Predictably, the Dodger fandom is restless. By the time Spring Training started, many fans had pronounced the Dodger’s Off-Season as a colossal failure, and some even said that the Dodgers would not even make the playoffs. When that was proven false, the same fans are now clamoring for the Dodgers to make some epic, “gut-the-farm” trades. Trayce Thompson is on the IL, and his return is far from certain. He was needed to hit LHP, which he could not do. Fans have been calling for Chris Taylor to go away for some time now, but in the past seven days, CT3 is hitting .333 with a .455 OB%. He is tied with James Outman for 5th on the team in home runs with 9 (in 50 fewer at-bats than James) and is one home run away from Freddie Freeman. CT3 is starting to look like he did in 2021… not like he looked in 2022. Yes, he is going to strike out, but if he can keep that BA and OPS trending up, then he is an asset.
On December 17, 2022, I suggested this:
“The Dodgers could do worse than have CT3 at SS. He was coming off elbow surgery last year, and without the shift, I look for him to have a better year offensively. He’s not Ozzie Smith, but he’s solid and has a good arm that should be better a year removed from surgery. Let’s not forget that in 2021 CT3 had 507 ABs (that’s “Regular Status”) with 20 HR, and 13 SBs (caught once), with a .254 BA and .344 OB%. Why could his bad year in 2022 not be related to his elbow surgery and rehab? The more I think about it, the more I see CT3 as the SS in 2023. CT3 would be a solid choice at SS. Lux might be Gold Glove at 2B, Freeman is close at 1B, and CT3 ain’t a chump. Max Muncy is merely average. I can live with that.”
Well, Andrew Friedman was determined to have options at SS, even though he proclaimed that Gavin Lux was going to be the SS – I did not believe it them… and I do not believe it now. But, he traded for Miguel Rojas who is as advertised – a defensive wizard! He gave up Jacob Amaya who had no future in LA and I am OK with that. Next year, Gavin Lux will be back and what AF has planned for him, I have no clue, but he is entering the prime time of his career.
I admire what Jason Heyward has accomplished, but I can’t shake this feeling that in his next at-bat, he could lose it as quickly as he recovered it. Maybe that’s just me. He has been a boom against RHP, and now that Trayce Thompson is gone, Jonny DeLuca was called up to do one thing (at least right now): MASH LHP! For those of you who think that is easy and that if you can do it in the minors, you can do it in the majors, you have no idea how incredibly hard this is.
Before the season, the stats said that Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Jonny LeDuca, Michael Busch, and Gavin Stone were ready and that Bobby Miller was not. Stone was not ready, but Miller was. Outman and Vargas are works in progress and will have the next six weeks (as will JonnyD) to show what they have. Busch might have headed to the mountains, as we have not heard from him in a while.
David Peralta has worked his BA up to .242 and should keep it going North. If he can get back to that .285 BA/..800 OPS mark, he will be an asset. He is there just to hit RHP. Personally, I think David Peralta is near the end of his career. He is coming off back surgery after hitting 12 home runs in the first half of 2022 and none in the second half. He is in great shape, but I can attest that the mental part of back surgery recovery is as difficult as the physical part. I look for him to get better and better and maybe be a guy who hits 15 HR after the All-Star Break.
It All Boils Down to the Rookies
Bobby Miller, James Outman, Miguel Vargas, and Jonny DeLuca are the linchpins of the Dodgers’ 2023 season. As they go, the Dodgers will go! In case that is a term you are not familiar with, other words for “linchpin” are essential, foundational, keystone, mainstay, pillar, and anchor.
Bobby Miller – It has been a long time since a rookie pitcher has burst upon the Dodgers and pitched like Bobby Miller. It might go back to Fernando. I have not checked, but not even Clayton had this kind of success. Progress is not linear, and with his four pitches, 100 MPH Fastball, and dang-good control, he should stay in the rotation… even if that is at #5.
James Outman – His early success and late troubles are like reading a different book. He is dangerously close to being sent back to AAA, but the Dodgers need him and are going to give him a lot of leeway! I have always been of the opinion that if you can do it once, you can do it again! He HAS to cut down on the strikeouts. I have said it was unsustainable, and it is. MLB pitchers have discovered certain pitches he cannot hit. The Dodgers are working feverously with him to do so. The conclusion of this has not been written, but I am hopeful that he can take the steps necessary to stay in CF for years to come. This is the biggest challenge of his life! His defense is not in question.
Miguel Vargas – Miguel Vargas’ defense is also not in question, but his two early injuries have made him less aggressive at the plate! His .744 OPS gives us hope, but he needs to deliver. If he can get his OPS at about .800, then he will stay. If it drops, it might be time to head for the mountains of Busch!
Jonny DeLuca – He is supposed to be a Lefty Killer. All we can do is watch and see!
If things go as planned (and they always do – Ha, Ha!), then this is the Dodger’s best lineup:
- C – Will Smith
- 1B – Freddie Freeman
- 2B – Miguel Vargas
- SS – Mookie Betts
- 3B – Max Muncy (he has worked hard to make himself an “above-average” 3B)
- LF – Platoon – David Peralta/Chris Taylor
- CF – James Outman
- RF – Platoon – Jason Heyward/Jonny DeLuca
That lineup looks good on paper… but they don’t play the game on paper. So, we wait for the next six weeks to see if the Dodgers will make a move or two at the Trade Deadline (which is August 1st this year). By then, they may have an idea if May and/or Buehler will be back, as well as Alex Reyes, Daniel Hudson, Ryan Pepiot, Jimmy Nelson, Blake Treinen, and JP Feyereisen. Some will, and some won’t. Now, we watch and learn…
Heading to Cincy for the game tonight. The Catman can!
Discussion (45)
Disagree, not disagreeable
On a scale of one to ten I give Roberts a5. Not good, not bad, just ok. Last night was absolutely horrible. A 5 runn lead in past years, we never lose. Bad managing, bad pitching! 8 runs and we lose? May it rain tonight!
Dave Roberts confirmed to reporters before Tuesday’s game that Urias is planning on returning for the weekend series. Maybe this will be Thor’s last game as a starter for the Dodgers. I would start Michael Grove again.
So maybe the Dodgers should have held on to Luke Raley, now a platoon cog in the mighty Rays.
He’s got a .945 OPS now with 11 HRs.
What an embarrassing Dodger game! Too bad Mark had to be there in person to witness it.
Meanwhile, I see Craig Kimbrel struck out the side to save a Philly 1-0 lead yesterday v Detroit. He’s been on a tear since his opening scare.
For what it’s worth, outside of Phillips, our bullpen flat out stinks. There is absolutely no way we can win any playoff series with these guys. We will need at a minimum 4 new bodies to replace the 4 stiffs coming out of the pen. I know we have a few guys coming back from injury so maybe that helps some….assuming they can stay healthy.
Doc did an awful job tonight. Reds kept chipping away, got to say this for that team, they are young and scrappy. D-Backs now in first place. Offense was not the problem, the pitching was. Ferguson hitting the Reds batter with 2 strikes on him was unforgivable. But don’t forget, Gonsolin was handed a three-run lead and immediately gave it up. Just a bad performance all around. Muncy’s errors did not help, my question is on that ground ball to third that he emailed over Freddies, head, why didn’t he just run to third and tag the base???????????
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8114SPt/
Headline: EIGHT IS NOT ENOUGH – Doc Fiddles while Ferguson Flails- Dodger Reliever gives new meaning to “walk-off”.
Can Mike’s boy wonder, miracle kid AF fix this mess?
Doc says it was very apparent that Ferguson was all over the place and didn’t have it
He says you gotta take responsibility talking about Ferguson. Doesn’t mention anything about taking responsibility himself for letting him stay in there or bringing him out in the first place when he had Miller in the bull pen
I will give him credit for letting his pitchers Have it four not not living up to their capability.
Maybe he was celebrating that he didn’t make an error for a change.
n one of those marijuana trades that Bradley proposes please pack Graterol, Bickfort, Vesia and Ferguson, while they have any value. How many years have these and other bastards been in the Dodgers system? they will improve.
The truth is I feel like shit for this humiliating defeat against a shitty team (AAA)
It is preferable to see a youthful and fresh team win or lose like our executioner today, than this bunch of guys who no longer gelled to be in the Big Show.
This pitching staff is in a shambles! Horrible performance!
Ferguson has been lousy against RH hitters all year. With three rightys coming up in the 9th, he should have never been out there. Doc had Miller, and Robertson available. This is simply bad managing.
Since the May and Urias injuries, the Dodgers have been a poor team. They’ve gone 7 wins, 10 losses over their last 17 games.
You just can’t lose this game. And now we got Syndergaard tomorrow.
Lose ugly.
The personnel hasn’t changed much, but the Dodgers’ bullpen has gone from being a strength to a weakness.
Terrible management.
Has to be the biggest disappointing loss of the year.
I don’t usually criticize doc, but even Stevie Wonder could see that Ferguson didn’t have it
How many runs ahead will some of the Dodgers relievers have this season? This idiot from Ferguson is scared shitless in the ninth, who’s more responsible? who does not execute? or who puts it to close the game? At least for me it is totally incomprehensible that a team like ours walks with such miseries in relief.
Leadoff walks will bite a pitcher in the ass every time. Caleb is not a closer and that experiment should be halted right now. Say what you will but the poor roster construction is starting to show.
Graterol comes off the mound like he did, his job, with that pump fist to the sky. HA….HA
Just a little too full of himself wouldn’t do you say?
Hurry back Daniel Hudson, be a surprise Giles, Montgomery, Brasier. Dodger BP is not good and reinforcements are needed ASAP.
We just got Graterol’d again. It’s to the point where you can only use him if you have big run cushion.
Dodgers sign Kole Calhoun and Mike Montgomery to minor league contracts. Montgomery is a left handed reliever.
Gonsolin’s velo down in this game – not encouraging
Tony’s falling back into his old self, not trusting his stuff.
Got himself in a position to win, but it was ugly. Syndergaardesque
Wow, and on an 0-2 pitch too
Sometimes the best moves AF makes are the one’s he doesn’t. Rangers are losing the two best years of deGroms deal. Older pitchers and long term deals are usually a mistake. Let’s see what AF does with Julio, especially with such a huge Latino Dodger fan base.
Texas pitcher Jacob deGrom to have Tommy John surgery. Figure they will be yet another team looking for pitching help.
A couple of thoughts:
1 – Miguel Vargas is not yet a good MLB 2B. He doesn’t pass the eyeball test. Additionally, of the 120 guys who have played 2B this year, Vargas rates 69th in runs saved/year per Baseball Reference.com and 39th in range factor/game. (The best 2B on the Dodgers is apparently Mookie Betts – who knew?) His dWAR is .2 thus far and his oWAR is .7.
He might be good some day but not yet.
2 – The Dodgers have a few negative bWAR players – Barnes and Thompson. Guys with negative oWAR – Barnes, Peralta, Rojas. On the pitching side, negative WAR players include Almonte, Bickford, Grove, Jackson, Stone, Syndergaard, and Vesia.
3 – Max Muncy is 3rd in MLB in errors at 3B with 6 in 52 games. Vargas is tied for 4th at 2B with 4 after 53 games. Rojas has 3 in 36 games at SS. I thought before the season that infield defense would be an issue – it is.
4 – All Dodger fans know the biggest problems right now are SS, right-handed hitting OF, back end of the rotation, and bullpen. There is hope in sight for the ‘pen, as several guys are coming off of the DL eventually. Syndergaard needs not to start for the Dodgers. Miller might well stick, but it’s only been 3 starts. I thought that Grove looked good (except when Bauer was up) but that game looked like an outlier compared to all of his other games over the past 2 years. I don’t expect May back this year. That leaves the Dodgers with the suddenly-underwhelming Urias and the oft-injured Kershaw and Gonsolin. Yeah, they’re in first right now, but if you aren’t at least a little worried then you have your rose-colored glasses on.
7:10 PM ET
Dodgers (35-25) 1st place NL West tied with Arizona
Reds (27-33) 3rd place NL Central 5.5GB
SP Tony Gonsolin R
3-1 1.77 ERA 35.2 IP 25 K
SP Luke Weaver R
1-2 5.36 ERA 45.2 IP 42 K
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Martinez R
LF D. Peralta L
CF J. Heyward L
2B M. Vargas R
SS Miguel Rojas R
Partly-cloudy-day
18% Precipitation
82° Wind 7 mph Out
Robertson called up and Scott optioned back to AAA. This will be the 24 year old’s first MLB action.
1) Urias
2) Kershaw
3) Cease/Burns
4) Gonsolin
5) Miller/May
Buehler in the Pen
It’s been great to see Bobby Miller do so well since he was called up, but maybe the Fernando comparisons are a little premature.
I understand there’s fanboy euphoria over his success, but you do realize that he won’t keep this up, correct? In April a lot of us (myself included) were ready to predict Outman as this year’s ROY. How’d that turn out?
Miller struggled in the minors. Why? Do you think his command issues are suddenly fixed at the MLB level? Maybe. Doubtful. I hope.
The Dodgers have only two objectives for this regular season: 1. make the playoffs (you don’t even have to win the division. In fact, it’s probably better if you don’t have a layoff between series. You lose your hitting timing). 2. Make the playoffs without players getting injured or worn out.
Miller will continue to play even if he struggles, and Thor will probably continue to play in spite of his struggles. Pepiot will play after the ASB. Grove will get some starts. Kershaw might get a phantom back injury at some point that warrants a vacay. Gonsolin will have a sore arm sometime in July or August that will need IL stint so he’s fresh for September.
You’ll want a solid and fresh four man rotation come playoff time. I’m thinking:
1. Urias
2. Kershaw
3. Gonsolin
4. May or Bobby Miller
Buehler will probably wind up in the pen, though there’s a chance he’s the fourth if May can’t play or Miller isn’t ready (Dodger management prefer vets for the playoffs, so Miller is still a bit of a longshot).
The trade market is so distorted with so little supply and so much demand that I don’t really see that happening. Then again, if the Dodgers want to match up with the Braves, they need another arm. The Braves finally got Soroka back after several years. He was their budding ace in 19. Fried and Wright will be on the IL for a while but will likely be back by the playoffs.
Not sure where you got your info about Pepiot being near a return. He hasn’t even picked up a ball yet. No way he’s back before the All Star game and maybe a long time after that. At least that’s what I’ve heard.
Okay, it’s June. That means gloom in SoCal. In the sky and in the stadium.
So far, the Dodgers are doing well. Arizona is a bit of a surprise. All eyes were on San Diego.
But it’s way too early to focus on what the Dodgers should do in July. Availability and cost have to be factored in as well as potential trade partners. It would be nice to pick up another solid bat, a starting pitcher and maybe a bullpen piece. But acquiring all three would be costly.
Miguel Vargas looks good at times, bad other times. His real issue is inconsistency, but isn’t that to be expected? Same with James Outman. Still like both players.
As to Chris Taylor, I am tired of watching him strike out with runners in scoring position. He should be better. He tends to swing from the heels. I find it interesting that both Orel and Nomar pointed out the Dodgers need to make more contact. Yes, the power is there and they are scoring runs by putting the ball in the seats. JD Martinez is a great signing.
Just when you think the bullpen is in great shape they blow a couple of games.
Maybe everything becomes more apparent at the end of June.
But one thing, the Dodgers need to have a healthy rotation. That’s the potential Achilles heal.
But the Dodgers will get Julio back shortly and Ryan Pepiot is near a return so maybe the Dodgers are okay. Gavin Stone looks a year away. If nothing else to regain his confidence. There were positives about Michael Grove’s outings. Then there is Noah. Hope for the best, but it doesn’t look good.
At this point, I’m guessing Andrew Friedman has some ideas one day and dismisses them the next.
When a player is struggling it’s important to read body language. Body language doesn’t lie. I don’t claim to be Sigmund Freud, but just by watching games and trying to analyze the body language, Outman and Vargas are fine. Just trying to imagine the difference between MLB and minor league pitching has to be overwhelming. Barnes, Taylor and especially Syndergaard looked beat up. My thought as long as Outman and Vargas don’t look overwhelmed, keep running them out there. There isn’t a magic bullet, experience is the best teacher.
Look for gonsolin to bring it tonight! I hope mark is right about syndergard, and they skip him this road-trip, especially in Philadelphia! Believe Freddie gets hot again starting tonight. Yankees ran 2 good pitchers in a row against dodgy games 2 & 3. But still could have won both games, if bazooka doesn’t make that ridiculous. Throw to left center field. Worst play I’ve seen this year! It’s like he is in the twilight zone at times.. I guess Barnes gets the start Thursday since it’s a day game. Oh well, maybe he draws a walk or 2! Can’t wait for Miller time again! Kershaw was outstanding Friday night. Hopefully same for road start. Julio back and ready too. Is bickford thru?
Vargas is locked in at 2b but we have to many positions in flux.
Adding an everyday bat at SS or LF is a must.
I say roll with the arms we’ve got.
Right now, Miller certainly better than a #5 starter for this team. Maybe 2 0r 3. Of course that’s only three starts.
If Vargas and Outman are linchpins for 23 then we’re in trouble! More paperclip than linchpin
Enjoy the game. Thats a good ballpark and cheap too….
There are actually 56 days or 8 weeks remaining to the trading deadline of August 1. A lot depends on the health of May and Buehler. Will they be able to contribute in October? Can Urias be the pitcher he was in 2022 coming off the hamstring injury? Can Johnny D. hit left handed pitchers? More questions than answers. That’s why AF will need the full 8 weeks to make his decisions to strengthen the roster .