With the playoffs a full month and a half away (48 games), it’s a bit of a reach to try to predict what a potential playoff bullpen will look like. We’ll know a lot more once we’re closer to the finish line, but from the looks of things, September will be a tryout for October. Even more so with pitchers than position players. To make matters worse, or better, depending on how you look at it, there are currently 11 pitchers on the IL., eight on the 60-day, and three on the 15-day. And just to add another wrinkle into the equation, the Dodgers don’t seem to be very forthcoming as it relates to injuries or as to the status of rehabs for injured players. So, all we can do is make a few assumptions and go from there while remembering that September will be a tryout.
One more caveat. Just because a player isn’t on the post-season roster for the first series doesn’t mean they won’t be on the roster for another series. With so many deserving players on this team, I wouldn’t put it past “The Gang” that makes those decisions to mix and match players specifically to their opponent.
The IL Crew
Let’s start with the walking wounded and try to see which ones will really come back this year. The obvious ones are the three pitchers that are on the 15-Day IL; Kershaw, Almonte, and Graterol. Add in the two that are on rehab assignments, Treinen and May, and we have five pitchers returning, and 2 of them need 40-man roster spots. I had Walker Buehler in this mix as well until it was announced that he’d have another elbow surgery and will be out for the remainder of the season.
I’m going to assume the remaining five pitchers that are on the 60-Day won’t be back this season simply because there isn’t enough room for them. That list includes; Danny Duffy, Victor Gonzales, Tommy Kahnle, and Jimmy Nelson. That’s a lot of big names that won’t be coming back unless there’s an injury, of course.
What We Have Today
Right now, the active roster has a total of 13 pitchers, which will probably expand to 15 in just 15 days or so with the September roster expansion. This is also when the 13 pitcher rule disappears and allows clubs to carry 15 pitchers on the roster if they so choose. It looks to me that the Dodgers are pretty much set on the position player side of the house, so my next assumption is that they’ll use those two extra roster spots to carry 15 pitchers to help ease the burden on the guys that have done the heaviest lifting this season. Namely, Anderson, Gonsolin, and Urias. I can see a six-man rotation for September and a 9 man bullpen serving as a tryout for the first post-season series.
The rotation currently consists of Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Heaney, and Pepiot.
The bullpen is Kimbrel, Phillips, Bickford, Moronta, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Price from the left side.
Now, It gets Fun!
In the next couple of weeks, we’ll add Graterol and May back into the mix and possibly Almonte. All before rosters expand. This is easy enough to do. We’ll need to DFA one player and send two others to the minors on optional assignments. My guess is that Pepiot goes back down when May comes up, and Bickford and Moronta get optioned when Almonte and Graterol return. That just leaves the one DFA to account for. My guess is that Eddie Alvarez gets whacked at this time.
The updated rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Heaney, and May.
The updated bullpen; Kimbrel, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Price from the left side.
Wow, this already looks so much better and almost unhittable. Sure it’s odd to have your worst pitcher as your closer, but it sure looks like the Dodgers believe it’s better to have your best pitchers pitch in the highest leverage situations instead of saving them for the last inning. That’s a theme that the Dodgers are prone to innovate with and will continue using their best relievers in this fashion. Don’t get hung up on the closer role; it’s becoming more fluid. Kimbrel at least has plenty of experience pitching the ninth.
With this configuration, Martin and Price will be low leverage guys, and Graterol will be a guy they bring on to get out of an inning with runners on and perhaps take down the next inning depending on the game situation when he enters. Price will have a similar role when it makes sense to use a lefty in a lower leverage situation or when Graterol needs a breather. Almonte and Phillips from the right side and Ferguson and Vesia from the left side when the platoon situation dictates which hand a pitcher to pitch with to exploit a perceived platoon advantage. This already looks like an ideal bullpen.
September Staff
I believe the Dodgers will wait until September to active the next two pitchers; Clayton Kershaw and Blake Treinen. One DFA will need to happen in addition to a spot on the 28-man September roster. The DFA’s are anyone’s guess, but one thing to consider is that anyone that gets DFA’s now can’t play in the postseason for the acquiring team. Chris Martin, Reyes Moronta, and Phil Bickford all have at least one more option year remaining and at least one more year of control, as far as I can tell, so they won’t be locks to be DFA’d. I have no idea where the DFA goes from here. One of Moronta, Reed, Bickford, and Bruihl seems likely. I’ll say that my guess is Bruihl.
Now, the staff looks like this…
The September rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Kershaw, May, and Heaney.
The September bullpen; Kimbrel, Treinen, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, Price, and Heaney from the left side.
The Post-Season Pitching Staff
We’ve finally made it to the postseason. Now we are going to have to trim that 6-man September rotation down to 4 and the bullpen to 9 in order to get back the 13 pitchers for post-season play. This going to have a lot to do with September performances, so this is little more than a shot in the dark after a lot of analysis and assumptions are made. But, here goes.
In my mind, I want two lefties and two righties in the rotation. The Dodgers have the luxury to balance it out this way, and I think it would be beneficial, so your opponent has to adjust each night. I’m going to make another assumption here and say Post-Season experience and velocity play up in the postseason regardless of how good they performed during the season. In an ideal world, which we all know we don’t live in, our rotation will line up like this…
The Post Season Rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, May, Kershaw.
I fully expect all of you to freak out right about now. I’m leaving Anderson off the rotation. My reasoning is that as good as Anderson has been, he’s slightly worse than Gonsolin, Urias, and Kershaw. May is going to be in there as the only starter that sits near triple digits. Kershaw will be there because he’s Kershaw. Urias has a lot of post-season experience, and in the end, it’s probably more beneficial to have another righty to even things out rather than have three lefties in the rotation. No, there’s no reason to go with a 5 man rotation in the postseason.
The Post-Season bullpen; Kimbrel, Treinen, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Heaney from the left side.
I suppose there’s a chance that Anderson ends up in the bullpen over Martin, but he seems redundant with Heaney as lefty long men.
Before Buehler went down yesterday, I had Buehler in the pen in front of Anderson and Martin. That was a much easier decision. Now that Buehler is out for the year, Anderson has a reasonably good chance at beating out Martin. But, at the same time, Chris Martin is no slouch and has pitched big post-season innings as recently as last season with the Braves.
Discussion (37)
Disagree, not disagreeable
In his four save attempts this season with a one-run lead, Kimbrel has failed to convert the save in each of them.
I love to read these post game comments after a loss. Let us look at the facts. Item 1. Kimbrel was the loser, we all agree on that. But, Renfroe, who is the kind of hitter who could end that game with one swing surprised everybody, including the announcers and most of the Milwaukee faithful by laying down his first ever bunt single. It was a thing of beauty. Surprised the Dodgers never try that. They might have 6 extra inning wins instead of 7 losses. Item 2. Kimbrel struck out the next hitter. That set up the possibility of a double play. Then Kimbrel made the mistake of walking the next hitter loading the bases. But it wasn’t like he was wild. His pitches were close. He still had a shot to get out of the inning. But Caratini hits a blooper that is in exactly the best spot it can be to win the game. And credit again goes to Renfroe who was running as soon as the ball left the bat and was right on the lead runners heels. Had Betts gotten to that ball before it dropped and made the catch, it would have been an easy double play. So a bunt a walk and a bloop beat him. It’s not like they crushed everything he threw up there. And you can bet a bag of tacos that no one feels worse about it than Kimbrel. Roberts said after the game that he was pleased with Kimbrel’s stuff. I do not see a change coming all that quickly. Kimbrel himself said he was frustrated and he knows it has to turn around and fast. He has vowed it will. So, we will see. The offense was not that great either. Lux 4 K’s Muncy 3. Don’t forget, they had runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out in the first inning and they did not score. They left 18 men on base.
I’m not surprised how the game ended with Kimbrel pitching but if there is a good thing that happened it was that the brewers picked up a game on San Diego for a spot in the playoffs.
Sigh, well, he was trying.
What a waste of all our great bullpen work up to that point. Can’t say that I didn’t expect it though
Kimbrel simply has NO command of his fastball!
Taylor accepts our apology! How valuable is CT3?!!!!!
Rylan Bannon claimed off waivers by the Braves. Former Dodger Jordan Sheffield outrighted to the minors by the Rockies.
Gallo is making his case! Still don’t know why Thompson’s bat isn’t in the lineup. And he might have made that catch as well
Bellinger would have caught that HR!
With a 17 game lead in the division and a five game lead for the best record, I still say they stick with Kimbrel for a few more weeks to see if he can straighten things out. He has run into so lousy luck in a few outings. A lot of good points have been made about his track record since 2018. He definitely has regressed substantially in the last five years. In the end the Dodgers are in a good spot to run him out there and see if things improve. If they don’t, they cut bait and move on.
Regarding Jansen. I‘ve had no confidence in him for a number of years now. His inability to pitch without distraction with runners on base was his undoing. He is Atlanta’s problem now, but we saw how rattled he became when we beat him a few months ago.
I believe that Phillips or Ferguson could adequately fill the closer role. In the post season with the mounted pressure, you never know how they will handle it. There will come a time or two (or more) when they will be tested. The closer role is really the only genuine weak spot I see with the ball club.
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
Cody Bellinger’s not in there today, and won’t be in there tomorrow, Dave Roberts said. Getting a “reset” after a meeting in the manager’s office postgame last night.
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
Danny Duffy felt some discomfort when facing hitters in a recent live session, Dave Roberts said. “Pretty unlikely” he makes it back as an option this season.
I’m thinking the bullpen works best when you give the ball to the pitcher at the beginning of an inning and let them pitch one inning.
Martin has proved he can put 0 on the scoreboard. Anderson has earned a spot on the roster.I say let’s see how Price responds to the closer roll. Heaney, as well as he has pitched, is not durable and has not earned that spot.
Trace Thompson has to be on the roster. If Gallo can start delivering the goods then you have to consider him.
It’s a great position to be in to have going into the playoffs!
THIS JUST IN:
Padres have cancelled the Fernando Tatis Jr bobblehead night sceduled for Sept 7th.
Someone please tell Jorge. I’m sure he was planning to attend.
I’ve suggested that they hand out free ringworm medication instead but have not heard back from Preller.
8:10 PM ET
Dodgers (80-34)
Brewers (61-53)
SP Ryan Pepiot R
1-0 3.92 ERA 20.2IP 23K 15BB
SP Brandon Woodruff R
9-3 3.52 ERA 92IP 109K 27BB
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
SS Trea Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Turner R
2B Gavin Lux L
LF Joey Gallo L
CF Chris Taylor R
In Domed Stadium
Nick Frasso starts tonight for A+ Great Lakes
I am not surprised that Beli is not in the lineup tonight. After each at bat last night, he walked slowly back to the dugout and then was a bit slow getting to the field. His non-verbals to me said that he was not in a good place mentally. My observation is that Doc is giving him some time to “get his head in the right place”.
Someone asked earlier why you would not use five starters in the playoffs?
I would counter with WHY IN THE HELL would you want to start your worst starter in the playoffs instead of starting your best starter twice? Between the first and 5th games, there are generally two rest days. If you are dumb enough to use your 5th starter in game #5, your opponent is not that dumb. Your Number 5 would be facing their Number 1?
Any more questions?
For the record, we probably don’t miss Pollock, but I did not want Kimbrel, and all I am going to say is, “I told you so.”
WTF is Doc saying here? Can someone please translate? Who is he talking about?
“I talked to Dustin today, and he’s not a savior. I just want him to come out and pitch well. He’s just got to do his job. When Clayton gets back, he’s got to do his job. So I don’t look at it as pressure. It’s just more of, we don’t have a guy that we’d hoped to be with us. He’s been a big part of things we’ve done, but there’s nothing we can do about it and guys have just got to do their jobs.”
Mets Carrasco is set to have an MRI after experiencing side pain. Mets hopes are pinned on the health of two or more very fragile pitchers.
ESPN Kiley McDaniel has his new top 50 prospects out.
Cartaya, Vargas, Miller and Pages all made it. Cartaya was the hightes at Nr. 17. Vargas at 42,
Miller Nr. 44 and Pages Nr. 50.
He thinks there is a chance Miller will come out of the bullpen for the stretch run and postseason.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!
Why are only 4 starters needed? I understand that a series is short, but why not use the usual 5? More rest and everyone plays
* Kind of a weird game. Urias was effective (giving up only 4 hits and 2 walks) but inefficient. Same with Martin. Between he and Urias it took 117 pitches to get through 6 innings. The back end was great. On the night there seemed to be an unusual amount of foul balls and long AB’s. The Dodgers had 151 pitches and the Brewers 176. That’s 327 pitches for a 9 inning game yet only 5 walks and 10 hits.
Weird.
JT showed some nice glove work at 3rd and showed off some great feet and picks at 1st….by Freddie Freeman on the other end. He should never have to pay for a cocktail.
* The Brewers equivalent of our Kristen Watson is a woman named Sophia Minnaert. She’s great. Take a listen if you can get their broadcast. She does insightful narratives on real baseball stuff and knows what she’s talking about.
* Any combo in Doc’s line ups that have Muncy, Belling and Gallo and/or CT3 together, makes me nervous. Muncy is striking out at a 31% rate, Belli 30%, CT3 40% and Gallo at 46%. That’s too much No Contact for me.
* Urias was again frustrated with the home plate umpire. That’s happening way too much with him. Fact is Chad Fairchild was very consistent. All night he missed 6 strikes called balls and 6 balls called strikes. All were borderline. And he will not give the low pitch barely out of the zone. Urias needs to stop umpiring and pitch better.
* A chance to see Pepiot again tonight. Looking forward to it.
This is a good systematic breakdown on the roster possibilities, and with the need for only a four man rotation, I see your point that Heaney and Anderson are basically the same guy, but Anderson gives a different look. You mentioned May being a starter simply because his heater sticks out among the other starters. I think Anderson’s off speed and his ability to command it so well contrasts also with the hard throwers on the team. I think it was Mark who mentioned a tandem of May and Anderson – maybe each going three or four innings. Anderson’s a good hedge for May wilting under playoff pressure, too.
That means someone else gets left off. That’s either Martin or Kimbrel. Kimbrel won’t be left off. I partially agree that a part of his troubles have been back luck and squibbers, but there’s also the expression, “you make your own luck.” Chris Martin doesn’t walk people. Kimbrel walks people and wild pitches them over. I’d rather not see him on the playoff roster.
Heaney and Anderson could be used at any juncture of the game and pitch multi-innings.
So can Phillips.
Unless they are injured, these Pitchers are Locks for the playoffs:
May
Urias
Gonsolin
Kershaw
Heaney
Anderson
Almonte
Phillips
Ferguson
Treinen
Graterol
Price
Vesia
That’s 13!
Martin, Duffy, and Pepiot are in the mix, but barring injury, they won’t make it.
At this point, only the Dodgers have any idea what the plan is going forward. Since it looks like they will be getting a bye in the first round, they are in a position to set up their staff anyway they feel is best for a post season run. They will use a four-man rotation in the playoffs. Gonsolin, Urias and May are almost locks for that, some are assuming that Kersh will be healthy and back ready to pitch. But the back is a funny thing. He might feel great one day and be on the rack the next. Hopefully they do not have to use the opener they were forced to use because of tired arms last year. For that reason alone, Anderson is going to be on the post season roster no matter what. It is fun to guess at who is going to be where come playoff time. My guess is by the time the season ends, and we have seen how guys finish, and not how they are now, we will have a much better idea of the plan moving forward. If Kimbrel does not find it over these last games, he probably won’t be on the playoff roster. In that case, if he is healthy, I would think Treinen, and Phillips could easily handle the role. A lot depends on how well Treinen is when he returns. I never expect a player to be nails immediately when they come off of the IL.
BP –
Thanks for the excellent article. The one question I have is: why would you keep Heaney as a lefty in the post season bullpen over Anderson?
Are you sure about that 15 pitcher number limit for September? I thought I read somewhere that they were limiting it to 14.
Your reasoning about Anderson not making the post season roster makes some sense but if he continues like he has so far he’s going to be on the roster. Do a May/ Anderson tandem and save the rest of the bullpen for the other games.
Tatis Sr on the campaign trail. Baseball could’ve ‘handled this better.’??
So he’s claiming that steroid has no crank? Is he trippin’? What am I missing here?
Things change pretty quick. I had to spend time editing this post once it was announced that Walker would be gone for the year. Dirty trick by the Dodgers letting us think that Walker had a chance to come back. It must be really frustrating to get cut on, do rehab, only to find that you have to do it all over again.
Even with the bad news announced right before the game, a not very sharp Julio and the gang shut out a Brewers team that’s vying for a Wild Card spot. Chris Martin, who might not make the postseason bullpen according to some, struck out 4 guys in one inning. Then David Price, who everyone wanted to cut a couple of weeks ago, closes out the ninth on 9 pitches against their 4-5-6 hitters. In case nobody noticed, that’s 10 straight games that Price failed to give up a run.
I know it seems ridiculous that Anderson might not make the post-season staff, but every option is very good. He’s not going to make the rotation. Heaney isn’t either. How many lefties will they go with in the pen? You all realize that David Price’s era is lower than Anderson’s and his K rate is better, right? Sure, Chris Martin is easy to look at and say Anderson is better, but Chris Martin has post-season experience coming off last year’s World Series with the Braves. There are going to be tough decisions coming.
I think it’s great that Miller and Stone got promoted. Might as well get that depth in more meaningful innings. They’re both top 100 prospects and now it’s time to deliver and get ready for some MLB action. Both would already be in the majors for other teams. However, I don’t think there’s much of a chance for either of them to get the call this season without additional injuries. As it is, Pepiot is on the roster and might get squeezed off once May and Kershaw come back. But, you never know.
It’s gonna be weird for Pepiot to make a start without having to take a plane flight from OCK tonight. Hopefully, he’ll have better control after being more comfortable by staying with the team for over a week for once.
Gavin Lux is an absolute stud. His power is starting to show up and he’s just about ready to turn into Corey Seager with wheels. As much as I love Trea Turner, I wouldn’t be disappointed to see Busch and Lux up the middle for our team.
Taking a look at the Postseason Schedule there is no travel day between game 5 and game 6 of the NLCS. So should it be a series of Mets Vs Dodgers I think that benefits LA as we all know Max cant go on 3 days rest…..and the entire schedule will be condensed more reminiscent of 2020….
We bagged on Kenley to no end. Kimbrel? Cricketts.
Nice career CK.
Committe bullpen FTW.
Tough news on WB. I am still wondering why they did not examine or find the problem when he has his elbow surgery a few weeks back. I am not an expert but I would think you know whats wrong when you opened up the elbow back then.
Sounds a little strange.
I was hoping to have him back for postseason play, at least as a stopper in the pen .
Well, next man up.
If Kimbrel does not get his act together in the next few weeks I do not see him on our postseason roster. You just can not trust the guy to get key outs.
What about Gavin Lux ? Going deep oppo vs a side arming LHP. Wow. Just leave him in the lineup vs LHP. He is doing just fine.
Would love to see Bobby Miller starting a couple of games in September , even if it is only to rest some other arms down the stretch.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Great analysis. It makes for interesting discussion. I guess you can update once a week as players come and go. And I think we all agree that Kimbrel should be left off the postseason.
Excellent analysis but I just cannot foresee a post season roster without Anderson on it. His change-up can prove big in a close game with men on base and the Dodgers in need of a double play. I also think he can be used to piggy-back a Gonsolin or Kershaw start. I agree with Mark and can see a roster that does not include Kimbrel.
Chris Martin throws strikes and can be used in get a needed strike out in a high-leverage situation. If Treinen and Graterol are healthy and pitch like they did before injuries, Kimbrel will not sniff the post season roster.
A lot of what the roster looks like by playoff time depends upon pitcher health. Hopefully, no one else goes down, but it can happen. That’s why depth is so important.
I hope I am wrong, but I think Craig Kimbrel has hit the end of the line. In 2018, in the ALDS, where pitched four innings. Kimbrel had a 11.57 ERA. The Red Sox gave him 2.1 innings.
In the ALCS, he pitched 4 innings with a 4.50 ERA, and in the World Series he also pitched 4 innings with a 4.15 ERA.
Last year in the ALDS he had a 9.00 ERA.
Over 8 seasons and 10 playoff series Kimbrel has a 4.13 ERA.
His ERA last season with the White Sox, the second half of the season, was 5.09. This year it is 4.39.
There is a distinct pattern here, and it ain’t good. Unless Kimbrel totally turns it around, Friedman will DFA him right after the first of September, if not before.
I have seen this movie too many times. Kimbrel is not a part of the Dodgers bullpen anymore. I would DFA him now – I don’t care if someone else picks him up. Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone moved to OKC yesterday. Give them a couple of starts and if they hold their own, try them in LA. That’s what I would do. Both throw near 100 MPH and have devastatingly filthy stuff. That plays up anywhere!