No Risk – No Reward!

Most fans do not read too much into the Dodgers’ pickup of Jack Suwinski on waivers from the Pirates, but he could actually make the Opening Day roster (with a good spring) as he is out of Minor League options. He may actually have an outside chance at breaking camp with Los Angeles due to his ability to play center field. He hit 26 HR in 2023, but like James Outman, his strikeout rate is just borderline stupid! If anyone can unlock his hitting potential, it is the Dodgers’ system, with Robert Von Socyoc and Aaron Bates.

Because utility man Tommy Edman will start the year on the injured list, the Dodgers are lacking center-field depth behind projected starter Andy Pages. They have spoken about getting Hyeseong Kim some reps in center, but he has primarily played the infield in his career, and his defensive metrics in CF are not good… Defensive specialist Michael Siani is also on the 40-man roster, but his bat has not played at the big league level.

Ryan Ward is trade bait, and the signing of Suwinski pretty much cements that. The Dodgers are giving him an opportunity to show out.

OLD FRIENDS

Old Friend, Miguel Vargas is being widely identified as a breakout candidate for the 2026 season. Following an underwhelming 2024 campaign in which he struggled to make an impact with the White Sox after a trade from the Dodgers, Vargas turned a corner in 2025, leading analysts to predict a significant leap forward in 2026. I have always said that progress is not linear, but I have always touted his tools. Here is why analysts and projections are high on a Miguel Vargas breakout:

• Improved 2025 Performance: After struggling to a .175 average from 2022–2024, Vargas rebounded in 2025 to hit .234 with 16 home runs and 60 RBI in 138 games.
• Strong Second Half 2025: Vargas finished the 2025 season strong, hitting .277 with four home runs and 17 RBI over his last 112 at-bats following an All-Star break turnaround.
• Physical Changes and Elite Contact Skills: Vargas reported to 2026 Spring Training in better physical shape, adding muscle to address weight loss issues from previous seasons. He maintains a solid 9.8% walk rate and an improved 17.6% strikeout rate.
• Opportunity and Role: He is expected to start every day at third base for the White Sox in 2026 and hit in the middle of the lineup, providing high-volume opportunities for production.
• High-Value Fantasy Sleeper: With an ADP (Average Draft Position) often north of 250, he is considered a very low-risk, high-reward “sleeper” or “deep league” pick for 2026. 
• Elite Statistical Backing: One comprehensive analysis (SPARK Score) ranks him as the #1 breakout candidate for 2026 among all young non-All-Stars, noting he improved in virtually every measurable category last season.
• Guaranteed Playing Time: Vargas is projected to be the Chicago White Sox’s everyday third baseman and hit in the middle of their order.
• Underlying Metrics: In 2025, he posted a career-high 40.5% hard-hit rate and a significantly improved 17.6% strikeout rate.
• Fantasy “Sleeper” Status: He is a frequent “sleeper” pick in fantasy baseball circles, with projections suggesting he could reach 23–25 home runs and a batting average over .270 if he stays healthy. 

Key Perspectives on his 2026 Potential

• The Bull Case: Proponents argue that his 2025 “step forward” was just the beginning. They highlight his improved bat-to-ball skills (83.4% contact rate) and believe his home run-to-flyball ratio (7.6%) was unlucky and is due for a massive positive regression.
• The Bear Case: Some skeptics remain cautious, noting that while his 2025 was better, he was still only a “league-average” hitter (101 wRC+). They point to his below-average bat speed (70.6 mph) as a potential ceiling on his power breakout.
• Clubhouse Role: Vargas has expressed high personal excitement for 2026, stating his goal is to play all 162 games at third base for the White Sox. 

Miggy is no longer a Dodger, but I root for him as I root for other ex-Dodgers, such as Michael Busch, Caleb Ferguson, and Keibert Ruiz. Except when they play the Dodgers. What about Alex Verdugo, you may ask? Here was Alex, the last I saw him.

Baseball Prospectus

Here’s what BP says about the Dodgers:

LA Dodgers (105-57, 11 more wins than the next best team)
Listen, I understand. Everyone thinks the Dodgers are going to be very good in 2026 and PECOTA is no exception, but I wanted to include them as an added nugget because they’ve kind of broken the system. Baseball projections are supposed to end with most teams bunched up together because that’s just how baseball works: the small talent disparity between most squads and the sport’s inherently random nature come together to create tons of equality. The second-best team in our projections, the Seattle Mariners, come out with about 11 wins more than the 14th-best team… which is, more or less, the same gap between the Dodgers and Mariners. The system projects the Dodgers to have close to a 40% chance to reach the World Series outright and 22% odds to win it all, both nearly twice as much as anyone else.
This is not supposed to be possible, for one team to be so clearly head and shoulders above the rest. And it’s not just Kyle Tucker! As strong of a projection as a 135 DRC+ and 4.5 WARP is, the Dodgers would still be on another planet relative to the rest without him—Tucker just makes them all the more ridiculous. Ohtani is Ohtani, projecting for a combined 9.5 WARP between hitting (6.4 WARP as a DH) and pitching. Mookie Betts gets a bounceback projection that amounts to roughly 5 WARP, and the system might actually be underselling Will Smith a little. Freeman and Muncy should both be worth three or more wins, enough to make up for the misery of playing meager two-win players such as Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernández, and Andy Pages everyday. The outrage!
But the real craziness is on the pitching side. Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, Glasnow, Sheehan; the highest projected DRA- of that group is Glasnow’s 90, which would make him an excellent no. 2 for most teams. Roki Sasaki (107 DRA-) is no darling of the system and it just doesn’t matter because PECOTA is more than fine with the depth starters too. (One of them could very easily be trade bait if the Dodgers seek another outfielder.) They also signed Edwin Díaz (70 DRA-) and have like 17 relievers with average or better projections, Tanner Scott among them.
The consolation? The Dodgers are a very veteran team; almost every regular is over 30 and a handful are well into their mid-thirties. Maybe there’s only a couple more years of this to be subjected to. The bad news for that hope? Tucker and Yamamoto are probably still peaking right now. Ohtani exists. The even worse news for those hoping the Dodgers will just go away? Our Top 101 prospects list and organizational prospect rankings. Buckle up, folks.

— Baseball Prospectus