- Joey Gallo – Gold Glove Defender in LF, Elite Arm, Excellent Base Runner, 1.038 OPS as a Dodger. He was 2-3 yesterday with a Walk, outstanding catch, laser throw, and impressive baserunning. When a RHP is throwing, you can’t keep Gallo off the field… based upon what I have seen so far.
- The Dodgers Bullpen – The Dodgers are now tied for second in Bullpen ERA behind the Yankees and the Astros, who both are at 3.01. The Dodgers are at 3.05, and with all the reinforcements coming, they just might be #1 before the season is over.
- Ryan Pepiot – Best start ever. Maybe he stays as a starter. If he keeps the walks down, he’s a force.
- Cody Bellinger – Just when you have him dead and buried, he crawls out of the grave. He’s not going anywhere… this season. Thompson is a good CF’er, but Bellinger owns CF!
- Trayce Thompson – He has been a great find… no question, but he’s not hitting .400 – he’s hitting .278. His career BA is near where Cody is hitting RIGHT NOW! Maybe Trayce has finally figured it out at age 31. I hope so, but there is a real likelihood of regression.
- Max Muncy – He has a 20-game hitting streak now, but a few days ago, fans wanted to ship him to the Arctic Circle. My, how times change!
- FLASH: Craig Kimbrel is unhittable with a 7-run lead!
- The Dodgers own Sandy Alcantra, and maybe that helped improve Tony Gonsolin’s Cy Young hopes. If Gonsolin can win 18 to 20 games and keep his ERA, WHIP, etc., close to where they are now, then Tony could be Cy. The fact that Alcantra pitches for a bad team hurts him!
- I am headed to Las Vegas this afternoon (Cannabis Show) and will not be posting maybe until Sunday as my son gets married on Saturday. Hopefully, Bear, Evan, and Bulldogs, etc., will have it covered. I will post it for them.
- Look at this: Dodger Starter’s ERA: May – 0.00/Heaney – 1.77/Gonsolin – 2.12/Urias – 2.40/ Kershaw – 2.64/Anderson – 2.73. All six have sub-3.00 ERAs. Has that ever happened before? I know, White and Buehler also were starters as is Pepiot!
- Remember when the Yankees were the best team in baseball with a .700 PCT? Now the Dodgers have a .700 Winning Percentage, and the Yankees have a .607.
- I feel bad for Carson Fulmer… he has improved… but not enough.
- Blake Treinen pitched a clean inning last night and struck out the side, so I guess you could call it a perfect inning.
- Miguel Vargas keeps knocking… 2-4 today and is now hitting .296.
- James Outman has really sucked since going back to OKC… as in “tanked!”
- I am going to discontinue the Future Dodgers Down on the Farm Coverage. I don’t have enough bandwidth. If someone wants to volunteer to do so, let me know. Otherwise, there are lots of places to get that info, including right on the front page of this blog. I still will note outstanding performances.
- Who will get healthy and who won’t? We should see the Bazooka this week. Maybe Kershaw and Treinen in a week or so… then it’s a crapshoot: Almonte? Gonzalez? Duffy? Kahnle? Of the last four, I think we will see 50% of them. Who? I have no clue! If they make it back, how effective will they be? That’s the bigger question.
- Carry on…
Rant & Rave Monday
Joey Gallo – Gold Glove Defender in LF, Elite Arm, Excellent Base Runner, 1.038 OPS as a Dodger. He was 2-3 yesterday with a Walk, outstanding catch, laser throw, and impressive baserunning. When a RHP is throwing, you can’t keep Gallo off the field… based upon what I have seen…
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Disagree, not disagreeable
Aug. 22: RHP Reyes Moronta claimed off waivers by D-backs
Moronta was designated for assignment by the Dodgers on Saturday. In 22 appearances this year, he had a 4.18 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
LHP Clayton Kershaw (lower back pain)
Expected return: Late August/early September
Kershaw threw a three-inning simulated game at Dodger Stadium on Aug. 22. He threw “about 30 pitches,” per manager Dave Roberts, and “was sharp,” with his fastball sitting around 89-90 mph. Kershaw is set to throw a four-inning simulated game in Miami on Aug. 27, and if he comes out of that feeling well, he’ll be activated for his next turn in the rotation, which would likely come in the Aug. 30-Sept. 1 series against the Mets in New York. (Last updated: Aug. 22)
In his last 7 games, Bickford has given up 5 earned runs in 8.2 innings. Doc has kept running him out there even though he is not pitching at all like he did last year. He has also given up 9 homers this year. But this one is on the batters as much as it is Bickford.
It seems like Doc does this sometimes. Brings in one of the worst relievers and just lets him kill the game. It’s like he gives up on some games. Oh well the Dodgers have a big lead over everyone. So who cares in this situation.
Doc out!
Bickford is pitching himself right off of the roster. Urias with no support again. Part of the problem, 1-4 had 2 hits in 8 innings. Bickford gives up 3 in the 9th and they are down 4-0. Julio deserved better. They did little against Lauer and nothing against the pen.
I’ve never been much of a fan of the 3 true outcomes types. But, here we are with Gallo contributing and Muncy with another couple of years in Blue and it makes all the sense in the world.
I have a love-hate relationship with Max, but lately, it’s been all love. He’s on a serious hot streak since getting right. I was actually very happy and excited to hear that he was extended for another year, with two years of control and what seems to be a severe underpay. He’s the kind of guy that would rather take less money and win rings instead of selling out. Thank you Max, you’re very close to the tippy top of my list of favorite players.
It will be interesting to see if this has any effect on Justin Turner’s tenure. Right now, I would pick up or renegotiate his contract for next year. He’s shown enough to keep him around for another year. I would love to see him retire a Dodger and join the coaching staff. His career is a story of the little engine that could. From mediocre utility to guy to borderline star and heart and soul of the team is a story that young players can aspire to achieve in their own careers. And that is an inspirational story.
The team is less of a home team to root for on the way to another ring. It’s a love affair as I recognize the team as a whole is in the conversation for one of the greatest teams ever assembled. I watch and appreciate the rarity of it all especially with the depth. I can’t remember a team where 1-40 is more where no one is not expendable. They’re all very good players, either now, or in the future and wouldn’t want to cut any of them if not for the extraordinary circumstances related to the rest of the talent on this team.
I’m going to relish the rest of the season knowing what a rarity this very special team is historically. They really need this ring so everyone remembers how special it surely is.
Mark. Tell your son congrats!
Looking at Yanks vs Mets. Neither are lookin so great. Nooooo problem! Well it’s only top of the 3rd. Judge’s HRs aren’t HRs in other parks. Pitching ain’t so fantastic. Teams out of contention look better.
Brewers put LHP Aaron Ashby on the IL today with shoulder inflammation. So someone else will start Wednesday’s series finale at Dodger Stadium
10:10 PM ET
Brewers (64-56)
Dodgers (84-36)
SP Eric Lauer L
8-5 3.58 ERA 125.2IP 123K 45BB
SP Julio Urias L
13-6 2.40 ERA 127.2IP 123K 26BB
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
SS Trea Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
DH J. Turner R
3B Max Muncy L
LF Chris Taylor R
2B Gavin Lux L
CF C. Bellinger L
Clear-day
0% Rain
73° Wind 5 mph Out
08/22/22 Los Angeles Dodgers activated RHP Brusdar Graterol from the 15-day injured list.
08/22/22 Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Ryan Pepiot to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
Dodgers and MMuncy agreed in a one year contract extension.
In reading the Bluto’s link above on Kimbrel’s dilemmas there was some interesting stats that some writers have come with to judge pitching. I thought we had too many stats, but apparently I was wrong. Here they are pertaining to Kimbrel’s performance this year.
“According to Eno Sarris’ model, Kimbrel is currently is a top-ten reliever by stuff; by Pitching+, which combines stuff, command, and miscellaneous variables like platoon splits, he’s in the top 20. On the other side of the internet, Cameron Grove’s model has Kimbrel’s as the 11th-best pitcher in baseball, period, with only his curveball command worse compared to last season. Not only are Kimbrel’s underlying numbers good, but so are the underlying numbers of those underlying numbers.”
I agree with Mark Twain with his quote “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” . As everyone knows if one massages the numbers enough you can always validate your point of view. Stats are important, but there’s no way Kimbrel passes the eye test (excluding yesterday’s clean inning with a seven run lead and it was the Marlins). Let’s see what happens with him. With the lead the Dodgers have they can afford to give Kimbrel all the opportunities necessary to keep his spot on the team for the postseason. It would be huge if he could.
philjones. I thoroughly enjoyed on your analysis and possible remedies to repair Cody’s swing next year. It all seems logical. So, my question is why haven’t the coaches and/or Cody considered incorporating some of these solutions? Like I have said in the past “something about some thing ain’t right”
Carry on.
Kershaw will not go on a minor league rehabilitation assignment, Roberts said, paving the way for the All-Star starter to rejoin the Dodgers’ rotation once active rosters expand from 26 to 28 on Sept. 1.
Roberts said Kershaw will throw a bullpen in the coming days, followed by a 3- or 4-inning simulated game against teammates at Dodger Stadium. If all goes well, that will be the extent of Kershaw’s rehab from his latest lower back injury.
Glad to see Pepiot turn it around.
Dodgers farm system ranked second in the latest rankings.
Cody Bellinger will be back in 2023. Just too much upside and with the shift gone his offense takes off. The defensive skill set is elite.
I’m guessing Justin Turner returns. He’ll want to be back. What that looks like, no idea. But he can still help the Dodgers win games. But he’s a fan favorite and for years, along with Kershaw, the face of the Dodgers.
Obviously, Trea Turner needs to be re-signed. His latest comments definitely say he wants to continue his career in LA. His comments are a huge statement about the organization, the fans and the environment.
What the Dodgers are doing is nothing short of amazing. Elite roster, leading the majors in wins and with a great farm system to boot. The revenue stream is on another level, excitement and attendance off the charts.
Max Muncy is definitely back and that’s a big deal moving forward. One more threat in a line-up full of threats should bode well for the playoffs.
The Dodgers are obviously looking ahead with Duffy with an option in place so Mark may be on target. There is definitely a plan.
Gallo is glad to be in LA. Dodgers are glad to have him. How many players impact a game with their glove, arm and bat in one day? A really good athlete with speed and defensive prowess, he can change a game with a swing.
I’ve always been amazed at how much Dustin May’s ball moves, not to mention the velocity, his ability to pitch. I’m thinking we’re looking at a big time, elite starter for years to come.
On another note. Padres gave up 4 players for Josh Hader. Including two mid level prospects. Padres announces Hader is “getting a break” from closing after giving up 6 runs, walking 5 and blowing a save in his first 3 1/3 innings as a Padre.
I’m frustrated with Kimbrel. But he’s been better than Hader for a couple months. And we didn’t give up 4 players to get him.
I can’t help but think Preller is a dead man walking in SD.
I’m glad Muncy is proving me wrong. It was almost exactly, to the day, when I said I had enough that he began to turn it around. We need THIS Muncy in the playoffs. So I hope he can continue playing at this level going into October.
There was a good article in the Athletic this weekend describing the mechanical changes he has made. I hope his issues are all mechanical and not injury related. It appears the injury did lend to the mechanical issues but it doesn’t appear to be causing him any discomfort any longer. Having “MVP” candidate Muncy verses “hitting 75 points under his weight Muncy” is not a small thing in the playoffs. Sitting at 84-36, imagine what the Dodgers record would be if we had MVP candidate Muncy all year? We might be at 90 wins. Not like the ultimate win total matters, at this point. But I do think we are looking much stronger going into the playoffs this year than last. Assuming no major injuries pop up. And assuming the team uses their massive division lead to keep our arms fresh.
I miss the 40 man roster expansion. The Dodgers are going to have to make some tough choices with the upcoming roster crunch. Alberto may not be much of a bench piece but he brings a lot to the locker room. And I still think there is MLB potential is Jacob Amaya. Despite his struggles after moving up to AAA. They both could be gone soon. I’m sure every other team is baseball wishes they were so deep to have such a problem.
Here is the article.
https://theathletic.com/3520961/2022/08/19/dodgers-max-muncy-swing/?source=user_shared_article
Hey Mark, congrats on your son getting married. Enjoy!
DFA Depth List
1. EAlvarez
2. JReed
3. AJackson
4. JBruil
5. PBickford
6. JAmaya
* I’m not ready to start marinading my crow just yet over my suggestion yesterday to never hit Gallo and Belli back to back in the line up. But it is great to see their production yesterday. Combined 3 for 7 with only 2 K’s. But I need to see more before I’m convinced they should hit back to back. This season Gallo strikes out 47% and Bellinger 30%. But the it may be unavoidable. Thompson, who I lobby for against RHP is at 39% whiff rate, CT3 at 41%. That’s a lot of swings and misses at the bottom of the order. I personally like Lux in the 9 hole for a number of reasons. One is he’s hitting .278 with only a 21% K rate hitting 9th and I like him in front of the top of the order the 2nd time through.
* Like Bellinger, Gallo is really good athlete, as we all see. If you have never had the opportunity to watch Gallo take BP on the field, you have missed a show. I saw him a few years ago in Arizona and I thought we would run out of baseballs. Moonshots over everything. But he has some other skills. He’s been good since joining the Dodgers. Maybe LA and our guys suit him better than NY? He’s hitting .267 for us with 3 homers but still strikes out 47% of his AB;s. That’s just who he is but I like the .267 A few more of these performances may keep Gallo on the playoff roster. I hope so. I like the guy.
* Pepiot settled in and gave us some nice innings. He shows great promise but has a ways to go to command the baseball.
* That throw home or wherever it’s destination by Brian Anderson in the 8th was one of the worst I’ve ever seen. He air mailed everybody and it landed where elephants go to die. WTF?
* Joe Davis made a nice statement about trying to stay sharp to the end while still getting rest. He said “stay ready so you don’t have to get ready.” I like that.
* I really like the effort this team shows. They play the game the right way. Freddie’s effort double was one example. He wasn’t rubbing it in with a big lead. He just hustled. That’s good baseball.
* Joe and Orel talked about the competence and thoroughness of the entire Dodger organization. That’s what sustained winners DO. The attention to detail in every area. It sounds similar to Alabama football under Nick Saban. I’m reading a new book out about Saban’s CEO abilities and attention to details. It’s written by John Talty and is titled “The Leadership Secrets of Nick Saban”. I think it’s a worthwhile read of anybody who runs an organization including a business or coaches anything. Even if you don’t like Saban or Alabama it is very informational.
Was playing music yesterday so I missed the game. I did watch the condensed game when I got home. Nice win. Yes, the Marlins are a weak hitting team, but you still have to shut them down and Pepiot did that. deGrom in the Hall? Not a chance. He is 34 years old, and he has 79 total victories. Just because you have had injury issues that derailed you career doesn’t mean you are getting a pass into the Hall. deGrom, as good as he is, is no Koufax.
I think I lost a post?
As long as the shift applies equally to all teams, OK!
More giddyup. Nice.
https://twitter.com/jokeylocomotive/status/1561520907788488704?s=21&t=4jHQygoyPOFgzgsFMeFg5g
News From Internet:
You may hae noticed a change in Muncy’s batting approach. A little rocking or shuffling before he swings. Fabian Ardaya at the Athletic ($$$$$) takes a look at this and how it helps:
https://theathletic.com/3520961/2022/08/19/dodgers-max-muncy-swing/?source=user_shared_article
Bobby Miller’s first stat-line from AAA
5.2 IP | 9 H | 5 R | 3 ER | BB | 3 K – 88 pitches/61 strikes
Not a ton of swing and miss through first 5 innings, but was really efficient. Kind of ran out of steam and had some bad luck in the 6th.
The Athletic ($$$$$) on Evan Phillips development into ace reliever.
https://theathletic.com/3510167/2022/08/16/dodgers-evan-phillips/
Keep an eye on Racho’s Yunior Garcia, Friday night was a huge night for the Dodgers prospect. 5-5, 2B, 3 HR, 6 RB. His first long ball from that game was worthy of a rousing applause. Per the club’s Trackman device, Git came off the bat at 110 mph and traveled a projected 489 feet, a reported club distance record.Through 12 games in August, the first baseman/designated hitter has slashed a gaudy .453/.482/.811. His 24 hits match his totals from April and May combined.
https://www.milb.com/news/dodgers-yunior-garcia-hits-three-home-runs-rancho-cucamonga
FanGraphs on the Dodgers’ 22 year old Ben Harris, who they call the best under-the-radar MILB prospect.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-ben-harris-became-the-best-under-the-radar-pitching-prospect-in-mlb/
Top Korean HS RHP prospect Shim Jun-Seok is not entering the KBO Draft, which would certainly mean that he is aiming to sign with an ML club. Shim is also a Boras Corporation client.
Baseball America’s midseason rankings: ($$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2022-mlb-midseason-organization-talent-rankings/
The Skinny: Just as they do in the majors, the Dodgers possess both tremendous star power and remarkable depth in their farm system, and the lower levels of the Dodgers system are loaded with power pitchers, middle infielders with potent bats and power-hitting outfielders.
Justin Choi on the complex problem that is Craig Kimbrel:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/craig-kimbrel-is-multiple-dilemmas-in-one-pitcher/
From FutureDodgers:
LA Dodgers’ right-hander Peter Heubeck sits 89-91 with the fastball shows good athleticism on the mound and has a solid low 80’s breaker. If there’s a velo bump this guy will be yet another solid arm for the Dodgers
Ben Clemens on the Dodgers injury situation:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-and-astros-face-injury-woes/
Baseball America Podcast on midseason org rankings:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2022-midseason-organization-talent-rankings-podcast/
RHP Edgardo Henriquez, who left his last start with what appeared to be an elbow injury, was officially placed on the IL.Rancho’s game notes stated he’s done for the season—a very unfortunate end to the 2022 campaign for one of the Dodgers’ most exciting young arms.
Ben Clemens Chat:
Joe: I’m pretty sure NYY will be fine…. right?
Ben Clemens: Definitely funny how well Gallo is playing in LA though ‘Joey Gallo is a better hitter than Andrew Benintendi’ is not a controversial take
Matthew: What’s up with the playoff odds loving the NL? Eyeballing the world series vs lcs odds, it looks like all of the NL teams are overrated. For instance, the Mets are favored to win the lcs 27% of the time and the ws 17% (i.e. 60% favorites to win the WS if they make it), the Phillies are at 6.2% and 3.1%, the Yankees are at 25% and 10%, and the Rays are at 5.9% and 2.1%…
Ben Clemens: It’s because any NL team that wins the CS won’t have to play the Dodgers in the WS, while AL teams have to play the Dodgers most of the time. I think it’s just fine? The odds aren’t perfectly precise or anything, they’re not trying to be. Dan runs his separate series-by-series odds in the playoffs to account for hte way the rosters work then. As a rough ballpark, the NL being likelier to win the WS seems fine to me
Mets fan: Assuming Degrom stays healthy and continues to perform for the rest of the season, how much do the last two partial seasons contribute to his HOF candidacy?
Ben Clemens: If deGrom finishes this season at this health level, has one more Cy-ish season, and reaches 10 ML seasons, I think he’s a slam dunk. He’s modern-day Sandy Koufax, with different problems but the same wildly electric peak
Vin: is degrom worth $50 million a year if he’s only going max 90 pitches?
Ben Clemens: iiiiinteresting…If I could guarantee he’d make 25 starts, I think so! He’s just soooooooo good
SS Rayne Doncon has been on fire over the last two and a half weeks in the ACL, hitting .396/.463/.875 (239 wRC+) with six home runs since July 30th. He’s raised his season-long OPS 185 points and wRC+ 47 points in that time. Look for him to be at Low-A next season, he’s questionable to stay at SS as he’s split his time (contra Diaz) at SS/2B.
All 6 Starting pitchers with a Sub-3 ERA is absolutely crazy. But, what about an entire pitching staff with a Sub 3 ERA?
The only pitchers currently on the staff with an ERA above 3.00 are Bickford, Martin, and Kimbrel and Martin has a Sub-2 ERA since joining the Dodgers.
The Dodgers could go with a 13-man staff in the post-season, all with a Sub-3 ERA if Treinen and Graterol can lower theirs just a little bit…
May 0.00
Kershaw 2.64
Anderson 2.73
Urias 2.40
Gonsolin 2.12
Treinen 3.00
Graterol 3.35
Phillips 1.31
Heaney 1.77
Price 2.55
Vesia 2.70
Almonte 1.15
Ferguson 0.44
As far as who’s coming back and how effective they’ll be? They’ll probably be more effective than they have been in the recent past because they’re well rested and they won’t be overworked.
As mentioned previously, Brusdar, Kershaw, Treinen, Kahnle, Duffy, and V-Gone are all throwing either bullpens to prepare for rehab assignments, or are pitching in rehab assignments. There’s also Almonte. There’s little chance that all of them make it back this year. There’s simply too many good arms that are currently on the pitching staff. The toughest decisions are going to be who to activate and who to DFA.
At some point, even if someone that’s currently on the DL looks good enough to pitch, they won’t be able to because it would require a corresponding DFA. Let’s look at Duffy as an example. Just to get him on the roster, you might have to DFA a guy like Jake Reed and option a guy like Alex Vesia, or Caleb Ferguson to the minors. Is he going to be a better option in the bullpen than Vesia or Ferguson? Probably not. Is it worth it to give up 5 years of control on Jake Reed just to get Duffy in 1/3 of the remaining games in relief, plus 5 or 6 postseason games? I would also say probably not, especially when there are better options.
For Jorge, I was surprised to see that Danny Duffy has a club option remaining on his contract. Could he be next year’s Tyler Anderson? His option is set at $7M next year, which is $1M less than they’re paying Anderson this year. With Urias and most likely Kershaw already in the rotation from the left side, and Gonsolin and May from the right side we already have 4 guys in the rotation without considering Duffy, Pepiot, Buehler, Miller, Grove, Stone and Jackson. I don’t see Anderson coming back as the Dodgers have so many cheaper options. After all, they can use some of that money to help them re-sign Trea. And there’s also that former Cy Young winner that’s been in Limbo for the last year and a half.
Muncys streak is an ‘on base streak’, not a hitting streak. Great to see Pepiot have that great game but it was against a terrible hitting team.