Prospects: Let's Get One Thing Straight!

A few years ago, a player was called up by the Dodgers, and in his first call-up, he hit .143 with a .250 OB%. It was just eight plate appearances, so there was not much to go on. In his second season, he had 239 plate appearances and hit .215 with a .272 OB%. Well, like many of you would be quick to do, the Dodgers traded him, and that player, Paul Konerko, went on to hit 439 Career Home Runs with a .279 BA and a .841 OPS. Whoops! Even though they got Jeff Shaw back, I am sure the Dodgers would take a Mulligan on that one.

OK, I am just going to put this out there, and please do not take this the wrong way, but I have to say this:

I appreciate all of your takes, opinions, and prospects… but mostly when it is based upon study, research, and especially watching games in the minor leagues. To me, your opinions about prospects mean less than nothing if you are just looking at stats. No, let me rephrase that: “It is really silly to just look at stats!” There, I said it!

If you want to be an expert at evaluating minor league prospects, you have to hang around with scouts and scout types. You have to watch, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year. You have to see these players in person. You have to watch them on MiLB TV. You have to read other’s scouting reports and reconcile that with what you see. Then maybe, just maybe… you will be qualified to make judgments about minor league players, and maybe you might be right half the time! HALF! The leading GMs and scouts and baseball insiders get it right, maybe slightly more than half the time. I heard one executive say that if you get player development right 54% of the time, you are a genius.

So, when I read comments that the Dodgers should trade Miguel Vargas, Diego Cartaya, or Michael Busch, it just makes me think someone who says that is dumb enough to do self-brain surgery. Progress is not linear – sometimes, you have to let it play out. Now, that does not mean that I would not trade Cartaya, Vargas, or Busch – I would do it in a heartbeat if it made the team better. “But I think Vargas is not going to be that good.” Fine, that’s your opinion, but if you are just looking at stats and a few YouTube videos, you are a moron! It takes a whole lot more than that to evaluate prospect talent, and you are still going to be wrong a lot more than half the time… if you are really, really good at it!

Many of the scout types are older. Do you know why that is? It often takes time to develop an “eye” for talent over the years. If I have to describe how that happens, you are not capable of understanding it! However, talent evaluation is not an easy or simple thing. Stats are just a tiny part of it, so in the future, make sure your opinions are informed ones. It’s OK to say, “Well, I saw him yada, yada, yada,” and that is fine, but you have to understand that it was ONE TIME!

I am not trying to stifle opinions, but I and many others I know spend a lot of time watching and discussing prospects. I subscribe to Baseball America and have every Prospect Handbook ever published. I read (and value) Keith Law, Jim Calais, and several others at Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Still, there is a lot more to know. I will continue to make predictions, and when someone less educated on minor league prospects occasionally make one or two predictions and then make fun of ones where I was wrong, I just consider the source.

Nobody gets it right, much more than 50%. One outta two ain’t bad! Maybe if you are a .300 hitter in talent evaluation, you are good. I am releasing my 2024 Top 30 Dodger Prospects. Here they are – If Miguel Vargas were a rookie, I would rank him #1, but he’s not!

1. Michael Busch – 2024 – He needs a runway and a chance. I am not afraid of him in LF, 3B or 2B, but he will need some reps in any place.
2. Emmet Sheehan – 2024 – He is on a fast track to becoming an elite pitcher. I did not expect to see him this soon, so he is a quick study.
3. Diego Cartaya -2025 – I look at last season as an anomaly. Stuff happens… usually mental or personal stuff. If it continues, then I start to worry. His skills are off the chart. I hear from some that his swing is too long, and I don’t even know what that means! They are just words.
4. Dalton Rushing – 2025 – He is a stone-cold hitter who may or may not change positions. Last season was challenging for him. Let’s see how he rebounds.
5. Kyle Hurt – 2024 – He just needs to go to the bullpen, where he will be a multi-inning lockdown reliever.
6. Landon Knack – 2024 – He is ready for the show, both physically and mentally. He has changed his work ethic, diet, and training. He’s a #3 or #4 in waiting.
7. Gavin Stone – 2024 – He still needs to add another pitch, but control is the key. He finally started putting it together late last season.
8. Andy Pages – 2024 – Last year was lost to injury. He had lost weight and was thinner and seemed poised to be a big-time outfield prospect. Can he take up where he left off? We shall see…. He does have “Light Tower Power!”
9. Nick Frasso – 2024 – Filthy, nasty stuff. Control is getting better. He had a “Not Tommy John Surgery,” and the question is whether his arm holds up as a starter. He generally is not allowed to pitch more than 3 or 4 innings. That will likely change this year.
10. Yenier Fernandez – 2024 – He has a unique skill set in that he can catch, and play 2B and SS. This is a guy who could be a nice utility man or more.
11. Jonny DeLuca – 2024 – We saw him last year. He’s solid in the outfield and is a lefty killer. Works best in a platoon.
12. Ronan Kopp – 2024 – If he harnesses his control, Kopp and Hurt will form a deadly multi-inning L-R duo unseen for a long time.
13. Hunter Feduccia -2024 – I think he’s ready to be a backup and the fact that he hits LH is a plus. He is not the equal of Barnes behind the plate and how his bat plays is the question.
14. Justin Wrobleski – 2025 – One of the few LH Starting pitchers in the Dodgers system. He had TJ a couple of years back and flashes a 95 MPH Fastball and a very good curve. One more pitch (probably his slider), and he will be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. He is also in the process of mastering the cutter. I am high on him.
15. River Ryan – 2025 – River is a great athlete who played SS and 2B as well as was a reliever in college. He is new to starting, but his fastball touches 99, and his slider hits 91, while his changeup and curve are improving. He really needs a full season at AAA, but he is another middle-of-the-rotation guy who has some really nasty stuff.
16. Austin Gauthier – 2025 – This is a guy who likes to hit the ball hard and touch at least 1B. He is aggressive and physical. He can play DSS in a pinch, but 2B is his best spot. At worst, he is a utility man, and at best, he could be an occasional All-Star at 2B.
17. Jorbit Vivas – 2025 – Somewhat a LH version of Gauthier, Vivas has the ability to use the entire field. He is a below-average runner, has below-average power, and is somewhat limited defensively. I do not see many players as trade bait, but he is one.
18. Jake Pilarski – 2025 – I had him in the 20s until the AFL, where he is showing out as a closer. In 13 IP, he has a 0.71 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and averages 14.2 SO/9. He does walk 4 per 9, so he has to get better there. He has all that closer stuff!
19. Jake Gelof -2026 – This is a guy who maybe should be in the Top 10 or 5, but I have not seen him enough to put him there. What I have seen reminds me of Austin Riley.
20. Thayron Liranzo – 2026 – A switch-hitting catcher from the DR, he is still only 20 years old. He has plus, plus power but also has plenty of swing-and-miss. He’s very raw and has a very high offensive ceiling. His catching is slightly advanced but he has similar skills to Diego Cartaya.
21. Josue De Paula – 2026 – Still a teenager, Jo is 6′ 3″ LH hitter with a sweet swing. He is skinny and will become much stronger as he matures. His ceiling is that of a Superstar, but he is horrid defensively. DH is his best position. I have only seen him on video, so there is a lot to learn.
22. Kendall George – 2026 – George is very different from any Dodgers player in the fact that his speed is his biggest asset, and his speed will kill anyone. I am looking forward to seeing him in person, but he could be an asset in CF by 2026.
23. Joendry Vargas – 2026 – Vargas is a RH 6′ 4″ SS, and we all know that shortstops that tall can’t succeed… right? He has a shot at being a high-average hitter with 25 HR power.
24. Maddux Bruns – 2026 – Just 21, Maddux (named for Greg), has a high 90s fastball, a hammer curve, a high-quality slider, and a change-up. IF (BIG IF) he can harness his control, he could be a solid #2 lefty. If he can’t, he might not make it. It’s Boom or Bust!
25. Damon Keith – 2026 – Damon has great power, strikes out a lot, and is a solid outfielder at each position. He is athletic and strikes out a lot. 2024 is an important year.
26. Jose Ramos – 2026 – A very athletic outfielder, Ramos has PLUS raw power and poor plate discipline. He gives away too many at-bats. He’s dead red on fastballs but can’t hit breaking balls. He also has a cannon for an arm. You have to be patient with this guy.
27. Jarod Karros – 2027 – At 6′ 7″ his fastball is barely over 90 MPH and he has some nice secondary pitches. Control will dictate how he does.
28. Peyton Martin – 2027 – Martin is a nice RHP with a 98+ MPH fastball and an 82 MPH Change. His curveball is improving by the minute. He maintains his cool on the mound with a “presence” that is rarely seen. He is a guy to watch.
29. Rayne Doncon – 2027 – Currently playing SS and 2B, Rayne has great bat speed and has a knack for barrelling up pitches. He could play 2B or 3B… most likely. He just turned 21 so he has a ways to go.
30. Chris Newell – 2027 – A 22-year-old LH hitter, Newell has a lot of raw power and had a strong arm before his TJ surgery a couple of years ago. It is looking stronger, and he has above-average speed. He plays all three OF spots, but the corners are where he will likely end up. He could be a very solid hitter if he keeps this up.

Feel free to disagree. I will add some commentary in the next few weeks on the ones I did not cover. If there is a player you would like to know more about, just let me know. I don’t know it all, but I do get a lot of prospects right. When Andrew Toles was in Rancho Cucamonga, I predicted he would be in the Majors that same season. It happened… but of course, I loved Andy LaRoche, so there is that!

World Series

In case you have forgotten, there are twelve (count ’em – 12) teams that made the playoffs. This World Series pits the second worst of the twelve versus the worst of the twelve. Just so we are clear, the D-Backs are the team with the worst regular season record to make the World Series… ever! I have been watching (out of the corner of my eye), but I am having a hard time taking this seriously… and so are so many other fans. That’s all I will say… for now.