Organizational Failure
If you have been around baseball for as long as I have (and many of you have been around it longer), if a team won the NL or AL Pennant, they played the winner of the opposite league in the World Series. Then, if they won four games in that series, they were declared World…
If you have been around baseball for as long as I have (and many of you have been around it longer), if a team won the NL or AL Pennant, they played the winner of the opposite league in the World Series. Then, if they won four games in that series, they were declared World Champion. Simple! They were the best team in baseball that season. It was simple. It was clear. It’s not that way anymore!
Now, if you win the division, you have to sit out for a week while the Wild Card teams play a best-of-three series. Then, as a Division Winner, you play a five-game series before you play the Division Championship Series, which is before you play for the World Championship. So, unlike the “good old days,” there are a lot more variables, and the playoffs are more of a crapshoot than ever before. However, it does not mean that you can’t evolve and still win. That is exactly what we are talking about. What can the Dodgers do to improve in the playoffs?
Andrew Friedman called it an “organizational failure,” and I agree with that. Organizational failure is a significant inefficiency, misdeed, strategic misstep, or failure to manage risk that results in the deterioration or collapse of an organization. The question is: Where do the Dodgers go from here, and what can they do to prevent it from happening again?
I am going to prove that analytics may be at fault. “What? That is heresy!” Yes, the Dodgers use analytics as much or more than any other team. Analytics work! They work over a long season. “X player does not hit RHP well, so we try to limit his exposure against RHP.” Analytics work, but they work in large samplings. If you flip a coin five times, it may end up heads four times, but over 162 times, it will likely be close to 50/50. However, what works in the 162 may not work in five games. Do you get where I am going with this?
Over the 162, analytics win EVERY TIME, but in a short sampling, it is not as apparent. Crapshoot may not be the right word, but Andrew Friedman explained why things happen randomly and what can be done to correct that. It should not be lost on any of us that no team has ever won back-to-back World Championships for 23 years. It is harder than ever before – that is a fact. There is more talent than ever before, more scouting and analytics than ever before. There are more competitors than ever before. It is harder than ever before to win a World Championship.
Here’s the interview with Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes, and it should be noted that Andrew took ultimate responsibility for the organizational failure.
There are things they will do differently next year… especially in the realm of keeping batters sharp, but who knows… maybe next year they will be a Wild Card and win from that spot. All the teams left this season are Wild Cards… except one. Don’t tell me it’s not a crapshoot! However, if you want wrapped up, simple, tidy, and pat answers… there ain’t none! It’s complicated!
The hitters failed to hit in the playoffs against the Padres last year and the Diamondbacks this year. Was the layoff responsible? Of course, it was, but it is not an excuse. It will likely be the same way next year, so the Dodgers had better figure out something… like maybe dividing up into two teams and having a best-of-five “playoff.” That may be a simple fix. In fact, I am surprised they did not do that this year. They did play one scrimmage game, but that was it.
The pitching failure, namely the starting pitching failure was a total debacle that, unless Friedman wanted to gut the farm, could not be easily fixed. You can spin it all you want, however you want, but Dustin May was back after TJ (Wheeler had TJ and came back a few years ago), Julio Urias had just completed his second dominant season and was the staff ace. Kershaw was expected to win 12-15 games (which he did), and Ryan Pepiot was ready to take the next step. The Catman was a question mark, but he was only needed as a #5. Thor was the question mark, but he seemed like a worthy option… until he proved that you can’t fix stupid! The Dodgers had a plethora of youngsters close to ready. What could go wrong? Only everything! Friedman could not have imagined in his wildest nightmares what would happen next:
- Thor thought the Dodgers could help him regain his 101 MPH fastball and pitched like he still had it;
- Dustin May’s arm blew up early;
- Tony Gonsolin’s arm blew up later;
- Kershaw’s shoulder limited his pitching in the second half to just a few innings;
- Ryan Pepoit had an oblique injury for most of the season;
- The rookies showed promise, especially Bobby Miller, but other than Bobby, they were not ready: and
- Julio Urias came out of the gate pitching like an AA pitcher and then turned his wife into a punching bag (allegedly).
Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes could not fix all of that, and nor should they have gutted the system to try. Stuff happens. Yesterday, it was mentioned that Jerry Dipoto made a good trade in getting Luis Castillo. It was one of the few good ones he has made, as he is on the hot seat in Seattle. However, in defense of Friedman, it was rumored that #1. Castillo was damaged goods with arm issues. #2. The Mariners wanted Ryan Pepiot, James Outman, and Kyle Hurt. Bobby Miller’s name was in the mix as well.
Last year’s pitching disaster is behind them, and the Dodgers have a clear path to their own starters. Friedman will swing a trade or two and make a free agent signing or two to build back depth. It is my opinion that Clayton will not pitch in 2024. Neither will Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May and Walker Buehler is a question mark… to be determined in the Spring. Pepioty, Miller, and Sheehan look ready and Gavin Stone could be. Nick Frasso is not far behind as is Landon Knack. Also, watch out for Kyle Hurt as a multi-inning lockdown reliever. Maybe Andrew Friedman should have gutted the farm… but he didn’t and I for one, am glad. Let’s get ’em next year!
Arizona Fall League
- Damon Keith went 1-5 with an RBI and three strikeouts.
- Kendall Williams started and went four innings, allowing three hits and two earned runs. He did not walk a batter and struck out three.
- Ben Casparius pitched one inning and allowed one hit, three BBs, and two ERs.
- Ryan Sublette pitched a clean inning, striking out two.
You can never be sure what these guys are working on.
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Discussion (58)
Disagree, not disagreeable
It’s all about the pitching this offseason. I still like the idea of Ohtani being a Dodger even though he won’t pitch in 2024. Hey, it’s not my money and it seems there will always be a fan base that allows the Dodgers to put 45,000+ fans in seats to purchase a lot of parking, Dodger Dogs and Micheladas’.
Watching game #1 and game #2 of the NLCS, both Wheeler and Nola are on top of their game right now and carved the D-Back line-up much like the D-Back line-up went through the Dodger line-up. Game #1 top of the first Carroll led off with a bloop base hit and Wheeler went to work by easily getting through the next three hitters. I thought to myself that is what an ace is supposed to do and thought back to CK in the first inning and how helpless and hapless he looked. He did not have any swing and miss in his arsenal and indeed looked like a shell of his former self. Miller could not land his off speed stuff and the D-Back hitters were sitting in his FB in game #2.
It is all about pitching, especially in the post season, and it’s clear AF and Gomes are going hunting this off season. Not sure who they’re going to target but I think they need two dominant pitchers either acquired via FA or trade. As an example something like this for next year:
Nola
Snell
Pepiot
Miller
Buehler
I didn’t expect AF to lay out his entire off season plan nor has he probably completed his plan as of right now, but I am a bit disappointed he mentioned all coaches would be back. I would like to see the staff examined a bit more closely, and while Doc is safe, do the Dodgers need a couple of new voices among the coaching staff? I’m not a van of RVS and after a complete post season offensive meltdown I think he should be let go.
If AF doesn’t go big this off season I think he might be reading the LA fan base incorrectly. LA fans loves to see their teams go big…….Lebron and AD to the Lakers, Manny Ramirez, Mookie and Freddie to the Dodgers, Stafford, Ramsey and Von Miller to the Rams as an example of just a few. If AF again swims in just the shallow end of the pool I think fans might bring their pitch forks to DS.
My pal Peter Schmuck–yes, that’s his name–who broke in as a baseball writer during Fernandomania and later covered the Orioles for decades has decided to cure what ails baseball. (I was rooting for a Dodgers-Orioles series both for his sake and to avenge the O’s 4-0 WS sweep of the Dodgers back in 1966.) Here’s a column Pete recently wrote:
It appears that the decision two seasons ago to expand the wild-card round of the playoffs has had an unintended consequence.
Just ask the Dodgers and Braves.
I know, I know, the Orioles should be on that list, but it is those other 100-win division champs and Division Series losers who provide the best evidence that the long layoff that they “won” at the end of the regular season is more of an advantage for the teams that get through the four first-round series.
Both the Dodgers and Braves also were eliminated short of the league championship round last year and only one of the four byes this year survived, which means that five of the eight winningest teams in the sport weren’t around to play for a pennant in 2022 and 2023.
We’ll find out in the coming years whether this is a sustaining trend or just a coincidence, but it seems pretty obvious that something is causing so many great teams to go to sleep during their first playoff action. It’s been enough of a concern that the managers of those teams all spent time during the layoff trying to find ways to keep their pitchers and hitters sharp, but there really is no way to simulate real competition.
So, did the Texas Rangers actually catch a break when they lost their divisional tie-breaker to the Houston Astros and got a two-game tuneup against the severely wounded Tampa Bay Rays ahead of their three-game sweep of the Orioles?
The case can be made that the reason they have won five straight games (and four of them on the road) is because they had to grind right to the end of the regular season and keep grinding a couple days later.
“It’s interesting,’’ said Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias when asked about that during his post-playoff press conference on Thursday. “I’m following it. I’m aware of what’s going on with the other teams like you [the media] are.
“First of all, I don’t want to make that as an excuse. I do not believe that was the difference between us winning or getting swept in the ALDS the way we did. I don’t have a big opinion on it.”
Well, I do. The other reason I didn’t list the Orioles with the Dodgers and Braves was because the Orioles had stopped hitting a week before they walked off the field after their final game of the regular season. And they had a couple of very green pitchers struggle in their playoff debuts, which isn’t exactly an unusual occurrence.
Still, it seems clear that the new format is creating more parity in the latter stages of the postseason, and the only question about that is whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing.
There already was some evidence before the recent changes that the wild-card teams arrived in the postseason sharper because they had to battle the better teams in all three divisions to get those final playoff spots – often right up to the last day of the season while the biggest winners were looking at prospects and resting starters for the final week or so.
The Astros, the only division winner to advance to the LCS round, also had to battle to the final day to win the AL West title on that tie-breaker with the Rangers. The other playoff-layoff teams went a combined 1-9 in the divisional round.
Not sure there’s anything to be done about that, since no team is going to pull up at the end of the regular season and choose to take the extra playoff round, but if the whole point of having all these wild-card teams is to keep more teams in contention, have more playoff games and generate more national television revenue, why not add two more wild-card teams and play an eight-team seeded draw in each league.
That way, everybody ends the regular season on Sunday and everybody has either a one-day or two-day break before starting the playoffs.
That would reward the winningest teams with lesser competition in the first round and – theoretically – lead to more intense competition throughout and maybe even a few more network paydays.
It certainly didn’t break my heart to see the mighty fall in the NLDS, but I can’t imagine the TV execs enjoyed watching two big-market teams with national followings fall by the wayside (for the second year in a row) with the biggest ratings rounds still ahead.
It is easy to place blame after the fact, and most Dodger fans jumped on Roberts. But it was his players who let the fans down. Kershaw going 1/3rd of an inning and allowing 6 runs? Kersh never had an outing that bad in his baseball life, but it happened. Sheehan tried to keep the D-Backs at bay, and allowed a couple of runs. Game one was lost before they even started. But even with Miller giving up 3 runs in game two, it was winnable. Trouble was that the offense was still asleep. Granted Lynn gave up four bombs in an inning. That was not surprising, what was surprising was that Roberts left him out there to give up #4. But they could have won that game too. They left way too many men on base. They had the bases loaded and scored 2. They were 2-5 with runners in scoring position. Why Roberts sent Barnes up to pinch hit for Peralta is a head scratcher. Barnes doesn’t hit lefties at all, and he swung at the first pitch. Peralta was hitting over .300 against lefties. One glaring difference to me was the hitters not working the count. There were way too many first pitch outs. Only Hernandez and Smith hit at all in the loss.