I heard that a lot last year with regard to Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy; “Send him back to OKC.” Well, they never got sent back, and both have had some major success subsequent to that. We know that the minor leagues are for the purpose of developing players, but at what point are they ready for the Show, and are there times when they should go from the Show back to the minors? That is a hard question (one to which there may not be a real answer), but I think that with regard to Michael Busch, he has nothing more to learn in AAA. But he has a lot to learn at the MLB Level. Does he get sent down when Max Muncy is activated from the IL?
At some point, you have to “stretch” a player out of his comfort zone. If the Dodgers keep sending Busch back to AAA, he is going to learn to become an AAAA player: Great in AAA, but not quite good enough for the Show. Keep in mind that progress is not linear. Vaughn Grissom of the Braves was called up from AAA in late 2022 and hit .291 with a .353 OB% and a .792 OPS. The Braves were so keen on him that they did not attempt to resign Dansby Swanson. However, he was sent back to AAA and only recently recalled.
Michael Harris II was called up in 2022 by the Braves and hit 19 HR while batting .297 with a .853 OPS. As of today, he is hitting .249 with a .706 OPS. He hit .190 in April, .167 in May, and now is hitting .350 in June. The Braves usually aggressively promote their players, while the Dodgers are much more conservative. It does appear that the Brave’s patience with him is paying off.
This begs the question, “When do you call a player up, and when do you send him back to AAA?” Well, there is no “roadmap.” Mike Trout hit .220 with a .672 OPS before returning to AAA and then “breaking out ” with a .326 BA and .963 OPS the very next year. Luke Raley and Ryn Noda never had much of a chance with the Dodgers, although Raley had a few short opportunities. However, Noda is OPS’ing .804 with the A’s, which is what you would expect from a very good player, while Luke Raley is currently bordering on stardom with a .921 OPS! What if the Dodgers had pushed Raley? What if…..?
I have quibbled with Andrew Friedman’s methods of calling up players. I have always thought he waited too long. I believed that Corey Seager was ready a year earlier, and very few thought Cody Bellinger was ready… except me. I caught a lot of flack for saying he was.
Now, please understand that Andrew Friedman is not the lone decision-maker. Brandon Gomes, Josh Brynes, Jeffrey Kingston, Billy Gasparina, Galen Carr, Will Rhymes, and even Pat Corrales, Joel Peralta, Jose Vizcaino, and Ron Roenicke are involved. These are all people who have vast exposure to the players involved, including attending games and practices on numerous occasions, many multiple internal scouting reports, video reports, analytics, and various other evaluation methods. So, when I say I “quibble with AF on the promotion of players,” it is from the point of view whereby I do not have nearly as much information as they do… so it is really not a big deal. I know they know far more than me.
Then some fans say a certain player or players need more time back at AAA. They have this opinion despite not having many of the facts. Often, they have never seen the player in person or even on TV. It’s often only based upon reading the sports pages/blogs and looking at the stats, which brings us to all the Dodger rookies, which include the following:
- Miguel Vargas
- James Outman
- Gavin Stone
- Bobby Miller
- Jonny DeLuca
- Emmet Sheehan
- Nick Robertson
Seven is a lot of rookies… especially for a Championship Caliber baseball team! Before the start of the 2023 season, the Dodgers’ brain trust had concluded that Miguel Vargas had great tools and was MLB-ready. They took a “wait and see” attitude with the rest of the group. However, by the end of Spring Training, James Outman had forced himself onto the team. Neither Vargas nor Outman was ready for what they were about to experience.
Vargas was hit on the hand twice, resulting in not being able to swing a bat for over two weeks and then limiting his bat control. James Outman hit .289 in April and followed it up with .165 in May and has somewhat rebounded in June to .240, but with an anemic .589 OPS. Both rookies have played extensively. Only JD Martinez, Mookie Bettes, and Freddie Freeman have more at-bats. Many fans are calling for one or both to be sent back to AAA. Why, just to become an AAAA player? Miguel Vargas has hit .155 in his last 30 games. The Dodgers did not send Outman back to AAA when he hit .165 in May! Doesn’t Vargas deserve the same opportunity? I like both players, but I think Vargas has a chance to be special. However, progress is not linear.
There are going to be growing pains when integrating rookies into the lineup of an MLB team. Patience is not a virtue. It is mandatory! Sometimes rookies take off like a bat out of hell, and sometimes they crawl like turtles, but can you see progress? Can you see growth and skill? Can you see the game slowing down for them? Gavin Stone showed that he was not ready whatsoever. Jonny DeLuca looks like he could benefit from playing every day at AAA. Nate Robertson is a work in progress, but he is OK for now. Emmet Sheehan looks like a keeper and is unflappable. Bobby Miller is flappable, but his stuff makes him safe for now.
Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Bobby Miller, and Emmet Sheehan need to stay on the roster… at least up until the trade deadline. Jonny DeLuca is fine as long as there is not a better solution. After the All-Star Break, then the Dodgers will look at the trade market and see what is available. However, with the expanded playoffs and more teams trying to win a World Championship, it may be a “dope-fiend move” to trade. Do you really want a broken-down shell of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, or some others?
51% of the pitchers in MLB went on the IL last year, and I am afraid that number is going up. PITCHING IS A STUPID THING TO TRY AND BUY! The Dodgers lead MLB in “days lost to the IL.” however, the Dodgers are only three games out of first place, and some pitchers will be back while others may not. Max Muncy is due back this week, as is Julio Urias. Jimmy Nelson and Daniel Hudson are not far behind. BTW, the Dodgers bullpen just took the 26th position. The White Sox are #25, and they are next to be overtaken! The bullpen was so bad that they might not be able to break the Top 10 this year, but I think when the smoke settles, they will be there. That would be a nice comeback.
Growing prospects is not an exact science because we are dealing with “people” here, and Progress is Never Linear! Some players can benefit from going down to AAA, but others need to experience failure in order to enjoy success. I also agree with Walker Buehler: “Miguel Vargas will win some MVPs.”
Discussion (33)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Kersh is an absolute Gem.
Lets cherish each time he goes out and takes the ball.
Id love for him to win another WS (and CY), this time in Dodger stadium, and ride off into the sunset….course if he wanted to come back after said WS that be fine too….
Hitters 6-9 4 hits, 2 RBI’s
5-0 win and and all you guys do is bitch! You all must have shitty lives! It sucks to be you.
I have feeling Kershaw is headed to the injured list, rewatched the sixth and he was laboring due to his back. Bad feeling we are in for our annual month off for the great one. Not a good time but it never is.
Dodgers win and Bickford still stinks…………………..
Graterol must give up more hits with 2 strikes than anyone else in the league
I recently wrote if Busch gets sent down upon Muncy’s return, that signals me the Dodgers are showcasing Busch as predominantly a trade asset this season. Now it’s happened so I see MB likely traded by the deadline.
Los Angeles Dodgers
@Dodgers
The Dodgers activated IF Max Muncy from the injured list and optioned IF Michael Busch.
8:40 PM ET
Dodgers (43-34)
Rockies (31-49)
SP Clayton Kershaw L
9-4 2.72 ERA
SP Connor Seabold R
1-3 5.88 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
2B Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Martinez R
LF D. Peralta L
RF J. Heyward L
CF James Outman L
SS Miguel Rojas R
Partly-cloudy-day
90° Wind 17 mph L-R
STB asked yesterday “Succeed? What does that mean? One day on an MLB roster? One year? Making an All Star Team? Did they happen to give a definition of the term “Succeed”?”
Good question.
I think it depends on each individual. The high draft picks typically get more opportunities early on to make it. They will be the first guys to get instructional league and fall ball opportunities. Maybe move through the lower minors quicker even with less impressive numbers. Teams want the guys they have invested in to make it. But they need to show the characteristics the area scouts, cross-checkers and evaluators saw that got them drafted high in the first place. They will get their chances. In most organizations, the lower round guys need to turn some heads much sooner and they have a much shorter leash. The Dodgers have the reputation of being a great developer of talent because each guy is given instruction and an environment conducive to reaching your potential; from first -rounders to non-roster invitees. Not every organization invests time in kids who likely won’t make it.
Teams can’t afford to miss often on high picks, especially first-rounders.
A select few are viewed early on as “can’t miss” guys like Bryce Harper, and they have a take on what is their “success”. But, I think most players would consider their career a big success if they got to be an everyday MLB player or a reliable pitcher on a staff, starter or reliever. Next would be playing long enough in MLB to draw a pension. That is a really big deal to the players.
Helene Elliott’s description of the Dodgers’ rotation right now (from the Times)
“Throw somebody — anybody and sometimes any bodies — out there four times, and on the fifth day wait for Clayton Kershaw to rescue the Dodgers.”
Not far from right.
https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2071714-miguel-olivo-suspended-after-biting-teammate-alex-guerreros-ear.amp.html
Vargas until he can hit the 94+ fastball he will be a real MLB player, right now he is an AAAA player.
Yep. They got 1 1/2 years of Trea Turner. That’s why it was probably AF’s best move.
And AF was also right to let Trea leave. He got his $300-million-plus contract from Philly but isn’t really delivering the goods.
Plus, let’s remember that the Dodgers made an excellent offer to keep Scherzer, but he opted for the bigger Met money.
Methinks that the brass would have different approaches to each player. Some are considered true “rentals” would simply be released. But they liked the already-aging Rich Hill so much they signed him to a 3-year contract–the first big-money deal of his remarkable career. There is about a .001% chance that Ohtani will get traded, but any team that gets him would be courting his long-term services.
Consider Lucas Giolito. He’s been really good on a not-good team, and he’s still young. He’s an LA native and probably grew up rooting for the Dodgers. If the Dodgers get him, he might have personal reasons to sign to stay in SoCal rather than test the open market. (The Angels also need an SP.)
I just read that Shane Beiber has another year of arbitration. He’s a true ace but a bit off his game right now. If Cleveland decides to deal him, the price would be high. Stroman is pitching great in his opt-out year. If the going-nowhere Cubs don’t trade him, they could lose him with nada in return.
Miami and Southern California coast real estate.
If you can avoid the rising waters, it’s nearly the safest investment on Earth.
IMO
Just read an interesting story about Alex Guererro. Some will remember him. Had a great couple of months with the Dodgers slugged 11 homers. But was gone by the next season. Well Alex got about 28 mil from the Dodgers in his contract. Including 10 mil up front. He invested his money in real estate in Florida. He bought a house in an upscale neighborhood and had it torn down and built a new home in it’s place. He just sold that house for 14 mil. Nice.
Muncy will be back today and at third. My guess is the Hernandez heads back to OKC.
The weekly Power Report is out:
https://theathletic.com/4632574/2023/06/26/mlb-power-rankings-braves-rays/?campaign=5888993&source=dailyemail
The Dodgers are #7, but only the Braves and Rays have higher playoff odds. The other four teams ahead of the Dodgers have much lower playoff odds.
In my ongoing quest to witness an October Freeway Series before I die, I’m happy to report that the Angels just beat the White Sox 2-1, with Trout scoring on a wild pitch in the 9th. The other Angels run scored on Ohtani’s 26th HR.
And although he didn’t get the win, Reid Detmers pretty much matched Sox ace Dylan Cease pitch for pitch. Detmers struck out 10 in 7 innings, allowing two hits, including a HR by Luis Robert. Cease struck out 10 in six innings, allowing 4 hits, included Ohtani’s blast. About a week earlier, Detmers outpitched Kershaw, but Kershaw got the W. (Detmers has been a hard-luck pitcher, with a 1-5 record despite a decent 3.77 ERA. )
If the season ended today, the Angels would finish 1/2 game out of the wild card. They’ve played well despite a subpar first half from Trout. And with Urshela and Rendon (ugh) injured, the brass just traded for veterans Escobar from the Mets and Moustakas from the Rockies, both of whom have been playing well.
It’s a long shot–always is–but as we near midseason the Angels are very much in the hunt.
And the Dodgers always are.
I just read this on a site called ClutchPoints. They propose that the Dodgers trade for Ohtani at the deadline and get a leg up on signing him to an extension. If he likes LA, they might even save some money. The price would be steep. But I found it very interesting. Dodgers get Ohtani. Angels get, Cartaya, Busch, Stone, Pages, Pepiot and River Ryan. Hmm. I think I would do it.
Right now there are 8 rookies on the team. Mark forgot Hernandez. But I disagree that there is nothing to be gained by sending Vargas down for a week or two. They have done it before, and it worked. Puig was sent down, and it humiliated him enough that he came back more focused. They did the same thing with Joc Pederson. Vargas, outside of his homer in the Angel game, hasn’t hit a ball hard in a couple of weeks. His swing is screwed up. His timing is off. That should not happen if you are playing every day. As for Muncy, I expect more of the same, walks, K’s and some long balls, but little consistency. Taylor might be out longer than you think. Knee pain is not something that just goes away. They definitely need more consistency in the lineup. Freddie broke a mild slump with his two doubles. But JD Martinez is mired in a mild slump too. But he is the kind of hitter who can carry the team when he gets hot. Vargas is a talented kid. But right now his hitting mechanics are very screwed up. Send him down. Only one Dodger prospect is in the futures game, Dalton Rushing. Beeter is on the AL team for the Yankees.
When Muncy returns, expect Hernandez to be sent down. Busch will be around as long as Taylor is on the IL. From the sound of it (bone bruise that isn’t healing that quickly), Busch should have more time to show what he can do. A platoon of Vargas/Busch at second could be the way to go.
Being the “best” team has won us only one title so why not try something new! Right now it’s tough to see Vargas even as an average major leaguer much less an all star or MVP. Now those are the rosiest rose colored glasses ever!
Good to see the Dodgers win the Astro series. Now they need to win some games against the Rockies and Royals.
The race for the division and the playoffs is crowded and not many teams are sellers yet. In looking at the National league, the Braves are clearly the best team right now and their lineup is impressive. They tend to stick with a consistent lineup without the platoons you see from other teams. They have 9 everyday players and a backup catcher that are all solid hitters. Eight of the top 10 have an OPS above 800 and the other two starters are Austin Riley at 760 and Michael Harris at 706. And Both of these players hit above 800 OPS last year. Also, the lineup is very young with the oldest player 32 and most players under 30. By comparison the Dodgers lineup has a lot weaknesses after the top 4 hitters. Yesterday the bottom 5 consisted of Peralta, Heyward, Outman, Rojas and Busch. All below 800 OPS and two below 600 OPS.
Anything can happen in a short playoff series. Unless the Dodgers make some big moves, they will probably not be the best team in the NL playoffs for the first time in 5 or 6 years.
Dodgerrick stated above, “According to one study, 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed, and 40% of pitchers.”
Succeed? What does that mean? One day on an MLB roster? One year? Making an All Star Team?
Did they happen to give a definition of the term “Succeed”?
And a question for Mark: Is progress linear?
Agree completely. What the Dodgers said publicly in the off season and their actions in building this roster have been consistent. They have plugged holes with one year deals and are bullish on their farm system. With all of the injuries to their rotation, the ineffectiveness of Syndergaard, season ending injury to Lux, and bullpen struggles they are just off the pace in the NL West and are still the favorite to win the West (with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball.).
I can see giving Vargas a few days to clear his head but don’t see much value in sending him down to AAA. If they can give Muncy and Taylor a roster spot for a week to see if they need to be on I L, they can give Vargas a few days to reset.
Dodgers have a glut of right hand pitching at the top two levels in their system. Some of them will be dealt by necessity. They will have to create room on their 40 man roster by the end of the year or risk losing some Rule 5 eligible prospects for nothing. I do think they will need a starting pitcher – Flaherty and Giolito are going to be FA at year’s end and make sense in terms of cost – but I would like to see them give young pitchers like Hurt, Frasso, and Pepiot a chance to help out of the pen.
It has been a different but interesting year to be a Dodger fan. A changing of the guard but a team still capable of winning in the post season. Aside from the Braves there is not a team any better than the Dodgers in the National League, in my opinion.
Pitching is a stupid thing to try to buy?
In recent years the Dodgers bought Rich Hill, Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer for the stretch runs. Over the offseason, they signed Syndergaard when they could have opted for a cheaper stop-gap option (like Hill) or placed their faith in prospects like Pepiot, Miller, Grove and Stone.
Very, very good post Mark. You have restated exactly what I hope the less patient fans will come to grips with. It is a year of transition and we need to see what we have in our highly touted organization. Some will make it and others won’t but they need the opportunity. The best way to reload your roster is from within. When we get a better idea of who will develop into a big leaguer and not just a prospect then we can acquire players from outside the organization to fill our needs.
But we don’t know that yet. The fans don’t know, the organization doesn’t know and the players themselves don’t know. All the kids want is a chance. A legit chance. Not 2 weeks or a month or even half a season. And all the players can do is play hard and do their best. Believe me they don’t want to get bounced on the transit between AAA and the Show either and sometimes it’s necessary. As Mark says it’s a tough call. But AAA can be a tune up but some of these kids have little to prove there.
We all recall the stories of how Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle struggled initially in the big leagues. Mickey wanted to go home and Mutt was going to help him pack his bag if he was going to be a quitter. Mays was in despair when Durocher told him as long as he managed the Giants, Willie would be his center fielder.
Mark’s best reminder to everyone is “Keep in mind that progress is not linear.”
Some fans don’t get it. It’s a Transitional Year” AF refrained from big off season moves. He’s trimmed some payroll. Bauer’s dead 28 million will come off the books. We were going to see rookies but injuries have forced the issue. Gavin Lux will get first dibs at SS next spring. We don’t need an expensive rentals now, even if there were any that would help and not be too expensive.
AF and his evaluators will have a far better idea for spending on free agents, packaging some players and making deals this winter. Maybe we will see some prospects packaged at the deadline but I don’t anticipate that. I think we play the cards we have, see who progresses and try to get a Wild Card spot.
I see so much to be optimistic about with especially our young pitching. Let’s give them time to play out. Like I said before, nobody wants to be shitty, but we’re going to be much better in the future.
The trade market could include some quality starters. Giolito seems certain to be moved, and we could see Beiber, Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez on the market. Will the Dodgers approach this as a rental or something long-term?
And there are also bound to be some frontline veteran RPs on the market too.
With Max and Taylor due back soon, I suspect Busch and DeLuca will head back to OKC. What are the other options?
What would the White Sox want for Giolito? What would the Cubs want for Stroman?
Dodgers have a definite advantage in the trade market with their prospect depth. Interesting report in DodgersDigest today about how the LA has 9 of the top 100 prospects in a new listing–and behind them are young talents like Maddux Bruns, 19-year-old Payton Martin and Josue de Paula.
If I can decide, I’ll stick with the young rookies instead of looking for pitchers with questionable performance or “dead arms” including the amount of money they cost.
I prefer that with that money they incentivize the entire farm system, and maybe the guys get motivated and become attached to our team and have the DODGERS brand tattooed on them.
According to one study, 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed, and 40% of pitchers. This idea that all Dodger prospects will succeed is unsupported. We would like for Vargas and Outman to be long-term contributors to the team’s success, but it’s likely that at least one won’t. The chances are even worse for pitchers.
The other thing is that there isn’t just one issue when you decided who to keep on the MLB roster and who you send down. One is the long-term answer (does keeping them up foster or hinder their development?), but the other is the short-term answer (does the player help you win now?). The answer to these two questions may be different, and if you really have championship aspirations, you may not be able to keep the non-contributing player on the MLB roster. I think that has influenced Friedman’s thinking in the past.
If I’m right and this year is transitional, then maybe you keep the player up and wait and see. If they are serious about winning now, there are only so many marginal players that you can have on the roster and try to win.
Yawn. Mark…The whole write-up is trite. You load up on buzz-words as if imitating a TV commercial. I wish you’d at least occasionally write something of merit instead of the continual rehashing of your often sophomoric and prejudicial takes. And you escalate Homerism to Himalayan proportions quite frequently, but especially in your Vargas for ROY illusion. Be more than a shill and a political pawn of the Dodgers. Right now you write like you sold out to them.
Freddie is a Class Act.
Let the kids play. Keep the young arms. We’re gonna need em going forward.