Random Thoughts

A few days ago, Bluto posed the following:

“I mean if you are evaluating players from a far then you have to be down on prospects when they fare poorly. But what’s the difference between being down and writing off?

And what does writing off mean? Does it mean moving down in the prospect list? Or removing altogether?”

I am sure that my opinion of “being down” vs. writing off would not be the same as those much more experienced talent evaluators. There are very few players that I would ever write off before they were released. To be sure, the only determination that matters is the team’s. I am sure that there were many who wrote off my son before he made it. I am sure that most had written off Erik Kratz before he made it to his first ML roster at 30. There are dozens of those type of players.

One example for a player written of for me is 2015 2nd round draft pick Mitchell Hansen. He quickly became a favorite of mine. His status as a top prospect dimmed very quickly, but I never gave up on him until he was released. NYY signed him quickly thereafter, but he was released again in January 2019 by NYY and has not been picked up since and so I would consider him written off.

Jeren Kendall could very well find himself in the same situation after this year. His prospect star is very much tarnished, but he has tools that could make him a player at some future date, so I have not yet written him off.

Some players are considered organizational depth and can find themselves moving from team to team hoping for that proverbial chance. As long as they are employed, they are not written off. Look at any AAA and AA roster and you will find these type of players.

Yesterday BellingerBuehler wrote “In the minors as far as pitching is concerned and again stat wise the only one with a decent amount of innings pitched that looks good stat wise is Marshall Kasowski 24.1 innings pitched 41 strikeouts which computes to 15.2 strikeouts per 9 innings and no home runs allowed with a 1.15 WHIP. I’d like to see him get called up to see what he has in the big league”.

I brought up Marshall and a second pitcher who I believe will be a better long-term option…Jordan Sheffield. Nobody has ever questioned Jordan’s arm, but his status as a top of the rotation starter has always been questioned by scouts. From the day he was signed, most evaluators thought his best chance was as a reliever. Late last year, Jordan started that transition and was added to the AZL Fall League Roster as a reliever. This year, Jordan has been a reliever exclusively. He started at Rancho and was dominant. He threw 17.1 innings with a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, 11 BB and 26 K in a famously known hitters league, California League. He was promoted to Tulsa on May 15 where he has been even more At Tulsa he has been even better. In 10 games and 11.2 IP, Jordan has allowed 4 hits, 5 walks, with 17 K. He has a 0.77 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. He may not be the strike out machine that Kasowski is, but 43 in 29.0 IP is still pretty good (13.3 per 9 inning). Jordan has been better in high leverage situations this year, and if he ever obtains solid command and control, he will be a great late inning high leverage reliever. Marshall Kasowski or Jordan Sheffield. I am hopeful that both will be considered for relief roles inn 2020, but I do not think 2019 is the year.

There has been a lot of conjecture as to what the Dodgers will do (trade) to improve their odds against LHP. With the lead they currently enjoy in the NL West there is very little chance they will relinquish that lead. With good hitters against LHP, Corey Seager and AJ Pollock, the fortunes against LHP should improve. But just in case, I thought that I would look at potential playoff teams and their roster of LHP.

Colorado:
Jake McGee LHRP

Arizona
Robbie Ray LHSP, Andrew Chafin LHRP, T. J. McFarland LHRP

San Diego
Joey Lucchesi LHSP, Eric Lauer LHSP, Logan Allen LHSP, Robbie Erlin LHRP

Milwaukee
Alex Claudio LHRP, Josh Hader LHRP

Cubs
Cole Hamels LHSP, Jon Lester LHSP, Jose Quintana LHSP, Mike Montgomery LHRP, Kyle Ryan LHRP

St. Louis
Andrew Miller LHRP, Tyler Webb LHRP

Braves
Dallas Keuchel LHSP, Max Fried LHSP, Jerry Blevins LHRP, Sean Newcomb LHRP/LHSP, Grant Dayton LHRP

Phillies
Jose Alvarez LHRP, Austin Davis LHRP, Ranger Suarez LHRP, Adam Morgan LHRP

Nats
Patrick Corbin LHSP, Sean Doolittle LHRP, Matt Grace LHRP, Tony Sipp LHRP

Twins
Martin Perez LHSP, Taylor Rogers LHRP

NYY
J.A. Happ LHSP, James Paxton LHSP, CC Sabathia LHSP, Zack Britton LHRP, Aroldis Chapman LHRP, Nester Cortes Jr. LHRP, Stephen Tarpley LHRP

Houston
Wade Miley LHSP, Cionel Perez LHRP, Framber Valdez LHRP

One has to figure that MadBum will be joining a contending team.

It just does not seem that there are enough LHP for the Dodgers to overreact and bring in a mediocre RH bat to challenge the LHP. If a JDM type player does become available, I would think the Dodgers would check into that, but not because they feel overmatched by LH pitching.

Gavin Lux will be the starting SS in next Tuesday’s Texas League AS Game. Since the beginning of 2018, Lux has been on a different plane. Something clicked and he has become a bonafide top prospect, and a certain ML player. In reviewing the top SS prospects, Bo Bichette, Carter Kieboom, and Gavin Lux were all top draftees in the 2016 draft. Bichette is at AAA as is Kieboom who has made a brief appearance with the MLB Nationals. I think Gavin will get there this year, and maybe right after the Texas League AS game. I predicted that Nico Hulsizer would move to RC directly after the Midwest League AS Game, so I might as well predict that Gavin gets that promotion next week. Gavin has done nothing but prove that he can play at an elite level at the last two levels he has played.

Before Saturday’s game, in a list of league offensive leaders, Lux was #2 Slugging, #2 OPS, #2 Hits, #2 HR, #4 BA, #5 OBP, #6 Runs. Is that enough to get him promoted to OKC? Once he gets to OKC, will he begin a transition to 2B?

Thinking about Gavin and Jordan Sheffield, got me to reminiscing about the 2016 Dodgers draft.

Round 1 – Gavin Lux – AA (AS Starter)

Round 1a – Will D. Smith – MLB

Round 2 – Jordan Sheffield – AA

Round 2a – Mitchell White – AAA

Round 3 – Dustin May – AA

Round 4 – DJ Peters – AA

Round 5 – Devin Smeltzer – MLB Twins

Round 6 – Errol Robinson – AAA

Round 7 – Luke Raley – AAA Twins

Round 8 – Andre Scrubb – AA

Round 9 – Tony Gonsolin – AAA

Round 10 – Kevin Lachance – Released and signed by DBacks

Round 11 – AJ Alexy – AA Texas

Round 13 – Cody Thomas AA (AS Starter)

Round 14 – Dean Kremer – AA Baltimore

Round 15 – Brayan Morales – A+

Round 19 – Chris Mathewson – A+

Round 26 – Brandon Montgomery – A+

Round 30 – Ramon Rodriguez – Ogden

Round 31 – Stevie Berman – AA

Round 33 – Zach McKinstry – AA (AS bench)

Round 35 – Nick Yarnall – A+

Round 38 – Kevin Malisheski – Ogden

It is a pretty good supposition that all of the top 11 draft picks (through Round 9) will make a ML roster in some capacity. That is a phenomenal draft. Two Texas League All Star starters and one Texas League All Star reserve were from the Dodgers 2016 draft. Nine of the eleven are still with the Dodgers and all 9 are at AA or better. I do not believe I have seen a better draft except maybe for the 1968, but 2016 has not yet come to a conclusion.

Finally, I certainly understand why some can pick and choose what individual components of a game they want to dwell on. I have been a strong advocate for relief help, but I have no reservations at all about the starting pitching and timely offense. Seager and Pollock out? No problem. Beaty gets a walk off HR to win Game 1 of the series and knocks in two critical runs in two ABs the next night. Verdugo then gets his second walk off HR and a 4 hit night. Two rookies leading a clutch hitting attack?

Fans want to complain about a hanging curve by Caleb Ferguson? You have that right. Instead I am going to celebrate Beaty’s two clutch singles, and Verdugo’s walk off and 4 hits. I am also going to feel good about Garcia, Floro, Jansen, Baez, and Kelly pitching shutout innings without allowing a hit and only a single walk. This was a tremendous win on a night when Ryu was not at his best. Just as each of those relievers came back with solid games last night, I am just as positive that Ferguson will have his good days again. He will hang another curve and give up another HR. He should not be expected to be a consistent high leverage reliever right now. Maybe someday.

One bad pitch in 5.0 innings of relief. You cannot get much better than that, and not many have been as hard on the relievers as I have been. I am going to take this win and smile.

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT by AC

OKC Dodgers 0 – Memphis Redbirds 5 (Cardinals)

There was not much good in this game. The Dodgers delivered 2 singles (Shane Peterson and Jake Peter). Rob Zastryzny started and pitched 6.0 innings allowing 3 runs on 7 hits, 2 walks, with 6 Ks. He did allow a HR. Adam McCreery pitched 1.0 innings and gave up a solo H R. Jamie Schultz followed also surrendering a run on 2 hits and 2 Ks. Justin Grimm finished the final 1.1 wit 2 Ks.

Tulsa Drillers 2 – Amarillo Sod Poodles 1 (Padres)

Dustin May pitched his best game of the season going 7 scoreless innings yielding 2 hits and registering 14 strikeouts. Yordy Cabrera relieved May and pitched a perfect 8th but gave up 2 singles and a sac fly in the 9th to tie the game at 1-1.

The Drillers used 2 singles and a batter reaching base on a fielder’s choice to load the bases. A walk scored one run for a 1-0 lead. With the score tied 1-1 in the 10th, Zach McKinstry started at 2nd to begin the inning. Josh Thole grounded out to move McKinstry to 3rd. Gavin Lux was intentionally walked. Drew Avans singled to score McKinstry.

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 10 – Lancaster JetHawks 5 (Rockies)

The Quakes scored 10 runs on 12 hits, including 5 XBH. The Quakes opened the scoring in the 3rd. Deacon Liput singled and Jeter Downs drilled a double. WP scored one run and a Jeren Kendall sac fly scored run #2. The JetHawks tied the score with single runs in the 4th and 5th. The Quakes broke it open with 5 in the 6th. Donovan Casey walked and after a pop out, Marcus Chiu hit a 2 run HR. There was a flyout for out #2. Brayan Morales walked a stole 2nd. Deacon Liput walked and Morales and Liput pulled off a double steal. Jeter Downs singled home 2 and went to third on a throwing error. Devin Mann singled to bring Downs home for the 5th run in the inning. In the 7th, Donovan Casey opened the 7th with a HR (12). Jordan Procyshen hit another HR (2). Brayan Morales, and Deacon Liput singled. Downs walked to load the bases with Mann singling for the Quakes 10th run on the night.

Josiah Gray pitched a strong opening 5 innings allowing 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks. He did strike out 9 JetHawk batters in 5 innings. Wes Helsabeck pitched 1.2 innings surrendering a 3 run HR. Bryan Warzak pitched 1.1 innings striking out 3, and Logan Salow pitched the 9th allowing a single with 3 strikeouts.

Ogden Raptors 4 – Orem Owlz 7 (LAA)

Catcher Tre Todd was the hitting star with his first double and 1st HR (2 run HR) and 3 RBIs. Jimmy Titus hit his first professional HR and Joe Vranesh hit his first professional double. That was the extent of the Raptors offense.

The pitching overall was not as good as the offense. Alfredo Tavarez started and went 5.0 innings. He allowed 2 runs on 6 hits with 3 walks and 4 Ks. Yeison Cespedes pitched the 6th allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk. Corey Merrill pitched a scoreless 2 innings with 1 hit. Hunter Speer pitched the 9th giving up 2 runs on 3 hits.

Great Lakes Loons 2 – Fort Wayne TinCaps 1 – (Padres)

19-year-old LHSP Robinson Ortiz (LAD Prospect #24) pitched his 4th consecutive outstanding start. In yesterday’s game, Ortiz pitched 5.0 scoreless innings allowing 3 hits and 1 walk with 5 Ks. In his last 4 games, he has pitched 20 innings and has allowed 1 run on 9 hits, 6 BB, and 23 K.

Zach Willeman followed and pitched 3.0 innings allowing only a single in his 1st inning (6th). The Drillers put together a HBP, single, BB, and WP to score a run in the 8th and take a 1-0 lead. Willeman may have tired after three outstanding innings, because he allowed 2 singles, a walk, and a sac fly in the 9th to knot the score at 1-1. Brett de Geus relieved Willeman in the 10th. No runs were scored in the 10th and the TinCaps did not score in the 11th. With Chris Roller starting at 2nd to begin the inning, Jacob Amaya was intentionally walked. Dillon Paulson hit into a force placing runners on 1st and 3rd. Roller then scored on a WP to bring home a 2-1 victory.

Miguel Vargas went 2-4 for the offensive side of the ledger.

DSL Dodgers Bautista 2 – DSL Royals 3

19-year-old DH/1B, Kiumel Bastardo continued with his hot bat going 3-4. He is now 12-25 with 2 doubles, batting .480. His 3 walks takes his OBP over .500. He also had 5 SB. Harold Restituyo and Gregory Pereira both went 2-4 with Restituyo hitting his 1st double. Four pitchers allowed three runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks. The foursome had 8 Ks.

DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 4 – DSL Indians 7

The Shoemakers took a 4-2 lead into the 9th but gave up 5 runs (4 earned) to steal the win. 5 Shoemaker pitchers pitched a solid 7 innings allowing 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks. Luisenya Perez came on in the 8th and was hit very hard with 4 hits and 1 walk giving the Indians the 5 runs they needed.

Offensively, Marlon Cairo went 2-4 including a 2 out 2 run single. He also hit his first triple on the season.

AZL Dodgers Lasorda 3 – AZL Mariners 2

The Lasordas had a little walk-off magic of their own. Trailing 2-1 in their home half of the 9th, Aldo Espinoza banged his 2nd HR to tie the game at 2. Jorbit Vivas was HBP and Eddys Leonard singled. After Vivas was thrown out at home on a Rolando Lebron groundball to 1B, Wladimir Chalo was intentionally walked to load the bases. Next batter up was Edwin Mateo who unintentionally walked to bring home Leonard and the walk off win.

Israiky Berroa started for the Lasordas and went 5.0 innings allowing 1 run on 7 hits, 1 walk, with 4 Ks. Orlandy Navarro followed with 2 innings, allowing 1 run on 3 hits, 1 walk, and 3 Ks. Reinaldo De Paula pitched the final 2.0 perfect innings with 3 Ks.

Aldo Espinoza went 2-4 and Rolando Lebron finished the night going 3-4. Yunior Garcia hit HR #1.

AZL Dodgers Mota 6 – AZL Athletics Green 0

26th round draft pick, Mark Mixon, was apparently the first 2019 Dodger pitcher draftee to pitch for the organization. He started and pitched 1.0 inning, allowing 1 hit and 1 strikeout. Hyun-il Choi followed and pitched 4.2 shutout innings, allowing 4 hits and 1 walk, with 6 strikeouts for his first US win. Jeffrey Abreu and Carlos De Los Santos pitched the final 3.2 innings in the 4 pitcher shutout victory.

Several Dodger hitters had big nights, led by Luis Yanel Diaz who went 3-5 with two triples. Ismael Alcantara went 2-5 with his 1st triple. Andres Noriega went 2-3 and Kevin Aponte and Alfonso Guillen had 2-4 nights. Alex De Jesus hit his first triple and Kody Hoese hit his 5th double of the season.