Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make
Many years ago, there was once a first baseman who, three times in his career, had driven in over 100 runs. His career batting average was .281, and he has a .341 OB%. It was in a time when Home Runs were few, but he was almost always in double digits. In his eleven years with…
Many years ago, there was once a first baseman who, three times in his career, had driven in over 100 runs. His career batting average was .281, and he has a .341 OB%. It was in a time when Home Runs were few, but he was almost always in double digits. In his eleven years with his first team, he played 1,488 games – That’s an average of 135 games a year, which was back in the time when they played 154 games… not 162. At any rate, on June 2, 1925, this first baseman asked out of the lineup because of a headache. That was the end of his run as the Yankees’ First Baseman because Lou Gehrig took over for Wally Pipp and never looked back.
Gehrig is chiefly known for playing in 2,130 consecutive games for the Yankees, a magnificent streak long thought to have been unbreakable until Cal Ripken, Jr. came along. Gehrig wore uniform No. 4, because he hit behind Babe Ruth, the third batter in the Yankees’ lineup.
My point is you never know what is going to happen. We all know that progress is not linear. We also know that no matter how much you spend to stack a team so that you think you can win a championship, it does not always happen that way. Are you listening, Steve Cohen? The Mets loaded up last offseason and spent $330 Million to have a 50 -55 record as of today and reside in 4th place behind the Miami Marlins. Now remember that the Mets have a $330.6 Million dollar payroll, while the Miami Marlins have a $129.8 Million Dollar Payroll! The Meets cannot finish ahead of a team that has $200 Million Dollars less in payroll. Let that one sink in. Money doesn’t buy Championships, but most of you want to spend, spend, spend and trade, trade, trade!
One poster made a good point yesterday:
Here is a list of Rule 5 available Dodgers prospects:
–Dodgerram
Landon Knack
· Nick Frasso
· Kyle Hurt
· Yeiner Fernandez
· Kendall Williams
· Edgardo Henriquez
· Hunter Feduccia
· Devin Mann
· José Ramos
· Alec Gamboa
· Gus Varland
· Carlos Duran
Assuming the Dodgers will not keep Kike, Rosario, Lynn and their expiring contracts around for next season that gives us three open spots on the 40 men roster to protect 3 guys out of the group above.
Frasso and Knack probably are no brainers to protect. That leaves one open spot.
IMHO it would be better to use some of those guys in a trade package or two to get some help for the stretch run.
Better to overpay a little by including some of the above mentioned prospects than to lose them for nothing.
I would not automatically assume that Kike, Rosario, and Lynn will be offered contracts. Maybe one will. Additionally, teams that pick up these players under Rule 5 must keep them all season or return them to the Dodgers. That is what happened to Gus Varland this year when Milwaukee took him. With the expanded playoffs, more teams are in the running and cannot afford to keep a player who is still learning his trade. So, under the new playoff format, there are fewer Rule 5 picks.
However, here is the kicker: How do other teams value your players, and do they want them? For example, I would give the Mets the above list of players and say, “Pick any seven and give me Justin Verlander and pay $30 million of his contract.” The Mets would not do that. So, you have to have a trade partner. Additionally, the Dodgers have the offseason to include some of those players in trades.
Now, back to my Wally Pipp example: Sometimes, players step up when we least expect it. Maybe Michael Grove and Emmet Sheehan, who have not flourished as starters, could be unhittable in the bullpen. Throughout this season, many of us have been ready to throw away Jason Heyward, Max Muncy, David Peralta, and others, only to be proven wrong. Sometimes, you have to have faith that players whom you have trusted in the past will pull out of their funks. Think, Gonsolin, Urias, et al.
If Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes made a trade or trades at today’s 6 PM deadline, then I am fine, but I am also fine if they don’t. Making trades is not a surefire way to win. Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don’t make! I have seen that time and again!
Discussion (163)
Disagree, not disagreeable
So what did AF mean when he said he will be ‘aggressive?
Bickford and Kolarek traded to the Mets
No idea what we get back, but I”ll assume it’s not Lindor or Pete Alonso
Not good enough AF! Just like your team
Flaherty to O’s!
Cease not coming per NIghtengale
I need to go back on the July 30 post. Jim Gilliam needs to definitely go on the Dodger Legends walkway. He defines the two words: baseball player. The ultimate team player. Great baseball mind and instincts. He was VERY instrumental in Maury’s 104 SB’s in 1962. Rookie of the Year in 1953. From around 1962, until he retired and became a coach, Gilliam always started out the year not being a regular. And, then crunch time would arrive, and, Jim Gilliam was back in the line up, and was a valuable part of the drive to the pennant. Remember 1965? Wes Parker hit #2 behind Maury at the beginning of the year; Gilliam got back in line up and hit second and played third; and, made the great play at 3rd to save Sandy’s shutout in the series clinching win. Gilliam would have become a manager, no doubt. Please Dodgers, put #19 in the Dodger Legends.
I will go out with a bang and say we get Dylan Cease last minute.
Think Mark might be right. Tried to get ERod didnt work out , we tried. Get Kersh back, see what striker has and let the kids roll
looks like Orioles getting Flaherty
So Phillies get Lorenzen one nothing guy!! So you mean to say we didn’t have anything better to offer
I’m glad Rodriguez is not a Dodger. He got his $70m and obviously doesn’t care about winning. He’s rather just cash his checks on a crap team with no pressure on him at all.
I’m all for players with character. Family guys. People who have integrity. But I also want players who have a drive to win. Above all else. He’s obviously not that guy.
It’s 2:37 pm, California time. Rodrigues exercised his no trade clause; not coming to Dodgers.
Here’s hoping Kershaw comes back strong and Urias removes his head from his posterior.
Wouldn’t second guess if Dodgers made no more moves.
“The Lake Wobegon effect
The characterization that “all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average” has been used to describe a real and pervasive human tendency to overestimate one’s achievements and capabilities in relation to others.”
In other words, Dodgers’ prospects are better than other teams’ because they are the Dodgers. The problem with this is that it doesn’t hold up.
I know that it’s early, but look at all of the rookies who have received playing time this year and look at how they have done.
Using Baseball Reference WAR as a barometer, James Outman is the #8 Dodger in WAR (1.6). Miguel Vargas has .2, Michael Busch -.2, Johnny Deluca is .3, Jonny Hernandez -.1
Of the pitchers, Michael Grove is -.9, Bobby Miller is .8, Emmet Sheehan -.1, Andre Jackson -.1, Gavin Stone -.8, Nick Robertson -.4.
I read here regularly that most or all of these guys are can’t miss prospects. There is no evidence of that yet. There are glimmers of potential, but little realized potential as yet.
If these prospects were major league ready, the Dodgers would not have to trade for the likes of Lance Lynn, Ahmed Rosario, or Joe Kelly, none of whom have played well this year. The fact that the Dodgers have made these trades shows that the team is not yet ready to rely on these prospects. The results thus far support that the Dodgers are unable to rely on their rookies, with the possible exception of Outman and Miller.
No one here can predict which of these prospects, if any, will pan out for the Dodgers in 2024 or sometime thereafter. The Dodgers, when planning for the future, will consider this I’m sure.
10:10 PM ET
Athletics (30-77)
Dodgers (59-45)
SP Ken Waldichuk L
2-6 6.38 ERA
SPLance Lynn R
6-9 6.47 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
2B Amed Rosario R
3B Max Muncy L
DH Chris Taylor R
CF James Outman L
LF E. Hernandez R
SS Miguel Rojas R
78° Wind 10 mph Out
Maybe sometimes the best trades are the ones that get cancelled by a player with a no-trade clause…
Ok only a little while to go. If no deals then we ‘keep fingers crossed’. No reliable starting pitchers , plus Mookie, Smith and JDM injured.
Rest assured, Andrew Friedman will not make a trade simply because we might think he needs to.
Remember the title of this blog today!
I think we either do nothing or AF pulls off something big out of left field. I don’t see him overpaying for a #4/5 starter. He may have to go big to extract value.
That description of these guys seems correct to me, it’s a question for you because I don’t understand it considering the category of team that is DODGERS.
From 2013-2022 of 573 prospects traded only 62 went on to become impact players or contributors 11%. Only 3%, 17 players became impact players. Make a deal AF! And 29% never played a day in the big leagues.
ERod wouldve been nice but AF will pivot and add. Overpay for Cease ?
Price just went up for Keller and Cease
Less than an hour to go, and we can all stop this foolish banter!
😉
Why did idiot Verlander and asshole Rodríguez prefer another team than the Dodgers?
I hope that one day we will face each other sportingly and take revenge for this affront, (at least for me)
Apparently the Dodgers had a deal for Rodriguez but he refused to remove his no trade clause.
Per Jeff Passan