No Risk – No Reward!
Most fans do not read too much into the Dodgers’ pickup of Jack Suwinski on waivers from the Pirates, but he could actually make the Opening Day roster (with a good spring) as he is out of Minor League options. He may actually have an outside chance at breaking camp with Los…
Most fans do not read too much into the Dodgers’ pickup of Jack Suwinski on waivers from the Pirates, but he could actually make the Opening Day roster (with a good spring) as he is out of Minor League options. He may actually have an outside chance at breaking camp with Los Angeles due to his ability to play center field. He hit 26 HR in 2023, but like James Outman, his strikeout rate is just borderline stupid! If anyone can unlock his hitting potential, it is the Dodgers’ system, with Robert Von Socyoc and Aaron Bates.
Because utility man Tommy Edman will start the year on the injured list, the Dodgers are lacking center-field depth behind projected starter Andy Pages. They have spoken about getting Hyeseong Kim some reps in center, but he has primarily played the infield in his career, and his defensive metrics in CF are not good… Defensive specialist Michael Siani is also on the 40-man roster, but his bat has not played at the big league level.
Ryan Ward is trade bait, and the signing of Suwinski pretty much cements that. The Dodgers are giving him an opportunity to show out.
OLD FRIENDS
Old Friend, Miguel Vargas is being widely identified as a breakout candidate for the 2026 season. Following an underwhelming 2024 campaign in which he struggled to make an impact with the White Sox after a trade from the Dodgers, Vargas turned a corner in 2025, leading analysts to predict a significant leap forward in 2026. I have always said that progress is not linear, but I have always touted his tools. Here is why analysts and projections are high on a Miguel Vargas breakout:
- Improved 2025 Performance: After struggling to a .175 average from 2022–2024, Vargas rebounded in 2025 to hit .234 with 16 home runs and 60 RBI in 138 games.
- Strong Second Half 2025: Vargas finished the 2025 season strong, hitting .277 with four home runs and 17 RBI over his last 112 at-bats following an All-Star break turnaround.
- Physical Changes and Elite Contact Skills: Vargas reported to 2026 Spring Training in better physical shape, adding muscle to address weight loss issues from previous seasons. He maintains a solid 9.8% walk rate and an improved 17.6% strikeout rate.
- Opportunity and Role: He is expected to start every day at third base for the White Sox in 2026 and hit in the middle of the lineup, providing high-volume opportunities for production.
- High-Value Fantasy Sleeper: With an ADP (Average Draft Position) often north of 250, he is considered a very low-risk, high-reward “sleeper” or “deep league” pick for 2026.
- Elite Statistical Backing: One comprehensive analysis (SPARK Score) ranks him as the #1 breakout candidate for 2026 among all young non-All-Stars, noting he improved in virtually every measurable category last season.
- Guaranteed Playing Time: Vargas is projected to be the Chicago White Sox’s everyday third baseman and hit in the middle of their order.
- Underlying Metrics: In 2025, he posted a career-high 40.5% hard-hit rate and a significantly improved 17.6% strikeout rate.
- Fantasy “Sleeper” Status: He is a frequent “sleeper” pick in fantasy baseball circles, with projections suggesting he could reach 23–25 home runs and a batting average over .270 if he stays healthy.
Key Perspectives on his 2026 Potential
- The Bull Case: Proponents argue that his 2025 “step forward” was just the beginning. They highlight his improved bat-to-ball skills (83.4% contact rate) and believe his home run-to-flyball ratio (7.6%) was unlucky and is due for a massive positive regression.
- The Bear Case: Some skeptics remain cautious, noting that while his 2025 was better, he was still only a “league-average” hitter (101 wRC+). They point to his below-average bat speed (70.6 mph) as a potential ceiling on his power breakout.
- Clubhouse Role: Vargas has expressed high personal excitement for 2026, stating his goal is to play all 162 games at third base for the White Sox.
Miggy is no longer a Dodger, but I root for him as I root for other ex-Dodgers, such as Michael Busch, Caleb Ferguson, and Keibert Ruiz. Except when they play the Dodgers. What about Alex Verdugo, you may ask? Here was Alex, the last I saw him.
Baseball Prospectus
Here’s what BP says about the Dodgers:
LA Dodgers (105-57, 11 more wins than the next best team)
— Baseball Prospectus
Listen, I understand. Everyone thinks the Dodgers are going to be very good in 2026 and PECOTA is no exception, but I wanted to include them as an added nugget because they’ve kind of broken the system. Baseball projections are supposed to end with most teams bunched up together because that’s just how baseball works: the small talent disparity between most squads and the sport’s inherently random nature come together to create tons of equality. The second-best team in our projections, the Seattle Mariners, come out with about 11 wins more than the 14th-best team… which is, more or less, the same gap between the Dodgers and Mariners. The system projects the Dodgers to have close to a 40% chance to reach the World Series outright and 22% odds to win it all, both nearly twice as much as anyone else.
This is not supposed to be possible, for one team to be so clearly head and shoulders above the rest. And it’s not just Kyle Tucker! As strong of a projection as a 135 DRC+ and 4.5 WARP is, the Dodgers would still be on another planet relative to the rest without him—Tucker just makes them all the more ridiculous. Ohtani is Ohtani, projecting for a combined 9.5 WARP between hitting (6.4 WARP as a DH) and pitching. Mookie Betts gets a bounceback projection that amounts to roughly 5 WARP, and the system might actually be underselling Will Smith a little. Freeman and Muncy should both be worth three or more wins, enough to make up for the misery of playing meager two-win players such as Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernández, and Andy Pages everyday. The outrage!
But the real craziness is on the pitching side. Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, Glasnow, Sheehan; the highest projected DRA- of that group is Glasnow’s 90, which would make him an excellent no. 2 for most teams. Roki Sasaki (107 DRA-) is no darling of the system and it just doesn’t matter because PECOTA is more than fine with the depth starters too. (One of them could very easily be trade bait if the Dodgers seek another outfielder.) They also signed Edwin Díaz (70 DRA-) and have like 17 relievers with average or better projections, Tanner Scott among them.
The consolation? The Dodgers are a very veteran team; almost every regular is over 30 and a handful are well into their mid-thirties. Maybe there’s only a couple more years of this to be subjected to. The bad news for that hope? Tucker and Yamamoto are probably still peaking right now. Ohtani exists. The even worse news for those hoping the Dodgers will just go away? Our Top 101 prospects list and organizational prospect rankings. Buckle up, folks.
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Discussion (63)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Siani is a defensive replacement, no more no less. I don’t understand why Call can’t play CF. The prospects are for real. Ferris & Hope are both blue-chips.
Call can play CF, but he’s just average.
Kopp still looks raw. Glad we protected him but the stuff needs to tighten up a bit. Duran looked good.
1B Busch 2B McKinstry SS Seager 3B Vargas C Ruiz RF Raley CF Bellinger LF Cruz DH Alvarex Feduccia, Vedugo, Pederson, Lux, Santana, Farmer Eovaldi, Kremer, Holmes, Pepiot, Uceta, Jansen, Fischer Almost a full roster of Dodger drafties and signings still floating around out there in MLB. Probably missing a couple guys. I don’t think Friedman got Eovaldi, Santana, or Jansen into Blue though.
Who is Cruz?
O’Neil
Suwinski is low-risk gamble. A good signing. He impressed early in his career. Yes, he could make the 26-man roster ahead of Call, Siani, etc if he has an impressive spring. He’s kind of the OF version of Senzel–young veterans trying to get back to the show. If Miggy Ro gets hurt, Senzel could get the call ahead of Freeland and become Max’s platoon partner at 3B
Add Dustin May to the alumni staff.
“The Cubs are signing outfielder Michael Conforto, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The terms of the deal are not yet known. The Cubs have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding 40-man move if Conforto is being added on a major league deal, but that can be easily accomplished by transferring right-hander Shelby Miller to the 60-day injured list”. We get Tucker and the Cubs get Conforto. Nice deal!
Ah, thanks
I can absolutely see a scenario where Senzel makes the team.
That is how Kopp has always looked. If he could throw strikes….
With Kike on the 60 day , does it open up a spot for either Senzel or Suwinski break spring training with the team? Suwinski has always perked my interest. Seems like he had some good games against the Dodgers in the past. His power would be a welcome addition to the bench. Senzel would add versatility and potentially a better hitter than Suwinski. Wouldn’t it be just “Dodger like” for one of those guys to be a valuable addition to an already great team? Getting a great vibe about Teo! It’s early, he looks great so far. Physically? Really good! Mentally? Not worrying about his health and the trade rumors, only makes things that much better for one of the most liked guys in baseball! Graterol just may be one of those players who never ever is healthy. Hope that isn’t the case, it sure seems like it. If healthy, he can be a monster! Lastly, Catman. Hopefully he gets another opportunity with someone. Love watching him pitch. Somewhere like Kansas City or Baltimore. Just not in the national league!
It is a minor league deal according to MLBTR with a major league invite.
It is a minor league deal according to MLBTR with a major league invite.
3:05 PM ET Mariners (90-72) Dodgers (93-69) SP Logan Gilbert R 0-0 .00 ERA SP Landon Knack R 0-0 .00 ERA Confirmed Lineup 2B Hyeseong Kim L LF T. Hernandez R CF Andy Pages R C D. Rushing L 3B S. Espinal R SS A. Freeland S DH Keston Hiura R RF Zach Ehrhard R 1B James Tibbs L 82° Wind 6 mph R-L
Blizzard conditions in Connecticut today.
Dodgers Freddie Freeman and Wife Chelsea Announce They Are Expecting Fourth Child
The Los Angeles Dodgers have reportedly agreed to a deal with 21-year-old Cuban right-handed pitcher Yadier Zamora as of February 20, 2026. The agreement is pending a physical and is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks. Player Profile and Scouting A native of Las Tunas, Cuba, Zamora is a high-upside arm who has been training in Mexico with the Thompson Sport Agency. Physical Stature: He stands at 6’3″ and is noted for his physical projection within the MLB system. Velocity: His fastball consistently sits between 93–97 mph, reaching a peak of 97 mph during his most recent tryouts. Repertoire: In addition to his high-velocity fastball, Zamora features a slider, splitter, and changeup. Experience: He previously gained experience pitching in Cuba’s Serie Nacional for his home province of Las Tunas before leaving the country in May 2025.
https://youtu.be/25L2NsySJOM?si=-CpSWoIvDDl4zZ7_ Thought this was a good piece on the Dodgers prospects. Sorry, if this has been shared before.
Just watched the interview. Thanks for sharing. The Dodger’s future is extremely bright with some REALLY talented young players in the pipeline.
AF might have lost 4 picks in the upcoming MLB First Year Player’s Draft this coming July by signing Diaz and Tucker ,but is more than making up for it by keep signing quality International players.He will eventually be headed to the Hall of Fame as one of the BEST, if not the BEST executive in all of baseball.
From that link, I’m guessing Sirota joins dodgers mid-season and from the preseason to date, I’m thinking Freeland starts the year on the Dodgers.
What is Sirota’s injury? Same as before?
No injury. Just assuming he’ll stay in minors when the season opens.