Reviewing the Deadline

Mark’s going to be busy this week, so I’m going to try to fill a couple of days with posts while he’s out.  It’s not going to be easy for me as I’m starting a six months Cyber Security program tonight, so I’m going to have a little less time going forward.  Hopefully, OldBear and Evan will help fill the void to give our daily readers something to read and comment on.

Here Goes…

Luis Castillo

Leading up to the deadline, we all had opinions on how to improve the team.  For the most part, I was in on Castillo, not because we necessarily needed a pitcher in the here and now, but because he’s an elite pitcher, and it seems we’ve been in on trade rumors for him for a couple of years now.  I thought at the time that he would arguably be an improvement over someone already on the staff and would provide relief to our bullpen by pitching more innings than pitchers that we currently have. He’s a hard-throwing righty that would help balance a lefty-heavy rotation and would provide insurance for pitchers that will get injured, fail to come back from an injury like Walker Buehler, or regress as the season went on.

Juan Soto

Another guy we really didn’t need but would improve the team with somewhat of a question mark in LF at the time of speculation.  He’s an elite player, and Andrew says he’s always going to do due diligence on elite players. He’s no doubt a great player, and at the time, I wanted him and for the Dodgers to make a big splash. In the end, the Padres were willing to give up a lot more than we were.

Ian Happ

Ian Happ is a guy I really wanted to solidify Left Field.  I identified him before Juan Soto became available, and he’s also someone that can be used at other positions if needed. On defense, he plays all three outfield positions and has played everywhere in the infield besides shortstop.  On offense, he’s a switch hitter that kills lefties and more than holds his own against righties.  He also has some pop and can steal and run the bases.

The Eric Effect

I argued against David Robertson and Andrew Chafin.  Both are soft tossers for the most part.  Chafin relies on a slider, and Robertson relies on a cutter.  Both had very good stats, according to Eric.  He doesn’t often tell you what stats, but we can assume that means OPS and not having noticeable splits.  That seems to be his DaVinci code. Personally, I don’t think OPS is all that great for comparing pitchers. I still think ERA does a better job conveying a pitcher’s contribution than OPS against. You can find plenty of pitchers that have a lower ERA and higher OPS than a counterpart, and the main job of a pitcher is to prevent runs. As an example, if you give up a double and nothing else in an inning, you wind up with a 1.0 WHIP, a 0.00 ERA, a 250 Average against, and a .750 OPS against. The first number says “Good Job,” the second number says “Elite,” the third number says “Meh,” and the fourth number says “You suck.” If you’re a reliever, you accomplished your task. You got your three outs and didn’t give up a run.

I honestly felt that neither pitcher that Eric suggested would be a huge upgrade or even make an impact on the team, and I thought the live arms have a higher upside. I also thought there was a reasonable amount of risk with both of them.  Robertson is old and undersized and wasn’t very good the last couple of seasons. I thought he might be due to fall back to earth some, and I was also concerned about his blown saves.  Chafin’s been a solid middle reliever lefty for most of his career and is the poster boy for inconsistency. He’s never on a team that’s competing for the playoffs. In fact, Chafin has a total of one inning pitched in the postseason across four games.  How does that even happen?  Not the kind of guy I wanted to spend prospect capital to acquire. He’s basically an older Justin Bruihl without the split gap.

What Happened

Well, Eric was right in that the Dodgers did go after some bullpen help.  He was wrong about who that was going to be.  I didn’t think the Dodgers needed help in the pen at the deadline with all the pitchers due to come back.  But apparently, the cost for Chris Martin was too cheap for Andrew to pass up when he traded the future DFA (Zach McKinstry for 1+ years of Chris Martin. This amounts to getting him for free. Oddly enough (Not Really), Chris Martin has been better than either of Eric’s guys.

The Results

We all know that Castillo wound up with Seattle, and Soto wound up with the Padres.  The Cubs held onto Ian Happ (I’m Devastated!), the Tigers held onto Chafin, and the Phillies sacrificed the future to get a chance at a Wild Card spot.

Juan Soto

Since coming over to the Padres, Soto has been very good but very short of the Ted Williams comp that he was supposed to be.  The Padres are two games under 500 since he joined the team. He’s not exactly pushing them over the top at this point.

Luis Castillo

With the Mariners, he’s 1-1 since the trade, while the M’s have won 3 of 4 of the games he started.  A very good deal for the Mariners to add an Ace that’s averaged about 6.5 innings per start with an ERA just above 3.00.  Not bad, but not Max Scherzer last year either. I think the price was much steeper than Scherzer since we got Trea Turner, the real gem in the deal.

Ian Happ

Ian didn’t get traded.  Instead, the Cubs chose to retain his services, and he’ll probably get a qualifying offer/draft pick compensation, or they’ll try to retain his services this offseason.  Since the deadline, he’s got a very nice slash line of 292/333/569/903 with four bombs and six doubles.  That would have been a very nice pickup that wouldn’t require a platoon.  I’ll call this a swing and miss from AF as he’s been slightly better than Juan Soto since the deadline and would give the same or better production than the Gallo/Trace platoon that we have in his place without so many K’s.

David Robertson

David wound up getting traded to the Phillies for Ben Brown, who is now their number 7 prospect. Since the trade, Robertson has been very good/excellent for the most part pitching to a 2.08 ERA.  But he does have a loss and a blown save in the process.  File this one under an expensive potential improvement for a problem that didn’t exist. Kimbrel has the same net results with worse stats. But, it wouldn’t have an effect on the win or loss column.

Andrew Chafin

Chafin didn’t get traded.  It’s hard to figure out why unless the Tigers think they’ll turn the corner next year and feel like Chafin will be a valuable piece for them.  Other than that, he might have been dangled out there and not received an acceptable offer.  Honestly, Andrew Chafin, in my mind, was the least useful out of any potential trade target.  Do we need another lefty like we need a hole in our heads?  Since the deadline, he’s been a bust.  He has no record, no saves, no holds, nothing but giving up runs in each game of a recent 3-game stretch from Aug 13 to 17.  File this under dodged a bullet.

To Be Fair…

I want to be fair here.  David Robertson has been better than Kimbrel since the trade deadline.  So, I’ll nod my head to Eric on that “according to the stats,” he looks better.  But, what I kept saying to Eric, is it depends on what stats…

Craig Kimbrel

During the same period, Kimbrel has been worse than David Robertson in terms of ERA.  But, look at the results.  He’s 0-1 with three saves and one blown in 8 games.  Does that sound familiar?  Robertson is also 0-1 with three saves and one blown in 8 games.  The difference is that the Phillies needed Roberson; we didn’t.  And we certainly didn’t need to send over a power pitcher that is currently the Phillies’ number 7 prospect. The funny thing is Kimbrel has been our worst reliever since the deadline, not counting Cleavinger, who’s no longer with us. But he’s been better than Chafin since the trade deadline.

For Reference

Here are our outfielders for the last 30 days.  You can make an argument that the Gallo / Thompson platoon is doing a better job than Soto or Happ.

Here are our Starting Pitchers for the last 30 days.  Castillo would have possibly helped by pitching in the place of Pepiot.  But, now that May is back, it would have made little sense to acquire Castillo.  We just didn’t need another starting pitcher, and May, Anderson, Gonsolin, Heaney, Urias, and May have all been better than Castillo.  Most likely, Kershaw will also be better.  But Castillo would have been under control for next year as well.  I still think we’re better off by not trading for him, it’s hard to tell right now, but the cost was steep as the Mariners gave up two shortstop prospects and two right-handed pitching prospects.  I just can’t see how it would have made sense to trade that many prospects based on the results so far and the pitching that’s still due to come back.

Here are our Relief Pitchers for the last 30 days.  Cleavinger and Reyes are gone, Kimbrel might be improving, and Jake Reed is in the minors and is available for several more years of control.  Sorry Eric, but the verdict is in.  We didn’t need either of “Your Guys.”  We have seven guys that I said might be better.  Turns out I was right.  Plus, there are more guys on their way back from the IL.

Robertson is a good pitcher, but we just didn’t / still don’t need him. By the stats, Chris Martin was clearly worse than Roberson, but AF’s team found something in him they were willing to gamble on and won big time (So Far). This goes to show that stats are important, but they aren’t everything.