Patience or Attack
We are only four games into the season, and the sniping at Doc is already in full gear. Not just from LADT commenters, but throughout the Dodgers blogosphere. Every manager makes horrible decisions throughout the season, and sometimes they actually make some good calls. Of course, nobody likes to comment on those. Now maybe some of these decisions are not Doc’s alone. It seems to be a team philosophy to
We are only four games into the season, and the sniping at Doc is already in full gear. Not just from LADT commenters, but throughout the Dodgers blogosphere. Every manager makes horrible decisions throughout the season, and sometimes they actually make some good calls. Of course, nobody likes to comment on those.
Now maybe some of these decisions are not Doc’s alone. It seems to be a team philosophy to drive the pitch count up rather than attacking the first strike. Often times the first pitch is the best pitch a batter is going to see, especially if it is a strike. Mookie is getting a lot of 1st pitch strikes thrown. Mookie has also not been a very prolific hitter swinging and hitting the first pitch. He appears to be a prototypical leadoff guy waiting out the pitcher. He swings at the first pitch less than 8% of the time. Also interesting to note is that Mookie has hit more HR’s in those 8% than on any other count. Just like any mortal hitter, Mookie is very pedestrian once the count gets to 0-2 or 1-2 or even 2-2. But he is so prolific after getting ahead or even 0-1, that he more than makes up for it. Mookie taking first pitch is more about Mookie than it is organizational. Mookie has not seen NL pitchers very much, so it is going to be a learning curve for him. We just need to be patient, and let Mookie get comfortable. He will hit. He always has.
Max Muncy seems to have somewhat the same pattern. He hits the first pitch a little more than 8%. But once Max gets 2 strikes, he becomes a very bad hitter. Just like Mookie, Max is a very good hitter with 0 or 1 strikes. As was brought up yesterday, Max is a very streaky hitter, but has been very productive for the past two years, so again patience seems to be the best medicine here.
Contrarily, Corey Seager is hitting the first pitch 18.4% of the time, with impressive results. .404/.410/.648/1059 on 344 AB. And just like all hitters he is not nearly as productive with two strikes. But he is much more prolific swinging early in the count than either Mookie or Max.
Other Dodger hitters on swinging and hitting 1st pitch seen:
- Belli – 9.8%
- JT – 10.7%
- Joc – 9.5%
- CT3 – 12.2%
- AJ – 11.8%
- Kike’ – 9.3%
I have not done any kind of research to see what other teams do with 1st pitch. But other than Corey, most Dodgers are not nearly as aggressive on the 1st pitch. I do know the Dodgers do like to build up pitch counts, but I do not pretend to claim that it is an organizational philosophy to not be as aggressive as Corey Seager on 1st pitch seen. Dodgers hitters are looking to attack mistakes, but with at least 1-0. They are looking for 1st pitch ball, and then they can dominate. I also recognize that Seager was getting as much grief when he was not hitting because he was too aggressive while the other hitters were being more patient. Sometimes you just cannot win. In baseball, when success in hitting is measured by being successful in 30% of their AB’s, much more can go wrong than can go right, and fans love to pounce on that (me included).
Apparently the swing at the 1st pitch is contrary to the analytics community, which seems to be driving some (most) of these decisions. See article below on a more comprehensive review of 1st pitch hitting:
https://www.royalsreview.com/2018/9/11/17819626/first-pitch-swing-strike-ball-lee-judge
So it would appear that teams are pushing for patience to take the 1st pitch, and “hoping” the pitcher throws a ball.
However, I do see Doc making multiple mistakes with game strategy, as I do believe he did with leaving Kike’ in to bat in the 8th inning of Game 3 and Game 4 with the bases loaded. But does he make more than other managers? Again it is easy to look back and determine that Doc made a mistake, but what would another manager do in that same situation? We can never adequately answer that question. I know many would surmise that a “better” manager would have PH Matt Beaty in that critical 8th inning AB of both games, and Beaty would have hit a bases clearing double to take the lead. Of course he would. If we were managing the team, the Dodgers would be 4-0.
Where I think that Doc has garnered his most criticism is in his stubbornness on staying with a player too long or using the same strategy over and over with little if any change in the results. Doc is a players’ manager and he seems to do whatever is necessary to prove that a player belongs in a specific situation every time. He did it with Pedro Baez when he was labeled El Gasolino by our own Dodgerrick. He stuck with CT3 as the leadoff when his OBP was hovering .250. He continued to trot out Joc to 1B even though it was obvious to everyone (including Joc) that he did not belong at 1B. Maybe if he worked on it all winter with a 1B coach he could become a decent 1B, but during the season? Most everyone believes that Kike’ is a super utility player (me included), but he has never shown that he is an everyday player, and yet he continues to get that chance. This reliance on L-R-L-R is maddening, but he (and probably AF) believes it to be the best strategy. Okay I am not a ML manager so why even consider my opinion. But try something different every once in a while to see if there might be a difference. It’s only been 32 years since the last championship. Even my patience is growing thin.
I have no idea who would be a better manager, but it is obvious that we are all better than Doc AFTER the fact. Doc’s decisions are more than fair game. He gets paid a lot of money to manage an elite MLB team. I am sure he anticipates a lot of negativity when the Dodgers lose, and he will continue to get more than his share. I will say this, Doc may be managing an elite team, but he cannot be considered an elite manager until he wins the postseason. Even then, it will be, “but that was before, what about now?”
Count me in as one who wanted Corey Kluber. It appears that I would have been acquiring damaged goods. Once again, AF has proven that he is a far better baseball evaluator than I am. I know there are those out there who believe they are better, and yet they still sit here on a blog while AF continues to be employed in MLB. Just like Doc, AF is fair game for criticism, and while he has made mistakes, his pluses far outweigh his negatives. With respect to Kluber, I think the Rangers will find a better way to spend $18MM next year, and will choose to buyout Kluber’s 2021 option at $1MM. Pitcher’s shoulders, elbows, and backs are fragile making it very difficult to spend large dollars over long term on FA pitchers. What will teams be willing to pay next year for James Paxton (at 32), Robbie Ray (at 29), and Marcus Stroman (at 30), perhaps the three best FA starting pitchers next winter?
Tuesday starts the beginning of a 9 game three city road trip. Game 1 is Walker Buehler vs 26 year old Dominican LHP Framber Valdez. Dustin May goes in Game 2, vs TBD. Per the transaction list, CK was placed on the 10 day IL on July 23. He should be eligible to come off the IL on Sunday, August 2 against the DBacks, or any of the three Padres games.
I know it is a 60 game sprint, but maybe we should have a little more patience. Here is where I would embed a youtube video of Guns N Roses, singing Patience, but that particular video is really not appropriate, so we are going to have to have some patience for another musical interlude as well.
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Discussion (104)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Watford, your sharing of your experiences with your sons was very touching and informative. It reminds us that pro players are people first with families and life circumstances. It’s easy to forget that sometimes. These guys aren’t robots. It’s cool Pollock and his family chose for him to play and MT is spot on when he states “ballplayers, play”
Back to being aggressive early in counts at taking pitches, Badger shares my opinion perfectly with his thoughts “My approach, the one I used and the one I coached, is what we used to call Dead Red. Look fastball in your zone. Step into the box ready to drive that pitch. If he gives it to you and you straighten it out the chances are he won’t do it again. If you look at it then he starts out with the advantage in that at bat and you never want to just give that away. Pitch counts? Look, if as a team you get the reputation of attacking cookies I can guarantee you they will soon stop giving them to you, start nibbling or throwing breaking balls and you will accomplish driving up pitch counts and do it on your terms. Admittedly this is old school philosophy and I have no algorithms to support this strategy.”
I too can look at all the algorithms and statistics you want but with my eyes, when I see hitter after hitter taking a “get me over” fat fastball for strike one and end up getting forced to hit a pitcher’s pitch late, It’s time for an adjustment. As Badger states, look dead red, in a spot, and let it eat. And it goes without saying we are swing at strikes and not chasing.
I have used a chart Like Jeff posted showing batting averages by count for many years. My philosophy in coaching both pitchers and hitters was slightly different. While strike one is important the most pivotal pitch (as mention in this article also) is 1 and 1. The difference between hitting 2 and 1 versus 1 and 2 is .178. Both pitchers and hitters need to be aggressive on 1 and 1.
And with the new school approach of openers and a different pitcher every inning, running up pitch counts isn’t an advantage. So, maybe you want to see what a guy has but I’m not fooling around late with men on. When you’ve stranded like 40 runners in 2 games, I want to hunt a fastball early.
I have made no comments about Doc’s managing so far but I said earlier that the Dodgers are a great team without a great manager. Good guy, good with players but stubborn as a mule.
Then again most people think they can do 3 things 1. Write a book 2. run a bar 3. manage a baseball team. At least I know I can.
Despite my recent view on Alex Wood starting, I feel bad for him. I don’t dislike Wood. I like him and his funky delivery. I won’t forget him being the one guy who mowed down the Cheaters during the World Series in Houston. It was just apparent at sub-90 there are better options. I hope his injury isn’t serious. I do look forward to May and Goose starting. I wish we could watch Goose hit, but I won’t start ranting about all of the stupid rule changes this year.
~
I feel for Pollock too. Our daughter had the lowest hemoglobin ever at the University of Iowa Hospitals. Fortunately, after a rushed emergency C-section and 2 blood transfusions, Brooklyn, made it just fine. The doctors and nurses told me later they didn’t think she would make it, but fortunately she was big for a pre-mee and a girl. They said a boy would not have made it. Girls tend to be fighters when they’re pre-mees. I was shocked to see my daughter when she was born. White as a ghost. It was congratulations, but we need you to sign this paperwork right away. I can’t imagine being AJ and seeing a 1 lb baby.
AC…question. Can the Taxi Squad be changed every road trip? Not that I want to see it changed. I love it.
Taxi Squad for the three city road trip:
Victor Gonzalez
Rocky Gale
Zach McKinstry
Hard to believe Buehler will be very sharp tonight or last very long. Could be a long bullpen game tonight.
I agree Bobby. Alex was a guy I enjoyed watch pitch. He was great for us in 2017 going 16-3 and 3.73 era leading the league in winning percentage. He definitely contributed during the year to get us to the post season. If Vin didn’t say,” His delivery is all elbows and kneecaps “ he should have. And the trade when he went to the Reds brought Gray back. I hope he can get thru this and end this season on a high note. I can’t help but root for Alex Wood.
I really wanted to give Alex Wood the benefit of the doubt after he pitched, but here is what I said:
Alex Wood was clearly out of sync. Early this spring, he was hitting 93 or 94 with his fastball. He never hit 91 yesterday. His control was way off too, so he is either just out of sync (his delivery is prone to that) or he is canceling an injury (he is prone to that too).
I was leaning towards injury… and it turns out that is what it is. Now I will say what I really think:
His career as a Dodger is over.
Jeff D. was right, Alex Wood is likely done and Sborz is up for a few days with Gonsolin tanking his place for a minute… or longer.
Damn, Wat and DBM, your stories are amazing. So yes, you can definitely relate to and feel for the Pollock family.
Quas, I don’t disagree with you. The Trashtros need to pay because Rob Manfred didn’t do a damn thing when he should have. Although I”m not a proponent of injuring someone, I am a proponent of sending a strong message and letting them feel that message for a few days.
Any team that would cheat in the World Series would probably find a more sophisticated method to get away with cheating after seeing just how much damage they did when being able to avoid Kershaw’s off-speed pitches. The only thing I’ve ever heard from the mouth of any Astro was they didn’t cheat in the World Series. A couple of them deserves to be beaned even to the point of injury.
Really touching story, Watford. One does not quite know things in the background of the player’s personal life that affect their decisions. I have a new-founded respect for Pollock and his wife now. I pray their little girl does well. He is a brave young man and shows great character.
As a mother of premature twins weighing slightly over two pounds each and losing at first with complications, I know how Pollock and his wife worry about the days after the birth of their daughter hoping to see a weight gain and like you say holding your breath for good news. . I am also glad your little boy is doing well. Thanks so much for sharing.
Thanks for that post and the information WD. It just brings home again that baseball is not the most important thing in the world.
Frankly, if I were a member of AJ’s family I would encourage him to opt out right now. He’s made plenty of money in the game already, has more years on his contract and the chance of harming his daughter is more than slight. I know his teammates would back him if he made that decision. I hope, upon further reflection, he does.
Hi guys – The Marlins demise is worrying news for the season. Nothing like that has happened here in a sporting sense. Everything has gone amazingly well, although you guys are starting the season in a more acute situation than we were in.
Hope you don’t mind, but I wanted to take a minute to point out something that is very real for me, and worthy of a very positive mention to somebody who doesn’t seem to be much of a favourite around here (Pete excluded), and that’s AJ Pollock, and his decision to play this season at all, considering what he has recently gone through.
Here is an an article i recently read-
Open on www.google.co.ukhttps://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.espn.com.au/mlb/story/_/id/29483720/dodgers-aj-pollock-opens-positive-test-daughter-premature-birth%3fplatform=ampMy first son Ben was born 7 weeks prematurely (33 weeks of a 40 week pregnancy).
The medical people didn’t seem overly concerned when we arrived at the hospital and so it proved.
However, when some years later we found ourselves at the same hospital 13 weeks before the due date with my second boy, Will, things were very different.
We were taken by ambulance to a Neo Natal Hospital that specialised in Prem births, with all lights flashing.
We were told that at week 27, 80% of
babies are expected to survive, and of that 80%, half would have either breathing problems or brain damage.
Will had a bleed on the brain at birth, and has Cerebral Palsy.
He weighed in at 2lbs.
He was lucky though, and of all the things that a brain bleed can affect, vision, hearing, speech, memory and things like intelligence, or a combination of those things, his is mobility. He has a stiffness in his lower left leg, and walks with a limp.
However, he is bright as a button, and is in the English squad for Cerebral Palsy Soccer at his age group, so things are good.
Aj’s daughter was born at week 24, weighing 1.6punds, and I can tell you, that is small.
He then contracted C19, and neither he or his wife could visit the child for 10 days.
She will have been in an incubator with tubes coming from every direction.
Will was in one for 79 days. Your life goes on hold, and you visit or stay multiple times a day. They could not do that. That must’ve been incredibly hard. Every day you’re holding your breath, and as you can imagine, rather stressful.
It’s good news as she is now home.
The reason for this long winded post, is that I find it incredible that AJ has decided to play at all. He must’ve been beside himself, and although the baby is home, is still very vulnerable. They as parents must know they have a long road ahead. Week 24 is unbelievably early.
For him to be there with his teammates says a lot for me about his character and importantly his desire. No one would have blamed him for staying home.
I really hope he is rewarded with a WS ring to show his girl in years to come.
Good stuff here.
Skitter. Yep
rick, as always, well put.
Jeff, you too, well said
STB – not surprisingly I agree with you.
AC – yes, bad form Marlins and….. can we blame Driveline?
Voldy – yeah, where’s Gonsolin? I think I take him over Santana. I think, I don’t know. Hard to know anything these days. What is and what is ain’t? Beats me.
How many of us recognize the picture used on this thread? If you do, you’re old.
Perhaps there was something wrong with Alex Wood. He was put on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Josh Sborz has been recalled to replace Wood. It would appear that Kershaw will come off the IL when his 10 days are up, and the team can continue with their 5 man rotation. It would appear that Alex’s Dodger days are numbered.
Nothing about this season is going to be predictable because we have no clue how each individual ballplayer is dealing with the cloud hanging over the season, that being Covid-19. Some players will not let it affect them in the slightest. Others will have a hard time concentrating because they will be worried about their health or even more so their family’s health. Some may get part way into the season and opt out because they can’t handle the pressure any longer. I’m just going to sit back and let it play out, if in fact it actually does play out, and enjoy every game that is played.
The Nationals have just voted not to go to Miami for their weekend series. Interestingly, they don’t get to decide, MLB does. Let’s see if they respect the Nats vote. They would look pretty bad if they told them they had to go or would forfeit the games.
Houston and revenge – I guess you can fall into one of two camps on that one.
1) “My name is Inigo Montoya, you stole my championship, prepare to die!” —–Princess Bride slightly modified
2) “An eye for an eye will only make the whole world blind.” ——-Gandhi
I’m not so concerned with the lack of power, runners left on base, and hiccups from the starting pitchers. This is still early in the season with a very short spring training. Essentially we have the same position players who led last year In home runs and over 100 wins plus Mookie. If we are leaving men on base that means we are getting opportunities that eventually will start to be cashed in. Once the pitchers start getting stretched out if think good things will happen. When we get this train rolling no team is going to stop us.
I am less concerned at this point about what buttons that Dave Roberts will push than I am in the lack of execution that we have seen thus far from the Dodgers. As I posted yesterday, they lead the league in men LOB and most of the Blue haven’t hit with RISP this year. If this weren’t a chronic concern I would chalk it up to a slow start under strange circumstances but in most of the past 7 otherwise successful seasons, lack of hitting RISP has been a big issue. In a 60 game season, they can’t wait to start situational hitting – they have to do it now.
The other issue is starting pitching. Roberts can only put the guys out there who are available to pitch. Stripling was brilliant. May acquitted himself well. The version of Alex Wood who can’t break 90 MPH or pitch off of his fastball won’t work. Notwithstanding some of yesterday’s comments, Urias gave up a lot of loud outs on Sunday and wasn’t fooling anyone. A fastball without good location or good movement is hittable and his secondary stuff wasn’t there either. I have hopes for Urias based on what I saw last year but maybe those who have opined that he is better over just a few innings are right and he isn’t really a starter – I guess we’ll find out this year.
I would love for the Dodgers to gut punch those cheatin’ ‘Stros. This is a chance to regain momentum.
The Dodgers have one of the highest road win % in the majors, and only 4 teams have a higher one. So far, the home team has had a slight advantage in this fanless season, 30-28, by my count. This would give the Dodgers a favored position playing Houston at home. I can’t imagine them not playing aggressively on this road trip. For whatever reason, they took their foot off the gas with the Giants. Maybe they were lulled to sleep. I was, too.
As was pointed out by one of our posters, the Power seems to be missing, so far. We all know the Dodgers are built for power. Would love to see them shake the cobwebs off and explode. Corey still doesn’t seem to have gotten back the power he used to have. He’s a doubles machine that seems to have lost that extra oomph to take his fly balls over the fence. I’ll still take his doubles and the way he is hitting this year, but what happened to his power? He looks stronger than ever and more assured at the plate.
Not being aggressive does not bother me. But last season, Doc would have pinch hit for Kike both games. And it probably would have been Beaty, because all they needed was a hit to get back into the game. If they wanted a homer, it would be either Joc or Rios. Bad baseball decision and I said that before Kike made the out. I would have pinch hit for Taylor too.
Interesting read Jeff.
“ If we were managing the team, the Dodgers would be 4-0.“
Good one.
About the first pitch thing. My approach, the one I used and the one I coached, is what we used to call Dead Red. Look fastball in your zone. Step into the box ready to drive that pitch. If he gives it to you and you straighten it out the chances are he won’t do it again. If you look at it then he starts out with the advantage in that at bat and you never want to just give that away. Pitch counts? Look, if as a team you get the reputation of attacking cookies I can guarantee you they will soon stop giving them to you, start nibbling or throwing breaking balls and you will accomplish driving up pitch counts and do it on your terms. Admittedly this is old school philosophy and I have no algorithms to support this strategy.
I already addressed the Doc thing in the last thread. I shall not regurgitate, which means to repeat. Feel free to express your opinion on why I might be off base.
We are favored today, 9 runs O/U. I got us and push on the runs. 5-4. If it goes to 9.5, I’ll risk the over, 6-4.
I’d say Taylor Swift’s “You Need to Calm Down!”
Here’s my vote:
The man in the back said “Everyone Attack!”