Same as it Ever Was

Or, the more things change, the more they stay the same…

This year was supposed to be different. After all, we had the highest payroll in the universe, (The Mets certainly tried), the deepest team, a ton of pitching and a 40-man roster just oozing with talent. Overflowing actually, since stashing guys on the 60 became an art for this front office. And it all comes crashing down…

Please excuse my disjointed thoughts over the last couple of days while I mourned our collective demise over the weekend. It wasn’t all bad, I smoked a great 7 and half pound pork butt and it came out delicious. Next time I’ll post picks!

I just wanted to start with a recap from my last post on this site, right before the start of the series… 

All we need to do is stick with the script, don’t over-manage and let the game come to us.

Stick with the starting lineup

• Betts RF R
• T Turner SS R
• Freeman 1B L
• Smith C R
• Muncy DH L
• J Turner 3B R
• Lux 2B L
• Thompson LF R
• Bellinger CF L

Don’t play the bench players, they did nothing to earn playing time. 

Barnes, Gallo, CT3 and Alberto should be on the bench for most of the postseason, if not for its entirety. 

Let the starting pitchers pitch.  No early hooks like Rich Hill almost every time he pitched in the postseason.  Don’t put May and Gonso on artificial limits.  Let them keep pitching until they look like they’re fading.  Don’t even count pitches as pitch counts will likely lead to a bad decision.  Now is the time to use your eyes and keep them on the field and off the stats sheet.

So what went wrong?

The Second Spring Training

It started with the last month of the season.  When have you ever seen a team hold a Spring Training style tryout to determine the postseason roster?  With the playoffs and home-field advantage clinched, the Dodgers decided it would be best to do just that.  Instead of getting your players in a rhythm, game after game was a different lineup with CT3 playing at second base, left field and center field.  He failed miserably with the bat during that stretch taking at bats away from Trayce Thompson in the process. Trayce wound up playing each game in the postseason anyways, and he would have benefitted from trust from management and playing time down the stretch.  They also took away Trayce’s playing time with Joey Gallo, who wasn’t even afforded an opportunity in 4 postseason games.

I questioned rest or rust several times in the last month.  Regularly resting your starters knowing full well there was going to be a week layoff wasn’t needed.  The offense took their foot off the gas and never got it back.  I can see resting your pitchers to some extent, but not the position players.  The pitchers were given a 6 man rotation for most of the month and were routinely pulled early for extra rest.  Isn’t this conditioning the pitchers to throw fewer pitches, less innings?  We’ve heard about building up starters after going on vacation all year, so the reverse must also be true.

Muncy, JT, Trea, Mookie all went cold with extra rest over the final month.  Mookie went bowling and Belli decided to show up during the last week of the season.  CT3 and Gallo didn’t do anything to deserve a playoff roster spot and Hanser, the one guy on the bench that’s adept at hitting lefties, was left off the roster.

Messing around with the lineup card

They picked the right lineup for opener.  A 5-3 win at home and it looked like the Dodgers would roll through the first round against their whipping boys to the South that they shamed all season long.  14-5 against little brother and the Dodgers needing to win just two more games.  For some reason Julio was pulled after just 80 pitches.  The Dodgers were too afraid to let the NL ERA leader face the middle of the Padres order.  Well, the bullpen was rested, no harm no foul, right?

Same lineup for game two and they delivered 11 hits and 4 walks with just 9 K’s.  That bested the Padres in all those marks and yet they still managed to lose the game.  Kershaw was vintage post-season Kershaw and turned in a perfectly mediocre Kershaw-esque performance.  Not horrible, but definitely not great.  Just 5 innings on 80 pitches and Kershaw is outta there even though he gave up one run in each of the first 3 innings, then settled in and even pitched a 1-2-3 5^th inning.  So it’s another 4 innings from the pen.  Graterol allowed an unearned run in relief behind Trea Turner miscues and a rusty Treinen gave up a bomb making his first appearance since coming off the IL in a one-run playoff game. 

Alright, no big deal, the Padres had to win one of these, so let us go to San Diego and get the job done there.  Anderson’s scheduled to pitch, so we should be good to go.

Lineup screwdom and a 2-1 loss.  Couldn’t resist f-ing with the lineup, a lefty was on the hill after all.  Barnes in for Will after a day off, Will to DH, Muncy for Lux after Lux had 2 hits in the previous game, Taylor for Belli, and Thompson to center.  Gonzo turned his “Start” into a bullpen game and they had to come up with another 6 innings of relief.  Good thing they put Taylor in there as he went 0-4 with 2 K’s.  They had an opportunity to pinch hit for Taylor against a righty in the 6th, but they chose to keep Belli and Gallo on the bench.  Hell, they could have given Vargas an AB and subbed immediately subbed him out for Gallo or Belli on defense.  Hell, they could have started Gallo instead of Taylor since Gallo was pretty good against Snell in the past.  Hell, they could have pinch hit Gallo or Belli for CT3 against a righty and still had Vargas available for a lefty and then sub in another great fielding outfielder later in the game.  Maybe Hanser should have been on the roster to start against Snell instead of do nothing Taylor or Gallo. 

Well, now it’s game 4, backs up against the wall.  Tyler didn’t pitch yesterday, so he’s good to go today.  It turns out Tyler was good to go to the tune of 5 innings of shutout baseball on 2 hits and 2 walks on 86 pitches. Tyler was on a shitload of rest.  He hadn’t pitched since October 2^nd.  He said after the game that he felt good and could have thrown 150 pitches.  He tossed 123 pitches in a 4-1 win against the Angels during the season while pitching into the 8^th.  Over his last 5 starts, his high was just 90 pitches.  Way to prepare for the postseason!

Bullpen Over-Use

They went to the well one too many times like they’ve done oh so many times before.  It started to unravel with Kahnle, who pitched in back to back games just once all season.  He shit himself and didn’t record an out.  They had Graterol ready, probably a good choice with his propensity to throw ground balls with runners on.  He was ready, and only pitched in one game so far.  Maybe they wanted to keep the ball away from Trea? 

Nah, let’s go with Almonte instead.  Double, single, tie game.  He comes back and K’s Machado, popped Drury on one pitch.  Now, he’s looking like he’s warmed up. Oh shit, the postseason monster reared it’s ugly head – The dreaded unnecessary mid-inning pitching change! 

Yency had reverse splits this season, so it’s only natural for this team to take him out against a lefty to put in a cold lefty.  And that’s the game!  Vesia is one of the wildest pitchers on the team.  He is not the answer to bring in with runners on.  Par for the course, the lefty doesn’t get the lefty out and coughs up two more runs.  Over managing at its finest!  And a song I’ve heard oh so many times before.

Curious Roster Construction

The worst part about this is, having another reliever in the bullpen could have been a big help.  Especially, after using the bullpen like the only can of aquanet back stage at a Motley Crue concert.

So why was May on the roster?  What role did he have? I thought is was weird at the time that they would have so many starting pitchers on the roster while leaving good relievers off the roster. At the very least, Ferguson would have been the second lefty knowing that Heaney would be more of a long man. If you don’t use May in a game where your starter only goes an inning, when the hell are you planning to use him.

Same thing for the bench. Why was Gallo or Vargas on the roster?  There was a clear opportunity to pinch hit for Taylor in game 3, but they chose not to.  What did Taylor do this season to earn that kind of confidence? He hit less than 200 since coming off the IL in early August. You could have easily made the case to leave CT3 off the roster, except he’s the versatile player on defense. That’s great insurance in case of injury, but he certainly didn’t do a damn thing to earn 2 starts in 4 games.

Why TF do you pull all of your starting pitchers with 80 something pitches?  If you’re going to do that, why didn’t you put another reliever on the roster? Instead, you waste a roster spot or two or three, one on a guy that didn’t pitch and the others on guys that you can’t find an at bat for in the closest of games, all three losses! Was roster construction a popularity contest?

The Dodgers Way

This was a great team.  They had the talent, so I can only blame who manages the talent to fail to win 3 close games in a row.  You say you want to blame the players for not producing? How can you do that when it’s every freaking year, with different players, who’s to blame?  What’s the solution to this problem and why hasn’t it been fixed already?

Could it be that the Dodgers way to play baseball is optimized to win in a long season where regression to the mean wins out, but the same way to play baseball is not optimal for winning a short series?  This is the most frustrating exit in the entire run of regular season dominance and postseason failure. Someone should pay the price for it.  You won the first game of a five game series against a team you beat the crap out of all year and then you go on to lose 3 freaking games by 2 runs or less. It’s just shameful. 

Some people say getting hot at the right time is the key to the postseason.  So, how is resting players down the stretch is going to get you hot?

Is having a starting pitcher throw to the lineup a 3^rd time that detrimental?  Moreso, than using a tired reliever?  Tyler Anderson had a 1.46 ERA in the 7^th inning this season and a 0.00 ERA in the 8^th inning this season.  But, his worst ERA was in the 6^th inning.  What does this mean?  Is it just a rule of thumb that he can’t pitch in the 6^th, but can pitch in every other inning?  Does that mean he can never pitch in the 6^th in  a postseason game even if your eyes tell you his pitching a great game?  Even then, with a 3 run and in the process of throwing a freaking 2 hit shutout you turn the game over to a bullpen that’s pitched more than the starters over the first three games. That’s just idiotic.

I can’t say I’m particularly fond of how this team plays baseball.  Lux, Betts, Taylor and Belli are some of the fastest guys in the game and only one of them had 20 steals this season, none with 30.  But, this team sure knows how to strike out swinging for the fences!  So how the hell are you supposed to score runs if you don’t do more on the bases and you don’t put the freaking ball in play?  Just take a walk, and hope that HR or Double shows up. This is the worst brand of baseball there is. Especially on a team that has fast guys like Lux, Trea and Mookie.

The Dodgers used to be about fundamental baseball.  Field your position, Steal and Hit and Run.  Move runners over.  I want to see more small ball dammit!  They lost 3 freaking close ballgames in this series, and 3 close ones last year against the Braves.  Do they learn from it?  Hell no.  Same approach in every at bat.

So, What do We do Now?

My first reaction was F-it!  Blow this up and let the kids play.  We certainly have enough of them at the highest levels in the minors and they’re obviously great since AF could spare them to get a guy that can LF every day.  We all think they’re great, so they must be and good to go for next season.  Andrew’s got a team of scouts, analytics people and any kind of talent evaluator you can imagine.  All of this gives him a better-educated guess than we have on evaluating who’s a keeper and who’s trade bait. 

The more rational side of me says don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.

Honestly, there’s some glaring things that need to be addressed this offseason. Obviously, we’ll need to sign a couple of formerly good, injured pitchers that we can use in the second half of the season. But, beyond that, there are some big holes to address.

• There’s a hole in the middle infield because Trea’s is a free agent. 
• There’s too many players in the lineup that strike out too much.
• There’s a need for a big, right-handed power hitter to stick in between Muncy and Freeman.
• If Muncy is your best third baseman, it’s time to move on from JT.

The current hitting philosophy isn’t getting the job done in close postseason games.  This may be a function of the players, or the result of the hitting coaches.  It might just be the manager, or the committee that predetermines how each game is to be played.  Figure it out and fix it!

Let’s Face Some Facts…

• Clayton Kershaw is never going to ever be a postseason warrior.
• As good as Dave Robert’s record is in the regular season, it’s pretty bad in the postseason.
• The goal of every sports team is to win the Trophy at the end of the season.  Obliterating your division foes en route to a playoff spot is a milestone, not the completed product. 
• Choking in the postseason practically every year is a problem that needs to be fixed.  The teams have had different players year to year and the constants have been the Manger and AF.   
• This system of consensus or committee behind closed doors doesn’t work because no one knows who’s making the decisions so no one is being held accountable. 

AF is a good GM.  The team wins a ton of games year after year and the minor league system is highly regarded and highly rated by the experts. But, he obviously has some warts if we keep getting eliminated more often than not.  With this postseason record, he’s hardly the genius that many believe he is. 

He sure looked smart this season when his team won 111 games setting a franchise record along the way and becoming the second team in over 100 years of National League history to win as many.  He had one of the highest-rated farm system to draw from at the deadline and did nothing to get a difference-maker at the deadline, much less a player to adequately handle left field.  The guys he held onto better produce next year otherwise it’s just a tragic misuse of assets.

Maybe he’s just too damn busy micro-managing Roberts to do his own job effectively.  Perhaps he should focus his first job, being a great GM, instead of trying to play multiple positions. If he’s even suggesting who to play, when to play them, or has people to do that, he needs to stop, walk away from this job, or be fired. You can’t effectively be the President of Baseball Operations, GM, Manager, Head Grounds crewman, and ball polisher all at the same time.  Real leaders don’t do all the jobs themselves, they hire capable people around them and empower them to be their best.  If Doc isn’t 100% making all the game decisions by himself, Andrew and his team of nerds need to butt out or get the hell out. 

The reason we lost wasn’t because of luck, or players.  Once again, it was mostly poor game management with a dash of poor roster construction and a style of play that that doesn’t allow you to manufacture a run when you need to in a close game

I know that AF and Doc won’t be fired.  Somehow there’s no accountability here and it’s frustrating to no end.  But, if I’m Kasten, I tell Andrew that his system is flawed and needs to be changed.  You can have a meeting with the manager before each game to give him information, but it’s the manager’s responsibility to run the ballclub on the field.  If the manager fails again, both of you lose your job, so you better be sure you have the right manager and coaching staff.

Actually, scratch that.  If I’m Kasten, I fire the whole lot of them except for Mark Prior and his crew.  Now, go get that right-handed power hitter for the middle of the order like you should have done for years and fire Geren and hire someone that can make all the field decisions for Doc.

**Sigh**, different year, same results.