Pitching Possibilities

With the playoffs a full month and a half away (48 games), it’s a bit of a reach to try to predict what a potential playoff bullpen will look like.  We’ll know a lot more once we’re closer to the finish line, but from the looks of things, September will be a tryout for October.  Even more so with pitchers than position players.  To make matters worse, or better, depending on how you look at it, there are currently 11 pitchers on the IL., eight on the 60-day, and three on the 15-day.  And just to add another wrinkle into the equation, the Dodgers don’t seem to be very forthcoming as it relates to injuries or as to the status of rehabs for injured players.  So, all we can do is make a few assumptions and go from there while remembering that September will be a tryout.

One more caveat.  Just because a player isn’t on the post-season roster for the first series doesn’t mean they won’t be on the roster for another series.  With so many deserving players on this team, I wouldn’t put it past “The Gang” that makes those decisions to mix and match players specifically to their opponent.

The IL Crew

Let’s start with the walking wounded and try to see which ones will really come back this year.  The obvious ones are the three pitchers that are on the 15-Day IL; Kershaw, Almonte, and Graterol.  Add in the two that are on rehab assignments, Treinen and May, and we have five pitchers returning, and 2 of them need 40-man roster spots.  I had Walker Buehler in this mix as well until it was announced that he’d have another elbow surgery and will be out for the remainder of the season.

I’m going to assume the remaining five pitchers that are on the 60-Day won’t be back this season simply because there isn’t enough room for them.  That list includes; Danny Duffy, Victor Gonzales, Tommy Kahnle, and Jimmy Nelson.  That’s a lot of big names that won’t be coming back unless there’s an injury, of course.  

What We Have Today

Right now, the active roster has a total of 13 pitchers, which will probably expand to 15 in just 15 days or so with the September roster expansion.  This is also when the 13 pitcher rule disappears and allows clubs to carry 15 pitchers on the roster if they so choose.  It looks to me that the Dodgers are pretty much set on the position player side of the house, so my next assumption is that they’ll use those two extra roster spots to carry 15 pitchers to help ease the burden on the guys that have done the heaviest lifting this season.  Namely, Anderson, Gonsolin, and Urias.  I can see a six-man rotation for September and a 9 man bullpen serving as a tryout for the first post-season series.

The rotation currently consists of Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Heaney, and Pepiot.

The bullpen is Kimbrel, Phillips, Bickford, Moronta, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Price from the left side.

Now, It gets Fun!

In the next couple of weeks, we’ll add Graterol and May back into the mix and possibly Almonte.  All before rosters expand.  This is easy enough to do.  We’ll need to DFA one player and send two others to the minors on optional assignments.  My guess is that Pepiot goes back down when May comes up, and Bickford and Moronta get optioned when Almonte and Graterol return.  That just leaves the one DFA to account for.  My guess is that Eddie Alvarez gets whacked at this time.

The updated rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Heaney, and May.

The updated bullpen; Kimbrel, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Price from the left side.

Wow, this already looks so much better and almost unhittable.  Sure it’s odd to have your worst pitcher as your closer, but it sure looks like the Dodgers believe it’s better to have your best pitchers pitch in the highest leverage situations instead of saving them for the last inning.  That’s a theme that the Dodgers are prone to innovate with and will continue using their best relievers in this fashion.  Don’t get hung up on the closer role; it’s becoming more fluid. Kimbrel at least has plenty of experience pitching the ninth.

With this configuration, Martin and Price will be low leverage guys, and Graterol will be a guy they bring on to get out of an inning with runners on and perhaps take down the next inning depending on the game situation when he enters.  Price will have a similar role when it makes sense to use a lefty in a lower leverage situation or when Graterol needs a breather.  Almonte and Phillips from the right side and Ferguson and Vesia from the left side when the platoon situation dictates which hand a pitcher to pitch with to exploit a perceived platoon advantage.  This already looks like an ideal bullpen.

September Staff

I believe the Dodgers will wait until September to active the next two pitchers; Clayton Kershaw and Blake Treinen.  One DFA will need to happen in addition to a spot on the 28-man September roster.  The DFA’s are anyone’s guess, but one thing to consider is that anyone that gets DFA’s now can’t play in the postseason for the acquiring team.  Chris Martin, Reyes Moronta, and Phil Bickford all have at least one more option year remaining and at least one more year of control, as far as I can tell, so they won’t be locks to be DFA’d.   I have no idea where the DFA goes from here. One of Moronta, Reed, Bickford, and Bruihl seems likely.  I’ll say that my guess is Bruihl.

Now, the staff looks like this…

The September rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Kershaw, May, and Heaney. 

The September bullpen; Kimbrel, Treinen, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, Price, and Heaney from the left side. 

The Post-Season Pitching Staff

We’ve finally made it to the postseason.  Now we are going to have to trim that 6-man September rotation down to 4 and the bullpen to 9 in order to get back the 13 pitchers for post-season play.  This going to have a lot to do with September performances, so this is little more than a shot in the dark after a lot of analysis and assumptions are made.  But, here goes.

In my mind, I want two lefties and two righties in the rotation.  The Dodgers have the luxury to balance it out this way, and I think it would be beneficial, so your opponent has to adjust each night.  I’m going to make another assumption here and say Post-Season experience and velocity play up in the postseason regardless of how good they performed during the season.  In an ideal world, which we all know we don’t live in, our rotation will line up like this…

The Post Season Rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, May, Kershaw.

I fully expect all of you to freak out right about now.  I’m leaving Anderson off the rotation.  My reasoning is that as good as Anderson has been, he’s slightly worse than Gonsolin, Urias, and Kershaw. May is going to be in there as the only starter that sits near triple digits.  Kershaw will be there because he’s Kershaw. Urias has a lot of post-season experience, and in the end, it’s probably more beneficial to have another righty to even things out rather than have three lefties in the rotation.  No, there’s no reason to go with a 5 man rotation in the postseason. 

The Post-Season bullpen; Kimbrel, Treinen, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Heaney from the left side. 

I suppose there’s a chance that Anderson ends up in the bullpen over Martin, but he seems redundant with Heaney as lefty long men.

Before Buehler went down yesterday, I had Buehler in the pen in front of Anderson and Martin. That was a much easier decision. Now that Buehler is out for the year, Anderson has a reasonably good chance at beating out Martin. But, at the same time, Chris Martin is no slouch and has pitched big post-season innings as recently as last season with the Braves.