“Send Them Back to AAA!”

I heard that a lot last year with regard to Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy; “Send him back to OKC.” Well, they never got sent back, and both have had some major success subsequent to that. We know that the minor leagues are for the purpose of developing players, but at what point are they ready for the Show, and are there times when they should go from the Show back to the minors? That is a hard question (one to which there may not be a real answer), but I think that with regard to Michael Busch, he has nothing more to learn in AAA. But he has a lot to learn at the MLB Level. Does he get sent down when Max Muncy is activated from the IL?

At some point, you have to “stretch” a player out of his comfort zone. If the Dodgers keep sending Busch back to AAA, he is going to learn to become an AAAA player: Great in AAA, but not quite good enough for the Show. Keep in mind that progress is not linear. Vaughn Grissom of the Braves was called up from AAA in late 2022 and hit .291 with a .353 OB% and a .792 OPS. The Braves were so keen on him that they did not attempt to resign Dansby Swanson. However, he was sent back to AAA and only recently recalled.

Michael Harris II was called up in 2022 by the Braves and hit 19 HR while batting .297 with a .853 OPS. As of today, he is hitting .249 with a .706 OPS. He hit .190 in April, .167 in May, and now is hitting .350 in June. The Braves usually aggressively promote their players, while the Dodgers are much more conservative. It does appear that the Brave’s patience with him is paying off.

This begs the question, “When do you call a player up, and when do you send him back to AAA?” Well, there is no “roadmap.” Mike Trout hit .220 with a .672 OPS before returning to AAA and then “breaking out ” with a .326 BA and .963 OPS the very next year. Luke Raley and Ryn Noda never had much of a chance with the Dodgers, although Raley had a few short opportunities. However, Noda is OPS’ing .804 with the A’s, which is what you would expect from a very good player, while Luke Raley is currently bordering on stardom with a .921 OPS! What if the Dodgers had pushed Raley? What if…..?

I have quibbled with Andrew Friedman’s methods of calling up players. I have always thought he waited too long. I believed that Corey Seager was ready a year earlier, and very few thought Cody Bellinger was ready… except me. I caught a lot of flack for saying he was.

Now, please understand that Andrew Friedman is not the lone decision-maker. Brandon Gomes, Josh Brynes, Jeffrey Kingston, Billy Gasparina, Galen Carr, Will Rhymes, and even Pat Corrales, Joel Peralta, Jose Vizcaino, and Ron Roenicke are involved. These are all people who have vast exposure to the players involved, including attending games and practices on numerous occasions, many multiple internal scouting reports, video reports, analytics, and various other evaluation methods. So, when I say I “quibble with AF on the promotion of players,” it is from the point of view whereby I do not have nearly as much information as they do… so it is really not a big deal. I know they know far more than me.

Then some fans say a certain player or players need more time back at AAA. They have this opinion despite not having many of the facts. Often, they have never seen the player in person or even on TV. It’s often only based upon reading the sports pages/blogs and looking at the stats, which brings us to all the Dodger rookies, which include the following:

1. Miguel Vargas
2. James Outman
3. Gavin Stone
4. Bobby Miller
5. Jonny DeLuca
6. Emmet Sheehan
7. Nick Robertson

Seven is a lot of rookies… especially for a Championship Caliber baseball team! Before the start of the 2023 season, the Dodgers’ brain trust had concluded that Miguel Vargas had great tools and was MLB-ready. They took a “wait and see” attitude with the rest of the group. However, by the end of Spring Training, James Outman had forced himself onto the team. Neither Vargas nor Outman was ready for what they were about to experience.

Vargas was hit on the hand twice, resulting in not being able to swing a bat for over two weeks and then limiting his bat control. James Outman hit .289 in April and followed it up with .165 in May and has somewhat rebounded in June to .240, but with an anemic .589 OPS. Both rookies have played extensively. Only JD Martinez, Mookie Bettes, and Freddie Freeman have more at-bats. Many fans are calling for one or both to be sent back to AAA. Why, just to become an AAAA player? Miguel Vargas has hit .155 in his last 30 games. The Dodgers did not send Outman back to AAA when he hit .165 in May! Doesn’t Vargas deserve the same opportunity? I like both players, but I think Vargas has a chance to be special. However, progress is not linear.

There are going to be growing pains when integrating rookies into the lineup of an MLB team. Patience is not a virtue. It is mandatory! Sometimes rookies take off like a bat out of hell, and sometimes they crawl like turtles, but can you see progress? Can you see growth and skill? Can you see the game slowing down for them? Gavin Stone showed that he was not ready whatsoever. Jonny DeLuca looks like he could benefit from playing every day at AAA. Nate Robertson is a work in progress, but he is OK for now. Emmet Sheehan looks like a keeper and is unflappable. Bobby Miller is flappable, but his stuff makes him safe for now.

Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Bobby Miller, and Emmet Sheehan need to stay on the roster… at least up until the trade deadline. Jonny DeLuca is fine as long as there is not a better solution. After the All-Star Break, then the Dodgers will look at the trade market and see what is available. However, with the expanded playoffs and more teams trying to win a World Championship, it may be a “dope-fiend move” to trade. Do you really want a broken-down shell of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, or some others?

51% of the pitchers in MLB went on the IL last year, and I am afraid that number is going up. PITCHING IS A STUPID THING TO TRY AND BUY! The Dodgers lead MLB in “days lost to the IL.” however, the Dodgers are only three games out of first place, and some pitchers will be back while others may not. Max Muncy is due back this week, as is Julio Urias. Jimmy Nelson and Daniel Hudson are not far behind. BTW, the Dodgers bullpen just took the 26th position. The White Sox are #25, and they are next to be overtaken! The bullpen was so bad that they might not be able to break the Top 10 this year, but I think when the smoke settles, they will be there. That would be a nice comeback.

Growing prospects is not an exact science because we are dealing with “people” here, and Progress is Never Linear! Some players can benefit from going down to AAA, but others need to experience failure in order to enjoy success. I also agree with Walker Buehler: “Miguel Vargas will win some MVPs.”

Another milestone reached. Congratulations on 2,000 career hits, Freddie. pic.twitter.com/XDhvF8gaRw

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) June 26, 2023