Note: For the record, I do not like the name WALKER – I think it is a horrible name for a pitcher. I have offered to pay the court fees to legally change his name to Striker Buehler! It’s a much more fitting name.
Well, I do think it’s appropriate to worry about any pitcher because throwing is an unnatural motion that has the capability of injuring the arm and/or shoulder. This is also a free country and you are free to have your own opinions… and you are free to worry all day and all night long, but you are not entitled to your own facts. According to BaseballSavant.com, here are Walker Buehler’s stats, including average fastball speed for the entire year.
- 2018 – 96.2 MPH -2.62 ERA – 137 IP
- 2019 – 96.5 MPH – 3.26 ERA – 182 IP
- 2020 – 96.8 MPH – 3.44 ERA – 36 IP (COVID)
- 2021 – 95.3 MPH – 2.47 ERA – 207 IP
So, Buehler’s velocity was down 1.5 MPH in a season where he pitched 207 innings versus the year before when he only pitched 36 innings, however, his ERA dropped a FULL RUN! Now, if you are trying to compare last season’s fastball velocity to what you saw yesterday, you are being silly. Walker Buehler logged 9.2 innings (THAT’S 9.2 INNINGS!) this spring training and expecting him to throw faster than he is in his first start is not very intelligent. Walker did throw about a half dozen pitches over 95 MPH yesterday.
Over the past year or so, other blogs have questioned Walker’s velocity drop and frankly, I think the questioning is due to pure inexperience with the Science of Pitching. Any good pitcher should realize that getting outs is dramatically more important than what the radar gun says your velocity might be. In 2019, Walker said that he threw “every fastball as hard as I can.” That was then. This is now. For the uninitiated, Walker Buehler has six pitches, including three different fastballs. The fastballs are different to the extent of how he grips them AND (here’s the big one) how hard he throws them, BECAUSE HE THROWS EACH ONE DIFFERENTLY!
He said last year that he changed the way he pitched for the good of the team. As Fallito wisely said yesterday, it’s better to have Buehler for 30+ starts, who averages 95 MPH than deGrom for 10 starts at 99 MPH. Most of the max velocity guys are relievers because they don’t last long as starters. Buehler has made a conscious effort not to be that max-effort guy and guess what? He’s a better pitcher as his ERA dropped a full point! Some fans dig that velocity, but I put 10X more stock in longevity, durability, and ERA! Thank you very much!
Worry about Striker Buehler all you want. Develop an ulcer. I don’t care. But as for me, I just realize Walker Buehler is a much better pitcher right about now than he was two years ago. In his next few starts, his velocity will tick up and you will see him hit 97… maybe 98 MPH occasionally, but if you expect him to ever be that guy again, you might end up with fifteen ulcers! Not being a max-effort guy with every fastball will keep Striker on the field a lot more frequently. Keep on doing what you are doing, Striker!
Dodger News & Notes
- It’s a shame that Victor Gonzalez is having elbow pain (I always take elbow soreness seriously). Hopefully, he can be back in early May. He worked so hard to lose weight and get into shape. I feel for him!
- Ferguson and Kahnle are also likely to be ready by May. The Dodgers have the luxury of not rushing them and they also want to have time to evaluate whether Evan Phillips is worthy of a spot, as he has no options left. If they send him down, he will get nabbed!
- It was a nice start to what is looming to be a great season… but they can do better!
- If Tony Gonsolin can throw about 5 innings tonight, his confidence will soar and he needs just that!
- I am extremely happy for Gavin Lux – hopefully, this builds up his confidence. What a difference-maker he can be… especially if he learns how to slide. 😉
- I am not going to analyze Cody Bellinger every day. It’s silly. I’ll address his progress (or lack thereof) on May 1st!
- If you have not been there, you should check out Jeff Dominique’s site: www.LAdodgerChronicles.com .
Minor League News
- The Dodgers’ four minor-league teams could all be the best in their leagues… but they have to play the games anyway!
- Beau Burrows @ OKC- 4 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
- Miguel Vargas @ OKC – 2-5 with his first AAA HR
- Phil Bickford @ OKC – 1 IP in relief
- Andy Pages @ Tulsa – 2-3 with a double and 3 RBI to go with 2 BB
- Jacob Amaya @ Tulsa – 2-5 (good to see)
- Gus Varland @ Tulsa – 4.1 IP, 0 R, 5 K (4 BB)
- Ismael Alcantara @ GL – 2-4 with a HR (the rest of the Loons had one hit – COMBINED!
- Hyu- ilChoi @ GL – 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 K’s
- Diego Cartaya @ RC – 1-5 with his 1st HR
- All the minor league clubs are now in full play mode.
Discussion (27)
Disagree, not disagreeable
With the off season losses and gains, I was curious if we’d resemble the Dodgers we know, love, and complain about. Safe to say, they’re still playing the Dodger way: dependable pitching, reliance on the long ball, strength in depth. The pitching was my biggest concern entering the season, and I think the bullpen has acquitted itself well so far and that’s a relief.
The plan cannot be to pitch Gonsolin and White or Anderson 3 innings in their scheduled starts all season. Manaea was made available, I thought he’d fit in seamlessly and wouldn’t cost much, and I don’t think we even made an offer. There hasn’t been much noise about adding a starter since pre-lock. Which makes me suspect Bauer is pitching for the Dodgers this season. Personally, I thought we’d trade as soon as the “leave” ended, but I also thought we’d add another starting pitcher and I was wrong there. With the chip on his shoulder he’ll be carrying, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s our best pitcher for much of the year.
The offense is still reliant on HRs and big innings. It’s a formula and it’s hard to argue against the track record, but it can also be maddening. I’m not going to advocate for a wholesale change, because that’s not happening. What can happen to get the most out of it? Bench power was pretty important in prior years and Rios should provide a boost. Bellinger and Muncy are going to find their rhythm probably sometime in June. If there is one glaring problem spot to address it’s the 3 hitter imo. The 3 hole has to move runners and knock in runs and that’s not Turner’s game. Trea Turner had a very Trea Turner type day. Struck out chasing outside the zone and hit three dribblers, one which he beat out. That’s who he is most nights and I feel we need to upgrade that spot one way or another to get the most out of this offense.
After two games, I am not going into panic mode. I do not care that Bellinger has yet to get a hit. I care that the fielding was a little sloppy tonight. I also care that they were not as patient at the plate as they usually are. 9 more K’s, so that is 20 in two games. Rockies are worse, they have struck out 22 times. Bellinger was at least making some contact, but he joined the K parade with two punchouts. They were actually 2-6 with men in scoring position. One of them was Turners dribbler. I think they will get on their hitting shoes soon. Tomorrows game is on early due to the team flying to Minnesota. It will be colder there than it has been in Denver, and the weather does not look good.
Patch, you sure you aren’t a Giants fan? Of course the second most negative person doesn’t think the most negative person is negative.
I just checked Bueller’s stats and I can’t tell that he’s declining by looking at his FIP. You must be a psychic to know he’s going to need another TJ. I noticed you didn’t put a time period on your grand prediction.
If you think K-Bear is raking after 2 games, you should check out Yoshii Tsutsugo. I remember he was a favorite of yours last year. The way Eric Hosmer and Jayson Heyward are hitting so far this season, you might see them in the HOF.
Were you drunk when you wrote this?
In close games defense is essential to win, today the Dodgers didn’t have it (Barnes and Muncy), it doesn’t bother me, anyone makes a mistake.
What did bother me was when Barnes was on second base and then FF hit that deep fly ball to CF, that ball should have been an SF and Barnes should have touched second base and then run to third base, then he would have scored the third run with the Trea infield hit.
Patch, one thing for sure you got wrong is AF panicking! And the Dodgers will have 92 wins by the first week in September.
Wow, a 418 ft. out. Just hit it too perfect, Freddy.
Another day. Another chance for folks here to start arguments. What is it today?
I don’t know who TM is, and I read and post here regularly. In spite of his infrequency here he somehow has the reputation as someone whose posts are “always negative.” I scrolled through the comments today. I didn’t notice anything from him that seemed too objectionable.
I don’t understand. Is there a rule that we’re not allowed to voice any criticism of players or the team? Is it supposed to be happy talk all the time? No dissention in the ranks? No subverting the morale? No “disinformation” to use a word that seems popular these days? Or maybe we’re just allowed to criticize some players. Screw Lux. He’s a scrub.
There’s something about the bullying of dissenting voices that rubs me the wrong way. If TM, whoever he is (and I thought responded with an awful lot of class) wants to voice his concern about Buehler’s velocity or Bellinger’s futility, then I’m all for it.
In fact, in the face of the pressure for non-stop happy talk, let me offer some contrarian takes that will annoy some … because I feel like it.
1. For those of you on the Lux bash wagon, and who keep including him on every hare brained trade scenario that will never happen, you’d better get used to him being around. It was reported that the Dodgers told Trea Turner they would NOT be offering him an extension. He will definitely be a free agent after this season. Sayonara Trea! Nice knowing you! I think he’ll help out tremendously with his bat and glove this year. I think he’ll be the team’s best offensive player. He hits for average, power and he has tremendous speed. He’s the catalyst Mookie should be, but isn’t for reasons I’ll get into shortly.
2. The Mookie signing will turn out to be a total disaster. Chronic hip pain in athletes is never good. In a lot of cases this signals a degenerative arthritic condition. These don’t get better. They only get worse. He will hit about .275 this year with between 20-25 HRs. His offensive production won’t fall off a great deal, but it’s his defense which will take a noticeable step back, and he won’t be stretching the bases or stealing much anymore. After this year, his pain will have to be managed more aggressively. He’ll miss more games. He will never be the player he was with Boston. He will be out of baseball with years remaining on his contract that the Dodgers will have to eat.
3. Keibert Ruiz is raking. He will wind up being the catcher the Dodgers should have held on to. He will be a consistent over .300 hitter with some pop who never strikes out and be an All Star. All to rent Trea Turner.
4. Buehler will need another Tommy John surgery. Even if he doesn’t, he’s just not as effective. In the first half of last year, his velo was in his normal range. It declined during the second half of the season, and he wasn’t the shut down stopper the Dodgers relied on in 2020. When there was series deciding game, he came with straight gas. He can’t do that anymore.
5. I agree about the constant harping on Bellinger. He is who he is at this point, and it clearly isn’t the Bellinger of 2019. Why celebrate every at bat where he doesn’t look completely lost? “He didn’t strike out! Yaaaay!” Until he shows me differently, I don’t even want to watch. I’ve seen enough. I know he can’t get around on fastballs anymore. Some people just lose it … even when they’re young.
6. AJ was quietly the best right handed bat behind Short-Timer Trea. AF panicked and traded him for a former stud relief pitcher who has been on the decline and was overvalued. That usually isn’t like AF. He doesn’t overpay. Now the Dodgers are stuck in a similar situation as they were with Kenley. His ego and past reputation necessitates he be The Closer, and if he isn’t, he’s going to pout and his performance is going to tank. That’s the dilemma the Dodgers now have to face. His reputation means he closes, but if his performance declines, there will be a lot of pressure to leave him in those high leverage situations because of his fragile ego. Bad trade.
Just to add a parenthetical comment, I think the Save is the single stupidest stat in baseball. The reputations and egos that are built around this contrived stat is part of what creates this prima donna culture among Closers, and closers definitely tend to be prima donnas.
7. The Dodgers win 92 games, come in 2nd place to the Padres and barely squeak by in the Wildcard game. They might scape into the NLCS but will be bounced.
All the non-stop happy talk is just cope. Tee Hee 😉
First HR of the year hit by Barnes. Last year it was McKinstry’s inside the park job. Although it should have been Bellinger, until Turner turned around and headed back thinking the ball was caught. Team still struggling to get hits in this game. Gonsolin doing just enough to keep the Rockies from scoring more. Muncy with 2 more K’s today.
We absolutely love it here. The beauty, the history, the food, and the people. Excited to explore all of the East Coast. We were totally blessed to have had a wonderful life in California for many years but the whole family is super excited to have made the move.
South Carolina is very cool. We frequently winter in Myrtle Beach and we love Charleston and the Haunted Tours. Greenville is also great.
I’m in Charleston and looking forward to catching a Charleston River Dogs game. Just found out that I’ve got Sports Net and can watch all the Dodger games. Very excited about that. Just spent the day freezing watching the WTA Charleston Open. Very classy event. Every bit as enjoyable as the BNP event in Indian Wells. We have to get together and watch a Dodger game
Cassidy: I believe you said you moved to South Carolina. I also live in SC , about 25 mile west of Columbia. Are you anywhere near? The SC in my user name is for South Carolina. Some posters have told me they thought it stood for Southern California.
Pollock looked to have tweaked a right hammie or glute rounding first on a single to left. Welcome to Detroit where it’s 40. The fans look ready for a Lions game. AJ has been in 80 degree weather in Arizona (it’s 96 today) all spring and now a frigid 40. It’s practically impossible to stay stretched out in 40 degrees and guys probably don’t stretch enough. Remember Ichiro constantly stretching regardless of the temperature. Baseball just isn’t meant to be played in cold weather. Too much sitting around time. Too much stop and start. If you’ve never hit a ball off the end of a wooden bat in 40 degrees, you haven’t lived.
It’s so typical of the Dodger fans who never warmed up to and appreciated AJ to do the I Told You So and sort of root for him to be injured or unsuccessful.
SPTony Gonsolin R
0-0 .00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
SS Trea Turner R
2B Max Muncy L
3B J. Turner R
DH Edwin Rios L
CF C. Bellinger L
LF Gavin Lux L
C A. Barnes R
Among all the SPs, Buhler and Urias are the only ones that shouldn’t be cause for worry…. and now that I’ve said that, I worry that I’ve jinxed them.
Manaea debuts with 7 no-hit innings for the Pads. Yeah, I think AF blew that one. Bob Melvin, an excellent manager, wanted his A’s stalwart to join him in San Diego–and the cost in prospects didn’t seem that high. So good on the Pads, who need good news….
Seems like an opportunity lost. But hey, maybe the Dodgers really will “fix” Heaney.
Really nice to see Lux off to a good start, especially against lefthanded pitching. If he starts hitting lefties, maybe he really can be more than a platoon guy.
The start is yet another vote of confidence for Lux because Hansel Alberto has a better track record against lefties.. And Lux’s big hit set the stage for the top of the order to produce. Maybe batting 9th is the best place for Lux’s latest “runway.”
Also count me as surprised that Muncy started at 3B and JT at DH, rather than the reverse. I assume that JT is probably still the better fielder at 3B but maybe Max has a bit more range at this stage. I think of 3B as Dodger’s weakest link on defense, which is why I also coveted Chapman before he went to the Jays. I wonder whether Alberto might be the best option if seeking a late-inning replacement.
Speaking of D, I doubt that I’m the only one who noticed that Cory Seager committed an error in his debut as the Rangers’ $300 million-man. I have to think Trea Turner moving over to his natural position of SS represents an upgrade. Of course now it might take a 300-million contract to extend him….
And in other ex-Dodger news, Atlanta got a taste of why Kenley makes fans nervous.
In my continuing quest for October Freeway Series, I wonder if I’m the only one mystified by Jo Adell’s defense. He’s supposedly a superior athlete with great speed who has always been an outfielder, but the early highlights make him look like the guy who last year bobbled an out at the fence for a HR. He seems to get a late jump and then run panicky routes. This is the opposite of superior fielders like Mookie and Pilar (even if Pillar has lost a step.) Adell factored into 3 plays I saw in highlights. To me it looked like a great fielder could have caught both, and good fielder one–but Adell didn’t even get in position to lay a glove on the ball. The third was a HR that nobody could have caught–but Adell had raced a few feet past the point where the ball passed over the wall. Just ugly.
Hmm. Wonder where free agent Justin Upton will land….
Well we lost 106 games last year so there’s a lot to complain about
I find very interesting that Max Muncy started the season opener @ 3rd base. I am not sure what to think about this, just saying.
I am new to posting on LADT but have been reading it daily for the past few years. I am impressed with the knowledge of the game by many posters; its commitment to remembering baseball and Dodger history; and Mark’s management of the site. As a former elected official, I know firsthand how opinions can range from insightful to absurd on most any topic in the public domain. And, we are all free to express our opinions.
However, I observed something in today’s posts that I want to comment on. As B&P itemized today in his six point TM rebuttal, TM’s comments are most always negative which is why I normally bypass his input. I do, however, read all of B&P’s comments because they are mostly thoughtful, constructive and I learn things I didn’t know. Fortunately for me, there are more posters on the LADT site like B&P than TM.
Poor Pollock, Injury has been his career nemesis. And that’s the reason the Kimbrel trade was a good one
There is no question that AJ can hit.
His health is the only question.
Old friend AJ Pollock taken out of the game today in the 3rd Inning with an injury. Injury happened when he singled to left center and rounded 1st base. He was .571 BA (5-7) as leadoff hitter for the White Sox.
Dodgers offense was 1 for 9. It was a good 1, so, it was enough.
I give Bellinger 50 more at bats, if he’s the same, he goes down.
Not at all worried about Buehler.
You: “Now, if you are trying to compare last season’s fastball velocity to what you saw yesterday, you are being silly. ”
I do not need to twist the words of others to make sense of an idea, this is what I said yesterday:
DodgerHorse
April 8, 2022 at 7:38 pm
I am not worried about Buehler’s results, those were very good in 2021, it is obvious that he has been able to adapt to the slowdown.
As I said in 2020 he was 97-99 touching 100 MPH and in 2021 he was 94-95 touching 96, what worries me is because at such a young age he has lost 3 mph, without any injuries, without overwork, etc, etc
The positive thing is that in this 2022 season, which is just beginning, he is already at the speed he was in all of 2021, so there is hope that he will increase, perhaps he will recover the lost MPH.
Buehler is one of my favorite players and I want the Buehler of 2020 to return.
STB posted a great comment yesterday that caught my eye…
“Kenley came in to pitch the 9th tonight with a 7-3 lead. By the time he got the last out the score was 7-6 with the tying run on first.”
I went back to the box score and it sure wasn’t pretty. I would have thrown up in my mouth if I had watched it.
13 cutters is a row before throwing his first sinker. 27 cutters total, most in the 90-91 mph range. His three other pitches were sinkers.
30 pitches and 3 runs to close out a 4 run lead at home in Atlanta. I wonder what Atlanta fans are thinking?
Kimbel didn’t have the best first outing, but one run in Colorado on 16 pitches while protecting a 3 run lead is par for the course. It wasn’t great, but it wasn’t a dumpster fire and I never felt the game was in jeopardy.
When it’s all said and done, I think we really dodged a bullet by not bringing Kenley back.
DodgerPatch – Yesterday was a great example why FIP is nonsense. Kyle Freeland pitched 3.2 innings and gave up 5 ER on 5 hits, two walks and 6 K’s. His ERA is 12.27 after his first start, but his FIP sits at a pristine 2.32, x FIP at a very respectable 3.60. He sucked, but his FIP says otherwise. In fact, Walker Bueller’s FIP is slightly higher at 2.34 and his xFIP is pretty much even at 3.59.
Today is Caturday, so it stands to reason that the Catman will be on the bump this evening in Colorado.
Greetings fellows, hope you had a great off season and are in good health. A few observations:
1. Cody is still Cody…like last year, I don’t expect much from him except defense
2. I hated to trade AJ for Kimbral. I think the latter is declining, although I hope he proves me wrong. I understand we needed to pick up a closer after we lost two studs
3. I hate not having Bauer as one of our starters. Heck, Deshaun Watson was coveted by 10 teams in the NFL, yet Trevor is a plague in MLB.
4. I wish Freddie had returned to Atl. He belongs there.
5. I hated losing Seager, but I understand he had to leave with that contract he was offered.
6. I think SP, without Bauer, and possibly The BP, without Jansen and Knebel, will again be our weakness that may prevent us from winning it all this year. Of course, we have plenty of time to acquire better pieces.
It’s a long season so no need to fret much in April. Besides, the NFL draft is right around the corner. Go NY Giants.
TM
Thanks for the link to Jeff’s new site. Will you be adding it to your dashboard?
I’d like to see Buehler throw his change up more often. I know last year he and Bauer had a running bet who could get more K’s with it and he got several K’s with the change up. Looked like a great pitch to me. Maybe it’s the thin air in Colorado and he didn’t have confidence in it but that could be a devastating pitch for him especially against lefties. It’s also the key pitch for Julio. He’s at his best when his change up is working for him. It’s only been 2 games but it already feels like the Angels have been eliminated from the playoffs! Talk about not being able to put a bullpen together! What a waste of Ohtani and Trout!