Or, the more things change, the more they stay the same…
This year was supposed to be different. After all, we had the highest payroll in the universe, (The Mets certainly tried), the deepest team, a ton of pitching and a 40-man roster just oozing with talent. Overflowing actually, since stashing guys on the 60 became an art for this front office. And it all comes crashing down…
Please excuse my disjointed thoughts over the last couple of days while I mourned our collective demise over the weekend. It wasn’t all bad, I smoked a great 7 and half pound pork butt and it came out delicious. Next time I’ll post picks!
I just wanted to start with a recap from my last post on this site, right before the start of the series…
All we need to do is stick with the script, don’t over-manage and let the game come to us.
Stick with the starting lineup
- Betts RF R
- T Turner SS R
- Freeman 1B L
- Smith C R
- Muncy DH L
- J Turner 3B R
- Lux 2B L
- Thompson LF R
- Bellinger CF L
Don’t play the bench players, they did nothing to earn playing time.
Barnes, Gallo, CT3 and Alberto should be on the bench for most of the postseason, if not for its entirety.
Let the starting pitchers pitch. No early hooks like Rich Hill almost every time he pitched in the postseason. Don’t put May and Gonso on artificial limits. Let them keep pitching until they look like they’re fading. Don’t even count pitches as pitch counts will likely lead to a bad decision. Now is the time to use your eyes and keep them on the field and off the stats sheet.
So what went wrong?
The Second Spring Training
It started with the last month of the season. When have you ever seen a team hold a Spring Training style tryout to determine the postseason roster? With the playoffs and home-field advantage clinched, the Dodgers decided it would be best to do just that. Instead of getting your players in a rhythm, game after game was a different lineup with CT3 playing at second base, left field and center field. He failed miserably with the bat during that stretch taking at bats away from Trayce Thompson in the process. Trayce wound up playing each game in the postseason anyways, and he would have benefitted from trust from management and playing time down the stretch. They also took away Trayce’s playing time with Joey Gallo, who wasn’t even afforded an opportunity in 4 postseason games.
I questioned rest or rust several times in the last month. Regularly resting your starters knowing full well there was going to be a week layoff wasn’t needed. The offense took their foot off the gas and never got it back. I can see resting your pitchers to some extent, but not the position players. The pitchers were given a 6 man rotation for most of the month and were routinely pulled early for extra rest. Isn’t this conditioning the pitchers to throw fewer pitches, less innings? We’ve heard about building up starters after going on vacation all year, so the reverse must also be true.
Muncy, JT, Trea, Mookie all went cold with extra rest over the final month. Mookie went bowling and Belli decided to show up during the last week of the season. CT3 and Gallo didn’t do anything to deserve a playoff roster spot and Hanser, the one guy on the bench that’s adept at hitting lefties, was left off the roster.
Messing around with the lineup card
They picked the right lineup for opener. A 5-3 win at home and it looked like the Dodgers would roll through the first round against their whipping boys to the South that they shamed all season long. 14-5 against little brother and the Dodgers needing to win just two more games. For some reason Julio was pulled after just 80 pitches. The Dodgers were too afraid to let the NL ERA leader face the middle of the Padres order. Well, the bullpen was rested, no harm no foul, right?
Same lineup for game two and they delivered 11 hits and 4 walks with just 9 K’s. That bested the Padres in all those marks and yet they still managed to lose the game. Kershaw was vintage post-season Kershaw and turned in a perfectly mediocre Kershaw-esque performance. Not horrible, but definitely not great. Just 5 innings on 80 pitches and Kershaw is outta there even though he gave up one run in each of the first 3 innings, then settled in and even pitched a 1-2-3 5th inning. So it’s another 4 innings from the pen. Graterol allowed an unearned run in relief behind Trea Turner miscues and a rusty Treinen gave up a bomb making his first appearance since coming off the IL in a one-run playoff game.
Alright, no big deal, the Padres had to win one of these, so let us go to San Diego and get the job done there. Anderson’s scheduled to pitch, so we should be good to go.
Lineup screwdom and a 2-1 loss. Couldn’t resist f-ing with the lineup, a lefty was on the hill after all. Barnes in for Will after a day off, Will to DH, Muncy for Lux after Lux had 2 hits in the previous game, Taylor for Belli, and Thompson to center. Gonzo turned his “Start” into a bullpen game and they had to come up with another 6 innings of relief. Good thing they put Taylor in there as he went 0-4 with 2 K’s. They had an opportunity to pinch hit for Taylor against a righty in the 6th, but they chose to keep Belli and Gallo on the bench. Hell, they could have given Vargas an AB and subbed immediately subbed him out for Gallo or Belli on defense. Hell, they could have started Gallo instead of Taylor since Gallo was pretty good against Snell in the past. Hell, they could have pinch hit Gallo or Belli for CT3 against a righty and still had Vargas available for a lefty and then sub in another great fielding outfielder later in the game. Maybe Hanser should have been on the roster to start against Snell instead of do nothing Taylor or Gallo.
Well, now it’s game 4, backs up against the wall. Tyler didn’t pitch yesterday, so he’s good to go today. It turns out Tyler was good to go to the tune of 5 innings of shutout baseball on 2 hits and 2 walks on 86 pitches. Tyler was on a shitload of rest. He hadn’t pitched since October 2nd. He said after the game that he felt good and could have thrown 150 pitches. He tossed 123 pitches in a 4-1 win against the Angels during the season while pitching into the 8th. Over his last 5 starts, his high was just 90 pitches. Way to prepare for the postseason!
Bullpen Over-Use
They went to the well one too many times like they’ve done oh so many times before. It started to unravel with Kahnle, who pitched in back to back games just once all season. He shit himself and didn’t record an out. They had Graterol ready, probably a good choice with his propensity to throw ground balls with runners on. He was ready, and only pitched in one game so far. Maybe they wanted to keep the ball away from Trea?
Nah, let’s go with Almonte instead. Double, single, tie game. He comes back and K’s Machado, popped Drury on one pitch. Now, he’s looking like he’s warmed up. Oh shit, the postseason monster reared it’s ugly head – The dreaded unnecessary mid-inning pitching change!
Yency had reverse splits this season, so it’s only natural for this team to take him out against a lefty to put in a cold lefty. And that’s the game! Vesia is one of the wildest pitchers on the team. He is not the answer to bring in with runners on. Par for the course, the lefty doesn’t get the lefty out and coughs up two more runs. Over managing at its finest! And a song I’ve heard oh so many times before.
Curious Roster Construction
The worst part about this is, having another reliever in the bullpen could have been a big help. Especially, after using the bullpen like the only can of aquanet back stage at a Motley Crue concert.
So why was May on the roster? What role did he have? I thought is was weird at the time that they would have so many starting pitchers on the roster while leaving good relievers off the roster. At the very least, Ferguson would have been the second lefty knowing that Heaney would be more of a long man. If you don’t use May in a game where your starter only goes an inning, when the hell are you planning to use him.
Same thing for the bench. Why was Gallo or Vargas on the roster? There was a clear opportunity to pinch hit for Taylor in game 3, but they chose not to. What did Taylor do this season to earn that kind of confidence? He hit less than 200 since coming off the IL in early August. You could have easily made the case to leave CT3 off the roster, except he’s the versatile player on defense. That’s great insurance in case of injury, but he certainly didn’t do a damn thing to earn 2 starts in 4 games.
Why TF do you pull all of your starting pitchers with 80 something pitches? If you’re going to do that, why didn’t you put another reliever on the roster? Instead, you waste a roster spot or two or three, one on a guy that didn’t pitch and the others on guys that you can’t find an at bat for in the closest of games, all three losses! Was roster construction a popularity contest?
The Dodgers Way
This was a great team. They had the talent, so I can only blame who manages the talent to fail to win 3 close games in a row. You say you want to blame the players for not producing? How can you do that when it’s every freaking year, with different players, who’s to blame? What’s the solution to this problem and why hasn’t it been fixed already?
Could it be that the Dodgers way to play baseball is optimized to win in a long season where regression to the mean wins out, but the same way to play baseball is not optimal for winning a short series? This is the most frustrating exit in the entire run of regular season dominance and postseason failure. Someone should pay the price for it. You won the first game of a five game series against a team you beat the crap out of all year and then you go on to lose 3 freaking games by 2 runs or less. It’s just shameful.
Some people say getting hot at the right time is the key to the postseason. So, how is resting players down the stretch is going to get you hot?
Is having a starting pitcher throw to the lineup a 3rd time that detrimental? Moreso, than using a tired reliever? Tyler Anderson had a 1.46 ERA in the 7th inning this season and a 0.00 ERA in the 8th inning this season. But, his worst ERA was in the 6th inning. What does this mean? Is it just a rule of thumb that he can’t pitch in the 6th, but can pitch in every other inning? Does that mean he can never pitch in the 6th in a postseason game even if your eyes tell you his pitching a great game? Even then, with a 3 run and in the process of throwing a freaking 2 hit shutout you turn the game over to a bullpen that’s pitched more than the starters over the first three games. That’s just idiotic.
I can’t say I’m particularly fond of how this team plays baseball. Lux, Betts, Taylor and Belli are some of the fastest guys in the game and only one of them had 20 steals this season, none with 30. But, this team sure knows how to strike out swinging for the fences! So how the hell are you supposed to score runs if you don’t do more on the bases and you don’t put the freaking ball in play? Just take a walk, and hope that HR or Double shows up. This is the worst brand of baseball there is. Especially on a team that has fast guys like Lux, Trea and Mookie.
The Dodgers used to be about fundamental baseball. Field your position, Steal and Hit and Run. Move runners over. I want to see more small ball dammit! They lost 3 freaking close ballgames in this series, and 3 close ones last year against the Braves. Do they learn from it? Hell no. Same approach in every at bat.
So, What do We do Now?
My first reaction was F-it! Blow this up and let the kids play. We certainly have enough of them at the highest levels in the minors and they’re obviously great since AF could spare them to get a guy that can LF every day. We all think they’re great, so they must be and good to go for next season. Andrew’s got a team of scouts, analytics people and any kind of talent evaluator you can imagine. All of this gives him a better-educated guess than we have on evaluating who’s a keeper and who’s trade bait.
The more rational side of me says don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Honestly, there’s some glaring things that need to be addressed this offseason. Obviously, we’ll need to sign a couple of formerly good, injured pitchers that we can use in the second half of the season. But, beyond that, there are some big holes to address.
- There’s a hole in the middle infield because Trea’s is a free agent.
- There’s too many players in the lineup that strike out too much.
- There’s a need for a big, right-handed power hitter to stick in between Muncy and Freeman.
- If Muncy is your best third baseman, it’s time to move on from JT.
The current hitting philosophy isn’t getting the job done in close postseason games. This may be a function of the players, or the result of the hitting coaches. It might just be the manager, or the committee that predetermines how each game is to be played. Figure it out and fix it!
Let’s Face Some Facts…
- Clayton Kershaw is never going to ever be a postseason warrior.
- As good as Dave Robert’s record is in the regular season, it’s pretty bad in the postseason.
- The goal of every sports team is to win the Trophy at the end of the season. Obliterating your division foes en route to a playoff spot is a milestone, not the completed product.
- Choking in the postseason practically every year is a problem that needs to be fixed. The teams have had different players year to year and the constants have been the Manger and AF.
- This system of consensus or committee behind closed doors doesn’t work because no one knows who’s making the decisions so no one is being held accountable.
AF is a good GM. The team wins a ton of games year after year and the minor league system is highly regarded and highly rated by the experts. But, he obviously has some warts if we keep getting eliminated more often than not. With this postseason record, he’s hardly the genius that many believe he is.
He sure looked smart this season when his team won 111 games setting a franchise record along the way and becoming the second team in over 100 years of National League history to win as many. He had one of the highest-rated farm system to draw from at the deadline and did nothing to get a difference-maker at the deadline, much less a player to adequately handle left field. The guys he held onto better produce next year otherwise it’s just a tragic misuse of assets.
Maybe he’s just too damn busy micro-managing Roberts to do his own job effectively. Perhaps he should focus his first job, being a great GM, instead of trying to play multiple positions. If he’s even suggesting who to play, when to play them, or has people to do that, he needs to stop, walk away from this job, or be fired. You can’t effectively be the President of Baseball Operations, GM, Manager, Head Grounds crewman, and ball polisher all at the same time. Real leaders don’t do all the jobs themselves, they hire capable people around them and empower them to be their best. If Doc isn’t 100% making all the game decisions by himself, Andrew and his team of nerds need to butt out or get the hell out.
The reason we lost wasn’t because of luck, or players. Once again, it was mostly poor game management with a dash of poor roster construction and a style of play that that doesn’t allow you to manufacture a run when you need to in a close game
I know that AF and Doc won’t be fired. Somehow there’s no accountability here and it’s frustrating to no end. But, if I’m Kasten, I tell Andrew that his system is flawed and needs to be changed. You can have a meeting with the manager before each game to give him information, but it’s the manager’s responsibility to run the ballclub on the field. If the manager fails again, both of you lose your job, so you better be sure you have the right manager and coaching staff.
Actually, scratch that. If I’m Kasten, I fire the whole lot of them except for Mark Prior and his crew. Now, go get that right-handed power hitter for the middle of the order like you should have done for years and fire Geren and hire someone that can make all the field decisions for Doc.
**Sigh**, different year, same results.
Discussion (27)
Disagree, not disagreeable
LA Times reporter, Dylan Hernandez was not buying what he called AF’s lip service press conference. He believes Freidman needs to realize that some changes need to be made. Freidman on the other hand does not believe the front office did anything wrong, he pointed to the late season injuries to Lux, Taylor and JT. But excuse me Mr. AF. Roster construction for the playoffs was all you. I would have rather seen Kevin Pillar on the bench than Gallo or Alvarez. Neither of whom was used anyway. The pitching staff construction was highly questionable with all of the recovering arms that were on the roster and had been rarely used the last few weeks of the season. I also question the manager who put his team on cruise control instead of stepping on the gas and trying to get some sort of momentum built up. Winning was too easy for this team. Now they know how it feels to lose.
A couple of points:
–AF has been the Maximum Leader of Baseball Operations regardless of title. Brandon Gomes is now his No. 2, much as Farhan once was. The appointment of Gomes clarified the chain of command, but I think we all know that AF doesn’t delegate significant personnel decisions to his underlings. He calls the big shots. Hard to say how much he micromanages Roberts in terms of strategy. (Sort of funny to watch AF hold forth in the postseason press conference, with Gomes sitting there like the proverbial potted plant.)
–As others have noted, the Dodgers led the MLB in both pitching and batting stats, and of course run differential. All of this produced the 111 wins. A full season is not a small sample, and in fact the Dodgers have been a big winner for several years. These facts undermine arguments that the batting coaches or pitching coaches are at fault–or that AF and Roberts are at fault.
–And yet… and yet…. the post-season roster construction was a mess. Gallo and Vargas really did nothing to prove they belonged on the roster–and they never swung a bat. Belli and Taylor weren’t much better. Over on the pitching side, I was glad May was chosen over Kimbrel, but I don’t think he ever got a chance to warm up. It was funny how the Dodgers had a surplus of worthy pitchers and a shortage of worthy position players. When you look at how the Pads, Yankees, Phillies and other teams improved their rosters at the trade deadline, and how the Dodgers did it, who but AF, the guy who calls the big shots, should be held responsible for this?
–Finally, I agree with many here who fault Roberts (or maybe AF?) for some of the pitching decisions. I think Anderson, who was fully healthy, should have pitched game three and should have stayed in the game as long as he was pitching well. Perhaps Kersh should have pitched another inning after retiring nine batters in a row. We can also nitpick the RP decisions endlessly. But let’s consider another big one: AF traded Pollock for Kimbrel–and Kimbrel got one of those long runways to prove he was worthy. Meanwhile, the Pads’ Preller–after adding Soto, Bell and Drury–added Josh Effing Hader. (It looked like a bad move at first… but now it looks pretty smart.)
Looking back, the Pollock-for-Kimbrel deal has to be judged as a mistake. I was OK with it at the time, but Pollock’s truly mediocre 2022 stats would represent an upgrade over what Belli, Gallo, Taylor and Vargas produced..
In years past, AF made bold midseason moves that paid off, getting guys like Machado and Darvish and Sherzer/Trea.
This time he picked up Chris Martin and Gallo.
Philjones, I realize that Doc and AF probably (keeping my fingers crossed) aren’t going anywhere. But, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t. But, I certainly don’t buy the argument that it’s too much trouble to find someone else. I fully agree that the “Too Many Cooks in the Kitchen” philosophy is killing this club. Maybe Stan Kasten is just fine being the Braves all over again.
At some point, fans will become tired of watching them choke in the postseason. If you want to look at this like a businessman, this was a missed opportunity to build the brand and that costs the organization money.
You guys mention arenado, judge, Reynolds. those would be good moves. Like your A. Options but what about the fallback plans the maybe more realistic plans. The B,C even D choices that will still help the team be successful in the regular season and in the playoffs?
Hey Bluto, The Smiths guitarist was Johnny Marr, you had it right. Like all great bands, they couldn’t resolve their artistic differences and were worse apart than they were together.
I have all of the Smiths studio records and none of Morrisey’s. I have two of the Talking Heads records.
I’ve been listening to the Flying Lizards Radio playlist lately and it’s awesome. If you have Spotify, check it out.
I hope you are back in the swing soon Mark. Thanks for being kind enough not to roast me for echoing your opinion with my questions. I love this blog. I love everyone’s take on the issues. This is really the only place where the real issues are discussed. God bless you all and Go Big Blue Wrecking Crew!
I think Dave Roberts is a poor in game manager. In this series, he made several mistakes, mostly around pitching and bullpen management. But Roberts seems to do well managing the clubhouse, maintaining a positive culture and producing in regular season.
Also, my view is that Friedman and co dictate many of the in game moves and strategies. Roberts just signed an extension and will be the manager next year like it or not.
Friedman made some great roster additions this year including Freeman, Anderson, Heaney, Thompson and Martin.
The biggest blows to Dodgers were losing Buehler, Hudson, Gonsolin, and Treinen. But Friedman also whiffed on Gallo, Alberto and extending Taylor. And while his lineup was good in the regular season it was still flawed, top heavy, and filled with way too many swing and miss hitters.
Both Roberts and Friedman deserve credit for the regular season and some blame for the playoff failure. Going 1-3 in playoffs is a disaster.
But the vast majority of the blame is squarely on the starting players who underperformed at the plate, in the field and on the bases.
Still in the regular season, the Dodgers were the best team in baseball this year.
I would keep most of the core roster.
I would resign Trea Turner, Kershaw and Anderson.
Offer reduced salaries with incentives for JT and Bellinger. They would both need to compete in spring for starting jobs.
(JT has been terrible in the last two postseasons hitting about 150 with ZERO extra base hits in the last 15 playoff games)
CT is overpaid but he should return to role player status.
Kimbrel, Gallo, Price, Heaney, Alberto will be gone.
Need to sign a free agent OF/DH and bullpen arm, and bring up youngsters to compete.
And spring training should be used to develop playoff ready approaches to put ball in play and manufacture runs.
I am at home battling my 4th round of COVID. This variant is similar to the first variant I brought back from Hawaii about three years ago. My fever broke in 24 hours, and I am on the upswing. It’s worse than the Omicron Variant, which caused me to have a fever for a couple of hours, and of course, not as bad as the full-blown COVID-19 I had in October 2020.
I was reading the comments, and contrary to what many of you think, what you parrot are opinions, not facts. What is a fact, not an opinion, is that back in the day, when a team went to the WS from each league, the best team (best record) won 52% of the time. Since the expanded playoffs, the best team has won 23% of the time, and now, with the additional expansion of the Wild Card Round, I am guessing that it will go down to the teens. Statistics and Probability (a course that I hated) demonstrates that there are constant anomalies.
In retrospect, Doc should have done some things differently. Andrew Friedman should have done some things differently, but I can look at every team and say that. How do you explain how a team (Phillies) that had no bullpen most of the season, had a horrible defense, and poor pitching most of the season (3.97) ERA suddenly looked like Superman in the playoffs and had a 2.55 Team ERA?
Oh, yeah, I know – “they were built for the playoffs!” Their GM put together a pitching staff that was only capable of a 3.97 Regular Season ERA but was capable of 2.55 in the playoffs and he built it that way.
If you believe that… if they gave you an enema, they could bury you in a shoebox!
Maybe they choked. Maybe Dave Roberts made some bad decisions. Maybe Andrew Friedman made some bad decisions. Maybe Statistics and probability caught up with them. Maybe it was all of the above.
I’d be fascinated to know exactly what the dynamic between Doc and Geren actually is.
Does Doc put himself in charge of motivating the guys (he failed miserably on that one) and almost always listen to Geren when it comes to strategy?
Do they collaborate with Doc having the final say?
Does Doc totally ignore most of what Geren’s input might be?
Geren is considered a pretty good baseball mind by people in the game. I wonder how much Doc takes advantage of that? Or is Geren’s reputation not really deserved.
Questions
How many years in a row have the Dodgers been in the playoffs?
How many World Series have they won in that timespan?
How many have other teams won?
Can you win the World Series without being in the playoffs?
Answer
Make the playoffs every year and win the crapshoot.
Let’s face it front office, Doc is not the man to lead us to the promise land. Agree that Geren and some of the shot caller need to be cut loose, I think Pryor did a phenomenal job with the pitching staff. Last get rid of the hitting coaches we have to go small ball in certain situations, The long ball will show when needed.
jayB, first of all: You can not simply compare wins among the managers you mentioned. Way more games nowadays than ever before. If anything winning percentage is the fair parameter here.
Second: Cox , as Roberts, was a great regular season manager. But in the postseason he made many, many questionable calls and decisions. Just ask some Braves fans who say the same thing about Cox than we do about Doc: Should have won more titles with all that talent. LaRussa and ANderson have won more titles than Doc and I dont frankly see how Roberts will make the deficit up.
Third: Dodgers provided Doc always with a top 3 payroll team and an incredible deep farm. Dont know where the other named teams rank in that categories.
fourth: Do we really want to bring up Cox just to make an excuse for Roberts mistakes ? Do we reallly want to keep him only because Cox was equally unsuccessful in the postseason ? Why not compare Doc to a guy like Tommy who won two titles with a lot less talent and payroll ?
My faith that Roberts will bring us another title is done. He was aided by the Corona shortened season in 2020 when Walker , Kersh , Julio and especially an unconscious Saeger put this team on their backs. And even back then we were just a whisker from losing the NLCS. And if Jansen had not imploded forcing Roberts to go to Julio we do not win in 2020 either.
Give another man a shot to lead the Dodgers. Roberts aint the man .
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here’s JayB. I’m certainly as disappointed and heart broken as the rest of you. However, it is truly amazing how easy it is to make decisions after the fact. B&P, the reason you haven’t heard from me is because you are impossible to argue with. You throw out stuff that makes you look so smart when in fact that is not the case.
An example is your statement about it being better to use Almonte vs Cronenworth. You failed to mention that Cronenworth was 1 for 7 against Vesia with 4 strikeouts which kind of supports the in game decision. There are many more examples like this. Anything to disparage the Manager, who you hate.
It is totally irrational to expect a World Series win every year. Yet some of you do. It is also irrational to expect post season success every year, but some of you do. It is also irrational to expect to get to the post season just because you have a talented team like it is some God given right. Many talented teams miss the post season.
I have presented the argument that several great Managers (Cox, Sparky Anderson, Larussa, etc) have had very talented teams and yet did not have Doc’s regular or post season record during the times they had great talent. No one has ever argued against that point.
Let’s talk post season Managers’ wins. #1 is Joe Torre who has 84 post season wins over 30 managerial years (2.8 wins/year) #2 is Tony Larussa with 70 wins over 37 years (1.9/year). #3 is Bobby Cox with 67 wins over 30 years (2.2/year). #4 is a tie between Jim Leyland 44 wins over 22 years (2.0/year) and Doc with 44 wins over 7 years (6.3/year). Hard to argue 3 times the wins but some of you will.
Doc’s teams have been to the WS 3 times in 7 years and an argument can be made (2017) won 2 of them. His teams have been to the LCS 5 out of 7 times. B&P has argued that the post season is not a crapshoot. I don’t know how anyone can say that when 3 100+ wins teams have been eliminated this year and a 99 win team has been taken to game 5. The NLCS will be played between and 87 and 89 win team. The 2021 WS champs won 88 games. Over the years many wild card teams have won it all.
There has been an argument that AF is not that good. I guess we should have won the WS 7 times to satisfy Scott. As I have said before, I sometimes read what some of you have to say and I just shake my head.
I’ve never met you B&P, but from what I’ve seen here you have a pretty large personality and probably take over most rooms that you walk into.
You tend to do that here also. You have one of those “know it all” attitudes.
I don’t agree with much of anything you say politically and that’s why I’m glad Mark has finally managed to keep most politics away from this blog….because I think you’re the single most interesting commenter here when it comes to baseball discussions. I look forward to all of your Dodger-related commentary because it never fails to stimulate good discussion.
As far as what you posted above, this is what I disagree with…………………………………………..
Not a damn thing.
And yes, please post pics the next time you do a pork butt.
This was written back in June, but really shoots holes in many people’s theories:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2022/06/23/mlbs-new-playoff-format-does-best-team-win-world-series/7693802001/
I didn’t finish up some thoughts from yesterday on proposed changes in the wind:
Dave Roberts isn’t going anywhere. AF isn’t going anywhere.
Doc has his detractors for sure. I’ve been one of them at various times mostly over in-game decisions and pitching moves. The DH has improved his over-managing, as he doesn’t get to double switch. We all have some bitch about something he does, to varying degrees. But if you think he’s going to be canned, you’re dreaming.
* Fans now days are amazing, calling for coaching changes. I think it’s a need for immediate gratification. Win now or you’re gone. College football, especially in the SEC, is a great example. Listening to Alabama fans calling for changes after one loss last Saturday is extraordinary. Nick Saban should be fired. All the assistants should be fired. The stream of logic goes – the players played poorly; mistakes and penalties. So the coordinators were at fault because the players were bad. And who hired the coordinators? Nick Saban. It’s his fault, not the players. He’s 184 and 26 at Alabama and wins a Natty or is in the hunt every year. He just lost his 3rd game in 3 seasons. Get rid of his ass.
Brian Harsin at Auburn is another example of the insanity. He’s a Dead Man Walking. He may get fired any day. He’s a good coach and would be fine at Arizona State or Colorado Because of the environment at Auburn he was considered a bad fit from the get go. The money big boosters never wanted him, tried to make up a story of misbehavior last year so they could fire him for cause and save his buyout, which is around $15 million. The Fat Cats won’t blink about paying that amount to get rid of the guy and then agreeing to funding a bloated contract to his replacement and staff.
* What’s that have to do with Dave Roberts?
For one. if he gets canned, who’s in the wings, ready to take over? Just like some college jobs, some quality candidates don’t want a position where they can’t control personal moves, organizational philosophies, roster make up, line ups and in game desisions. They don’t want to be a talking head and a puppet with the higher ups pulling the strings. How much room Doc has as a Manager of the Dodgers is speculated about but we don’t really know.
* And if a high profile manager of a high profile job gets canned, there better be a candidate locked up ready to take over. A coaching search, interviewing potential candidates and all those trappings won’t cut it for the Dodgers. Chase Utley? JT?
Right or wrong. Like Doc or not. Disagree with removing Anderson an inning early, wanted Belli in center. Wanting more small ball. All of Doc questionable moves? Those are all organizational decisions made by AF and an analytics staff based on team philosophy and stats. Maybe that’s what needs to be reevaluated the winter?
But in 7 years, Doc is 653 and 380. His teams have won 100+ games in 4 seasons and won the Division 6 times with 1, 2nd place. Detractors will say the Dodgers have done this in spite of Dave Roberts. But that’s his resume.
Come Nov 15, it’s likely he will be NL Manager of the Year. Doc beats out Buck Showalter and Rob Thompson.
Like it or not,…………….He isn’t going anywhere.
Early and mid period talking heads (the end came quick) was just amazing. I kinda missed it (came along too late) but even Stop Making Sense is still a fun watch.
Right up until that song with Jonny Marr (did I spell that right?)
Where’s JayB?
Ok a few points. First, Freidman has a GM and has had one since February, Brandon Gomes. Let us also be clear that Gomes in all probability does not operate autonomously. I am pretty certain there is a lot of over-sight from AF. Second. Kershaw pitched one game, he was not vintage Kersh, but he kept his team in the game. In 2020 he pretty much turned his post season narrative around with a solid 4-1 performance in the entire World Series run including 2 wins in the series itself. Yes, they have not won the big games as often as the fans would like, and this particular loss is very irritating. I agree the construction of the roster and not using some resources at hand was very puzzling. I have always questioned Roberts in game strategies. And as long as he continues to manage, most will. He has in many cases, overmanaged and made some real head scratching moves. I read a story on fan nation as to why he replaced Almonte mid at bat. Even the explanation was confusing. But he said he liked the matchup with Vesia V Cronenworth. Bad choice. Change is coming, we all know that.
Pretty much agree, BP.
I do think the Dodgers have done well in the draft. Good group coming up through the system.
Just a thought. What is harder to do, win 111 games or win a World Series? Win 111, of course. Every year somebody wins a WS.
But, I’m over it. Time to move on. The future awaits. But all the analysis is interesting, different perspectives and all.
The problem is and will likely continue to be is…. If the Dodger management had a crystal ball and new the outcome of the last four games and they also had B&P’s analysis from this morning, they would probably still play those four games exactly like they did.
And that’s what we can expect next season.
Even humiliation won’t help.
Great assessment B&P
Maybe it’s just speculative BS, but MLB.com just had this to say about the likelihood of Trea coming back to the Dodgers:
“If Turner is open to remaining on the West Coast, the Dodgers would certainly make sense, after he played the past year and a half in Los Angeles. That said, there has been a lot of talk that the Dodgers are prepared to let Turner walk in order to make a big play for Judge, a scenario that could take the NL West champions out of play for the shortstop.”
Well, that’s a fun thought!
Would Mookie be moved to CF, or would Judge handle it?
FWIW, the article ranks Philadelphia as Trea’s most likely destination, followed by LA and SF.
One final point….with all our regular season success, we may have developed “the smartest guy in the room” mentality. We all know how it ended for Enron….
BP –
I think you nailed it! Some tough questions need to be asked if the Dodgers truly want to have a better playoff narrative. Their organizational model needs some changes if they want to win multiple world championships. You have offered some good options to be considered.
If they don’t make the right changes, the Dodger “brand” ultimately weakens along with the revenue flow that goes with it. This has happened to “brand name” teams in other sports. There are also examples of sports organizations who have made the right changes to reestablish their brand (i.e., Alabama in college football). It will be an interesting off season see what – if anything – happens in the Dodger organization.
Well said! I somewhat sarcastically suggested a blow it up” comment after the NLDS loss and one poster replied it was childish to offer such comment.
“Blow it up” doesn’t imply the entire roster roster is turned over but some laser-focused and surgical changes need to be made. A different approach. a different mindset, different coaching with different messaging.
“Blow it up” means take the end of contract status for JT as an opportunity for him to exit, allow TT to sign elsewhere, possibly non-tender Bellinger and thus let some youth enter the picture. Quit talking ad nauseam about the deep minor league depth and promote some of that talent to the big leagues.
It’s not my money but if I’m Guggenheim I’m asking AF to lower payroll. If nearly $300 million got us to win the NL West
by 22 games and a flame out in the NLDS perhaps a $200 million roster allows the Dodgers to win the division by 3 or 4 games and a chance to get hot in the playoffs. Nothing. ventured= nothing gained.
The off season is going to be interesting. I honestly think we will see an avoidance to any big expensive contracts and an emphasis on trading assets to acquire talent (like that RH bat mentioned) and would not be at all surprised to see some of CT3, Pepiot, Miller, Ferguson, Lux traded for ball players with a track record of good contact and fewer Ks .
If there is any moves on the coaching staff I think we’ll know about that this week or after the WS blackout period for MLB transactions.
AF has to do something to “gin up” some excitement for next year because many Dodger fans are tired of the same ol wash, rinse and repeat of the last post seasons sans 2020.
Buckle up, Go Dodgers!
Welcome to the Andrew Friedman era!
I’ve been saying this for years and been told I don’t understand the genius of Friedman while crushing and humiliating postseason defeats pile up year after year.
It’s the same story almost every year. They boast in spring training about being the best team in baseball and the media writes about them having the best farm system in MLB despite producing 2 position players in 5 plus years and nobody can name a single position player other than Smith and Lux that have come through that vaunted farm system. I still challenge anyone to name one.
They had months to prepare for the postseason given their 20 plus game lead in the division. Months to come up with replacements for injured players, especially with that best farm system and failed to do so.
The pitching strategies were horrendous. Starting pitchers pulled after 5 innings when tossing shutouts, scripted matchups using mediocre relievers against some of the games best hitters. Openers and bullpen games in the playoffs.
To be fair they did win it in 2020, thankfully but they’ve never learned from their mistakes.
Starting pitching is the key to success not only in the regular season but especially in the playoffs. Starters must go deep into games and bullpenbused sparingly to win baseball games in October. Other teams doing it too is not an excuse. Playoffs are variable and thr extended postseason format is not an excuse.
I’ve been saying this for years and it continues. They’ll win 100 plus games next year and do it all over again, and again and again and again. How many horrible crushing postseason losses will Friedman rack up before they are willing to give someone else a shot?
Amen!