allegedly crap! It’s possible he is unfixable unless he changes his mindset!
Then I read every talent evaluation source that I can, and finally, I add in the stats. But, I think at least 70% of how I form an opinion is not derived from the stats. I am not saying that stats are not useful – I am saying you should use your eyes and brain more than the stats. The game is played by people… not stats. For example, many of you are critical of Chris Taylor because he hit .221 with a .304 OB% last season and struck out 160 times, while OPS’ing .677. His strikeouts are always going to be there, but since he became a Dodger and they “fixed” his swing, here are his OPS:
- 2017 – .850
- 2018 – .775
- 2019 – .795
- 2020 – .842
- 2021 – .782
Why do so many of you conclude that what he did last year is the same as what he will do this year? Let’s look past the stats. What was different about last year, which was the worst of his Dodger career? Well, he had surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow during the off-season and also had some nagging injuries throughout the year. It seems likely that his arms may have affected him just as Max Muncy’s arm affected him. By the way, I expect CT3 and Max Muncy to both come out with a chip on their shoulder and show they still have it. CT3 will hit .270+ and be around 20 HR (he has hit 20 twice), as he will benefit from the ban of the shift. I also expect Max to OPS .850 to .900 and hit his usual 35 HRs.
Never stop using stats, but don’t rely on them – there is always “The Rest of the Story,” as Paul Harvey used to say. BTW, Jason Heyward also has a chip the size of Chicago on his shoulder (and so does Cody Bellinger). I am of the opinion that you can throw the stats out the window for both Heyward and Trayce Thompson… and maybe Yusneil Diaz, as RVS and Company re-tool their swings.
Rants & Raves
- If you believe Andrew Friedman is serious about not getting under the Lux Tax Cap in 2023, then you are very naive. Of course, he is going to deny it because if he acknowledges it, other GMs will demand more collateral in trades. He is waiting to see what opens up, what injuries happen, and how certain [players develop. It is possible that he won’t be able to do it, but “you can bet your sweet bippy” that he will try.
- It may be nothing, but now Rojas has signed an extension (which expires at the same time as CT3’s), and that could possibly make Taylor expendable. So we wait.
Discussion (10)
Disagree, not disagreeable
We all have differing opinions on who they should keep and who should be sent down. In order to field the strongest team possible, they are going to have to see who plays well during spring training. Vargas and Outman are about the closest thing to being locked in on the roster as they can be. Vargas is going to have to play himself off of the team. They expect big things from the kid. Outman is a question mark offensively, but very good defensively. If he hits, he is making the team, if not, they have enough options to let him season a little bit more at AAA. Busch has an outside chance of making the team, but I believe they want him playing every day somewhere, and my guess is AAA finding himself a position. If someone doesn’t do well, he is the first man up. Forget trades for now. They are going to evaluate what they have on the roster before they make any trades. And they won’t make a trade just to make one. If they can improve the team with a deal, then they will make that move. And do not expect any other team to not try to milk the best package for the player they are trying to get. No matter who it is, they are going to cost the Dodgers some of their prospect assets.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed former Philadelphia Phillies utilityman Luke Williams on a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to MLB Spring Training. Williams can play every single position on the baseball diamond, aside from pitcher and catcher. and did for the Phillies.
Harrison Bader hits lefties well that could be someone we could trade with if we need a centerfielder that can hit lefties. I remember that guy when he played for the Cardinals played all out and hustles. Nit an everyday palyers but a platoon player yes. That’s what the Dodgers need are bats in hitting sidutations do you really feel good with Taylor or Thompson as pinch hitters. Outman if he can hit both lefties and righties will be the centerfielder if he can’t the dodgers will be in trouble if it’s Thompson as there every day starter. What’s funny is back in the 80s and 90s. We never looked at how the starters hit lefties or righties. They were just the nine starters. And then you had your bench players. So is are outfield of Taylor Thompson Betts the starters. You look at all the teams in the west and go hmm. The Padres probable one Giants second Dodgers third DBacks Fourth and then Rockies fifth. But if you put Taylor Outman Betts it’s very close to the Padres.
I would love to see Trayce Thompson have a good season.
Same with Outman, Heyward, Taylor, and Busch.
Diaz too, and 25 other non-roster invitees.
It’s going to be a battle and we are going to see lots of players who may look bad early…
In another week, it all starts. May the best players make the team.
Barring injury, there will likely be 13 position players.
Barnes, Smith, Freeman, Lux, Rojas, Vargas, Freeman, Muncy, Betts, Martinez, and Taylor are locks.
That is 11 players. There are 20 players competing for two spots.
My guess is Outman is the 12th and that Heyward, Thompson, and Busch are the final 3 for that last spot. Devin Mann is a darkhorse.
Mark I think I’m one of the people you are talking about. First of all I apologize in advance to you for this post and I apologize for possibly accusing you about me being one of the people you are talking about. But if I am one of the people you are talking about I’m going to explain things.
1 I don’t rely only on stats about minor leaguers, yes mostly but I take in consideration what the experts say too. For example I made my own top 10 list this off season like I do every off season, but this year I included a number 11 and that was Andy Pages because of what I said in the first sentence. The significant drop in stats Andy Pages had from A+ ball to AA ball and the stats he ended up with in AA ball would have made me drop him from my list entirely if I used stats only, but I took in consideration what the experts say about him. I already explained this before. Also if I relied on stats only, my top 11 list overall would look different.
2 What you said about Corey Seager and his stats from rookie ball, A ball, and the AFL has nothing to do with my opinion about a minor leaguer. I also explained this before. The first test to me is AA ball, the next test is AAA ball and I consider what the experts say.
3 The experts got it wrong about Will Smith early in his career in the minors. I got it right about Will Smith because of my first test that I talked about in number 2. This is an example of why I say the experts get it wrong sometimes.
4 If you are talking about me being skewed towards Outman and away from Busch it’s because I’m talking about this year (who’s ready and who’s not), not anything past this year. I already explained this before.
5 You mentioned Cartaya and if that has anything to do about my top 11 list I’ll explain. My top 6 are guys that at least had a full season in AA ball (remember my first test) the rest are guys that haven’t. I ranked Cartaya number 8 behind Rushing, meaning I almost ranked him at the top at number 7 among the lower level guys and that’s because I took in consideration what the experts say about Cartaya, but I like Rushing better, just my opinion. Speaking about Cartaya and where I ranked him, I got a lot of backlash from people here and one person actually got offended and that’s weird. Offended about that? There’s other things that are worse that justify being offended. By the way I kept your name anonymous and I apologize for bringing this up but it had to do with me having to explain something. Also when I make my top 10 prospect list next off season and every off season going forward I’ll keep my mouth shut about it here.
6 I agree with you about Taylor and Muncy, maybe not the exact numbers you gave about your prediction, but I agree about your overall point.
7 You brought up Heyward and Thompson. I don’t think anyone can fix Heyward enough to justify him being the everyday starting LF and to a lesser extent Thompson. I had this discussion with someone and he thinks because Heyward has a chip on his shoulder he will have a good year and good enough to be the starting LF. I pointed to Heyward’s career stats and mention that he sucks against LHP and is pretty average against RHP so I don’t think he has a chance to be the starting LF even if he’s better this year than his career stats. Question: Which one (me or him) have the better odds of being right, the chip on the shoulder theory or the statistics theory? And this exact theory vs theory comes up a lot here. I also mentioned if Heyward is not the starting LF and is on the bench as a pinch hitter along with Thompson (who doesn’t hit LHP good either), along with Rojas and Barnes. Who is going to pinch hit against a LHP if that situation comes up? To me that means both Heyward and Thompson shouldn’t be on the team together, it’s gotta be one or the other and someone that hits LHP good needs to be on the bench as a pinch hitter. By the way I kept your name anonymous too.
Wish Lakers would trade Lebron to Mavericks too, or to Nets. Or who cares.
Lebron is officially POed. Nets traded Irving to the Mavericks. Lebron really wanted him on the Lakers.
I 100% agree, Mark, that in theory Chris Taylor could be available via trade.
It is a well known fact that 57.433% of statistics are made up on the fly.
There is the Posey rule. There is the Utley rule. And now there is the Lux tax. He is in good company.
Joc is now mostly a DH. His defense fell off considerably in the second half last year. At the same time his line last year was .274 .353 .521 .874. A fourth outfielder typically doesn’t do that well. Against lefty pitchers his line was .245 .333 .408 .741. He looks far worse against lefties than his stats say.
Great stuff Mark. I have seen guys rake at AAA and then flop like a dying fish at the major league level. Case in point Billy Ashley. Billy Ashley hit .345 with 37 bombs and 105 RBIs in 1994 at Albuquerque. He came up to the Dodgers for 1995 and hit 8 bombs and hit a paltry .237. He never hit double figure homers his entire MLB life which was relatively short in LA and Boston. He would hit double figure homers in the minors 4 more times but never more than 15. His career BA in the majors was .233 and he had 28 homers. At the end of yesterday’s post, someone, Johnny Gentle I think, said that Rojas should play all over the field and make Taylor the everyday left fielder. No thanks. Taylor flourishes in his utility role, and while he plays a solid left field, he played less than half of the Dodgers games at the position last season. He has never played more than the 80 he played out there last season in any other year. The most times he has played the outfield in any season was 96 games in 2017 and those were split evenly between left and center. He and Heyward have very similar numbers against RHP with Heyward a slight edge in the average and power numbers.