I don’t think any Dodger fan (me included) has any idea what kind of effort goes into prospect evaluation, player development, and everything involved with that. How much time do you spend each week on things related to the Los Angeles Dodgers? 40 hours? No way! 20 hours? What would your boss (wife) say? 10 Hours? Maybe… That might be what I spend each week… and that’s a lot!
The reality is that people working in baseball analytics, scouting, and analysis positions routinely work 60-80 hours a week. They gather information, and people like Andrew Friedman are charged with evaluating, processing, and acting on that information. Here’s what this looks like:
The funnel to Andrew Friedman is likely comprised of at least 40-60 people… people who are putting in 60-80 hours per week doing what they do. My point is that if 50 people spend 70 hours a week doing their jobs, it equals 3,500 hours a week of player evaluation. That is over 14,000 hours a month that Andrew Friedman has to process.
Do you think he might (maybe) have a little more understanding about player development and acquisition than any of us do? Maybe! Yet, he still is not always right! He frequently gets it wrong… as does every baseball person, because no matter how much analytics enter into it, prospect evaluation is very subjective. Sometimes you get it right. Sometimes, you get it wrong. The more you exercise your skills, the better you get, but you will never be perfect. Shoot, you may never get over 60% right. But, that’s dang good.
What is!
The Dodgers have what may be baseball’s best 1-2 punch which is Betts and Freeman. They also have Max Muncy. All three of those players had an OPS over .800. OPS don’t lie. If you have an OPS over .800, you are valuable to a team. Atlanta had six players with an OPS over .800 (Acuna, Olson, Ozuna, Riley, Albies, and Harris II). The Dodgers had four (Betts, Freeman, Martinez, Muncy) and two more that were close (Smith at .797 and Outman at .790). Next year, I would hope that Smith and Outman can both improve. Smith by maybe resting more and DH’ing more and Outman just by improving… and I believe he will improve.
Miguel Vargas: There are excuses, and then there are reasons. Two broken fingers are enough to derail even the best hitters. He was trying to play through it, and that was a bad idea. You will see a different player this year. I also believe that Busch will be on the 2024 Dodgers and be a valuable asset.
Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Emmet Sheehan form an extremely solid young core of a pitching staff. Add in Michael Grove, who may be destined to be a multi-inning bullpen arm, along with Kyle Hurt, and you have some electric arms that can build on that experience. Add in the possibility that Striker Buehler will likely be back, and there is only one spot open. In his interview with Dodgers’ Nation last night, Andrew said that Buehler was pitching very well in September. It’s just that he was taking longer to recover between starts, and that is why they shut him down. That gives me a lot of hope that Buehler will at least be close to what he once was.
I do not believe that Andrew Friedman will go out and sign a pitcher who (1.) Has a QO attached to him; and (2.) Who commands a long-term contract. The young staff needs to pitch. You could see pickups like Michael Wacha, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Martin Prez, Cal Quantrill, or maybe Lucas Gilito, Seth Lugo, or Jack Flaherty.
Shohei Ohtani is rumored to be willing to accept a shorter contract with a higher AAV. I could see AF offering him a 5-Year $275 Million Deal with opts out in years there and four. I do not believe AF will pay him $500 Million … nor should he.
I would not be surprised to see this lineup:
- Betts 2B (maybe it’s time to just play one spot that should be easier on his body)
- Freeman 1B (he will have another monster season)
- Martinez DH (the Dodgers love him, and he loves LA-they can make it work)
- Muncy 3B (look for a .900 OPS year from Max)
- Smith C (He is capable of .900 OPS too, if he is not beat up – Is Feduccia an option? I think we find out in the Spring)
- Hernandez (Teoscar)/Heyward (both on two-year deals)
- Outman CF (If James can improve just 10-15% in strikeouts and pitch selection, he will OPS .850)
- Vargas /Busch LF (Time to turn their promise into production)
- Lux SS (all the way back… and more? )
That is a solid lineup. They could use a LHP in the rotation, and Landon Knack and Nick Frasso are knocking at the door, along with Ronan Kopp and others. That is a very viable blend of youth and experience. David Peralta was part of the transition year and was beloved by the Dodgers, but there is no room for him. I do want Kike back – he recently had double hernia surgery so that was an issue last year. Kike hit .375 in the playoffs and overall, as a Dodger, hit .262 with just a 17% strikeout percentage.
P.S. How would you like to be a Padre Fan? No manager, no owner, and AJ Preller as GM. Ron Fowler and his group own 49% of the team, but I am not sure they have the capital to buy out Seidler’s estate. It is almost certain they will have to sell or bring in a deep-pocket investor. There may be a “Fire Sale.” Stay Tuned. R.I.P. Peter!
Discussion (14)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Mark’s lineup is certainly plausible, but I think unlikely.
Frankly, it also seems boring–pretty much a rehash of the ’23 lineup, but a year older. Lux, batting ninth, would be the “new guy,” except that he isn’t new. (Teoscar would be new–but I suspect he may receive better offers than what the Dodgers would give him to be a platoon player.)
So yeah, I’m hoping that Ohtani brings an extra jolt of energy. JDM had a fine season–but Ohtani is on a much higher level in terms of BA, on-base ability, power and speed.
Mark also expresses doubt that AF would sign any free agent who has a QO attached or insists on a long-term contract. I have my doubts about that, but it underscores why AF, in his quest for ace-level talent, would have to turn to the trade market to get guys who are under contract–a group that includes Burnes, Cease, Beiber, Glasnow.
Who should the Dodgers deal? Does it make sense to hold on to both Vargas and Busch if you envision them part-time players? Would you deal Cartaya or Rushing instead of Vargas or Busch? (I wouldn’t.)
Should be an interesting winter. So many options to consider.
How bad of a name is Woo Suk Go???? He is a Korean pitcher that might be posted next season.
Stan Kasten apparently likes the opt-out concept. In lieu of an extra contract year. six years instead of five, he offered Greinke an opt-out after year three. Greinke took the opt-out, and left after his third year here.
I would never offer anyone an opt-out; he leaves if he’s done very well, stays if he hasn’t, It gives the player far too much leverage. We know that the Dodgers somehow thought that Harper would take four years rather than the ten the Giants offered, and the 14 that the Philies over-offered, but which has worked out so far.
If you want Ohtani, offer him at least five years, they can work out the salary. If you mostly want to come up with the same team as this year, you can do that, and save a lot of money, though you won’t win a tile. There are owners out there who put up big money for star players. I know that the Dodgers gave Betts 13 years,. He is a great guy and fine player, but I think that was too many years for him. If Ohtani is all that. as the term goes, , pay him. Otherwise, go with Outman, who will hit around .265 with 25 HRs. and strike out a lot, like Muncy, whom i would not have signed, and]Teoscar. i think that LaDuca may be better than Outman, but it’s just a guess.
I would sign Ohtani for six years or so, sign or trade for a #1 pitcher, and a legitimate closer, and the team would have real shot at a title. I would try to sign JDM. I would not bring back Kike’ again. Treinen is not that good even at his best; we need a top closer, we haven’t developed one in six years. Just some thoughts.
Okay here is what I see Mark. Keep Betts in right field okay then move Lux to second base okay two positions nailed down. Then at first base you got Freeman and catcher Smith two more positions filled. Okay centerfield you have Outman almost every game but you do have Taylor still and Kiki so centerfield covered. Now let’s move to shortstop you go get Addames and Burnes from the Brewers okay Addames becomes your everyday shortstop then you still have Hernandez and Taylor and you traded Rojas to the Brewers so he will be gone. Burnes now becomes your number 1 starter okay. Now you put Muncy at third base okay and the backup for him you have Kiki, Taylor, then at DH you get Ohtani and then in Leftfielder you go and get Jorge Soler in Leftfielder with Taylor and Hernandez platooning your bench would have Taylor Hernandez Feduccia Heyward and a supeeise outfielder from spring ttaining why no Busch or Vargas because you use them ti gwy yii Addames and Burnes and another player or look at pirates and go after third baseman Bryan Hayes and Bedar you do that then muncy is thw DH ans you can get two starters in rotation . So get Burnes and Snell add them to Buehler Miller Pepiot and Sheehan okay Bedar could then be your closer so I think if they don’t go after Ohtani thank make a trade with pirates and Brewers that’s how I see it.
From MLBTR:
Like the Padres, the Dodgers have a reduced starting staff. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn are all now free agents. It’s unclear what the future holds for Urías given an ongoing domestic violence investigation, which could lead to his second such suspension of his career. Kershaw recently underwent shoulder surgery and has an uncertain path forward, perhaps having to miss the first half of 2024. Lynn’s home run troubles were pronounced enough that the Dodgers probably don’t want him back. Among guys still on the roster, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both recovering from surgery and may miss all of 2024.
That leaves them with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own surgery rehab, and then a batch of guys who were rookies coming into 2023: Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Nick Frasso and Landon Knack, who were just added to the roster yesterday, but adding some proven MLB arms into the mix is a sensible path forward. Heyman lists them as one of many clubs that are looking for multiple starters this winter.
Their payroll situation is far more pleasant than that of the Padres, as Roster Resource has them at just $142MM right now, along with a CBT number of $159MM. Non-tendering Ryan Yarbrough and Yency Almonte would cut both of those figures by over $5MM. It’s unknown how high they want to take the budget in 2024 but they’ve been as high as $280MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to stay under the luxury tax in 2024, the base threshold is $237MM next year, meaning they have around $80MM in wiggle room.
However, they may end up using a big chunk of that on Shohei Ohtani, with many observers considering them the most likely landing spot for the two-way superstar. Signing a player like Snell would also go against their track record. Despite their big payrolls, they haven’t really spent wildly on long-term deals for pitchers. In the past decade, they gave an eight-year deal to Kenta Maeda, but with a minimal guarantee of just $25MM. Since the Zack Greinke signing way back in 2012, they haven’t given a free agent pitcher more than $50MM.
Ohtani signing will come down to Ohtani. Most of us agree the Dodgers aren’t going to sign him to 10 years + and $400m+.
Ohtani is making somewhere in the range of $40-$60 million per year in endorsements. He’s not just the face of baseball in Japan, he is the face OF Japan, internationally. If he makes the proper investments he will be be worth $500m by the end of his career. Barring some freak career ending injury that ends his career very early; he will die a billionaire and one of the most prominent sports icons in the world. And that’s even if he plays baseball for free.
So money may not be his greatest concern. If he wants to win, the Dodgers will give him the best opportunity. In the second largest baseball market in MLB.
But who knows? Maybe he likes the city of Seattle and wants to follow in Ichiro’s footsteps. And they are a young and talented team. Maybe the prospect of transforming a franchise like the Mets (with the deepest pockets in baseball) intrigues him. Or maybe he will simply take the largest offer he receives.
I’m sure AF will make the best offer they feel makes sense. I haven’t a clue if Ohtani will take it.
I will add, I have some delusional friends who are Angels fans and they are confident he will stay with the Angels. That will happen when monkeys fly out of Mike Trout’s butt.
What is Fraudman and Uncle Gomez waiting on?!? The Phillies are busy getting better ! Why wait?!? Lets get better while we can!!!
Listened to Andrew Friedman’s interview with DodgerNation in its entirety and found the following statement regarding Shohei Ohtani extremely interesting:
“…especially as we try to blur lines internationally and grow this game, from a worldwide perspective, what he has done these last three years is historic, and obviously that is great for the game. You look at marketing dollars and opportunities in baseball compared to other sports and how far we lag behind that, Shohei has a chance to bust through that ceiling and create a lot of opportunity for other players behind him and as he does that will only help baseball continue to grow in popularity.”
I realize Friedman was asked to comment as a “fan of the game” and not as an executive of the Dodgers; however, we can safely deduce the following:
1. Clearly, the stakes are high and go beyond regional marketing dollars.
2. Friedman sees Ohtani as a potential ambassador for the game internationally.
3. The sport in general stands to benefit.
4. Friedman sees Shohei as a catalyst for other players.
While I still believe it is a long shot that the Dodgers end up signing Shohei Ohtani, Friedman’s view has soften my rather pessimistic view a bit. I wouldn’t be shocked if some common ground is found. Clearly, it is in MLB to have Ohtani play in a market that lends him the best opportunity to showcase his skills on the big stage. No other team provides that opportunity than the Dodgers. The real question at hand is how much value does Dodgers’ brass place Shohei’s internal marketing dollars? I believe MLB will put pressure on the Dodgers to make a strong push for Ohtani, but ultimately the decision will boil down to return on investment. Ugh, those pesky profit margins! (sarcasm)
Sure want to think Friedman and co will make one big splash in the free agent market and another in trade for front end starters and shy away from reclamation projects and hate to see whiff king Hernandez in the lineup. Love Lux in nine hole and sure hope he can stretch out a triple with the best of em
I just read that Ohtani donated 60,000 baseball gloves to kids in Japanese schools in order to promote the games popularity. Wow.
Thanks to whoever posted that link with the Andrew Friedman interview; that was a good listen (while having coffee and scrolling emails)
Not a big fan of analytics.
Honestly, does anyone seriously believe that analystics can tell a complete story when you are scouting players for a draft. Too many variables. High school or college, not all things equal.
Now that the shift is gone, the game is better. Too many teams spend far too much time trying to analyze this or that. Too much data. Even Max Muncy questioned whether the approach helped or hurt the Dodgers in the playoffs.
Just play the game. You can over analyze all this and I think teams do. I found it interesting how the Phillies tried to keep things simple compared to the Dodgers. That was according to Trea Turner. The Dodgers provided lots of information and data, maybe way too much.
Looking for an edge, promote contact, less strikeouts. Tired of seeing swings and misses killing rallies. Of course the Dodgers can point to all the runs they scored in 2023. But did it work against them in the playoffs. Muncy mentioned that the Dodgers willing to go deep in counts may have been a problem.
I just read the Dodgers ownership is pushing for a deal with Ohtani. It has been mentioned before. But it would make sense. Remember the pursuit of the trade with Boston for Nick Punto and company. That was pretty much done by ownership. This may be about more than just a baseball deal.
I’m guessing the Dodgers pursue the lefty from Japan, which would make sense. Signing Jack Flaherty wouldn’t be a surprise. Lot of upside. Friedman will ink a couple of pitchers who some may consider projects.
Friedman continues to mention pitchers. Is there one he would be willing to go beyond the comfort zone to acquire? That may mean five years. Probably. Better to do it this winter than try to fix it at the trade deadline. Less players available, more competition due to the expanded playoff format.
Then there is the trade market. Some possibilities there if they are indeed available.
Not sure about Hernandez. Too many strikeouts. Do they really need more whiffs with runners in scoring position? Busch in left makes sense. Not sure where Vargas plays, but if his bat bounces back, he’ll play somewhere.
Hard to know which direction the Dodgers go until the Ohtani signs with LA or somewhere else.
Mark –
Lots of good information and observations as the Dodgers prepare for 2024.
Just in the nick of time for me since I am getting together with two life-long buddies this Friday to discuss “Dodger baseball.”
LADT is a real asset in my “continuing education” program on a sport I have been following for over 70+ years!
Thanks for all your work to keep me relevant!
I saw something on MLB. Network last week I never thought I would see. Someone actually arguing about how analytics do not give you the whole story with Brian Kenny. I cannot remember for the life of me who it was, but his argument was very well thought out and even Kenny had to admit that analytics are not flawless. This guy was advocating the eye test. And I am pretty sure the discussion was centered around the differences in the two managers in the World Series. Bochy is a gut kind of guy. He goes by what he sees, not what some spreadsheet tells him. Lovullo is the exact opposite. Roberts is a spreadsheet guy. He follows the percentages. Now a lot of the time, it works. But when it doesn’t work, it is epic and that is when the fans get restless. I always liked Roberts when he was a player. Why? Not a lot of skill, but a desire to be good and help any team he was with. As a manager, he, like most humans, has failings. He has made some head scratching decisions in big games over the years, but we all know he is following the plan the front office has laid out for him. Look at the day-to-day lineups. They are based on percentages first, then they take into account what some player might have done against that particular pitcher. I doubt that will change. But Roberts is only as good as the players they give him. Hopefully this year, he gets a significant upgrade.