Observations from the BullPen

This is the Wackiest Offseason in recent memory for many reasons.  The Dodgers are coming off a 111 win season with few holes to fill and a trio of potential rookies that are ready or very close to ready for the Show.  Then the front office decided to create more holes by not picking up JT’s club option while also deciding not to offer arbitration to former MVP, Cody Bellinger creating a couple of holes while doing little to fill them up.  Is this foreshadowing?  Are they fully confident it’s Vargas, Bush and Outman time?

If you believe the rumors, the Dodgers were in on everyone, including all 4 big-name shortstops.  3 of them signed contracts that will pay them into their 40’s!  Andrew Friedman did the right thing and passed on the dope fiend contracts.  It seems that the new collective bargaining agreement created a flurry of big spenders without regard for any financial austerity.

• Jacob deGrom, at age 34 is coming off a 1.4 WAR season throwing just 64 innings while posting a 3.08 ERA.  This earned him a contract of 5 years at $37M per year while paying him through his age 39 season after not pitching 100 innings in each of the last three years.
• Justin Verlander, will be 40 years old next season.  He received a three-year deal paying him a whopping $43M+ per year for ages 41, 42 and 43.  Few pitchers have pitched this deep into their lifetimes, and even fewer have done some without a little help.  I’m looking at you Roger Clemens.
• Carlos Correa signed a 13 year deal with the Giants where he’ll be paid just shy of $27M per year and will pay him through his age 40 season.  He played in just 133 games last season and the Giant’s top prospect is a SS.  He hasn’t played in at least 150 games in a season since his age 21 season.  What kind of genius re-signs a 34 year old shortstop after a career year, only to watch him lose close to 250 points in OPS the following year, then signs an often injured shortstop through his age 40 season the very next year?  This is craziness!
• Xander Bogaerts also signed a contract that will pay him through his age 40 season, on an 11-year $25.5M AAV deal.  This was after he put in his first good defensive season at SS and will play SS on a team that has 3 other players that play better shortstop than him.
• Trea Turner received an 11-year deal to play for the Phillies and his buddy Bryce Harper for 27+ per year.  This contract also runs through his age 40 season.  So much of Trea’s game is a result of his speed.  How long is that going to last?

This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.  I’m glad AF didn’t sign any player through age 40, much less a shortstop, one of the most demanding positions on the field.  It’s extremely rare that a player will be good going into their 40’s.  Look no further than our own Justin Turner who just completed his age 37 season.  His offense peaked at age 32 and has been in a freefall since.  Looking at OPS in each year beginning with that peak at 945 — 924, 881, 861, 832, 788.

Pitching Staff Outlook

On the pitching side of the house, the Dodgers said goodbye to Starters Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney.  They also lost relievers Craig Kimbrel, Chris Martin, Tommy Kahnle, and David Price.  Did David Price pitch any meaningful innings in his 3 years with the team?  He’ll be remembered as the pitching version of Carl Crawford.

Tommy Kahnle threw just 12 innings for us last season.  Craig Kimbrel was worse than Jansen was the year before and Chris Martin was very good for those 24 innings in a Dodgers uniform.  AF replaced them with Jake Reed, Shelby Miller and, J.P. Feyereisen.  This will probably end up being a wash.

The big signing of Thor will help replace Heaney and Anderson and I’m very bullish on this signing.  Thor was once a big-name rising star and has always been much more talented than Anderson or Heaney.  If they can do what they did with Anderson and Heaney, we could have another Ace on our hands.  I mean, if you’re starting with better tools, the results should be even better, right?

Let’s not forget about all those minor-league pitchers and what they’ll add during the upcoming season.  Ryan Pepiot did quite well in his first season in the show.  Grove was serviceable and Andre Jackson was pretty damn good as a long reliever at the end of the season.  None of them have the tools that Bobby Miller has.  None of them were as dominant as Gavin Stone.  The pitching staff is set.

Position Players and the Rooks

If you think Lux can’t play shortstop, you should watch this video…

Not only is Lux capable of playing the position, he’s capable of playing it better than the last two shortstops we’ve had.  He’ll have a bad throw here and there, but he’ll make plays that Corey and Trea can’t.  He’s rangy and has soft hands.  I think the footwork on his throws is the only thing keeping him from being a great defensive shortstop.

If Outman is better than Belli and Lux is just a little worse than Trea on offense, we’re probably in good shape going into next year.  I think there’s an even chance for that to happen and considering that Max Muncy will be back to full strength, the offense as a whole will be as potent as last season’s lineup with a little luck going our way.  It will be better if Busch, Outman and Vargas perform near their minor league stats.  But, if that trio can average a 750 OPS between them, the offense will be very close to last year’s.

My gut feeling is that the Dodgers will eventually bring back JT, unless a better option falls into their laps.  This makes a lot of sense even if JT declines a little further.  He’ll mentor Vargas at 3B and provide the Dodgers with many options to get the rookies going, or to let them sit and think about things when they aren’t going right. 

Another Division Title

Objectively Speaking, the Dodgers are very close to the team they were last season.

The Starting Pitching is essentially the same.  Instead of having Heaney and Anderson as projects to work on, they have Shelby Miller and Noah Syndergaard.  Gonsolin, May and Urias are a year older and are still getting better and Clayton showed no signs of slowing down in limited use last season.

The Bullpen is better to start the season than it was last year.  We don’t have an established closer, but it’s not like Craig Kimbrel was dominant at the end of the games last season.  Phillips will be a step up if they choose to use him in the closer role and Hudson, Almonte and Vesia can handle the high leverage situations before the ninth inning.

The roster sits at 39 once the Thor contract is official.  JT or another option will make 40.  Feyereisen, Buehler, and Treinen will start the season on the 60-day IL, allowing the Dodgers to add Jason Heyward, Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller to the 40-man to start the season. 

The resulting lineup has a lot of options and flexibility allowing the Dodgers to give the three rookies a runway without being over reliant on their success.

C – Smith, Barnes

1B – Freeman, Muncy, Busch, Vargas

2B – Lux, Muncy, Busch, CT3, Betts

3B – Vargas, Muncy, (Maybe JT), CT3

SS – Lux, CT3, Amaya

LF – Thompson, CT3, Heyward, Busch, Vargas

CF – Outman, Thompson, CT3, Betts

RF – Betts, Heyward, Outman, CT3, Thompson

Wildcards – Cartaya, Pages, Leonard, Vivas, DeLuca are all quality players that could jump the shark and pull a Belli arriving a year early.  While I don’t think this will necessarily happen, it’s certainly a possibility that gets a whole lot better when you have so many young prospects that are so close to the highest level.  They can also use some of them at the deadline to fill a need after trying out kids in the first half of the season.  The result is they are in a great position to compete for the division while also resetting the cap for future spending with minimal penalties. 

What is Elite?

There was a discussion about “Elite Prospects” the other day.  This was more a semantics argument than a knock on the farm. Well, maybe it was a knock on the farm from the negative Nancys that tend to dominate sites like this one.

My point is that the term “Elite” is subjective in that it means different things to different people.  Here are some points to consider…

• Elite MLB player and Elite prospect are not synonymous and one doesn’t guarantee the other. Max Muncy was not an elite prospect, bet he’s very close to an elite player overall.  Jurickson Profar was once an elite prospect, but never came close to being an elite player.  Aaron Judge is an elite player, but was he ever an elite prospect?  His first full season was at age 25.  Pete Alonzo was never higher than 51 on a top 100 prospect list, but has been one of the best first baseman in baseball for years now.
• To me, It’s easy to define an Elite MLB player.  They have a game just for these players in the middle of the season each summer just after the 4^th of July holiday.  They’re called All-Stars.  I guess to some, the bar is higher.  But, when you’re one of the top two players at each position in each league, I don’t think it’s out of the question to be labelled elite.
• Elite Prospects are the best prospects throughout the minors.  The ones that play in the Futures games or the ones that excel in the AFL are Elite prospects whether you think so or not.  They are recognized throughout baseball as the best of the best.  Not all of them become elite players and some don’t even become good players.  But, that doesn’t change the fact that they were elite in the minors.
• If you argue that Gavin Lux wasn’t an Elite prospect, you don’t know what you’re talking about.  He checked all the boxes and was the No 2 prospect in all of baseball, was invited to a futures game and won a Minor League Player of the Year award.  It doesn’t get much more “Elite” than that. 
• Lux started the season a little slow, hitting 255 with an OPS of 723 at the end of April and a 263 with an OPS of 682 at the end of May.  In June, July and August combined, he hit 311/384/487/871 and was the 3^rd best second basemen in the league behind only McNeil (Age 30) and Altuve (Age 32).  Lux is just 24 and we haven’t seen the best Gavin Lux quite yet.  In fact, just look to Trea Turner’s age 24 season and you’ll see a lot of similarities.  Lux is the next Trea Turner. 
• Andy Pages was a top 5 hitter in the AFL this past season, maybe top 2.  He is a borderline Elite prospect, just turned 22 years old and has Elite power and an Elite outfield arm.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins a job out of Spring Training. 
• Diego Cartaya is a year younger than Pages, he has elite power, and is considered the best or second-best catching prospect in the minors right now depending on which ranking list you choose.

It seems that AC is making this claim about elite prospects going by scouting grades which are usually established early on and never updated.  Take for instance Miguel Vargas.  His grades are Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55.  I will point to his run tool.  There is no way his run tool is still a 40.  He’s more like a 55 and his field is more like 50 to 55.  Those increases should be enough to make him an overall 60, putting him at borderline Elite.  You can make a similar case for Busch.  Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Arm: 45 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55.  His Power, Run, Arm and Field have all improved since these grades were etched in stone.  So where does that put him now? 

Roster Outlook

The more I look at this roster, compared to last season’s roster, the more I like it.  It may, or may not be the optimal time to reset the cap or turn to a youth movement.  But, we certainly have enough young guns to keep it interesting.  When you have so many good prospects that are this close to the majors, and are already on the 40-man roster, it should in theory, increase your chances that one or two will step up and deliver expectations. 

Let’s say that the Dodgers call it quits right here, even though there’s one more vacancy on the 40-man roster. 

The pitching staff looks like it can easily be as good, or better than last year’s.  Gone are Kimbrel, Martin, Price, Kahnle, Anderson and Heaney.  Enter Miller, Thor, Reed, V-Gone and Feyereisen.

The big losses on offense are Trea Turner, JT and Cody.  Can an improved Max Muncy to go along with Outman, Vargas, Busch or perhaps Pages, Cartaya, Amaya, Vivas, or Leonard offset the lost offense? 

Can the Padres and Giants make up the twenty-something games in the standings with their offseason moves? 

I think people on this site will be pleasantly surprised to see the Dodgers competing at the highest level next season even if no further moves are made. 

• Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Max Muncy all had down years last season.  They should all improve to some extent.
• Freddie Freeman was a hitting machine.  I would look to see him hit more HR than last season’s 21, but his average and on-base percentage might come down a little.
• Outman will absolutely be better than what we got from Belli last season.  He can hardly do worse.
• Gavin Lux will improve, building on his success last season.
• Chris Taylor will be back to normal after a very bad year last season.
• Trayce Thompson will be a solid 4^th Outfielder, but won’t put up the offense he did last season.

Busch and Vargas are two of the top hitting prospects in all of Minor League baseball.  No one has ever questioned their ability to hit.  The season may very well hinge on what they do on the field next season. If they don’t live up to expectations, this could be a long season.  If they perform better than expected, this season will look a lot like last year.

Like Mark, I’m very excited about Spring Training this year.  I might even be interested to go out there for another trip.  It’ll be fun watching Vargas, Busch, Outman and Amaya getting some playing time this Spring and getting a preview of what the future looks like for this Dodgers team.  There will be bumps along the way, but it will be a fun ride.